Player Discussion Adam Fox

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The interesting thing isn't that it's if he plays at this level deep into his career then he becomes a Hall of Famer. It's that he already basically has a Hall of Fame prime locked up and another decade of being a good NHLer is probably enough to get him a plaque.
You are likely right.

Fox is probably the player I enjoy watching most on the team. The small deceptive plays all over the ice and smooth blind passes to open wingers in the offensive zone are what makes him stand apart from his peers.

But I think if I didn't watch him every game, I would fail to see what makes him a great player. It's not as flashy as other elite guys in the league.

It's more his consistency of great plays throughout a game that other NHL players could also make, but way way less often than Fox.

If he somehow drops off in performance, I could his critics running away with a "he was overrated" or a "power play merchant" type narrative just because he isn't a pure highlight machine like Makar is.
 
I mean it should be inarguable that he's a top 5 D in the league and probably top 3 at any given time and a good shot to win the Norris any given season. If he wasn't injured last year who knows where he'd have ended up. Players like that don't come along often, I thought it'd be years and years before the Rangers had someone even as good as McDonagh on their blueline after they traded him.

But yeah he's not physically imposing or super fast or have a huge slapshot,, he's just one of the best players in the NHL.

It also often shows me that some people who yell about wanting a physical D have no idea how a player needs to use their size effectively for positioning and separating players from the puck, they just want to see someone throw hits and bounce off the boards.
 
My second hockey jersey ever and and my first since 2000 or 2001 and first one that actually has a name on the back. I think if you get one jersey his is the best to get. His future is much more solid with the team. No idea what will happen to Panarin and Shesterkin.
 
He's obviously the best D the Rangers have had since Leetch and again who knows how long it'll be before they have someone as good let alone better. He could easily have a hall of fame career.

That's all to say, stop tying a boat anchor around his neck (Lindgren) and asking him to tow the team ashore
 
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My second hockey jersey ever and and my first since 2000 or 2001 and first one that actually has a name on the back. I think if you get one jersey his is the best to get. His future is much more solid with the team. No idea what will happen to Panarin and Shesterkin.
Fox was the second named jersey I got since a Lundqvist Winter Classic one, and I still get a little kick out of how I got it. Went to a game in 2019 right after they drafted Kakko and signed Fox and was excited to grab Kakko's jersey ("He's the highest draft pick I've ever been alive to see, 2OA always turn into superstars!" I told myself). The concession stand I went to at the front was out of Kakko jerseys so I "settled" for a Fox jersey instead.
 
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Fox was the second named jersey I got since a Lundqvist Winter Classic one, and I still get a little kick out of how I got it. Went to a game in 2019 right after they drafted Kakko and signed Fox and was excited to grab Kakko's jersey ("He's the highest draft pick I've ever been alive to see, 2OA always turn into superstars!" I told myself). The concession stand I went to at the front was out of Kakko jerseys so I "settled" for a Fox jersey instead.

I had the opposite happen with my t-shirt. Wanted a Fox t-shirt at the garden but they didn't have them and I got a Kakko.
 
Fox will play in 4 Nations and the Olympics and look like a Norris dman again playing with a competent partner.

Not saying he's not responsible for his performance lately. It looks like he's doing too much out there. Our entire team goes out of sync when they try to take on the entire team individually instead of working 5v5. Just look at all the forwards cheating out of the zone.

Also, did this guy fully recover from repeated knee injuries? He just doesn't have the same agility which was his only skating strength.
 
I know Fox has never been a burner, but he looks slower out there. I havent delved too much into these stats and I know its early. (From NHL EDGE)
Last season Top Skating Speed (mph) 21.25
This season: 19.88

Maybe its recovering from the knee, maybe its too early, or maybe hes out of shape. Just an observation.
 
Fox will play in 4 Nations and the Olympics and look like a Norris dman again playing with a competent partner.

Not saying he's not responsible for his performance lately. It looks like he's doing too much out there. Our entire team goes out of sync when they try to take on the entire team individually instead of working 5v5. Just look at all the forwards cheating out of the zone.

