FYI: This is going to be a very long post. I'm just going to say my piece once on this, feel free to ignore, it's going to be me talking up this player which nobody wants but I've gotta vent somewhere so sue me.
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So, to begin with, what're these screen grabs? They're here to address a couple budding narratives I'm seeing catching a ton of momentum on these boards this year.
First of all: Adam Fox's immanent, if not active, physical decline. Fox has gotten slower and can't skate as well as he used to. The knee injury from last year has clearly been hampering him. He's too slow now to do what he used to.
Setting aside the bigger conversation about footspeed as a proxy for effectiveness, and whether and to what degree that line of thinking has any merit in today's game where somany star players are
not fleet of foot:
In this image, we see on the left Fox's 2022-23 season, the season prior to his knee injury, and a year he finished second in Norris voting. On the right is Fox's current season, the one where his skating has so obviously and so gratuitously 'lost a step.'
The graph in the middle shows almost no difference either in Fox's top skating speed, or 20mph bursts. Getting into the weeds with it, I'll list a breakdown of the changes in Fox's skating data from that season to this one (percentiles shown because GP are different, obviosuly):
Top Skating Speed:
21.05mph (below 50th percentile) to 21.33mph (below 50th percentile)
22+mph Bursts:
0 to 0 (below 50th pecentile)
20-22mph Bursts:
14 (below 50th percentile) to 8 (below 50th percentile)
18-20mph Bursts:
217 (65th percentile) to 164 (64th percentile)
Nearly identical skating profiles here. Top speed is actually .3mph
better. But the point is that there is almost literally no change in Fox's skating speed from his last great season and this one.
This goes for his shot as well. I'm not going to get granular here, but look it up yourself. His shot speed, volume. Nearly identical. Where he shoots from?
In High-Danger locations, he's moved from the 97th percentile to the 91st. From Mid-Range, he's stayed in the 96th percentile. So he's still getting shots from in close.
His shooting percentage has gone from 31% from High Danger to 0%. From Mid-Range, 6% to 3%. From Long-Range, an identical 3.6%.
To summarize: Fox is skating as fast as he did pre-injury and when he was widely considered a dominant and no-worse than 2nd best defenseman on the planet. Not only has his skating not declined according to any tracking data, his shot speed, volume, and location have stayed largely the same. In fact, the single biggest difference in his year-over-year goal scoring has been going from two straight seasons scoring on 31-33% (basically 1 in 3 ) shots from High-Danger locations to 0% this year. Scoring from within 5 feet of the net is not predicated on having a hard shot.
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Our second screen grab is about the other narrative. That whatever the reason, Fox has fallen off. We've seen that Fox physically profiles nearly identically to his last, great season, but what's changed in the results he's getting?
At 5v5 Fox ranks (among 178 NHL defenseman who've played >500mins):
23rd in RelGF/60
9th in RelGA/60
3rd in RelGF±/60
2nd in RelxGF/60
3rd in RelxGA/60
1st in RelxGF±/60
This season, Fox has had a bigger positive impact on his team's ability to generate scoring chances and suppress chances against at 5 on 5 than any defenseman in the world. In fact, the gap between his impact (.85 RelxGF±/60) and 4th place Quinn Hughes (.55) is the same as the difference between Hughes and 25th best Gostistbehere (.35).
Now, you might say, that's great, but what about actual goals? Chances are a fluid category, who knows how xGF is weighed and determined?
His impact on his team's goal differential 5 on 5 puts him 3rd in the league (RelGF±/60). And contrary to popular belief, that impact is most greatly felt defensively.
62nd in On Ice SH%
87th in On Ice SV%
Fox is not benefiting from any spectacular play from his goalies (we knew that already). Nor is his team shooting the lights out with him on the ice.
10th in P/60
2nd in A1/60
Fox is still in the 95th percentile among these dmen in 5v5 points. He's at the very top of his position (.01 behind Dahlin, tied with Q. Hughes) in primary assists at 5v5, so he's not stat padding with secondaries.
