Player Discussion Alexis Lafrenière: Part III

[CupSeeker]

It's incredible how almost every other #1 overall pick for the past 2 decades has somehow stepped produced more than Lafreniere, all the while being under the legal drinking age. Not to mention, he was old for his draft class. I can't really speak to the flashes they may have shown however, I think it's reasonable to say that they all showed more than him as well. Spare me the rationalizations.

How many were drafted by teams with the top 6 we have? and received zero PP time?

 

[Synergy27]

From Edge in this thread back in mid-Dec (page 12)

For what it's worth, the majority of opinions I've encountered or heard of second-hand around the league don't express much concern or confusion. The general feeling being that usage and the way the Rangers are constructed (which is very unique) significantly impacts some of the plateaus that some fans are expecting to see.

To paraphrase what one scout told me, "if these guys are playing 18 minutes on the first line and getting 3 or 4 minutes on the powerplay every game, no one is focused on the flaws and works in progress. But when you don't have that, suddenly it's a lot easier to focus on what you don't have rather than what you do."

Appreciate that. Thank you.

 

[SA16]

From Edge in this thread back in mid-Dec (page 12)

For what it's worth, the majority of opinions I've encountered or heard of second-hand around the league don't express much concern or confusion. The general feeling being that usage and the way the Rangers are constructed (which is very unique) significantly impacts some of the plateaus that some fans are expecting to see.

To paraphrase what one scout told me, "if these guys are playing 18 minutes on the first line and getting 3 or 4 minutes on the powerplay every game, no one is focused on the flaws and works in progress. But when you don't have that, suddenly it's a lot easier to focus on what you don't have rather than what you do."

If they were playing 18 minutes on the first line and 3/4 minutes on the PP every game people would be more focused on it because the lack of production would be more glaring. At least this way in a depth role people have the excuse "Well if they were played more..."

 

[Synergy27]

If they were playing 18 minutes on the first line and 3/4 minutes on the PP every game people would be more focused on it because the lack of production would be more glaring. At least this way in a depth role people have the excuse "Well if they were played more..."

How do you post this here and then scoff at me for suggesting that VK might be better in Kakko’s role in another thread?

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Send Kakko with him.

I think Kakko would require waivers. Maybe he's so bad he wouldn't even get claimed though.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Generally around 8.9% last I remember.

Honestly though the production isn't the crux of the issue here. He doesn't do much while on the ice. I remember when JT Miller came up he wasn't scoring much but you saw him constantly trying to make plays with the puck and such. And that got him benched and scratched but at least you saw flashes. Have you really seen that many great plays and passes he's made that would make you think he should have a ton of assists? I haven't.

Only positive thing I've noticed from him lately are a couple good zone entries last few games (total, not per game) where he gets the feet crossing over and knifes through the neutral zone east-west with some speed. Though it didn't really lead to anything and they were few and far between...but hey it's more than you can say for Kakko...

Am I disappointed, yes. Am I going to say he’s a bust? Hell no

At this point, it's not really a 'Hell no'. It's moreso 'I hope not'.

 

[SA16]

How do you post this here and then scoff at me for suggesting that VK might be better in Kakko’s role in another thread?

What’s the correlation? I don’t think Laf would be better if force fed more minutes. I don’t think Kravtsov would be better than Kakko in his role either. He’s never put up huge numbers at any pro level. Kakko at the least provides a strong defensive presence even if he’s not scoring and doesn’t hurt you.

 

[Leonardo87]

It’s an issue with Laf. He really can’t play his off wing well, maybe he needs to learn? Rangers are stacked on LW with Panarin and Kreider.

Hopefully some people here are past the discussion of penciling Laf in the Top 6 over Kreider. Yeah sure Kreider has a lot of his production on the PP but he has been good at ES also.

 

[Scott r]

As I have stated a year ago and many gave it to me that I was wrong or didn't give him enough time, Lafren is a bust...amazing they essentially get two number 1 picks and both are nothing. Is that lafren...2 assists in 36 games...Ken morrow had more

 

[Scott r]

It’s an issue with Laf. He really can’t play his off wing well, maybe he needs to learn? Rangers are stacked on LW with Panarin and Kreider.

Hopefully some people here are past the discussion of penciling Laf in the Top 6 over Kreider. Yeah sure Kreider has a lot of his production on the PP but he has been good at ES also.