Also, did this guy fully recover from repeated knee injuries? He just doesn't have the same agility which was his only skating strength.
I’m with you. It’s comical to me that he’s catching so much heat while being compared to Makar and Hughes who both play with legitimate top 4 partners, while he’s forced to drag around Lindgren who sucks and he looked fine with Miller who most people want to trade.
 
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I know Fox has never been a burner, but he looks slower out there. I havent delved too much into these stats and I know its early. (From NHL EDGE)
Last season Top Skating Speed (mph) 21.25
This season: 19.88

Maybe its recovering from the knee, maybe its too early, or maybe hes out of shape. Just an observation.
He’s recovering from pigging out and not exercising over the summer. NYR players contracts should have clauses prohibiting players from getting married or having kids i swear
 
I’m with you. It’s comical to me that he’s catching so much heat while being compared to Makar and Hughes who both play with legitimate top 4 partners, while he’s forced to drag around Lindgren who sucks and he looked fine with Miller who most people want to trade.
It' not really that comical. We can talk about how those players are dragging him down, especially in the D-zone where you scramble and can't get the puck out. But when it comes to Hughes and Makar, they're still making individual plays that end up successful for their teams. It's been a while since Fox has made an individual play leading to success. Lindgren obviously has to go. Miller looks lost. Fox can definitely step his game up when it comes to creating plays. His body language is absolutely awful.
 
FYI: This is going to be a very long post. I'm just going to say my piece once on this, feel free to ignore, it's going to be me talking up this player which nobody wants but I've gotta vent somewhere so sue me.

Screenshot 2025-02-14 at 12.24.47 PM.png


Screenshot 2025-02-14 at 12.27.27 PM.png

_________________________________________________________

So, to begin with, what're these screen grabs? They're here to address a couple budding narratives I'm seeing catching a ton of momentum on these boards this year.

First of all: Adam Fox's immanent, if not active, physical decline. Fox has gotten slower and can't skate as well as he used to. The knee injury from last year has clearly been hampering him. He's too slow now to do what he used to.

Setting aside the bigger conversation about footspeed as a proxy for effectiveness, and whether and to what degree that line of thinking has any merit in today's game where somany star players are not fleet of foot:

In this image, we see on the left Fox's 2022-23 season, the season prior to his knee injury, and a year he finished second in Norris voting. On the right is Fox's current season, the one where his skating has so obviously and so gratuitously 'lost a step.'

The graph in the middle shows almost no difference either in Fox's top skating speed, or 20mph bursts. Getting into the weeds with it, I'll list a breakdown of the changes in Fox's skating data from that season to this one (percentiles shown because GP are different, obviosuly):

Top Skating Speed:
21.05mph (below 50th percentile) to 21.33mph (below 50th percentile)

22+mph Bursts:
0 to 0 (below 50th pecentile)

20-22mph Bursts:
14 (below 50th percentile) to 8 (below 50th percentile)

18-20mph Bursts:
217 (65th percentile) to 164 (64th percentile)

Nearly identical skating profiles here. Top speed is actually .3mph better. But the point is that there is almost literally no change in Fox's skating speed from his last great season and this one.

This goes for his shot as well. I'm not going to get granular here, but look it up yourself. His shot speed, volume. Nearly identical. Where he shoots from?

In High-Danger locations, he's moved from the 97th percentile to the 91st. From Mid-Range, he's stayed in the 96th percentile. So he's still getting shots from in close.

His shooting percentage has gone from 31% from High Danger to 0%. From Mid-Range, 6% to 3%. From Long-Range, an identical 3.6%.

To summarize: Fox is skating as fast as he did pre-injury and when he was widely considered a dominant and no-worse than 2nd best defenseman on the planet. Not only has his skating not declined according to any tracking data, his shot speed, volume, and location have stayed largely the same. In fact, the single biggest difference in his year-over-year goal scoring has been going from two straight seasons scoring on 31-33% (basically 1 in 3 ) shots from High-Danger locations to 0% this year. Scoring from within 5 feet of the net is not predicated on having a hard shot.
________________________________________________________________

Our second screen grab is about the other narrative. That whatever the reason, Fox has fallen off. We've seen that Fox physically profiles nearly identically to his last, great season, but what's changed in the results he's getting?

