Player Discussion Alexis Lafrenière: Part III

[SA16]

You SUPPOSE it is true he has produced at 5v5 because the goals do count? That's very generous of you! You can doubt whatever you like, but his numbers ARE what they are. And if he stays with reasonable linemates, his shooting percentage may come down, but his chances may go up... also decent linemates might actually finish chances and get him assists...
So yeah, you can cherry pick his shooting percentage as unsustainable, but its more rational to combine that with other likelihoods as well.

You can either assume he is one of the best shooters in the history of the NHL or you can assume that the shooting percentage thus far is fluky. I know which I'd choose.

There's no point getting into this again though. Either you understand how the math and statistics work or you don't. If you don't and you don't take the time to do so it's not worth my time trying to convince you otherwise. You can feel free to proceed in ignorance if you so choose.

 

[will1066]

He's looked better and showing the famous flashes recently, but we all want him to *Thanos Snap* all of a sudden become what we were expecting which doesn't seem likely. Can he figure it out in the off season after a summer of working out and getting a quicker first step? Maybe, I sure hope he can. But it seems he's more on the slow burn path of incremental development, like Kakko is, which brings in to question how high he (and Kakko) can reach. They're still very young and some highly touted guys manage to slow burn to the top, others slow burn to top 6, but some slow burn to nowhere.

I don't think you understand the concept of the Thanos Snap lol

 

[Jauffre]

He should be sent down IMO. Light a fire and get him 20+ minutes/game in the AHL. He'll produce and his confidence should rise.

 

[bhamill]

You can either assume he is one of the best shooters in the history of the NHL or you can assume that the shooting percentage thus far is fluky. I know which I'd choose.

There's no point getting into this again though. Either you understand how the math and statistics are or you don't. If you don't and you don't take the time to do so it's not worth my time trying to convince you otherwise. You can feel free to proceed in ignorance if you so choose.

You can also assume his shot chances will not go up, that his linemates will continue to be so bad it's impossible to get an assist or any other number of things in tandem... You are cherry picking a very specific aspect of his game saying that will change (and I agree it probably will) but nothing else will change for the positive... which seems equally unlikely, since you fancy yourself an understander of math and statistics (I have a math background from NYU too). Meanwhile that does not change what currently IS and requires no assumptions at all.
Listen, it's ALL subjective. It's opinion. EXCEPT what IS. The numbers are what they are. We can say what we think will happen, and there are likelihoods, but shooting percentage doesn't exist in a vacuum, assuming it's the only thing that will change is a bad assumption. IMO. I don't need you to share my opinion. I'm perfectly happy disagreeing with you and seeing what happens, buddy!

 

[Peltz]

You can either assume he is one of the best shooters in the history of the NHL or you can assume that the shooting percentage thus far is fluky. I know which I'd choose.

One of the best shooters in the NHL? I won't try to convince you of that.

His shot is kind of a laser beam though. Wish he shot more often.

 

[bhamill]

He should be sent down IMO. Light a fire and get him 20+ minutes/game in the AHL. He'll produce and his confidence should rise.

He's D+2, is that allowed? I mean other than conditioning? I really don't know.

 

[SA16]

You can also assume his shot chances will not go up, that his linemates will continue to be so bad it's impossible to get an assist or any other number of things in tandem... You are cherry picking a very specific aspect of his game saying that will change (and I agree it probably will) but nothing else will change for the positive... which seems equally unlikely, since you fancy yourself an understander of math and statistics (I have a math background from NYU too). Meanwhile that does not change what currently IS and requires no assumptions at all.
Listen, it's ALL subjective. It's opinion. EXCEPT what IS. The numbers are what they are. We can say what we think will happen, and there are likelihoods, but shooting percentage doesn't exist in a vacuum, assuming it's the only thing that will change is a bad assumption. IMO. I don't need you to share my opinion. I'm perfectly happy disagreeing with you and seeing what happens, buddy!

His second most common forward linemate last year was Zibanejad. His third most common was Buchnevich.

You are moving the goalposts. I am taking issue with the statement that his production is in the same tier as Hall/MacKinnon so far in their career. It is not even close. Or well. It has been close but it will not continue to be so given the same level of play. Goals are high variance. SH% like this always regress. I've already shown this with other guys with similar numbers. Things can change in the future. In any case his 2nd most common linemate last year was Zibanejad and third was Buchnevich so the story that he hasn't played with good players isn't even true.

 

[bhamill]

His second most common forward linemate last year was Zibanejad. His third most common was Buchnevich.

You are moving the goalposts. I am taking issue with the statement that his production is in the same tier as Hall/MacKinnon so far in their career. It is not even close. Or well. It has been close but it will not continue to be so given the same level of play. Goals are high variance. SH% like this always regress. I've already shown this with other guys with similar numbers. Things can change in the future. In any case his 2nd most common linemate last year was Zibanejad and third was Buchnevich so the story that he hasn't played with good players isn't even true.

