Player Discussion Alexis Lafrenière

[Leonardo87]

I agree with Laf getting scratched. Just because he was a 1stOA doesn’t make him immune to being healthy scratched. He just turned 21 yo and is still developing. How he reacts to it, will be the key. If he is not hungry and motivated when he gets back, and sulks, then there is major concern.

Sadly, Laf was drafted by one of the most impatient franchises in the league. You re-sign Kreider, and then bring in Panarin, it really leaves Laf as the odd man out on LW. But it‘s not like he has not had opportunity in the Top 6.

I’m also bold enough to say, the Rangers really had no business drafting Laf that year. The NHL came up with that crazy lottery scenario and playoff buy in round due to the pandemic. Rangers were a bubble team and not even a bottom 10 team in the league that year.

 

[SA16]

i think he replied somewhere that he wanted trochek to be moved to PP2 and laff to PP1. i replied that trochek is 2nd on the team with 7 PPG's and that if anyone should be moved it should be bread who only has 2.

but demoting bread would also not be good as almost all of mika's PPG's were bread aided.

So if anyone should be moved it should be Panarin who is 4th in the league in 5v4 assists and 3rd in primary assists?

 

[TheDirtyH]

I absolutely agree with this. My line of thinking is more “patience is required before you can actually call him a bust and he may breakout as a 70 point physical winger down the road, but he’s kind of a bust for us” and what I mean by that is, with a 1OA and a group like prime Zib, prime (at the time of draft, at least) Bread, prime Kreider, Norris Fox, Vezina Shesty, you pretty much HAVE TO produce and make an immediate impact to be a success for the team. You can still go on to have a successful career at virtually any age as long as you can keep yourself in the league and getting opportunities, but in order to be a success for the team’s situation, a guy on an ELC coming in and being able to make an immediate impact is what puts a roster with solid pieces in place over the top.

Now, this part is moot, but more of an intellectual exercise.

Let’s pretend we hadn’t signed Trochek and had cap space - let’s say it’s last summer. That’s just for the purpose of skipping the how we afford this questions - but since it’s a thought exercise, it really doesn’t matter.

You have a 21 year old who was a #1OA pick and has yet to find his game at the NHL level. He may, but he certainly may not. He’s yet to hit 35 points.

There is a 24 year old former top 10 pick out there who may not re-sign with his current club and has one more year of team control and is being shopped. He’s scored 45+ points a few times and broken 60 last year.

HFNYR says no way in hell they would trade Lafreniere for him. Lafreniere just has SO much potential - I’d hate to trade him for a 60 point player and then he blows up and he’s a 90 point star winger somewhere else.

Okay. First, that may happen but the odds of it happening are low and getting lower. Second, what are the odds of it happening here? What will change in the next year or two that will foster that explosion? But finally, what good is it if Lafreniere explodes into even a 75+ point winger when he’s 25, Shesterkin is 31 and on a much different contract, Kreider is 35, Zib is 34, etc. Based on how the team is constructed, wouldn’t the 60 point 24 year old who can contribute right now be more valuable to a team with prime Shesterkin and Fox, a 100 point winger and a 1C? Can’t the 24 year old maybe progress even more and be a 70 point player? Do we really think Laf is going to be that much more than a 60-70 point player? Even if you do hold that hope - isn’t 60-70 points NOW more beneficial than Laf being a 90 point player in 3-4 years?

Laf may not be a bust. But relative to our time line the pick is a bust. The “he has so much potential, he may be a 90 point player some day” thinking is so flawed. If we have KK, Laf, Chytil, etc. who we’re all committed to being patient with for another 3+ years because at that point they may all be 70 point guys, we should be trading Zib, Panarin, Kreider. No questions. If we want to make the playoffs and win a Cup with Shesty and Zib and Kreider, we don’t have the luxury of being patient for 5+ years for our lottery picks to become impact players. We’d be better served with players who MAY have a lower ceiling but are already having an impact right now.

It’s exactly as you said @HockeyBasedNYC - you can’t have both.

The only two things that problematize your point here are 1) the salary cap and 2) the actual playoff performance that this group has to their names.