At 5v5 Fox ranks (among 178 NHL defenseman who've played >500mins):

23rd in RelGF/60
9th in RelGA/60
3rd in RelGF±/60
2nd in RelxGF/60
3rd in RelxGA/60
1st in RelxGF±/60
This season, Fox has had a bigger positive impact on his team's ability to generate scoring chances and suppress chances against at 5 on 5 than any defenseman in the world. In fact, the gap between his impact (.85 RelxGF±/60) and 4th place Quinn Hughes (.55) is the same as the difference between Hughes and 25th best Gostistbehere (.35).​
Now, you might say, that's great, but what about actual goals? Chances are a fluid category, who knows how xGF is weighed and determined?​
His impact on his team's goal differential 5 on 5 puts him 3rd in the league (RelGF±/60). And contrary to popular belief, that impact is most greatly felt defensively.​

62nd in On Ice SH%
87th in On Ice SV%

Fox is not benefiting from any spectacular play from his goalies (we knew that already). Nor is his team shooting the lights out with him on the ice.​

10th in P/60
2nd in A1/60

Fox is still in the 95th percentile among these dmen in 5v5 points. He's at the very top of his position (.01 behind Dahlin, tied with Q. Hughes) in primary assists at 5v5, so he's not stat padding with secondaries.​

14th in ixG/60
t150th in G/60
152nd in iSH%

As we've seen already, Fox is still getting chances at an excellent rate from High-Danger and Mid-Range locations. He's inside the top 15 defensemen in the amount of goals he himself has been expected to score. But he's 152nd in shooting percentage. An astronomical drop-off which we've seen has largely come from in-tight and so is more safely assumed to be 'luck' or at least some other factor not identified or discussed--but certainly, not likely to be his shot getting worse.​

Now for where a big influence on the stats are coming from. On the PP (among 37 defensemen who've played >100mins):

12th in P/60
5th in A1/60
26th in G/60
8th in ixG/60
24th in iSH%

So, again, it's a lot of the same story as above. Fox, in spite of how 'awful' he's been on the PP, is still producing at the rate of an upper-eschelon PPQB. He's 5th in primary assists per 60 and 12th in points. He's once again expected to score at a top-10 rate, but isn't coming close. So, whatever its cause, this shooting inefficiency hasn't stopped him from scoring PP points at an impressive clip.​

27th in RelGF/60
9th in RelxGF/60
3rd in xGF/60
20th in GF/60
30th in SH%

As far as what's happening on the ice during Fox's PP minutes, we're seeing the same old story keep repeating itself, except here, there's an even more notable gap between the chances being generated and the goals coming from them. Among his PPQB peers, Fox's PP unit is generating expected goals better than anyone else's save Dougie Hamilton and She Theodore (Vegas is 2nd in PP% overall as I type this , NJ is 5th, Rangers are 20th), ahead of notables like Bouchard, Karlsson, Josi, Makar, Hughes (I mean, anyone except the two I already said, I'm just listing for effect).​
You get the point. Fox is not only getting offensive and defensive results that soundly place him in the top-5 defensemen in the world this year, he's actually due better results than he's getting.

And don't @ me: I said at the start this was a Fox glazing post, and if you've made it this far I appreciate it.
______________________________________________________

Whatever the story you want to tell about Fox is. If he's simply in decline, injured, or less effective because he got married... still, we have to add the clause taht in a "down year" he's inarguably a top 10 player at his position; realistically top 5; and one shooting percentage correcting binge away from making a run at a 5th consecutive Norris finalist-worthy season. That's his "bad year."

I understand that we, as NYC sports fans, are miserable and love to hate our own. It's also been an absolutely terrible year to be a Rangers fan. Other stars on this team definitely deserve it at times, and even when they don't, the amount of times they did, already justifies it ahead of time when they don't. And Fox isn't perfect, nor do I begrudge anybody having something to criticize or question about his game.

I don't think Igor really had haters (Snowblind excluded) until the word leaked about him insisting on being the highest paid goalie in history on principle, getting himself that deal, and subsequently posting up a mediocre season.

