Speculation: Acq/ Rost. Bldg./ Cap Part XXIX

[CapitalsCupReality]

I don't disagree about not forcing a trade. To the last point, it's been four years since his 100 point season and his intangibles have disappeared with his production.

I used to think he had Selke potential. Not anymore.

Such a bad year for 19 in his own end, but I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that he's just having a bad year there. That said, Selke winners usually show a lot of pride and focus in their own end and Backstrom hasn't even shown that this season.

 

[BobRouse]

Even with his recent inadequacy at ES, Backstrom to Kesler is a pretty big downgrade. If there's an opportunity to seize, you seize it, but you can't just "find" one because you want to. I would trade Backstrom under the right circumstances, but it probably is worth seeing how he might respond to a legitimate coach first/instead.

Edit: I would probably do it for Subban but there would have to be something else significant worked out to get an actually good center or Plekanec coming back.

What would these "right circumstances" be? If that means "drastic overpayment" then sure.

Backstrom had 44pts in 42 games the year before last, 48pts in 48 games last year and has 69pts in 72 games this year. His very worst year he recorded 65pts in 72 games.

Thats roughly a PPG over the last 3 years. How many players can claim to have that?

Just because he hasn't reached his 100pt peak since we should trade him??

 

[EroCaps]

Trading Backstrom might be the single most idiotic personnel move this team could make.

As others have mentioned, the problem is Oates.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

It might be dumb, but I think a good architect looks at ALL potential moves. That said, I can't see a big enough overpay incoming to move Backstrom.

 

[Liberati0n*]

What would these "right circumstances" be? If that means "drastic overpayment" then sure.

Backstrom had 44pts in 42 games the year before last, 48pts in 48 games last year and has 69pts in 72 games this year. His very worst year he recorded 65pts in 72 games.

Thats roughly a PPG over the last 3 years. How many players can claim to have that?

Just because he hasn't reached his 100pt peak since we should trade him??

No. 100 points was an anomaly. It's his even strength production and, especially, play that are the problem. He is a truly excellent PP player (which is how he has so many points this year), but the PP's success is more based on design than the players (except Ovechkin). He raises the PP success rate, but the PP raises his points even more. Just being a ~PPG player doesn't tell the whole/real story.

The right circumstances would be a good top-six center was coming back in the trade or a concurrent one and the return was enough (debatable whether it's "over"payment).

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

If we trade Backstrom I think people here are looking to get a top end D back. That will fill one hole by creating a giant crater in another positon.

We trade him for a 1B/2C in a package where we get some other stuff?

I think the truth is "Backstrom has been playind da lazy stuff! Timez to trade him! I is awezome at internetz GM!! WIN!"

So he's either a top end, elite C as you say in which case he very well could and would return a top end D or he's not in which case trading him for another 1B/2C + other stuff is actually good value. Which one is it? Can't have it both ways.

Also, I feel like I'm talking to a wall. No one (or at least not me) is saying trade 19 to create another big hole on the roster. Would you not trade Backstrom for Weber or Subban + Stasny? I'm only saying trade 19 IF you could sign Stasny and Grabo and still have a solid 1-2-3 punch with Stasny-Grabo-Fehr down the center. This team is a bonafide contender with just a few moves and at this point I think you're being obtuse if you won't look at making a major move to improve the team.

I think the truth is you won't admit that 19 isn't the player he was and he hasn't been for 3 years. He isn't producing at ES with or without Ovechkin on his line. His defense has been subpar and his speed has certainly taken a hit. He's had a stretch of games here and there where he was that dominant player but by and large since 2011 he hasn't been the same Nicky Backstrom, except on the PP. He was the worst player on our team against NYR in the play-offs last year.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

For all those saying trading Backstrom would be the worst move this franchise could make, do you think he's the same player he was 4 years ago and it's Oates fault and he'll go back to the same player under a better coach or do you think the days of Nicky being a 100 point & potential Selke finalist are gone?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I'd absolutely consider a deal around Backstrom/Weber, IF you can get a Stastny or other capable replacement, but even then, it's a considerable skill/production dropoff at face value. Now maybe Stastny clicks with Ovy and suddenly he's closer to a PPG C, who knows....

 

[Carlzner]

For all those saying trading Backstrom would be the worst move this franchise could make, do you think he's the same player he was 4 years ago and it's Oates fault and he'll go back to the same player under a better coach or do you think the days of Nicky being a 100 point & potential Selke finalist are gone?

I think it's stupid to decide either way before hiring a competent GM and a competent coach.

 

[BobRouse]

Our whole team has been struggling at ES. Backstrom and Ovechkin leading the front.