On the first point: the rangers signing massive extensions to a veteran core signifies counting on their high picks to pop immediately. I'm not sure I disagree outright with this, but it does introduce different and just as potentially crippling problems for the team moving forward. Panarin, Zibanejad, Trouba, Kreider, Trocheck, and Goodrow currently account for 53% of the teams cap. Add in the dead weight of buyouts and youre nearing 60%. If Kakko alone were to have excelled to the standards we expected, how much would he have cost us this summer to re-up? If Lafreniere were to as well, how would we manage to fit them both in without decimating the roster somewhere else. Moving on from any of those players listed (aside, maybe from goodrow via buyout, and potentially Kreider) is a pipedream. And if you gain in this alternate reality a team with two top line wingers (likely demanding between 6 and 9mil per year given what we're seeing of the RFA market since the pandemic), you have to lose considerable depth to keep them, if you can do so at all. Chytil would have to go, Lindgren (our best at a position of considerable weakness), Kreider--thats at minimum. We're going to stare this problem in the face this summer as is because Chytil is playing his way to a sizeable raise.

So that's all to say that I don't think it's safe to assume that the roster construction to this point reflects some failed expectations for the kids. If anything, it's the underperformance of the kids that has allowed the rangers to continue throwing money at the older core.

On the second point: the rangers first taste of the playoffs since their 'build' began, was by all accounts very successful. And as it relates to your points, it was owed in large part to the emergence of Lafreniere and Kakko as secondary scorers, and certainly wasn't undermined by their performances in any way. What killed them in the end was their 11million dollar invisible man and his sidekick. So we've actually seen these kids be impact players for the games that count the most, and it still didn't propel this lineup to a championship.

 

[PANARIN BREAD FAN]

So if anyone should be moved it should be Panarin who is 4th in the league in 5v4 assists and 3rd in primary assists?

i only used panarin as an example because that dude kept stressing that laff has as many EV goals as the others to justify getting PP1 time. so i disregarded the assists factor and focused on just PP goal scoring. so just on that criteria bread should be demoted while that dude was saying it should be trochek.

 

[BobMarleyNYR]

i think he replied somewhere that he wanted trochek to be moved to PP2 and laff to PP1. i replied that trochek is 2nd on the team with 7 PPG's and that if anyone should be moved it should be bread who only has 2.

but demoting bread would also not be good as almost all of mika's PPG's were bread aided.

Like somebody left out trail of breadcrumbs.

 

[PANARIN BREAD FAN]

those 17 goals from last season. other than that fancy beauty vs det all of them could have been scored the same exact way by anyone. even hands of stone copp (i still wish he was here) could of done the same shit.

laffy < or = to:
ryan donato 2.0
sonny milano pre-capitals

change my mind

 

[Mike in Houston]

Elmer Fudd confirms Lafrenière is back in the lineup tomorrow.

 

[bhamill]

those 17 goals from last season. other than that fancy beauty vs det all of them could have been scored the same exact way by anyone. even hands of stone copp (i still wish he was here) could of done the same shit.

laffy < or = to:
ryan donato 2.0
sonny milano pre-capitals

change my mind

19 goals, no?
But sure anyone who made the plays to get to those spots where they have the opportunity to score those goals mostly could, though how many empty nets do we see get missed, hahah. The fact that not everyone does score 19 even strength goals that “look easy” should clue you into the fact that it’s a skill to be in the right place at the right time, and actually hit the net.
Your post is akin to saying anyone could make the majority of Shesty’s “ordinary” saves, when in reality the ability to be in position to make a “looks easy” save is a very refined skill.

 

[BobMarleyNYR]

Elmer Fudd confirms Lafrenière is back in the lineup tomorrow.

He reminds me of this Cajun character named Dale in the Green mile…

 

[ChesterNimitz]

I agree with Laf getting scratched. Just because he was a 1stOA doesn’t make him immune to being healthy scratched. He just turned 21 yo and is still developing. How he reacts to it, will be the key. If he is not hungry and motivated when he gets back, and sulks, then there is major concern.

Sadly, Laf was drafted by one of the most impatient franchises in the league. You re-sign Kreider, and then bring in Panarin, it really leaves Laf as the odd man out on LW. But it‘s not like he has not had opportunity in the Top 6.

I’m also bold enough to say, the Rangers really had no business drafting Laf that year. The NHL came up with that crazy lottery scenario and playoff buy in round due to the pandemic. Rangers were a bubble team and not even a bottom 10 team in the league that year.

Impatient or not, would we be having this conversation if the Rangers would have drafted the far more dynamic Stutzle?

 

[Leonardo87]

Impatient or not, would we be having this conversation if the Rangers would have drafted the far more dynamic Stutzle?

I know the debate out there is if prospects around the league would struggle here. I think it’s a combination. I do think Kakko and Laf would find more success and production if they were drafted by a bottom team. But how much not sure.

When you draft a 1stOA LW but had re-signed a vet LW and signed a 11 million dollar LW in Free Agency, there is no doubt, development takes a back seat to winning.

