Player Discussion Alexis Lafrenière: Part II

[kovazub94]

Statistically in that context clearly meant looking at the kid’s stats. No need to be pedantic here.

Let me repeat it: concerns are voiced over 16 (!) game sample size.

 

[kovazub94]

Literally who said bust? Somebody direct me to these posts.

Literally, within the last 5 pages you can find it along with names like Daigle, Yakupov and Stefan.

 

[IronBloodedLion]

You’re up kid. Show us what you got.

 

[Machinehead]

Literally, within the last 5 pages you can find it along with names like Daigle, Yakupov and Stefan.

All I see is people saying he's not producing. Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but he's not.

 

[Synergy27]

Let me repeat it: concerns are voiced over 16 (!) game sample size.

His performance over this small sample size is much worse than comparable picks over the same sample size. No one is making an argument about statistical significance, we’re talking about his lack of counting stats compared to others over the same sample.

Could mean nothing due to the sample size, sure.

 

[JCProdigy]

If Laf had a line of 5G 6A 11P through 16GP would these concerns be alleviated?

Actually what are the concerns you all have? Just want to get the correct temperature of the room.

 

[Harbour Dog]

Okay, so “I’m just saying I’m concerned is all” is the new “I’m just asking questions.” Got it.

For all of you saying you’re just concerned, WHAT precisely is your concern, if NOT that he’s a bust?

Unless you’re just expressing a general existential concern? In which case, I too am worried that nothing comes after death, our consciousness simply ends, and oh God, this is getting dark fast...

Well, Zzzquil again tonight...

 

[True Blue]

So your take is that this year doesn’t count because of COVID. It’s as simple as that.

What happened to Kakko last year? Why is he still having so much trouble scoring despite looking much better all around this year?

Who said anything about the year not counting?

Kakko needed to be broken of poor habits like trying to dangle through 3 players and having the puck be stripped from him as a result. He was also 18, let's recall.

 

[True Blue]

All I see is people saying he's not producing. Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but he's not.

How much of that is strictly on him and how much is on the vets not taking care of business?

 

[Machinehead]

How much of that is strictly on him and how much is on the vets not taking care of business?

This is a perfectly valid topic to discuss.

That doesn't make "he's not producing" an unreasonable take somehow.

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

I'm concerned that prospects have slow development under this coaching staff.

Oh okay, so in other words, because the coaching staff is bad...

...he's in danger of becoming a bust.

 

[Synergy27]

Who said anything about the year not counting?

Kakko needed to be broken of poor habits like trying to dangle through 3 players and having the puck be stripped from him as a result. He was also 18, let's recall.

Your whole argument is that this is an unprecedented season so we need to discount the results. Ok fine. When does that stop being an excuse? Next year?

 

[True Blue]

Your whole argument is that this is an unprecedented season so we need to discount the results. Ok fine. When does that stop being an excuse? Next year?

No, my argument is not that this is an unprecedented season. My argument is that unprecedented circumstances have occurred. 1) not playing hockey in 10 months 2) having a two week camp 3) having no exhibition games whatsoever. Those are not excuses. Those are facts. And if you do not believe that a 19 year old rookie would be negatively affected by this, you are simply out to lunch.

 

[Machinehead]

Oh okay, so in other words, because the coaching staff is bad...

...he's in danger of becoming a bust.

No.

Honestly, this whole "let's be reasonable" discourse has become such that the tables have turned. The only thing unreasonable in here is the notion that there's pages and pages of Lafreniere hot takes.

I'm concerned that the coaching staff isn't good. That maybe he ends up less than his ceiling. That maybe he picks up bad habits. That maybe he hits his ceiling but we waste years retraining him.

There's a wealth of space between ceiling and bust. Ironically, nobody has uttered the word bust except the people mad at other people for calling him a bust. I'm dizzy.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

No.

Honestly, this whole "let's be reasonable" discourse has become such that the tables have turned. The only thing unreasonable in here is the notion that there's pages and pages of Lafreniere hot takes.

I'm concerned that the coaching staff isn't good. That maybe he ends up less than his ceiling. That maybe he picks up bad habits. That maybe he hits his ceiling but we waste years retraining him.

There's a wealth of space between ceiling and bust. Ironically, nobody has uttered the word bust except the people mad at other people for calling him a bust. I'm dizzy.

Every retort to a "concern" being raised is written off as an excuse

 

[Machinehead]

Every retort to a "concern" being raised is written off as an excuse

I think people just expected more points despite the circumstances. That's literally it.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

I think people just expected more points despite the circumstances. That's literally it.

Then they don't need to say it multiple times per day, we f***ing get it

 

[Filthy Dangles]

TS scores a terrible goal the other night that no NHL goalie has any business giving up and its "OMG CRAZY GOAL!" (BTW, it was a bad angle shot from inside of the bottom of the left circle, not inches above the goal line.)

Laf scores a much tougher goal from in tight and its "Meh, I hop that gets him going"

Some of you are just looking for disappointment.