Fact is that our Ferrari is struggling to go fast and its not getting traction! Perhaps is the fact that we are taking it 4 wheeling as opposed to the Ferrari itself?

We are trying to become a dump and chase team that limits turnovers in the neutral zone. The way to become that is to remove risk and thereby strictly limiting any creativity. That is why guys like Chimera and Ward are doing just fine. that was their game anyhow.

But under our passive philosophy we will just wait for our PP to score. The way Oates is coaching is how it we got coached under Ron Wilson for the most part. Play passive and capitalize on our PP. We did this under Hunter too.

Another thing...scoring is down across the board. In 2009-2010 there were 7 players who put up 90+ pts. This year there MIGHT be 2 if Getzlaf comes through. Scoring is reaching levels of the dead puck era now. 100 pts isn't a great barometer to judge a player by.

 

[hb13xchamps]

I'd absolutely consider a deal around Backstrom/Weber, IF you can get a Stastny or other capable replacement, but even then, it's a considerable skill/production dropoff at face value. Now maybe Stastny clicks with Ovy and suddenly he's closer to a PPG C, who knows....

I agree with this. If we someone signed Stastny first and then shipped out Backstrom+ for Weber or Subban I would be in agreement. The problem with Subban is going to be his salary demands. He wants to get paid big time.

Edit: Just going through some CapGeek scenarios and if we paid Subban the 8 million he wants or acquired Weber, we most likely use the last compliance buyout on Laich. That gives us an extra 4.5 million to work with.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

I think it's stupid to decide either way before hiring a competent GM and a competent coach.

How much longer are you willing to wait?

 

[g00n]

I'd rather fix 19 than trade him but I don't know that Oates is the guy to do it. I would still listen to any offer for any player, of course.

 

[txpd]

He is a truly excellent PP player (which is how he has so many points this year), but the PP's success is more based on design than the players (except Ovechkin). He raises the PP success rate, but the PP raises his points even more.

I am not buying this. This is like saying any decent player slotted into Backstrom's power play position and getting his minutes would be as or near or even more successful because the system creates the success.

A good coach creates the environment to maximize the skills of his players. This power play creates conditions that allows Backstrom options. Backstrom must both make the right decisions and then make quality passes. None of Grabovsk, Johansson or Ribeiro without Backstrom have been nearly as productive as Backstrom without them.

Oates was the secondary assist on so many Bondra PPG's with Gonchar the primary. Its totally unfair to think Linden could have done as well had he been there all that time instead of Oates.

I think Backstrom at ES is having both system problems and concussion related problems. The power play? Its Backstrom that makes the system look good, not the other way around.

 

[BobRouse]

I agree with this. If we someone signed Stastny first and then shipped out Backstrom+ for Weber or Subban I would be in agreement. The problem with Subban is going to be his salary demands. He wants to get paid big time.

Edit: Just going through some CapGeek scenarios and if we paid Subban the 8 million he wants or acquired Weber, we most likely use the last compliance buyout on Laich. That gives us an extra 4.5 million to work with.

What exactly is "Backstrom+"? What would Stastny's contract look like? Are we sure Stastny would even want to play here? He's definitely a downgrade from Backstrom and is a bit older and will get more money.

I know Weber is making a bazillion $$ over infinite years. Shallow UFA pool+more cap space for everyone=Inflated prices. Lets say:

Backstrom+Burakovsky+1st for Weber and then Stastny for 8 years $64 million ($8 mil cap hit). Would you do that? Thats a long commitment.

There are alot of variables and this is a very high risk venture that if it doesn't work out will set us back a good deal.

 

[txpd]

For all those saying trading Backstrom would be the worst move this franchise could make, do you think he's the same player he was 4 years ago and it's Oates fault and he'll go back to the same player under a better coach or do you think the days of Nicky being a 100 point & potential Selke finalist are gone?

I think his game has fallen off to an extent. even with that, though, there are maybe a handful or two centers that might be better than him right now and less than a half dozen when his "A" game is on display. You don't replace him with a Jason Spezza.

my view is that its the concussion followed by the chicken wing to the head that he got this season that is the big issue.

remember when so many thought that replacing semin's production with either not a problem or no big deal? replacing backstrom just won't happen. it will be a long period of decades where they have their best center a tier below backstrom.

 

[Capitlols]

I'm more worried about OV going forward than Backstrom.

 

[maybam]

It's hard to fathom the desire of this fanbase to jettison talented players. We've gotten markedly worse since we've started doing this - yet some want to continue. Baffling.