Rangers aren’t rebuilding , but they can develop players while trying to win but winning takes priority over player development which is why Laf was scratched but it was also to send a message to him that he needs to be more consistent.

 

[effen]

The idea that force feeding Laf PP time and sheltered OZ time would have made him a better player is ludicrous.

It would have made for a prettier stat sheet which is not. The. Same. Thing.

He's been playing the power play for a decade before he got to the NHL, it's not like 5 on 4 is some new concept that needs a ton of reps.

 

[Nickmo82]

No issue with benching the kid as a wake up call etc. My issue is why are "vets" seemingly immune to such treatment?

 

[RangersFan1994]

No issue with benching the kid as a wake up call etc. My issue is why are "vets" seemingly immune to such treatment?

Cause of their cap hit and I bet can’t become a healthy scratch is in their contract.

 

[LokiDog]

Cause of their cap hit and I bet can’t become a healthy scratch is in their contract.

The dreaded NSC - No Scratch Clause.

 

[RangersFan1994]

The dreaded NSC - No Scratch Clause.

I am sure that is in their contract

 

[xsniper11x]

So if anyone should be moved it should be Panarin who is 4th in the league in 5v4 assists and 3rd in primary assists?

Yes. Not because he isn’t still a great player. He is. He also creates the most cap space, fails to makes his linemates better, is on an obvious decline (certainly at 5v5), plays the one position we have significant organizational depth, offers little leadership, is another slow footed playmaker on a team full of them, and most importantly, is gone in 3 yrs either way. He’s unfortunately a poor fit for how this team is constructed.

You can argue Kreider or Trouba for sure, but Bread is the one that checks the most boxes. In reality, 2 of those 3 will likely be gone over the next 3 yrs.

 

[xsniper11x]

The idea that force feeding Laf PP time and sheltered OZ time would have made him a better player is ludicrous.

It would have made for a prettier stat sheet which is not. The. Same. Thing.

He's been playing the power play for a decade before he got to the NHL, it's not like 5 on 4 is some new concept that needs a ton of reps.

That’s a fair point and is a big difference bt making highlight reels on a terrible team (Zegras) and becoming a core piece to a winner. However, you also can’t discount what the stat sheet you can do for a young player (or any player’s) confidence.

The answer is likely somewhere in between, but I find it hard to believe Laf and Kakko wouldn’t be further along in their development on lower quality teams. Just look at our own Dcore, where our vets were awful and the kids were force fed minutes out of necessity. This isn’t a coincidence and certainly accelerated their development.

 

[effen]

That’s a fair point and is a big difference bt making highlight reels on a terrible team (Zegras) and becoming a core piece to a winner. However, you also can’t discount what the stat sheet you can do for a young player (or any player’s) confidence.

The answer is likely somewhere in between, but I find it hard to believe Laf and Kakko wouldn’t be further along in their development on lower quality teams. Just look at our own Dcore, where our vets were awful and the kids were force fed minutes out of necessity. This isn’t a coincidence and certainly accelerated their development.

Sure, but PP minutes are easy minutes.

That said, the org is gonna need to take care of the kids at contract time. Because this f***s with their counting stats. Which I'm not really worried about, no one ever accused the Rangers of being cheap.

Though Sather had moments of flexing on guys for no reason, that was years ago.

 

[Filip Chytil]

The dreaded NSC - No Scratch Clause.

Kravtsov has the NHC- No Hartford Clause

Mika also has a NSC but that's the No Steak Clause

 

[LORDE]

Not sure how that’s relevant.

How is it not? This org has been awful at winning cups since their inception and certainly since 1994 when the Sather plan was established

It’s still VERY much the mandate

Rebuild but go out and give Bread the most lucrative contract.

It’s a rudderless ship and they just try to BUY a team instead of drafting and developing one

 

[huerter]

How is it not? This org has been awful at winning cups since their inception and certainly since 1994 and the Sather plan was established

It’s still VERY much the mandate

Rebuild but go out and give Bread the most lucrative contract.

It’s a rudderless ship and they just try to BUY a team instead of drafting and developing one

Do you prefer the JD plan of giving Gaudreau a lucrative contract or the Gorton plan of screwing up his #1 pick's rookie year...or are Dolan and Sather influencing those decisions as well?

 

[TopShelfSnipes]

Impatient or not, would we be having this conversation if the Rangers would have drafted the far more dynamic Stutzle?

Yes, because this organization has given me no reason to be optimistic about its ability to develop a young scoring forward in less than a decade. I have been following this franchise for close to 30 years now and cannot remember a scoring forward/high prospect who has ever burst onto the scene with immediate results that sustained it and became a legitimate star.

