Speculation: Acq/ Rost. Bldg./ Cap Part XXIX

[RandyHolt]

Maybe Carlson never had a change to rack up any points or skills being stuck behind Green. Who if he is not a featured offensive guy, is grossly overpaid.

 

[Hivemind]

I think it's obvious how much more of a weapon Green is at even strength when he's playing with a partner that makes him feel comfortable pinching. Green almost never jumped up into the play when he was next to Orlov or Schmidt. The past few games with Hillen we've seen Green fire his wrister from the circles far more often, and join the rush in the neutral zone. It's refreshing.

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

For now, Green gives the Caps depth in case Carlson gets hurt. If they make the playoffs this season, Green will no longer be the first and prime target. It will be Carlson.

This is my new favorite post of yours.

Green will continue to be the prime target because hitting him works. He's also of 0 use as insurance for someone else because you can't count on him being in the lineup.

 

[RandyHolt]

Green by now should be able to let the kids, the orlovs and schmidts jump into the play.

But he sucks covering 2 on 1s, somehow.

If he was gun shy to jump into the play with a offensive kid, its coaching. Oates has to tell him to get his ass up into the play, if that is what Oates wants. Oates seems inside many heads. The Bourque rule.

Admittedly, it may well be Oates asking Green to stay back.

Our defense is a mess, our offensive guy is our defensive guy that struggles in that role, passed up by our number 2 offensive guy on the power play.

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

The top-heavy, Norris-contending #1 defenseman model of a defense isn't really a viable option for the Capitals right now. Their best hope at having a defense like that would be Green or Carlson stepping up and becoming that #1 defenseman. Suter isn't on the market anymore, and the ship has long since sailed on Phaneuf, Pronger, and Chara. While I certainly would not protest an acquisition of an Edler or Yandle this off-season, neither are exactly the 30-minute all-around defenseman people are picturing. When you look at the top defenses around the league (Chicago, Los Angeles, Boston, Phoenix, St. Louis), only Boston acquired their #1 from outside their organization. And even that was a younger, less proven version of himself that walked from his previous organization because they traded a freshly signed player (Hossa). Norris trophy contenders hit the market rarely, the bidding is usually pretty darn intense. If we want a Keith/Doughty/OEL/Pietrangelo-type defenseman, we're going to have to hope that the answer is already in the organization.

While also difficult and costly, building a deep, well-rounded defense is the more likely option. That means purging guys like Erskine and likely blocking solid prospects like Carrick, Wey, Schmidt, Bowey, and potentially Orlov. It also means giving up substantial roster assets and cap space to fill the gaps. A defense in the mold of Vancouver, Philadelphia, or Pittsburgh seems more plausible.

So it would behoove a team to, say, draft Maata when he falls instead of ignore him due to some bizzare anti-Finnish bias

 

[Langway]

Goldman with a lot of background on Copley (albeit a while back).

 

[Mothra]

its a topic because its not clear to me that Carlson is a better offensive defenseman than Green nor is he better on the power play than Green. Green as recently as last season was the top scoring d in the league and has been that at least 3 times in his career. Carlson is not that.

Further, Green is being paid to do those things. Its why he gets his check. So, as I said, if he is not going to do the job he is being paid for, why keep him??

Old timer memories: When the Redskins had Sonny Jurgensen and George Allen decided that Billy Kilmer was a better fit for his system, why keep the hall of fame gunslinger if you are not going to use him?

For now, Green gives the Caps depth in case Carlson gets hurt. If they make the playoffs this season, Green will no longer be the first and prime target. It will be Carlson. But once this season is over, the $6m they are paying Green could be much better spent on a different player if the Caps aren't going to use Green.

With one year left on his deal, its the best time to trade him if they've decided not to extend him.

im not saying he is a better offensive defensman.....just seems to be a very nice fit for this PP unit. Just because 52 can be fancy with the puck doesnt mean he is the best fit with any combination of players...how much better could you possibly expect the PP to be if 52 were on the top unit? Thats a serious question....

the rest of this has been my point for a couple seasons now...I said before they signed him this last time that they needed to make a decision on this player. He would cost a lot of money and can they count on him....I think over the span of the contract the answer was no. They have not been able to count on him to be healthy or consistent...again its time to make a decision on this player

as for the Sonny/Billy thing.....52 is not a HoF QB, which I think points to the underlying difference in how we look at 52. You still seem to think he is a special player....you try to inflate him by saying he lead all d in scoring last season, which sounds more impressive than saying he had 1 more goal than a guy in a short season...where he was injured again.

