Player Discussion Alexis Lafrenière: Part III

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He's looked better and showing the famous flashes recently, but we all want him to *Thanos Snap* all of a sudden become what we were expecting which doesn't seem likely. Can he figure it out in the off season after a summer of working out and getting a quicker first step? Maybe, I sure hope he can. But it seems he's more on the slow burn path of incremental development, like Kakko is, which brings in to question how high he (and Kakko) can reach. They're still very young and some highly touted guys manage to slow burn to the top, others slow burn to top 6, but some slow burn to nowhere.
 
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This is the definition of gaslighting. He made one nice play all game, the rush where he set up Strome and Strome couldn't finish. The rest of the game he was as invisible and ineffective as he usually is. People know what they are watching, and the stats bare it out as well. He doesn't create enough offense for himself or his teammates.
I mentioned this in the GDT as well. We are all so starved for something positive when it comes to these kids that we overreact to very nice play they make. If you watch that while shift, he started it by flubbing a pass, turning the puck over, and then chasing the puck down, pulling himself out of position and essentially creating a point blank shot against. That all immediately preceded the “nice rush”, and was a harbinger of the awful night that line was about to have.
 
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I thought he had an okay game. But that was a really nice play. Ironically, people were actually bagging on Lafreniere for hitting open nets for some of his goals... if only Strome had. Hahaha.
I think it's true that some people are hyper focused on the positives and even more people are hyper focused on any negative. He's barely 3 months removed from being a teenager, I admit I tend to look for the positives in players that young, because they are a sign of what's possible and we are talking about a developing young player. I don't think that that is as unreasonable as declaring our barely 20 year old, mostly saddled with bad linemates, fourth leading goal scorer a total bust. Hahahaha.
 
Looks like I thought D+1 year was a full-year after the draft which was incorrect. Thanks to you and another poster for pointing that out.

Anyhow, here is a comparison of their numbers based on Lafreniere's D+2 year so far.

Lafreniere
11 pts in 37 games - so far

Huberdeau
31 pts in 48 games

Lafreniere needs 20 pts in 11 games to equal that production.

You keep bringing up Lafreniere can score 59 more pts and be on the same pace - but he isn't anywhere near that pace so I'm not sure why you think that's likely production.

You might argue that Huberdeau started around halfway into the season so that the numbers aren't comparable. However, Lafreniere is also an older birthday.

Of course Lafreniere doesn't get much PP time or ice time but let's be honest and also admit he hasn't deserved more time even - I'm sure even the coaches planned on him taking a big step forward this year. He also has an unsustainable shooting percentage.

Huberdeau of course regressed the year after that before than taking a step forward. Could Laf take a big step forward next year? Sure. But he could also stagnate. His production in his D+2 year is worse than his D+1 year and his production last year was poor. His career production honestly looks atrocious compared to other high picks over the length of his career so far.

We can of course hope that Lafreniere equals Huberdeau as a player, both in the short-term and long-term. However, he hasn't yet showed that he's projecting at a similar level so far in his NHL career.

Edit - fixed the D+1 mixed up and then updated numbers.

Birth date, IMO, is not as relevant as seasons playing. The playing is what develops you, not just being older. So Yeah, I think it matters that Huberdeau started in the NHL halfway through his D+2 season.
You can say that you don't think Laf's scoring rate will come up, and if he's back with Chytil and Gauth, you may well be right, but if he gets the luxury of better linemates, you may well be wrong, guess we will see.
My point here is if you want to compare their development you have to wait until the end of at least this year, since Hub didn't even MAKE the NHL until around this point... and are we going to consider the fact that ONE made it and one didn't? Sure Laf was given a roster spot as a 1OA, but Hub was a 3OA, I'm sure FL wanted him to break in in his D+1 as well... Does that mean Laf is actually on a better development curve than Hub so far? Totally subjective. I think by the end of next season we will have a more representative showing to compare the arc of both players. That's all.
 
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Hopefully they keep him on Panarin's wing this game. If Panarin has an off night he drags Strome with him as well and then all you have left is Laf to try to keep that line afloat. Strome knows how to do one thing when playing with Panarin and that's getting Panarin the puck at all costs. He's not going to change the formula that's going to give him the biggest contract he'll ever see in his career. I honestly hate seeing one of the kids playing on that line but Laf needs minutes.
 