Panarin was the biggest UFA deal ever signed. It may still be. He's had years where he's earned it, but he's never had postseasons where he has. And then you've got the years like this one, where he is infuriatingly selfish and detrimental to the team. He has barely been a ppg player since October.

Zibanejad had some legitimately ghastly results for almost a full season.

Kreider has been AHL quality.

But Fox? Maybe I'm out to lunch, but to me this is a player who forced himself onto our team, not at the team's expense, but at the expense of other teams. When he became the youngest Norris winner since Orr, he could've bent us over the barrel, could've inked a shorter term deal to maximize and be coming up on UFA soon like Makar did, like McAvoy did. He signed for a below-market value for 8 years. His first playoff run, he played at a level beyond any defenseman in a Rangers jersey has reached in a single postseason sans Leetch or McDonagh in 2014. He plays with whomever. He makes every player around him better. He rarely misses time and plays through injuries. He blocks shots, kills penalties, and has authored probably the greatest PP units in Rangers history.

I don't really care about HHOF arguements, Leetch vs, Hughes vs, Makar vs, etc. Frankly, I keep having to pinch myself that we have a player on our roster who is a legitimate star who warrants those kinds of comparisons, who plays the game at both ends of the rink, who leaves money on the table to play here, and who gets results on the ice every season.

Like if Fox is really cooked this year, and this year is what cooked is. We should be ecstatic. You could not find a player with a floor like this at 26 years old on the open market signing a contract for less that 12mil a season at this point.

If he wore any other jersey, the media would love this guy. It's a shame that it seems more and more to me, that's true about Rangers' fans too. Just sayin.
 
FYI: This is going to be a very long post. I'm just going to say my piece once on this, feel free to ignore, it's going to be me talking up this player which nobody wants but I've gotta vent somewhere so sue me.

View attachment 977269

View attachment 977270
_________________________________________________________

So, to begin with, what're these screen grabs? They're here to address a couple budding narratives I'm seeing catching a ton of momentum on these boards this year.

First of all: Adam Fox's immanent, if not active, physical decline. Fox has gotten slower and can't skate as well as he used to. The knee injury from last year has clearly been hampering him. He's too slow now to do what he used to.

Setting aside the bigger conversation about footspeed as a proxy for effectiveness, and whether and to what degree that line of thinking has any merit in today's game where somany star players are not fleet of foot:

In this image, we see on the left Fox's 2022-23 season, the season prior to his knee injury, and a year he finished second in Norris voting. On the right is Fox's current season, the one where his skating has so obviously and so gratuitously 'lost a step.'

The graph in the middle shows almost no difference either in Fox's top skating speed, or 20mph bursts. Getting into the weeds with it, I'll list a breakdown of the changes in Fox's skating data from that season to this one (percentiles shown because GP are different, obviosuly):

Top Skating Speed:
21.05mph (below 50th percentile) to 21.33mph (below 50th percentile)

22+mph Bursts:
0 to 0 (below 50th pecentile)

20-22mph Bursts:
14 (below 50th percentile) to 8 (below 50th percentile)

18-20mph Bursts:
217 (65th percentile) to 164 (64th percentile)

Nearly identical skating profiles here. Top speed is actually .3mph better. But the point is that there is almost literally no change in Fox's skating speed from his last great season and this one.

This goes for his shot as well. I'm not going to get granular here, but look it up yourself. His shot speed, volume. Nearly identical. Where he shoots from?

In High-Danger locations, he's moved from the 97th percentile to the 91st. From Mid-Range, he's stayed in the 96th percentile. So he's still getting shots from in close.

His shooting percentage has gone from 31% from High Danger to 0%. From Mid-Range, 6% to 3%. From Long-Range, an identical 3.6%.

To summarize: Fox is skating as fast as he did pre-injury and when he was widely considered a dominant and no-worse than 2nd best defenseman on the planet. Not only has his skating not declined according to any tracking data, his shot speed, volume, and location have stayed largely the same. In fact, the single biggest difference in his year-over-year goal scoring has been going from two straight seasons scoring on 31-33% (basically 1 in 3 ) shots from High-Danger locations to 0% this year. Scoring from within 5 feet of the net is not predicated on having a hard shot.
________________________________________________________________

Our second screen grab is about the other narrative. That whatever the reason, Fox has fallen off. We've seen that Fox physically profiles nearly identically to his last, great season, but what's changed in the results he's getting?

