Alex Kerfoot Discussion

[horner]

He is a fa after next season .
Should be traded at the draft this summer .
We won't be able to resign him and we need to replenish our prospect pool for future trades.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Yup I'm not sure what the thinking there was

It's obvious isn't it?

You can't hand Campbell the job because at the time there wasn't enough sample size to prove he could do it.

You can't give Hutchinson the backup because he can't do it.

And Woll wasn't getting the backup because he had 0 games of NHL experience.

They made the right move with the wrong guy.

Should have been Halak or Holtby

 

[Gary Nylund]

In the middle of this 20-4-2 stretch I feel we haven't been talking about Kerfoot as much as we should. He has 24 points in 33 games, a 60 point pace! He also has 17 EV assists which leads the team and is 2nd in EV points behind Tavares. He does all this while being the most versatile depth piece we have. He's usually a 2LW, but can play 3C and even jump up to 1RW as we saw last night.

What a year he's having. Arguably the most under-appreciated piece we have on the roster right now

My name is Gary Nylund and I approve of this thread!

Agree with the bolded and loving the way Kerfoot's playing for us!

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Playing with the cap calculator:
- subtract Mrazek
- subtract Holl or Dermott
- subtract Ritchie
- re-sign Sandin and Liljegren in the vicinity of 1.5 to 2 per player
- fill out the roster with ELCs and league min players
- sign Campbell long term @ $6M aav, keep Kerfoot

Nobody is giving Campbell 6 not when there is a guy in New York putting up almost the exact same numbers at a younger age for 5.6

Jack isn't getting 6

 

[Twine Tickler]

Kerf has been great. Hyman level versatility this season. Every team needs a player that can play this type of role. Very underappreciated.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Can't trade Kerfoot based on his play last playoffs and this year .. he compliments Willy really well .. and JT can shoot .. da line works .. to me it will be key to any playoff chance we have .. teams will focus on Matty's line and then this line needs to come through .. all we need to do is get a top 4 D and a vet defensive dman with size and toughness and great defensive play to anchor 3rd pair

 

[Gary Nylund]

Nobody is giving Campbell 6 not when there is a guy in New York putting up almost the exact same numbers at a younger age for 5.6

Jack isn't getting 6

If Jack wins the Vezina (probably even if he's nominated) then IMO he's pretty much a lock to get 6. That guy in NY, that's one example but have a look at some of the guys that signed for 5 million last summer and compare them to Jack, you might end up concluding that Jack might even get 7-8 million.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

If Jack wins the Vezina (probably even if he's nominated) then IMO he's pretty much a lock to get 6. That guy in NY, that's one example but have a look at some of the guys that signed for 5 million last summer and compare them to Jack, you might end up concluding that Jack might even get 7-8 million.

I love Jack I do, there is no chance in hell he gets 7-8

I'm confident he won't get 6 there is NO chance he hits 7

 

[Beaumaris]

"The best laid plans of mice and men often go awry."

You’re a couple of weeks early with your Burns quotes Laddie.

 

[ACC1224]

I love Jack I do, there is no chance in hell he gets 7-8

I'm confident he won't get 6 there is NO chance he hits 7

Sounds like you're just daring Dubas at this point.

 

[Menzinger]

If Jack wins the Vezina (probably even if he's nominated) then IMO he's pretty much a lock to get 6. That guy in NY, that's one example but have a look at some of the guys that signed for 5 million last summer and compare them to Jack, you might end up concluding that Jack might even get 7-8 million.

He's almost 30 and has a career high of less than 30 games played in a single season prior to this year Getting 7+ mil would be unprecedented for a guy like that, can't see it happening.

Guys like Lehner or Varlamov offer fairly consistent comparisons for the range he will get assuming he has a strong finish to his season and playoffs

 

[SeaOfBlue]

If Jack wins the Vezina (probably even if he's nominated) then IMO he's pretty much a lock to get 6. That guy in NY, that's one example but have a look at some of the guys that signed for 5 million last summer and compare them to Jack, you might end up concluding that Jack might even get 7-8 million.

Jacob Markstrom, at the same age as Campbell right now, received 6x6 after a season with playoff success and was 4th in Vezina voting. He also had two full years as a primary starter before that which helped his case.

Linus Ullmark is 1.5 years younger than Campbell and signed a year earlier than him too. Ullmark's age in his contract year will be the same as Campbell's in the first year of his new deal. That has a lot to do with Ullmark's money (on top of Boston being desperate).

Ben Bishop received the equivalent of 5.5 x 6 on a 82.5 mill cap at the same age as Campbell in UFA, but he had 3 straight seasons as a starter with two being Vezina caliber + a Stanley Cup Finals run with a .921 save percentage + another serious playoff run with almost a .940 save percentage. Campbell has zero playoff success.

Lehner received 5x5 with a larger resume and signing at a year younger.

Campbell could have an amazing year, but it is still only one year where he has handled a starter's workload and he is 30. The market is clear for those kinds of guys, even the Vezina-caliber ones, and it is certainly not 7-8 mill. Even 6 mill, unless he is seriously sacrificing term, is probably out of reach from any cap-strapped team (there may always be a crappy team with cap space willing to overpay for him). We will see what happens if he gets the Vezina and the Conn Smythe.

 

[4thline]

More than any other position, the market (as in true supply and demand) will decide a goalie's value. What we've seen since July 2021 has shown that pretty clearly, no one cares about pre-covid precedent, comes down to what teams are willing to pay for the limited options to fill the role they need filled.