Birth date, IMO, is not as relevant as seasons playing. The playing is what develops you, not just being older. So Yeah, I think it matters that Huberdeau started in the NHL halfway through his D+2 season.
You can say that you don't think Laf's scoring rate will come up, and if he's back with Chytil and Gauth, you may well be right, but if he gets the luxury of better linemates, you may well be wrong, guess we will see.
My point here is if you want to compare their development you have to wait until the end of at least this year, since Hub didn't even MAKE the NHL until around this point... and are we going to consider the fact that ONE made it and one didn't? Sure Laf was given a roster spot as a 1OA, but Hub was a 3OA, I'm sure FL wanted him to break in in his D+1 as well... Does that mean Laf is actually on a better development curve than Hub so far? Totally subjective. I think by the end of next season we will have a more representative showing to compare the arc of both players. That's all.
In what way could the bold even be even debated?

I’m not calling Laf a bust. I’ll certainly be continuing to evaluate him and he obviously has tons of time to turn things around and rooting for him.

My main point is that he hasn’t done much at all to provide us with optimism, either through his production or the eye test.

But it’s fine to have different opinions here and there isn’t likely much more to discuss as time will tell. And hopefully he becomes a star in the league.
 
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In what way could the bold even be even debated?

I’m not calling Laf a bust. I’ll certainly be continuing to evaluate him and he obviously has tons of time to turn things around and rooting for him.

My main point is that he hasn’t done much at all to provide us with optimism, either through his production or the eye test.

But it’s fine to have different opinions here and there isn’t likely much more to discuss as time will tell. And hopefully he becomes a star in the league.

In what way? In the way that it took Laf, drafted only two slots earlier than Hub, a season and a half less to make the NHL. Laf was playing against men in the NHL for a season and a half while Hub was playing against teenagers in juniors... If you think that doesn't matter, as I said, that's subjective. I'm not even making the argument, I'm just saying it's there. Somebody back a ways (I don't remember if it was you) said they were expecting Laf to be Huberdeau, not McDavid, well... who says he's not? Sure you can SAY he's not but in reality their arcs may end up very similar by the end of D+3... Nothing you have said precludes this, you've been comparing apples to oranges because at this point in his development, Hub was playing in an amateur development league, while Laf has already been playing in far and away the best hockey league on the planet for a season and a half.
 
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Ah we're back to the misleading tweets to rationalize his production while we ignore the fact that hits 5v5 pts/60 is only as high as it is since he's shooting about 20%.

Primary assists/60 in their D+2 year

MacKinnon: 0.83
Hall 0.89
Lafreniere 0.28

Their production is not in the same tier at this point.

And yes yes Lafrenieres a good shooter...he finds the open spaces...He's shooting 22.9% this year. Ovechkin's career high is 14.4. Stamkos 20.6 in a full season (and he is an elite 5v5 shooter without elite volume), MacKinnon 16.5. Hall 10.3.

So if you want to say Lafreniere *has produced* at 5v5 I suppose it is true because the goals do count. But I highly doubt he will *continue to produce* given the rates he has so far.
 
Ah we're back to the misleading tweets to rationalize his production while we ignore the fact that hits 5v5 pts/60 is only as high as it is since he's shooting about 20%.

Primary assists/60 in their D+2 year

MacKinnon: 0.83
Hall 0.89
Lafreniere 0.28

Their production is not in the same tier at this point.

And yes yes Lafrenieres a good shooter...he finds the open spaces...He's shooting 22.9% this year. Ovechkin's career high is 14.4. Stamkos 20.6 in a full season (and he is an elite 5v5 shooter without elite volume), MacKinnon 16.5. Hall 10.3.

So if you want to say Lafreniere *has produced* at 5v5 I suppose it is true because the goals do count. But I highly doubt he will *continue to produce* given the rates he has so far.

You SUPPOSE it is true he has produced at 5v5 because the goals do count? That's very generous of you! You can doubt whatever you like, but his numbers ARE what they are. And if he stays with reasonable linemates, his shooting percentage may come down, but his chances may go up... also decent linemates might actually finish chances and get him assists...
So yeah, you can cherry pick his shooting percentage as unsustainable, but its more rational to combine that with other likelihoods as well.
 