Problem is look at stars in nhl. They do it no later then the second year pretty much always, not 100 percent though. If him n kakko are not there in second year..its likely not going to happen.

 

[rangersfansince08]

useless player. bust.

 

[IDvsEGO]

Problem is look at stars in nhl. They do it no later then the second year pretty much always, not 100 percent though. If him n kakko are not there in second year..its likely not going to happen.

This is entirely not the true.
Is it more common for a top 2 pick to break out by his 2nd year? Absolutely, but theres also plenty of stars who took 4-5 years to "break out".

Barkov was a 40 point player until year 3, 50 points until year 5.
Scheifele had 11 games in the nhl d+1 and d+2 combined. then he's 34pts in d+3, he doesn't break 80 points until d+6.
Hell look at mika, he's a .5ppg player until d+8. hes now a PPG player.
Theres alot of factors that go into a players development and its not always a linear path.

 

[CLW]

It’s an issue with Laf. He really can’t play his off wing well, maybe he needs to learn? Rangers are stacked on LW with Panarin and Kreider.

Hopefully some people here are past the discussion of penciling Laf in the Top 6 over Kreider. Yeah sure Kreider has a lot of his production on the PP but he has been good at ES also.

The argument about Laf top 6 has nothing to do with 'production' - it's a look to the future of the team, ie development. The Rangers right now are trying to ride two horses at the same time, 'winning' vs 'development'. If that approach is to end well fans and management will need to have plenty of patience with the kids.

 

[jay from jersey]

It’s an issue with Laf. He really can’t play his off wing well, maybe he needs to learn? Rangers are stacked on LW with Panarin and Kreider.

Hopefully some people here are past the discussion of penciling Laf in the Top 6 over Kreider. Yeah sure Kreider has a lot of his production on the PP but he has been good at ES also.

I’d much rather see LaF-Zibby-Kreider over
Kreider-Zibby-Kakko.

kreider is a beast. Him playing RW isn’t a huge deal if LaF is better on the left, or more comfortable there.
Kreider is still going to go down load and in front of the net whether he plays RW/LW or C

 

[Synergy27]

This is entirely not the true.
Is it more common for a top 2 pick to break out by his 2nd year? Absolutely, but theres also plenty of stars who took 4-5 years to "break out".

Barkov was a 40 point player until year 3, 50 points until year 5.
Scheifele had 11 games in the nhl d+1 and d+2 combined. then he's 34pts in d+3, he doesn't break 80 points until d+6.
Hell look at mika, he's a .5ppg player until d+8. hes now a PPG player.
Theres alot of factors that go into a players development and its not always a linear path.

This is all fine. It really is. But what about Hischier? Nolan Patrick? Yakupov? There have been a shit load of examples of 1OAs failing and unfortunately, that trend seems to be accelerating recently.

I don’t know why we take it for granted that these guys are going to become good players because of where they were drafted. They have shown very little to warrant that since.

 

[EdJovanovski]

This is all fine. It really is. But what about Hischier? Nolan Patrick? Yakupov? There have been a shit load of examples of 1OAs failing and unfortunately, that trend seems to be accelerating recently.

I don’t know why we take it for granted that these guys are going to become good players because of where they were drafted. They have shown very little to warrant that since.

And even the likes of Yakupov looked MILES better than Kakko or Laf in his rookie season. His rookie season he looked literally over 10x better than D+3 Kakko. D+3 Kakko & D+2 Laf are on pace to get fewer P/GP COMBINED than rookie Yakupov

 

[Synergy27]

And even the likes of Yakupov looked MILES better than Kakko or Laf in his rookie season. His rookie season he looked literally over 10x better than D+3 Kakko. D+3 Kakko & D+2 Laf are on pace to get fewer P/GP COMBINED than rookie Yakupov

I don’t want to like this and I don’t want to think this. Yes, “looked” is an inexact term, but it’s highly relevant here. I’d be far less concerned if these kids “looked” like they were being held back by limited ice time and lack of PP opportunity.

Yes, lack of these thing can lead to decreased confidence which translates to “looking” the way they do. But, what are the chances that’s the actual culprit?

If you think that’s anything better than a coin flip, I don’t know why. Them simply being bad players is at least as likely as them simply needing more time and opportunity to break out. We’ve seen plenty of bad players get picked where these guys did. To ignore that is folly IMO.