Im happy to see he is attacking the play a bit more and producing, the team is in need of that....that said its still a far cry from the game changing player he was for a couple seasons and the guy you like to think he still is

 

[Zoidberg Jesus]

So you've got two defensemen that are playing a similar amount of even strength minutes. One of them is facing opponents' top lines during those minutes, and is getting close to 4 minutes a night on the PK because no one else can do it (which is pretty damn demanding). The other one gets easier ES minutes, and you don't trust him enough to put him on the PK in anything but desperation situations when guys on his side are in the box. Regardless of stylistic fits, your team scores at virtually the same rate when each of them are playing the point on the PP. Logically, who do you give the majority of the PP minutes to? Green seems like the obvious answer. Even before the PP time, Carlson's playing a lot of very demanding minutes, so why no let him rest during the PPs if it doesn't hurt your team's production? The only reasons I can think of for going with Carlson is if they're preparing for a post-Green era, or if they want to limit Green's production so they can re-sign him at a lower rate.

 

[BobRouse]

Green has softer hands for sure but I dont know that he is the better fit for this PP....as ive said a gabillion times, Carlson generally makes much quick decisions with the puck where 52 tends to hold it more, looking to setup a play. When 52 is at his best on the PP he is playing more like Carlson does...quick pass/shoot. When he stop and holds it, things often break down. Its clear they look for quick east-west passes to the slot or to 8 and the point position is merely an option for the playmaker, generally off the half boards. Carlson...to my eyes, has been better at that. Its also my opinion that he is getting better at it as he gets more time. 52 has years of this under his belt at this

in short...saying "Green is a better PP point man" as a matter of fact isnt something I would do. I think in general thats fair to say but for this unit its not nearly so cut and dry...Carlson is a really nice "fit" on the top unit



So his numbers make him top 2 on a team that stinks on D? not sure what any of this is supposed to mean....here are my numbers, he makes 6 mil, is bad defensively, and the PP is first rate with him having a much diminished role....

he apparently cant be expected to play well unless he has someone experienced paired with him, even plays in his own corner or players going wide on his side can be excused because his partner isnt seasoned....and,what are the odds he plays in all the remaining games this season?

Absolutely I expect certain players to play with the right partner to get the most out of them..day and night for offensive dmen really. Leetch is the example I always use but there are others. You know ...I wonder how Green would look next to Giordano for example?

Lets say the Caps offered Holtby, Johansson, Carrick and a 1st? Does Calgary listen? Who knows.

The only reasons I can think of for going with Carlson is if they're preparing for a post-Green era, or if they want to limit Green's production so they can re-sign him at a lower rate.

First I agreed with all that you said above.

Now about this specific quote that is very interesting. We all KNOW GMGM is not beyond pulling craft tactics like in the Orlov situation.

 

[Mothra]

So you've got two defensemen that are playing a similar amount of even strength minutes. One of them is facing opponents' top lines during those minutes, and is getting close to 4 minutes a night on the PK because no one else can do it (which is pretty damn demanding). The other one gets easier ES minutes, and you don't trust him enough to put him on the PK in anything but desperation situations when guys on his side are in the box. Regardless of stylistic fits, your team scores at virtually the same rate when each of them are playing the point on the PP. Logically, who do you give the majority of the PP minutes to? Green seems like the obvious answer. Even before the PP time, Carlson's playing a lot of very demanding minutes, so why no let him rest during the PPs if it doesn't hurt your team's production? The only reasons I can think of for going with Carlson is if they're preparing for a post-Green era, or if they want to limit Green's production so they can re-sign him at a lower rate.