He needed to be given 19 minutes a night in the AHL (along with Kaako) post-draft, especially given the amount of time off between seasons with COVID ruining the draft season.

Yes, they're great young players and they'll put it together eventually, but they're being put in a position where they can't develop their offensive games and they basically just manage their ice time cycling the puck and trying not to mess up for 13 minutes a night.

Lafreniere pre-draft looks nothing like LafreNYR. The moves, confidence, his instinct to take the center of the ice, quick decision-making with the puck, are all neutered. Admittedly, this was all against lesser (younger, weaker, slower) competition, but these traits are no longer visible in his game.

The Rangers are better off (especially now that Kravtsov threw his little temper tantrum) starting almost all picks in the AHL regardless of camp play. That sounds really harsh, but they've proven that they don't know how to develop offensive talent in-house.

In 2 years, he'll be a much better player and I think he'll be capable of putting up 60 points in a season, but he looks like he's losing time to be the "savior" many thought he would be.

If he figures out how to cause some separation between him and opponents while finding pockets of space, he could put it all together very quickly.
 
Ah we're back to the misleading tweets to rationalize his production while we ignore the fact that hits 5v5 pts/60 is only as high as it is since he's shooting about 20%.

Primary assists/60 in their D+2 year

MacKinnon: 0.83
Hall 0.89
Lafreniere 0.28

Their production is not in the same tier at this point.

And yes yes Lafrenieres a good shooter...he finds the open spaces...He's shooting 22.9% this year. Ovechkin's career high is 14.4. Stamkos 20.6 in a full season (and he is an elite 5v5 shooter without elite volume), MacKinnon 16.5. Hall 10.3.

So if you want to say Lafreniere *has produced* at 5v5 I suppose it is true because the goals do count. But I highly doubt he will *continue to produce* given the rates he has so far.
I'm glad you could break it down before I had a chance to respond lol. It's amazing how far people will go to rationalize his poor play. Why not just be honest.
 
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He needed to be given 19 minutes a night in the AHL (along with Kaako) post-draft, especially given the amount of time off between seasons with COVID ruining the draft season.

Yes, they're great young players and they'll put it together eventually, but they're being put in a position where they can't develop their offensive games and they basically just manage their ice time cycling the puck and trying not to mess up for 13 minutes a night.

Lafreniere pre-draft looks nothing like LafreNYR. The moves, confidence, his instinct to take the center of the ice, quick decision-making with the puck, are all neutered. Admittedly, this was all against lesser (younger, weaker, slower) competition, but these traits are no longer visible in his game.

The Rangers are better off (especially now that Kravtsov threw his little temper tantrum) starting almost all picks in the AHL regardless of camp play. That sounds really harsh, but they've proven that they don't know how to develop offensive talent in-house.

In 2 years, he'll be a much better player and I think he'll be capable of putting up 60 points in a season, but he looks like he's losing time to be the "savior" many thought he would be.

If he figures out how to cause some separation between him and opponents while finding pockets of space, he could put it all together very quickly.

I agree AHL should be the default for any player in D+1 0r 2. Even if a player has a stellar camp. Still start them there for at least a 10 game stretch. Let every player know that's the deal. And then promote them if they "force" you to. Except that isn't normally an option for kids drafted out of the CHL. Normally its NHL or Juniors, right? I think teams should be able to buy two CHL players a year the opportunity to play AHL by compensating the CHL or their actual Junior team. But I doubt we will see this.
 
I think Laf would benefit immensely from going to Hartford and playing 23 minutes per night in all situations for the rest of the regular season.
 
I'm glad you could break it down before I had a chance to respond lol. It's amazing how far people will go to rationalize his poor play. Why not just be honest.

Some might say it's the other way around. Why not just be honest that his production isn't that far out of line? Hahaha.
I mean the tweet is factual. Saying he can't maintain his percentage and nothing else will change is rationalizing, no?
He's not great, he's not a bust. You're allowed to be pessimistic, others are allowed to be optimistic. Subjective call, trying to invalidate other people's takes doesn't change the actual numbers.
 