Come on, this is BS. We'd be all be jerking Laff off if he did what Stutzle did. Picking off the pass, chipping it by the dman and speeding up the ice, even though the goal given up was weak.

His goal was way more impressive. People are waxing poetic about a little forehand-backhand move when the goalie slid over, lol.

Laf's been invisible the past few games. Hopefully Panarin's abcense gets him more touches and confidence.

 

[Synergy27]

No, my argument is not that this is an unprecedented season. My argument is that unprecedented circumstances have occurred. 1) not playing hockey in 10 months 2) having a two week camp 3) having no exhibition games whatsoever. Those are not excuses. Those are facts. And if you do not believe that a 19 year old rookie would be negatively affected by this, you are simply out to lunch.

Perhaps my reading comprehension is bad. Do unprecedented circumstances not equal unprecedented season?

This is all fine. I understand why some people aren’t concerned because of the circumstances.

The question is, how long does that remain true?

I am personally already “concerned” because even if the kid had a bit better puck luck, he is way off the pace that most/many predicted based on his pedigree. I am already concerned because I don’t see him doing things on the ice that only “special” players can do - regardless of counting stats.

When will you be concerned? It sounds like you’ve written off this season because of the crazy circumstances, so, when can we start assessing the kid? Thanksgiving next year assuming we get a normal TC? Year three? Let’s put some marks on the wall.

And please, I don’t want it getting lost in here that I think you will ultimately be right. All I’m saying is that I’m no longer sleeping easy (figuratively speaking) knowing that we have a guaranteed PPG elite player on our hands. There’s some doubt creeping into my mind.

 

[FireGerardGallant]

I think its fair to be at least a little disappointed in the production and have questions of this staff where setbacks have occured for our last 4 top 10 picks from them. But people thinking these are long term concerns are just as silly. And the people acting like Stuzle is having this ridiculous rookie season are laughable

 

[Filthy Dangles]

I think its fair to be at least a little disappointed in the production and have questions of this staff where setbacks have occured for our last 4 top 10 picks from them. But people thinking these are long term concerns are just as silly. And the people acting like Stuzle is having this ridiculous rookie season are laughable

No one thinks this but he's showing a lot more so far. He regularly has majestic end to end rushes.

 

[FireGerardGallant]

No one thinks this but he's showing a lot more so far. He regularly has majestic end to end rushes.

I mean when you have people on here slurping every little play he makes theyre making it seem like hes the next coming of Jesus. I think Rangers fans are somehow overrating this man more then even Ottawa fans are

 

[True Blue]

Perhaps my reading comprehension is bad. Do unprecedented circumstances not equal unprecedented season?

This is all fine. I understand why some people aren’t concerned because of the circumstances.

The question is, how long does that remain true?

I am personally already “concerned” because even if the kid had a bit better puck luck, he is way off the pace that most/many predicted based on his pedigree. I am already concerned because I don’t see him doing things on the ice that only “special” players can do - regardless of counting stats.

When will you be concerned? It sounds like you’ve written off this season because of the crazy circumstances, so, when can we start assessing the kid? Thanksgiving next year assuming we get a normal TC? Year three? Let’s put some marks on the wall.

And please, I don’t want it getting lost in here that I think you will ultimately be right. All I’m saying is that I’m no longer sleeping easy (figuratively speaking) knowing that we have a guaranteed PPG elite player on our hands. There’s some doubt creeping into my mind.

Well, as you point out, unprecedented is unprecedented. In which the "when" becomes a bit open ended. But I also know that judging purely by counting stats is not the way to go. The kid has an on-ice shooting percentage at a hair over two. That is so low as to be comical. But the when you look at expected goals and generation of high end scoring chances when he is on ice, the numbers sky rocket. So how do you square that? Well, not only is it poor puck luck, but his line mates being incapable of converting what Lafreniere sets them up with. Is that a reason to be worried? Not to me it's not.

Then there is the fact that by the strict eye test, Lafreiere really does not look overwhelmed or that the game is too fast for him. Is he tentative at time? Of course he is. He is a 19 year old rookie with a ton of expectations who has known nothing but counting stats. So yeah, I would say that he looks tentative at times is hardly surprising.

You keep harping on "writing the season off". That is not what is being done. The only thing being done is putting things into proper perspective. When does that change? When it looks like the game is too much for him or the analytical stats start to tell a completely different time.

At times, I find it is necessary to blow things into the absurd level to help illustrate a point. If Lafreniere did not get a single point all year, but managed to net 40 in the final game of the season, would you then say that he has had a fantastic rookie season?

 

[True Blue]

I mean when you have people on here slurping every little play he makes theyre making it seem like hes the next coming of Jesus. I think Rangers fans are somehow overrating this man more then even Ottawa fans are

No one is overrating him. Is he "generational" Of course not. Am I confident that he is a rock star, franchise corner stone? Why, yes I am.

 

[FireGerardGallant]

No one is overrating him. Is he "generational" Of course not. Am I confident that he is a rock star, franchise corner stone? Why, yes I am.

And 16 games shoudnt be enough to make you think Laf wont be one either