I think you answered the question...even with 52 in play, even his biggest supporters would have to admit, you have to be prepared when he is out of the lineup

add to that it seems pretty common practice for Oates to toss out 52 with the top unit if Carlson was a decent way into a shift when they get the call. Carlson isnt being used too much IMO...he is earning and getting a regular shift. All of this should make him a better player....which I think is getting overlooked here .Why not give the guy playing the best the icetime he deserves?

 

[Mothra]

Absolutely I expect certain players to play with the right partner to get the most out of them..day and night for offensive dmen really. Leetch is the example I always use but there are others. You know ...I wonder how Green would look next to Giordano for example?

I'd love to see that...trade 52 to Calgary, strong idea

 

[BobRouse]

I'd love to see that...trade 52 to Calgary, strong idea

I'd try to extend him in the offseason. If he doesn't want to then that's an option for sure.

 

[Mothra]

I'd try to extend him in the offseason. If he doesn't want to then that's an option for sure.

well we just disagree on whether you win with a guy like 52....when I see him I dont see a guy that can fight through a deep playoff run.

are you saying he is worth 6 mil? Do you think he signs an extension this off season that will pay him substantially less the following season? If he signs an extension, besides my head exploding, it will be for similar dough....is he worth that?

 

[Brian23]

Anyone got anything on this Phoenix Copley?

 

[BobRouse]

well we just disagree on whether you win with a guy like 52....when I see him I dont see a guy that can fight through a deep playoff run.

are you saying he is worth 6 mil? Do you think he signs an extension this off season that will pay him substantially less the following season? If he signs an extension, besides my head exploding, it will be for similar dough....is he worth that?

With the salary cap going up and the scarcity of dmen in the league, especially ones with his elite skills, absolutely.

Gonchar is a million years old and not even half the player Green is and he got $5 million for several years in a row now despite his decline.

We let Green go then we now have 2 top 4 Dmen we are short. We are having a hard enough time finding 1!! And its not just money since there are scant few in free agency and they will get paid Clarkson style!

Watch how much Brooks Orpik will get this year and he has run out of gas and his D is poor at best.

 

[um]

well we just disagree on whether you win with a guy like 52....when I see him I dont see a guy that can fight through a deep playoff run.

are you saying he is worth 6 mil? Do you think he signs an extension this off season that will pay him substantially less the following season? If he signs an extension, besides my head exploding, it will be for similar dough....is he worth that?

you're assuming to much. i doubt he gets 6 million again.

 

[Hivemind]

If Bouwmeester got a pay cut, Green can get a pay cut.

 

[Mothra]

I dont see him signing an extension this off season that has him making substantially less money the following season. BR was saying he would look to extend him this off season, or thats how I read it.

I agree he will likely be taking a pay cut....I just dont see him signing up for that before his current contract runs out. If you guys think thats a wise place for 6 mil next season we disagree....this should absolutely be the time to move him. I think there is value there in trade

 

[malyk]

Just got the NHL app update that the caps actually signed Copley to a 2 year contract.

 

[Hivemind]

Just got the NHL app update that the caps actually signed Copley to a 2 year contract.

Woo goaltender depth!

Still want to re-sign Leggio though.

 

[MW6]

I think we all agree that this team is built very poorly, heavy on wingers, short on C, D and G.

Same thing can be said about the prospect pool. Wilson, Kuznetsov, Burakovsky, Barber, Brown are all top-9 material as wingers. Stephenson, Latta, Carrick and Bowey along with Grubauer is pretty much the best of the rest.

The free agent market isn't going to fill the glaring holes in the Caps roster either, at least not this year.

IMO, this team is in need of a heavy shakeup! I'm talking a core-altering re-tool, to find balance between offense and defense, youth and experience, grit and skill. So I've been toying with some trade scenarios. Probably unfair or unrealistic scenarios, but never less one that I'd confidently roll into next season with!

I'd start off by re-signing Halak @4yr $16M and Grabovski @3yr $14,25M.

Then to the earth rattling stuff!

:coyotes
Alex Ovechkin


Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Mikkel Boedker
Max Domi
1st 2014
2nd 2015

Trading Ovechkin is probably the last thing this franchise would do, but IMO for this ship to be rightened that is the only way to get pieces in order to build the roster the right way.
Ekman-Larsson is self explanatory, Yotes are dealing from a position of strength and could probably handle the loss of him. Boedker is just starting to tap into his potential as a solid top-6 winger, Domi gives the Caps a C with grit and top-6 upside, which have been unheard of during the Ovechkin-era! The picks are probably the in the middle of the pack this year and an extra pick for next years deep draft.