Some might say it's the other way around. Why not just be honest that his production isn't that far out of line? Hahaha.
I mean the tweet is factual. Saying he can't maintain his percentage and nothing else will change is rationalizing, no?
He's not great, he's not a bust. You're allowed to be pessimistic, others are allowed to be optimistic. Subjective call, trying to invalidate other people's takes doesn't change the actual numbers.
The tweet is factual but it's totally misleading. Trying to make it seem as if he's been contributing offensively on the same level as Hall and MacKinnon did in their D+1 and D+2 seasons is insane. Why didn't he post the Shooting percentages and shot rates for each player? Why didn't he mention shot contributions? It's a dishonest post. He's shooting around 20% for his career at 5v5, can you name one player who has been able to maintain that for any prolonged period of time? Not to mention even with that he's totaled 12 assists in his entire career, 12. For a guy who was supposed to be a dynamic playmaking winger. It's a joke.
 
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The tweet is factual but it's totally misleading. Trying to make it seem as if he's been contributing offensively on the same level as Hall and MacKinnon did in their D+1 and D+2 seasons is insane. Why didn't he post the Shooting percentages and shot rates for each player? Why didn't he mention shot contributions? It's a dishonest post. He's shooting around 20% for his career at 5v5, can you name one player who has been able to maintain that for any prolonged period of time? Not to mention even with that he's totaled 12 assists in his entire career, 12. For a guy who was supposed to be a dynamic playmaking winger. It's a joke.
Is his On Ice Shooting % really high too or low? Perhaps his goals are inflated by his S% but his assists might also be deflated by other players S% like we see with Strome missing on all those high danger shots. Not defending him as I am one of the bigger critics of him & Kakko but just curious what those stats would say
 
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Is his On Ice Shooting % really high too or low? Perhaps his goals are inflated by his S% but his assists might also be deflated by other players S% like we see with Strome missing on all those high danger shots. Not defending him as I am one of the bigger critics of him & Kakko but just curious what those stats would say
It's been about middle of the pack over the last two years. This year he's 11th out of 21 Rangers with 100 minutes of TOI. Last year it was 14th out of 24. So it's not extremely low but slightly below team average.
 
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I think Laf would benefit immensely from going to Hartford and playing 23 minutes per night in all situations for the rest of the regular season.
If it had been the case from the start yes, he'd be already a much better player. But do you think doing it now would impact him in a negative way?

Would make no sense to send him down now after all this time imo, would only declare him a bust in a certain way. Same goes for a player like Dach, after starting him as 1C, moving him to the 2nd line, now the 3rd line, then sending him down, I guess it would destroy his confidence and could be why Chicago just waits.

The way it is now, Laf could benefit from constant play on the Panarin line. He hasn't been bad, he's good on the forecheck, of course dominating the AHL would've helped him break out of his shell, but don't think you still have that option now.

In a way Byfield got lucky, he got covid and they sent him down after his comeback from injury. Now he's doing what he should be doing in the AHL.
 
The tweet is factual but it's totally misleading. Trying to make it seem as if he's been contributing offensively on the same level as Hall and MacKinnon did in their D+1 and D+2 seasons is insane. Why didn't he post the Shooting percentages and shot rates for each player? Why didn't he mention shot contributions? It's a dishonest post. He's shooting around 20% for his career at 5v5, can you name one player who has been able to maintain that for any prolonged period of time? Not to mention even with that he's totaled 12 assists in his entire career, 12. For a guy who was supposed to be a dynamic playmaking winger. It's a joke.

Factual but misleading. That's not rationalizing at all... All the facts say is what he HAS done. Sure you can argue his % will come down. I can argue his chances will go up and offset that or that his assists will go up, but they ARE where they are. Double standard is the phrase that comes to mind.
 
He needed to be given 19 minutes a night in the AHL (along with Kaako) post-draft, especially given the amount of time off between seasons with COVID ruining the draft season.

Yes, they're great young players and they'll put it together eventually, but they're being put in a position where they can't develop their offensive games and they basically just manage their ice time cycling the puck and trying not to mess up for 13 minutes a night.

Lafreniere pre-draft looks nothing like LafreNYR. The moves, confidence, his instinct to take the center of the ice, quick decision-making with the puck, are all neutered. Admittedly, this was all against lesser (younger, weaker, slower) competition, but these traits are no longer visible in his game.