 

[Hisch13r]

And even the likes of Yakupov looked MILES better than Kakko or Laf in his rookie season. His rookie season he looked literally over 10x better than D+3 Kakko. D+3 Kakko & D+2 Laf are on pace to get fewer P/GP COMBINED than rookie Yakupov

Also rookie Nico had 2 fewer pts than Kakko's had through 154 games. Rookie Nico has 20 more pts than Laf has through his 95 games. I don't know how he got lumped in there as a "failure". He's pretty much fallen right in line with pre draft expectations as like a low end 1C/high end 2C

 

[Synergy27]

Also rookie Nico had 2 fewer pts than Kakko's had through 154 games. Rookie Nico has 20 more pts than Laf has through his 95 games. I don't know how he got lumped in there as a "failure". He's pretty much fallen right in line with pre draft expectations as like a low end 1C/high end 2C

He’s a failure at 1OA so far. Glad you took the opportunity to add your two cents here. It’s not wanted or needed.

 

[smoneil]

This is all fine. It really is. But what about Hischier? Nolan Patrick? Yakupov? There have been a shit load of examples of 1OAs failing and unfortunately, that trend seems to be accelerating recently.

I don’t know why we take it for granted that these guys are going to become good players because of where they were drafted. They have shown very little to warrant that since.

Hischier isn't a failure. He's been better than half a point per game since day one, and he was a co-headliner of a draft that, even at the time, was seen as mediocre at best (really, aside from 3-5, who in retrospect should have been 1-3, you only have a couple three guys in the whole first round who can be described as above average players--even today, Chytil probably goes top 10 in a re-draft). Patrick is from that same draft, also had those migraine issues, and was used by Philly the same way the Rangers use our trio of young forwards. Frankly, if they continue to get 3rd/4th line minutes and no PP, I wonder how long it will be before one of the three asks for a trade to a team that will actually play them (though that didn't work out so well for Patrick, as he's seeing less time with Vegas than he did with Philly, and that number will likely go even lower when Eichel's new neck finishes healing).

We take it for granted because the odds of two high draft picks both bombing out completely are fairly high. Given the minutes to develop, it WOULD be strange for neither of them to at least develop into a capable 2nd line scoring winger. Even 2017 only had two disappointing players (and one true bust) in the top 5. Looking at earlier years:

2017: 1 disappointing (Hischier), 1 bust (Patrick)
2016: 1 disappointing (Puljujarvi), 1 bust (Juolevi)
2015: 2 disappointing (Strome and Hanifin), no busts
2014: 1 disappointing (Bennett), 1 bust (Dal Colle)
2013: 1 sort of disappointing (Drouin), no busts
2012: This year was bad--2 disappointing (Murray and Galchenyuk), 2 busts (Yakupov and Griffin Reinhart)
2011: This year was good--the only "disappointing" player would be Ryan Strome (and then, only if you look at his early years). No busts.
2010: A lot of meh here, but no busts (this year, the top 5 were: Hall, Seguin, Gudbanson, RyJo, and Neiderreiter).


That's an 8 year sample, and there are a total of 5 true top-5 busts (only two of whom were top 2 picks). To draft a true bust in consecutive years with top 2 picks is astronomically against the odds.

 

[tomobson]

Hischier isn't a failure. He's been better than half a point per game since day one, and he was a co-headliner of a draft that, even at the time, was seen as mediocre at best (really, aside from 3-5, who in retrospect should have been 1-3, you only have a couple three guys in the whole first round who can be described as above average players--even today, Chytil probably goes top 10 in a re-draft). Patrick is from that same draft, also had those migraine issues, and was used by Philly the same way the Rangers use our trio of young forwards. Frankly, if they continue to get 3rd/4th line minutes and no PP, I wonder how long it will be before one of the three asks for a trade to a team that will actually play them (though that didn't work out so well for Patrick, as he's seeing less time with Vegas than he did with Philly, and that number will likely go even lower when Eichel's new neck finishes healing).