At 5v5 Fox ranks (among 178 NHL defenseman who've played >500mins):

23rd in RelGF/60
9th in RelGA/60
3rd in RelGF±/60
2nd in RelxGF/60
3rd in RelxGA/60
1st in RelxGF±/60
This season, Fox has had a bigger positive impact on his team's ability to generate scoring chances and suppress chances against at 5 on 5 than any defenseman in the world. In fact, the gap between his impact (.85 RelxGF±/60) and 4th place Quinn Hughes (.55) is the same as the difference between Hughes and 25th best Gostistbehere (.35).​
Now, you might say, that's great, but what about actual goals? Chances are a fluid category, who knows how xGF is weighed and determined?​
His impact on his team's goal differential 5 on 5 puts him 3rd in the league (RelGF±/60). And contrary to popular belief, that impact is most greatly felt defensively.​

62nd in On Ice SH%
87th in On Ice SV%

Fox is not benefiting from any spectacular play from his goalies (we knew that already). Nor is his team shooting the lights out with him on the ice.​

10th in P/60
2nd in A1/60

Fox is still in the 95th percentile among these dmen in 5v5 points. He's at the very top of his position (.01 behind Dahlin, tied with Q. Hughes) in primary assists at 5v5, so he's not stat padding with secondaries.​

14th in ixG/60
t150th in G/60
152nd in iSH%

As we've seen already, Fox is still getting chances at an excellent rate from High-Danger and Mid-Range locations. He's inside the top 15 defensemen in the amount of goals he himself has been expected to score. But he's 152nd in shooting percentage. An astronomical drop-off which we've seen has largely come from in-tight and so is more safely assumed to be 'luck' or at least some other factor not identified or discussed--but certainly, not likely to be his shot getting worse.​

Now for where a big influence on the stats are coming from. On the PP (among 37 defensemen who've played >100mins):

12th in P/60
5th in A1/60
26th in G/60
8th in ixG/60
24th in iSH%

So, again, it's a lot of the same story as above. Fox, in spite of how 'awful' he's been on the PP, is still producing at the rate of an upper-eschelon PPQB. He's 5th in primary assists per 60 and 12th in points. He's once again expected to score at a top-10 rate, but isn't coming close. So, whatever its cause, this shooting inefficiency hasn't stopped him from scoring PP points at an impressive clip.​

27th in RelGF/60
9th in RelxGF/60
3rd in xGF/60
20th in GF/60
30th in SH%

As far as what's happening on the ice during Fox's PP minutes, we're seeing the same old story keep repeating itself, except here, there's an even more notable gap between the chances being generated and the goals coming from them. Among his PPQB peers, Fox's PP unit is generating expected goals better than anyone else's save Dougie Hamilton and She Theodore (Vegas is 2nd in PP% overall as I type this , NJ is 5th, Rangers are 20th), ahead of notables like Bouchard, Karlsson, Josi, Makar, Hughes (I mean, anyone except the two I already said, I'm just listing for effect).​
You get the point. Fox is not only getting offensive and defensive results that soundly place him in the top-5 defensemen in the world this year, he's actually due better results than he's getting.

And don't @ me: I said at the start this was a Fox glazing post, and if you've made it this far I appreciate it.
______________________________________________________

Whatever the story you want to tell about Fox is. If he's simply in decline, injured, or less effective because he got married... still, we have to add the clause taht in a "down year" he's inarguably a top 10 player at his position; realistically top 5; and one shooting percentage correcting binge away from making a run at a 5th consecutive Norris finalist-worthy season. That's his "bad year."

I understand that we, as NYC sports fans, are miserable and love to hate our own. It's also been an absolutely terrible year to be a Rangers fan. Other stars on this team definitely deserve it at times, and even when they don't, the amount of times they did, already justifies it ahead of time when they don't. And Fox isn't perfect, nor do I begrudge anybody having something to criticize or question about his game.