Who was first? I assume someone not so good.
In any case this year it's been Chytil and Gauth more often than not.
I'm moving no goal posts. I'm just saying his numbers are what they are. And they line up RIGHT NOW with some non bust players. I'm not guaranteeing he will be a superstar, I'm just saying the the rumors of his death are greatly exaggerated if you get what I mean. His numbers aren't all bad and I expect them to get BETTER not worse. Do I expect you to agree with me? Hell no. That's fine. But we have to agree on the facts, right? I mean the numbers are what they are right now. If he gets no better, or even worse, feel free to tell me you told me so, I'll accept it. It's all good. I'm not looking to make you miserable here. Hahaha.

 

[CLW]

His second most common forward linemate last year was Zibanejad. His third most common was Buchnevich.

You are moving the goalposts. I am taking issue with the statement that his production is in the same tier as Hall/MacKinnon so far in their career. It is not even close. Or well. It has been close but it will not continue to be so given the same level of play. Goals are high variance. SH% like this always regress. I've already shown this with other guys with similar numbers. Things can change in the future. In any case his 2nd most common linemate last year was Zibanejad and third was Buchnevich so the story that he hasn't played with good players isn't even true.

Tbf Laf looked very good with Zib & Buch towards the end of last season. Zib is not the only one who suffered from the loss of Buch.

 

[romba]

I don't think you understand the concept of the Thanos Snap lol

Less world killing, more ultimate power to control player development, you get the idea

 

[The Sweetness]

In what way? In the way that it took Laf, drafted only two slots earlier than Hub, a season and a half less to make the NHL. Laf was playing against men in the NHL for a season and a half while Hub was playing against teenagers in juniors... If you think that doesn't matter, as I said, that's subjective. I'm not even making the argument, I'm just saying it's there. Somebody back a ways (I don't remember if it was you) said they were expecting Laf to be Huberdeau, not McDavid, well... who says he's not? Sure you can SAY he's not but in reality their arcs may end up very similar by the end of D+3... Nothing you have said precludes this, you've been comparing apples to oranges because at this point in his development, Hub was playing in an amateur development league, while Laf has already been playing in far and away the best hockey league on the planet for a season and a half.

Ok, thanks for the measures response.

Can I ask what way do you think Lafreniere is tracking to project similar to Huberdeau?

I get Huberdeau entered the NHL a bit later than Laf but if that’s the only thing he has got going for him then things aren’t looking that positive.

And unless Laf puts up like 20 pts in 11 games (he won’t) he will behind Huberdeau in production in their only comparable seasons so far. So where is the comparison?

Or is it more than Lafreniere could still end up a good player despite a slow start? If that’s the case I agree though I’m more skeptical than you I suppose.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Who was first? I assume someone not so good.
In any case this year it's been Chytil and Gauth more often than not.
I'm moving no goal posts. I'm just saying his numbers are what they are. And they line up RIGHT NOW with some non bust players. I'm not guaranteeing he will be a superstar, I'm just saying the the rumors of his death are greatly exaggerated if you get what I mean. His numbers aren't all bad and I expect them to get BETTER not worse. Do I expect you to agree with me? Hell no. That's fine. But we have to agree on the facts, right? I mean the numbers are what they are right now. If he gets no better, or even worse, feel free to tell me you told me so, I'll accept it. It's all good. I'm not looking to make you miserable here. Hahaha.

His most common linemate was Chytil, who had a very good season last year.

 

[TheDirtyH]

I mentioned this in the GDT as well. We are all so starved for something positive when it comes to these kids that we overreact to very nice play they make. If you watch that while shift, he started it by flubbing a pass, turning the puck over, and then chasing the puck down, pulling himself out of position and essentially creating a point blank shot against. That all immediately preceded the “nice rush”, and was a harbinger of the awful night that line was about to have.

I think the opposite is just as true. Every day needs to rehash the same conversation. Just let it play out. There is very little comparison to be made given the role and the pandemic and all of it together. He’s not blowing the doors off but he’s at least a good 3LW as a teenager and there’s no reason to think he won’t improve.

Ah we're back to the misleading tweets to rationalize his production while we ignore the fact that hits 5v5 pts/60 is only as high as it is since he's shooting about 20%.

Primary assists/60 in their D+2 year

MacKinnon: 0.83
Hall 0.89
Lafreniere 0.28

Their production is not in the same tier at this point.

And yes yes Lafrenieres a good shooter...he finds the open spaces...He's shooting 22.9% this year. Ovechkin's career high is 14.4. Stamkos 20.6 in a full season (and he is an elite 5v5 shooter without elite volume), MacKinnon 16.5. Hall 10.3.

So if you want to say Lafreniere *has produced* at 5v5 I suppose it is true because the goals do count. But I highly doubt he will *continue to produce* given the rates he has so far.

his personal shooting percentage is high but his on ice shooting percentage is average to low. You assume his personal shooting percentage will drop but everyone else on his lines will continue to shoot 5.7%?

 

[Bluto]

If it had been the case from the start yes, he'd be already a much better player. But do you think doing it now would impact him in a negative way?