14th in ixG/60
t150th in G/60
152nd in iSH%
As we've seen already, Fox is still getting chances at an excellent rate from High-Danger and Mid-Range locations. He's inside the top 15 defensemen in the amount of goals he himself has been expected to score. But he's 152nd in shooting percentage. An astronomical drop-off which we've seen has largely come from in-tight and so is more safely assumed to be 'luck' or at least some other factor not identified or discussed--but certainly, not likely to be his shot getting worse.
Now for where a big influence on the stats are coming from.
On the PP (among 37 defensemen who've played >100mins):
12th in P/60
5th in A1/60
26th in G/60
8th in ixG/60
24th in iSH%
So, again, it's a lot of the same story as above. Fox, in spite of how 'awful' he's been on the PP, is still producing at the rate of an upper-eschelon PPQB. He's 5th in primary assists per 60 and 12th in points. He's once again expected to score at a top-10 rate, but isn't coming close. So, whatever its cause, this shooting inefficiency hasn't stopped him from scoring PP points at an impressive clip.
27th in RelGF/60
9th in RelxGF/60
3rd in xGF/60
20th in GF/60
30th in SH%
As far as what's happening on the ice during Fox's PP minutes, we're seeing the same old story keep repeating itself, except here, there's an even more notable gap between the chances being generated and the goals coming from them. Among his PPQB peers, Fox's PP unit is generating expected goals better than anyone else's save Dougie Hamilton and She Theodore (Vegas is 2nd in PP% overall as I type this , NJ is 5th, Rangers are 20th), ahead of notables like Bouchard, Karlsson, Josi, Makar, Hughes (I mean, anyone except the two I already said, I'm just listing for effect).
You get the point. Fox is not only getting offensive and defensive results that soundly place him in the top-5 defensemen in the world this year, he's actually due better results than he's getting.
And don't @ me: I said at the start this was a Fox glazing post, and if you've made it this far I appreciate it.
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Whatever the story you want to tell about Fox is. If he's simply in decline, injured, or less effective because he got married... still, we have to add the clause taht in a "down year" he's inarguably a top 10 player at his position; realistically top 5; and one shooting percentage correcting binge away from making a run at a
5th consecutive Norris finalist-worthy season. That's his
"bad year."
I understand that we, as NYC sports fans, are miserable and love to hate our own. It's also been an absolutely terrible year to be a Rangers fan. Other stars on this team definitely deserve it at times, and even when they don't, the amount of times they did, already justifies it ahead of time when they don't. And Fox isn't perfect, nor do I begrudge anybody having something to criticize or question about his game.
I don't think Igor really had haters (Snowblind excluded) until the word leaked about him insisting on being the highest paid goalie in history
on principle, getting himself that deal, and subsequently posting up a mediocre season.
Panarin was the biggest UFA deal ever signed. It may still be. He's had years where he's earned it, but he's never had postseasons where he has. And
then you've got the years like this one, where he is infuriatingly selfish and detrimental to the team. He has barely been a ppg player since October.
Zibanejad had some legitimately ghastly results for almost a full season.
Kreider has been AHL quality.
But Fox? Maybe I'm out to lunch, but to me this is a player who forced himself onto our team, not at the team's expense, but at the expense of
other teams. When he became the youngest Norris winner since Orr, he could've bent us over the barrel, could've inked a shorter term deal to maximize and be coming up on UFA soon like Makar did, like McAvoy did. He signed for a below-market value for 8 years. His first playoff run, he played at a level beyond any defenseman in a Rangers jersey has reached in a single postseason sans Leetch or McDonagh in 2014. He plays with whomever. He makes every player around him better. He rarely misses time and plays through injuries. He blocks shots, kills penalties, and has authored probably the greatest PP units in Rangers history.
I don't really care about HHOF arguements, Leetch vs, Hughes vs, Makar vs, etc. Frankly, I keep having to pinch myself that we have a player on our roster who is a legitimate star who warrants those kinds of comparisons, who plays the game at both ends of the rink, who
leaves money on the table to play here, and who gets results on the ice every season.
Like if Fox is really cooked this year, and this year is what cooked is. We should be ecstatic. You could not find a player with a floor like this at 26 years old on the open market signing a contract for less that 12mil a season at this point.
If he wore any other jersey, the media would love this guy. It's a shame that it seems more and more to me, that's true about Rangers' fans too. Just sayin.