The Rangers are better off (especially now that Kravtsov threw his little temper tantrum) starting almost all picks in the AHL regardless of camp play. That sounds really harsh, but they've proven that they don't know how to develop offensive talent in-house.

In 2 years, he'll be a much better player and I think he'll be capable of putting up 60 points in a season, but he looks like he's losing time to be the "savior" many thought he would be.

If he figures out how to cause some separation between him and opponents while finding pockets of space, he could put it all together very quickly.

When Cally, Dubinsky, Anisimov and other forwards were drafted they all had to "go through the process" and I recall that the front office wanted to see them "dominate at the AHL level" before reaching the NHL. That was verbatim.

Obviously those forwards and others did not have the pedigree of being so highly drafted as Laf and Kakko. They also weren't drafted in the midst of a self-imposed rebuild, that everyone, including the fans were on board with.

On the surface, I agree with your entire statement from front to back.

However, recent times and the events surrounding the first developmental years of these two havent been anything but normal.

The problem is there were/are enough roster spots on these rebuilding teams that fans and even the front office expected these two to excel so they were thrusted in right away. Everyone wanted to see them play and judging where their games were on the world stage, it made sense to take a look.

It also doesn't hurt that a few more tickets will be sold, knowing that you will not only get to see Bread and company hit the ice, but also the young saviors we had never drafted so highly in what is essentially a century-old franchise. We can't be naive about that.

Most importantly let's also not forget what the landscape of the AHL has been since Laf was drafted. Alexis was drafted in October 2020, 5 months after the AHL season was cancelled. Then all they had was 24 games against the same two teams with no Calder Cup awarded. That was the time frame where he really needed to be there.

Its a coalescence of events that thrusted these kids into the prime time and now it would require a super-judicious decision to send them down at this point. I'm not trying to make excuses. In the entire history of this team you couldnt pick a worse 24 month stretch to finally get two top draft picks and try to assimilate them into the NHL level, no matter how great or shitty they are.

So we wait. Probably even longer than we need to and now with the doubt that either of these two will actually pan out to their full potential.

Ill continue to remain positive as well. I've seen countless forwards in this league both present and past hit 23-25 and then take off - and given everything I've mentioned above the rope has to be a little longer the way I see it.
 
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He needed to be given 19 minutes a night in the AHL (along with Kaako) post-draft, especially given the amount of time off between seasons with COVID ruining the draft season.

Yes, they're great young players and they'll put it together eventually, but they're being put in a position where they can't develop their offensive games and they basically just manage their ice time cycling the puck and trying not to mess up for 13 minutes a night.

Lafreniere pre-draft looks nothing like LafreNYR. The moves, confidence, his instinct to take the center of the ice, quick decision-making with the puck, are all neutered. Admittedly, this was all against lesser (younger, weaker, slower) competition, but these traits are no longer visible in his game.

The Rangers are better off (especially now that Kravtsov threw his little temper tantrum) starting almost all picks in the AHL regardless of camp play. That sounds really harsh, but they've proven that they don't know how to develop offensive talent in-house.

In 2 years, he'll be a much better player and I think he'll be capable of putting up 60 points in a season, but he looks like he's losing time to be the "savior" many thought he would be.

If he figures out how to cause some separation between him and opponents while finding pockets of space, he could put it all together very quickly.

Good post, thanks. and therein lies the problem. The Rangers didnt NEED a savior. but being drafted #1, seems to have nearly become "automatic" in making the club around the NHL.
if there were NO LEGIT minutes to be had AND on the PP, he AND Kaapo should have been in Hartford for at least a half season if not 1 full one. But, we weren't going to be happy with that now, would we have been? In hindsight yes. But,not then.
Also agree the Rangers SHOULD do this moving forward, not everyone is a Crosby/McDavid/Eichel, now are they? We wanted that to be the case now, didnt we?
 
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My BOLD prediction. LAFFY with his 1st real bust out 4 pt. performance vs SJ tonight. the start of really good things.

Oh boy. Well if he scores goals, he better take at least 6 shots for every goal he scores or it's unsustainable and makes him look better than he is.
 
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