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

I think his game has fallen off to an extent. even with that, though, there are maybe a handful or two centers that might be better than him right now and less than a half dozen when his "A" game is on display. You don't replace him with a Jason Spezza.

my view is that its the concussion followed by the chicken wing to the head that he got this season that is the big issue.

remember when so many thought that replacing semin's production with either not a problem or no big deal? replacing backstrom just won't happen. it will be a long period of decades where they have their best center a tier below backstrom.

The problem with Semin wasn't losing him. The problem was not trading him when he had value. Just like it was with Green. Just like it could be with Backstrom.

Tied for 95th at even strength scoring. Do you gamble on him playing like he did 4 years ago or do you cash in?

 

[Langway]

I think its emotional. Any manager that thinks his players don't need to be motivated because they are pros is sorely mistaken.

For every Tom Landry that there is you have 5 Bill Parcells. There are different levels of that but from my own management of air staff on radio stations, people need to be reminded about putting their best game forward every game. some need more reminding that others. some need to be yelled at while others need to be complimented. no matter how you cut it, you have to push people to be their best.

that oates thinks its unnecessary shows me he is fatally flawed.

This is particularly true when your captain is self-admittedly not a player that sets a high standard for himself. He judges himself based on his goal total and little else. He's not a student of the game and has very little will to be a great all-around hockey player. I think the bulk of the frustration with Backstrom is he once was that complete player that could set an example for the rest of the team in ways Ovechkin very likely never will (and is in many ways antithetical to being a captain/leader). Oates fails them on tactical and motivational levels but core players ought to be self-motivating. Those two don't really appear to be these days.

Oates could motivate simply based on setting an example/standard but refuses to. He retreats into orthodoxy and what he would want rather than what's needed. That will need to change if he'll have any staying power. Going forward he probably ought to go heavy on the third and fourth lines if the top two aren't creating or playing responsibly. At least use the TOI stick. Beyond that I don't know that Oates has any other cards to play. I don't expect anything to change on a systematic level.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

It's hard to fathom the desire of this fanbase to jettison talented players. We've gotten markedly worse since we've started doing this - yet some want to continue. Baffling.

Way to jump the gun from "looking at all options" to "jettison talented players".....nobody is saying "let's get less talented by design".

 

[Carlzner]

How much longer are you willing to wait?

Both Backstrom and Ovechkin's ES play has gone significantly down under Oates. I'm willing to not trade either of our superstars until we see them under a new coach at the very least. Maybe I'm crazy for thinking that.

 

[BobRouse]

The problem with Semin wasn't losing him. The problem was not trading him when he had value. Just like it was with Green. Just like it could be with Backstrom.

Tied for 95th at even strength scoring. Do you gamble on him playing like he did 4 years ago or do you cash in?

True.

I think we should trade Kuznetsov and Burakovsky while their value is high as well. Alzner too before his play declines.

Carlson right now would fetch a ton! His contract is cheap and he is a top 2 dman that plays in all situation. I bet we could get a ton for him.

Ward is having a career year so perfect time to trade him. We missed the boat trading Ovie circa 09-10 so we need to make sure that kinda stuff never happens again.

It will be utterly stupid to hold onto these assets since they most likely will decline in value at some point.

 

[hb13xchamps]

What exactly is "Backstrom+"? What would Stastny's contract look like? Are we sure Stastny would even want to play here? He's definitely a downgrade from Backstrom and is a bit older and will get more money.

I know Weber is making a bazillion $$ over infinite years. Shallow UFA pool+more cap space for everyone=Inflated prices. Lets say:

Backstrom+Burakovsky+1st for Weber and then Stastny for 8 years $64 million ($8 mil cap hit). Would you do that? Thats a long commitment.

There are alot of variables and this is a very high risk venture that if it doesn't work out will set us back a good deal.

Weber's cap hit is 7.875. Subban is rumored to want 8 million a year.

I don't see Stastny making 8 million for 8 years. That kind of money is usually only thrown towards a bonafide #1C. Backstrom isn't even making 8 million a year. Crosby and Malkin's cap hits are around 8.7, Stamkos at 7.5, Staal and Getzlaf at 8.25 etc. I would think Stastny gets somewhere around 7 million and that could even be much.

As for Weber, I think that would be an overpayment. I don't think the Caps would have to add both a top prospect and a first rounder on top of a #1C to land him and if that's the case then move on to Subban.

 

[maybam]

Way to jump the gun from "looking at all options" to "jettison talented players".....nobody is saying "let's get less talented by design".

Looking through your posts from this page you are not one of the fans I'm talking about.