:Avs
Mike Green
Troy Brouwer
Andre Burakovsky


Ryan O'Reilly
Erik Johnson

Avs are center heavy with Duchene, Stastny, O'Reilly and McKinnon and have had O'Reilly playing wing this season. The have to decide what to do with Stastny but moving ROR should make that choice simple. Johnson is their #1D and probably not eager the trade him. Hopefully they see the benefit for the power play by switching to Green and he should also fit the Avs up-tempo hockey really well. Brouwer adds size and some goal scoring from the wing. Burakovsky-McKinnon should be a lethal duo in a year or two!
Caps get their 2C with shutdown capability and a little more well-rounded 2RD but with less offensive upside.


Marcus Johansson
Braden Holtby


Andrew Ladd

Caps get a veteran leader type, no particular strength and no weakness. Works hard, put up points, responsible etc, fits the need of what Caps IMO need on the wing. Jets have been rumored shopping him for a shakeup and adding two young fine pieces in Johansson/Holtby should be very enticing for them.

Then go hard after Morris or Robidas on the free market!


Ladd-Backstrom-Kuznetsov
Boedker-O'Reilly-Wilson
Chimera-Grabovski-Ward
Brown-Laich-Fehr
Latta-Beagle

Ekman Larsson-Carlson
Alzner-Johnson
Orlov-Morris
Hillen

Halak
Grubauer

Compliance Buy out Erskine!

Remember what I said, it's a highely unlikely scenario, so try to focus on value and for the fit for the organizations involved!

 

[BobRouse]

I dont see him signing an extension this off season that has him making substantially less money the following season. BR was saying he would look to extend him this off season, or thats how I read it.

I agree he will likely be taking a pay cut....I just dont see him signing up for that before his current contract runs out. If you guys think thats a wise place for 6 mil next season we disagree....this should absolutely be the time to move him. I think there is value there in trade

I would say that if he won't extend then you look to trade him now and not wait til the trade deadline. This offseason teams will have cash since the cap is going up. There will be a greater market that can absorb Green's 6 mil this season and have exclusive negotiating rights or be able to trade him at deadline themselves.

I wouldn't treat this as a Ribeiro or Semin situation.

 

[txpd]

This is my new favorite post of yours.

Green will continue to be the prime target because hitting him works. He's also of 0 use as insurance for someone else because you can't count on him being in the lineup.

your new favorite eh? you miss the point clearly. hitting green was never about making him cough up the puck. he was the ignitor of the caps offense and the zone entry on their power play. take him out or mess up his game and you mess with ovechkin's game.

if he is not the primary puck carrier on the caps pp and the guy passing to ov for the one timer, he wont be the guy first on the list.

 

[txpd]

I would say that if he won't extend then you look to trade him now and not wait til the trade deadline. This offseason teams will have cash since the cap is going up. There will be a greater market that can absorb Green's 6 mil this season and have exclusive negotiating rights or be able to trade him at deadline themselves.

I wouldn't treat this as a Ribeiro or Semin situation.

Green isn't going to sign an extention with the Caps at all if it means reduced money and ice time. If he's peaked here, there are others that will give him the chance. He knows that.

This off season Green is to the Caps what Ribeiro was to the Stars. A player with one year remaining that can bring a decent return with question marks in play. The one year gives the new team a chance to see if he works for them or not without a major commitment.

There is no chance the Caps should keep Green with the idea being to trade him at the deadline. Either extend him now or trading him.

 

[Hivemind]

Ladd-Backstrom-Kuznetsov
Boedker-O'Reilly-Wilson
Chimera-Grabovski-Ward
Brown-Laich-Fehr
Latta-Beagle

Ekman Larsson-Carlson
Alzner-Johnson
Orlov-Morris
Hillen

Halak
Grubauer

Kuznetsov and Wilson with their 3 career NHL goals as the top 2 RW. What could possibly go wrong?