Would make no sense to send him down now after all this time imo, would only declare him a bust in a certain way. Same goes for a player like Dach, after starting him as 1C, moving him to the 2nd line, now the 3rd line, then sending him down, I guess it would destroy his confidence and could be why Chicago just waits.

The way it is now, Laf could benefit from constant play on the Panarin line. He hasn't been bad, he's good on the forecheck, of course dominating the AHL would've helped him break out of his shell, but don't think you still have that option now.

In a way Byfield got lucky, he got covid and they sent him down after his comeback from injury. Now he's doing what he should be doing in the AHL.

Kreider was sent down a few times and was 4 years older than laf is now when it happened. A guy getting sent down to get top line minutes at the age of 20 after only 70 NhL games is hardly a bust.

 

[bhamill]

Ok, thanks for the measures response.

Can I ask what way do you think Lafreniere is tracking to project similar to Huberdeau?

I get Huberdeau entered the NHL a bit later than Laf but if that’s the only thing he has got going for him then things aren’t looking that positive.

And unless Laf puts up like 20 pts in 11 games (he won’t) he will behind Huberdeau in production in their only comparable seasons so far. So where is the comparison?

Or is it more than Lafreniere could still end up a good player despite a slow start? If that’s the case I agree though I’m more skeptical than you I suppose.

I’m really only saying it’s too early to say he’s not tracking like Huberdeau I think end of D+3 is a fair time to assess. Even end of this year has merit. IMO, people are jumping the gun on saying Laf is a big disappointment and not worthy of his draft spot. No more no less. I think we are both hoping for bigger things from him. Maybe I’m just a little more optimistic.
I’m also grateful we can be civil in butting heads a little. Thanks!

 

[Bluto]

You can either assume he is one of the best shooters in the history of the NHL or you can assume that the shooting percentage thus far is fluky. I know which I'd choose.

There's no point getting into this again though. Either you understand how the math and statistics work or you don't. If you don't and you don't take the time to do so it's not worth my time trying to convince you otherwise. You can feel free to proceed in ignorance if you so choose.

I’d say that the odds of Lafreniere maintaining his shooting percentage are on par of the odds of Patrick ever finishing the doors of stone.

 

[bhamill]

His most common linemate was Chytil, who had a very good season last year.

22 in 42 is not bad for a young guy like Chytil, but I think we have different definitions of “very good year” for an NHLer in general. Which is fine.

 

[DanielBrassard]

22 in 42 is not bad for a young guy like Chytil, but I think we have different definitions of “very good year” for an NHLer in general. Which is fine.

Well I was responding to your comment that his most common linemate was someone who wasn't good. Which isn't true. At 5v5 Chytil was one of the most productive forwards in the NHL. Obviously that hasn't held up this season but that's not really relevant. Point being, Lafreniere played with some very good players last year and even this year, so that excuse doesn't really fly.

 

[bhamill]

Well I was responding to your comment that his most common linemate was someone who wasn't good. Which isn't true. At 5v5 Chytil was one of the most productive forwards in the NHL. Obviously that hasn't held up this season but that's not really relevant. Point being, Lafreniere played with some very good players last year and even this year, so that excuse doesn't really fly.

wait. What. His most common linemates this year being black holes is not relevant? And 22 in 42 is “very good” for an NHLer? And Chytil one of the most productive NHLers at 5v5? Not even if all 22 of his points were at 5v5. Guess Laf has been lucky getting stuck with Chytil all along. Hahaha. Personally I think that’s irrational. All of it. But whatever. I’m not trying to change your mind. Have a good one.

 

[cwede]

Laf in Covid protocol,
out least thru Saturday,
IIRC. next game after, not til Wed vs Leafs

 

[UnSandvich]

For all the whining (because honestly, that's what a lot of it is) about Lafreniere's high shooting percentage, i think it's more likely a function of low shots on goal than high shooting talent. Most of the goals he's scored are goals that a player of his pedigree SHOULD score on. As he shoots more, the percentage will dip. If you look at the players and sort it by goals scored, you have to get down to Dryden Hunt (12th on the roster, with 3 goals scored), to find somebody with a lower TOI per game than Lafreniere. I've seen enough signs that while i might be a little annoyed at his slow progression, i'm not overly discouraged.

 

[ORRFForever]

How is he looking? I never see Ranger games but I ALWAYS stats watch hoping Laf has scored. More times than not, I am disappointed. Not sure who they have him playing with but does he ever get an assist?

Please tell me he is playing better.

 

[mas0764]

Any word on when he’s back?

 

[Ruggs225]

Any word on when he’s back?

No but he is eligible to come back for the next game on weds.

I hope he is watching the games. Sometimes just being able to see the games can help a players mindset and help learn what to do.

 

[SA16]

Totally invisible the last couple of games. I didn’t even notice him on the ice. He has to be more assertive and want the puck on his stick. He got demoted the last couple of games for Chytil and Chytil has a four game point streak in that role. I don’t know what his ice time has been but he hasn’t even been on PP2.