I don't think Igor really had haters (Snowblind excluded) until the word leaked about him insisting on being the highest paid goalie in history on principle, getting himself that deal, and subsequently posting up a mediocre season.

Panarin was the biggest UFA deal ever signed. It may still be. He's had years where he's earned it, but he's never had postseasons where he has. And then you've got the years like this one, where he is infuriatingly selfish and detrimental to the team. He has barely been a ppg player since October.

Zibanejad had some legitimately ghastly results for almost a full season.

Kreider has been AHL quality.

But Fox? Maybe I'm out to lunch, but to me this is a player who forced himself onto our team, not at the team's expense, but at the expense of other teams. When he became the youngest Norris winner since Orr, he could've bent us over the barrel, could've inked a shorter term deal to maximize and be coming up on UFA soon like Makar did, like McAvoy did. He signed for a below-market value for 8 years. His first playoff run, he played at a level beyond any defenseman in a Rangers jersey has reached in a single postseason sans Leetch or McDonagh in 2014. He plays with whomever. He makes every player around him better. He rarely misses time and plays through injuries. He blocks shots, kills penalties, and has authored probably the greatest PP units in Rangers history.

I don't really care about HHOF arguements, Leetch vs, Hughes vs, Makar vs, etc. Frankly, I keep having to pinch myself that we have a player on our roster who is a legitimate star who warrants those kinds of comparisons, who plays the game at both ends of the rink, who leaves money on the table to play here, and who gets results on the ice every season.

Like if Fox is really cooked this year, and this year is what cooked is. We should be ecstatic. You could not find a player with a floor like this at 26 years old on the open market signing a contract for less that 12mil a season at this point.

If he wore any other jersey, the media would love this guy. It's a shame that it seems more and more to me, that's true about Rangers' fans too. Just sayin.

Appreciate all the stats and your effort. When I watch Fox I do not see a top 5 or top 10 Dman this season nor in last seasons playoffs. Could my eyes be misleading me? Yes. Could it be because I prefer a much more physical smothering guy in his own zone? Yes. Could it be because I sometimes do not like the effort I see? Yes. I could be 100% wrong but it is what it is. I do think he has played better in the past. I also think the league may be catching up to some of his warts. That does not mean that I do not think he can come back and play better. I hope he does. I think he can.
 
Appreciate all the stats and your effort. When I watch Fox I do not see a top 5 or top 10 Dman this season nor in last seasons playoffs. Could my eyes be misleading me? Yes. Could it be because I prefer a much more physical smothering guy in his own zone? Yes. Could it be because I sometimes do not like the effort I see? Yes. I could be 100% wrong but it is what it is. I do think he has played better in the past. I also think the league may be catching up to some of his warts. That does not mean that I do not think he can come back and play better. I hope he does. I think he can.
I just need to know why this hasn't manifested in any of the metrics that he controls? If he looks so bad and gets beat so often, where is it manifesting? In Zib's shooting%?
 
I think Fox’s body language when things don’t go well plays into the narrative a bit and I also think the long playoff runs and knee issues have prevented him from really putting in work to improve his skating. Just my two cents
 
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I just need to know why this hasn't manifested in any of the metrics that he controls? If he looks so bad and gets beat so often, where is it manifesting? In Zib's shooting%?
I'm not a "metrics" guy especially ones that are more correlation than causation. I see opposing guys play like he is not even there on the side boards and end boards at times. I see him have issues in front of our net. I believe he has been killing less penalties lately. Last night the coaches did not have him on the PK. If I was an opposing coach I would not even guard him at the point. I would encourage him to shoot from distance. Last night it looked like he was not a threat at all from the point. Also when the puck goes down to his own end on the PP I see him take his time getting back there when other guys skated hard to get there last night. I feel like Fox knows he is not fast and skates like that almost because he doesn't want look slow. I do believe Fox has been better in the past and I do hope he cane get back to that level. Because I do have concerns about him in our own end I would like a physical shutdown D guy to play with him if it is possible to find one anymore. These are just my own opinions I could be wrong and I hope I am because I like Fox.
 
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