We take it for granted because the odds of two high draft picks both bombing out completely are fairly high. Given the minutes to develop, it WOULD be strange for neither of them to at least develop into a capable 2nd line scoring winger. Even 2017 only had two disappointing players (and one true bust) in the top 5. Looking at earlier years:

2017: 1 disappointing (Hischier), 1 bust (Patrick)
2016: 1 disappointing (Puljujarvi), 1 bust (Juolevi)
2015: 2 disappointing (Strome and Hanifin), no busts
2014: 1 disappointing (Bennett), 1 bust (Dal Colle)
2013: 1 sort of disappointing (Drouin), no busts
2012: This year was bad--2 disappointing (Murray and Galchenyuk), 2 busts (Yakupov and Griffin Reinhart)
2011: This year was good--the only "disappointing" player would be Ryan Strome (and then, only if you look at his early years). No busts.
2010: A lot of meh here, but no busts (this year, the top 5 were: Hall, Seguin, Gudbanson, RyJo, and Neiderreiter).


That's an 8 year sample, and there are a total of 5 true top-5 busts (only two of whom were top 2 picks). To draft a true bust in consecutive years with top 2 picks is astronomically against the odds.

I thought this was the year Chytil would finally get to play with established NHLers. That kid has never gotten any support from the coaches.

 

[TheDirtyH]

I don’t want to like this and I don’t want to think this. Yes, “looked” is an inexact term, but it’s highly relevant here. I’d be far less concerned if these kids “looked” like they were being held back by limited ice time and lack of PP opportunity.

Yes, lack of these thing can lead to decreased confidence which translates to “looking” the way they do. But, what are the chances that’s the actual culprit?

If you think that’s anything better than a coin flip, I don’t know why. Them simply being bad players is at least as likely as them simply needing more time and opportunity to break out. We’ve seen plenty of bad players get picked where these guys did. To ignore that is folly IMO.

On a team that is absolute dogshit in controlling the run of play at 5v5 overall and especially awful at generating offense, Lafreniere has improved every line he's played on in terms of its chance generation to the tune that the four best line combos for the Rangers this season by xGF/60 all include him on them. No player who has played with Kaapo Kakko at least 60 mins this season hasn't seen improved on-ice results in those minutes, and Kaapo himself is either first or second among all skaters on the team in SF%, CF%, FF%, xGF%, and GF%.

Saying that of course will only invite people to tell me I'm coping and that what matters is only the results (ie. points). If you then point out that on a per 60 basis these two grade out fine on the Rangers and against their peers, you get told its about how they 'look.'

This entire team is so much less than the sum of its parts. It's greatest weaknesses are what these two kids have actually improved at most on a year-over-year basis and are among the best, if not the best, forwards on the team at providing as second and third year players. Personally, I wish Kakko and Lafreniere played more like scorers and produced more than they do; but in the context of this team, their play has been very low on my list of things that concern me and disappoint me.

 

[TheDirtyH]

Seriously, less than a year ago people were drooling over Cole Caufield and lamenting that we had Kakko instead of him. How's it going for Cole in his runaway race for the Calder?

 

[CLW]

On a team that is absolute dogshit in controlling the run of play at 5v5 overall and especially awful at generating offense, Lafreniere has improved every line he's played on in terms of its chance generation to the tune that the four best line combos for the Rangers this season by xGF/60 all include him on them. No player who has played with Kaapo Kakko at least 60 mins this season hasn't seen improved on-ice results in those minutes, and Kaapo himself is either first or second among all skaters on the team in SF%, CF%, FF%, xGF%, and GF%.

Saying that of course will only invite people to tell me I'm coping and that what matters is only the results (ie. points). If you then point out that on a per 60 basis these two grade out fine on the Rangers and against their peers, you get told its about how they 'look.'

This entire team is so much less than the sum of its parts. It's greatest weaknesses are what these two kids have actually improved at most on a year-over-year basis and are among the best, if not the best, forwards on the team at providing as second and third year players. Personally, I wish Kakko and Lafreniere played more like scorers and produced more than they do; but in the context of this team, their play has been very low on my list of things that concern me and disappoint me.

Thank you. Maybe the biggest danger to the kids development are fans and media who don't really see, even if they watch, the game and reach for the "wHeRE's tHe OfFFeNce" - bat and "bUSt" - label out of hysterical reaction or for effect. Patience is needed. Everyone says the word patience, but a lot of people don't really mean it.

 

[ORRFForever]

Seriously, less than a year ago people were drooling over Cole Caufield and lamenting that we had Kakko instead of him. How's it going for Cole in his runaway race for the Calder?

Steve Simmons (a knucklehead writer for the Toronto Sun) guaranteed either Shane Pinto or Cole Caufield would win the rookie of the year.