But on topic, f*** yeah Kerfoot

 

[darrylsittler27]

Kerfoot has given Dubas' a hell of a quandry. Put him with Mathews and he as good as Marner but now you raise his value to $4.5 plus as a ufa. Then you lose him for nothing.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Sounds like you're just daring Dubas at this point.

I know Dubas likes to spend money but even he isn't paying Jack 7

 

[Gary Nylund]

He's almost 30 and has a career high of less than 30 games played in a single season prior to this year Getting 7+ mil would be unprecedented for a guy like that, can't see it happening.

Guys like Lehner or Varlamov offer fairly consistent comparisons for the range he will get assuming he has a strong finish to his season and playoffs

Getting almost 11 mil for a guy like Marner was unprecedented too. Hard to predict the future but I wouldn't count on something not happening just because it hasn't happened before.

I mentioned earlier the guys that signed for 5 million last summer - those are pretty relevant comparisons IMO because they're recent. IIRC those guys were somewhat comparable to Jack but that was Jack last summer, Jack's worth has clearly gone up and I think it's highly optimistic to think it's not possible for his worth to go up by more than 1 million.

Jacob Markstrom, at the same age as Campbell right now, received 6x6 after a season with playoff success and was 4th in Vezina voting. He also had two full years as a primary starter before that which helped his case.

Linus Ullmark is 1.5 years younger than Campbell and signed a year earlier than him too. Ullmark's age in his contract year will be the same as Campbell's in the first year of his new deal. That has a lot to do with Ullmark's money (on top of Boston being desperate).

Ben Bishop received the equivalent of 5.5 x 6 on a 82.5 mill cap at the same age as Campbell in UFA, but he had 3 straight seasons as a starter with two being Vezina caliber + a Stanley Cup Finals run with a .921 save percentage + another serious playoff run with almost a .940 save percentage. Campbell has zero playoff success.

Lehner received 5x5 with a larger resume and signing at a year younger.

Campbell could have an amazing year, but it is still only one year where he has handled a starter's workload and he is 30. The market is clear for those kinds of guys, even the Vezina-caliber ones, and it is certainly not 7-8 mill. Even 6 mill, unless he is seriously sacrificing term, is probably out of reach from any cap-strapped team (there may always be a crappy team with cap space willing to overpay for him). We will see what happens if he gets the Vezina and the Conn Smythe.

All good points. But see the post below yours - that guy makes a good point as well.

 

[ACC1224]

I know Dubas likes to spend money but even he isn't paying Jack 7

I wouldn't think so either but no one thought he would pay Marner even close to what he did.
It'll be interesting.

 

[Antropovsky]

Well guess the right player went to Seattle, but maybe the right move was exposing Holl? Seems Seattle made many mistakes in their drafting, while Vegas just destroyed it.

Anyways glad Kerfoot is doing well. All things considered Dubas seems to have done OK in a trade that he should've been destined to lose considering he was essentially grabbing a high end rental player for a cup run with alot of money retained by Colorado. Didn't love the deal then but had Barrie turned out and we actually went deep then the deal would've been as good as you could expect. (Even though I thought it was too early to make the move in our teams rebuild).

 

[Antropovsky]

I wouldn't think so either but no one thought he would pay Marner even close to what he did.
It'll be interesting.

I think Dubas has learned from the Marner fiasco, he took some hits in the public for that deal and was voted GM agents would most want to deal with. 90% managers would work to change that reputation. Letting Hyman walk is an example and refusing to help Holland with the contract is another example of him shifting his image a bit.

 

[ShaneFalco]

It's obvious isn't it?

You can't hand Campbell the job because at the time there wasn't enough sample size to prove he could do it.

You can't give Hutchinson the backup because he can't do it.

And Woll wasn't getting the backup because he had 0 games of NHL experience.

They made the right move with the wrong guy.

Should have been Halak or Holtby

Someone cheaper and less injury prone for sure

Kerfoot is a versatile player who was in the wrong position to succeed IMO

 

[ACC1224]

I think Dubas has learned from the Marner fiasco, he took some hits in the public for that deal and was voted GM agents would most want to deal with. 90% managers would work to change that reputation. Letting Hyman walk is an example and refusing to help Holland with the contract is another example of him shifting his image a bit.

Yes I'm sure he's learned from his mistakes.

 

[Aashir]

He’s production will almost certainly fall.

but if he maintains 45-55 points I’d say that’s a very solid year

 

[Nylanderthal]

The player the Leafs really have to move to sign Campbell is Mrazek.

Mrazek Ritchie and one of Holl/Dermott is enough to bring back the band (soup, soup, Kase) and fill out the 21/22nd roster spots and back up goalie with 1m ish contracts. Can’t see kerf going unless they want to make a significant addition

 

[justashadowof]

Nobody is giving Campbell 6 not when there is a guy in New York putting up almost the exact same numbers at a younger age for 5.6

Jack isn't getting 6

The 25 yo goalie who has never been a UFA? The 25 yo goalie whose contracted 28 and 29 years average out as 6.8M? Is this magic 5.6 goalie going to play for all of the teams looking to sign a solid starter this summer?

 

[TMLAM34]

I doubt Campbell gets more than 5 a year. I can also see him taking a little less in order to stay a Maple Leaf.