There has always been this organizational philosophy which many of the fans regurgitate that says, young players have to wait their time, pay their dues, etc. and we are quick to celebrate retreads who come here and exceed expectations but also eager to pile up on skill players. This organization has run more skill players out of town than I can remember. Jagr, Gaborik, the people calling for Panarin's head, but mediocre gritty players can do no wrong which is why this organization's favorite player archetype is the 50 point two way center who fights 1-2 times a year. The Brandon Dubinsky/Ryan Callahan era is indicative of this organization's values, nothing against either of them, but they should not be your main contributors - they are support players.

This organization routinely pays 50 point players to be 70+ point players, and has gotten generationally lucky with Lundqvist and now Shesterkin to hide many of their faults. We are and have been the 1990s Buffalo Sabres (post Mogilny and LaFontaine) for the last 15 years. In recent years, we've modified that to add *ONE* superstar player who can score 70+ points, who is expected to shoulder the entire offensive load, who is always a mercenary paid a huge contract, and who is usually the first person the fans want to get rid of - see Gaborik, Richards, and now Panarin - when they can't produce in the playoffs under much more demanding conditions that require highly skilled linemates or team scoring depth to overcome.

So, to answer your question, Tim Stutzle would have been buried on the depth chart, not seen PP time, had a disappointing rookie season where his defense was bad, and half the fanbase would have been calling for him to be sent to Hartford, a third would be looking to trade him, 10% would want him to see PP time, and the rest would be talking about what over the hill free agent we should sign to bring out his abilities. For the organization, all of those would be considered viable options except additional PP time, and you can roll a dice to see what the organization actually decides.

I have no faith in this organization's ability to develop a top forward prospects until...they develop a top forward prospect into a HHOFer.

Notwithstanding expansion teams (which have only been around for some of my hockey watching history and have had less of a window to do so), I have watched a player from nearly every team grow into a HHOFer and play a significant chunk of games in that organization from the following:
ANA - Kariya
BOS - Neely, maybe Bergeron someday
BUF - Andreychuk
CAL - Iginla
CAR - Francis
CHI - Savard, maybe Kane someday
COL - Forsberg, Sakic
DAL - Modano
DET - Fedorov, Yzerman
EDM - Gretzky, Messier, Kurri, maybe McDavid
FLA
LA - Robitaille, maybe Kopitar someday
MTL
NJ
NYI - LaFontaine
NYR
OTT - Alfredsson
PHI - Lindros
PHO/WPG - Hawerchuk
PIT - Lemieux, Jagr, Crosby someday
SJ
STL
TB - Stamkos, maybe Kucherov someday
TOR - Sundin, maybe Auston Matthews or Mitch Marner someday
VAN - Bure, Sedins
WSH - Gartner, Ovechkin

Notithstanding expansion teams, that leaves: FLA, MTL, NJ, NYR, SJ, and STL.

NJ and STL are the only of those teams that won a Cup in this millenium and NJ did it developing a HHOF goalie, HHOF defenseman (Niedermayer), acquiring another HHOF defenseman (Stevens), building around team defense, and having a forward that is just shy of the HHOF in Elias.

And STL turned Brett Hull into an elite sniper, but I'm not counting him since he started his career in Calgary (same reason I didn't count MSL for Tampa or Thornton for SJ).

So realistically, our "company" in terms of 0 Cups, and 0 HHOF developed forwards, are Montreal, San Jose, and Florida.

There's some debate if you want to omit Florida and San Jose as "expansion teams," but I included Anaheim and Tampa Bay so I had to include them as well.

That leaves us and Montreal. We have 1994. They have 1993.

That's why I have 0 faith in this organization to develop a top forward prospect.

 

[ReddestRum]

No issue with benching the kid as a wake up call etc. My issue is why are "vets" seemingly immune to such treatment?

What do you think a team owner does to a coach who moves to bench a player that is an NHL veteran, that takes up a sizeable portion of the cap, that the fans pay to see play, and is also one of the top point producers on the team, because they had a few bad games.

Yes, people, being an NHL veteran with a successful career and tenure will afford you some perks in the league. Just like a lot of jobs IRL!

 

[LORDE]

Do you prefer the JD plan of giving Gaudreau a lucrative contract or the Gorton plan of screwing up his #1 pick's rookie year...or are Dolan and Sather influencing those decisions as well?

I guess I’d take anything other than Sather yes

Gorton screwing his #1 is debatable
The Johnny Hockey contract will be a time will tell

I don’t want Sather or his “brilliant” theories anywhere NEAR THIS TEAM

EVER