Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXXI -- Will we even care by July 1?

[txpd]

"Pilon" is not a name that inspires a lot confidence.

Pee Lon. Not Pie Lon

 

[SpinningEdge]

Whatever we do.... have to keep Oshie

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

Caps need the win the Cup for the fancy stats people.

 

[Roughing]

Whatever we do.... have to keep Oshie

IMO Oshie is absolutely staying.

 

[Blades Ov Steel]

IMO Oshie is absolutely staying.

Agree, I think he likes it here quite a bit as well.. that's a huge hole if he leaves.

 

[twabby]

We were talking about the PP in the GDT but I figure I'd post it here. It's a shot location chart for the Caps PP1 over the season:



The thing that stands out to me is that Ovechkin seems to be getting a much bigger percentage of the shots while Shattenkirk is on the ice vs. when Carlson was on the ice.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

We were talking about the PP in the GDT but I figure I'd post it here. It's a shot location chart for the Caps PP1 over the season:



The thing that stands out to me is that Ovechkin seems to be getting a much bigger percentage of the shots while Shattenkirk is on the ice vs. when Carlson was on the ice.

Carlson likes to shoot on the PP. It wouldn't be an issue if he could hit the damn net. That's part of the reason why we traded for Shattenkirk, Carlson doesn't get the job done.

 

[895]

Carlson is kind of disappointing.

Felt like he stagnated a lot after his rookie year until last year when he took a huge step forward. Now he's back to stagnating.

Niskanen has definitely supplanted him as our best defender overall.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Carlson is kind of disappointing.

Felt like he stagnated a lot after his rookie year until last year when he took a huge step forward. Now he's back to stagnating.

Niskanen has definitely supplanted him as our best defender overall.

You mean the year before last. He was injured last season.

He really only had one breakout year 3 seasons ago now, otherwise his production is pretty steady. High single digit goals and high 30s pts-wise. Maybe it's good and they can sign him for less $?

3 more points and it's his second best season in that category despite his role being reduced. My disappointment is somewhat dampened overall, but in his own end is where I've been most disappointed myself. I guess we could blame Alzner since that's fashionable this year.

No doubt Nisky is our best overall today.

 

[SpinningEdge]

If we've learned one thing - it's that trading a top pick for a guy like Shattenkirk DEFINITELY makes the team better. He has almost as many points as Schmidt does already here in 13 games, lol. Schmidt isn't bad at all - but we're seeing a huge improvement with a guy like KS. Especially on the PP.

I almost wonder if he's worth 6 million here... think about it. People pay forwards big money for offense (like Oshie) and big money for good D guys (like Alzner). Shattenkirk can do both. Maybe not as good as Oshie on offenses and Alzner on D - but his combination is a legit top 4 d guy and probably a 60+ point guy on this team too.... that's huge.

KS is almost at a point per game since he came over. He's working. It's awesome.

 

[Hivemind]

If they were comfortable allocating $6M for a 3RD with powerplay value, they would have kept Mike Green. So long as both of Carlson and Niskanen are in the fold, it's simply too much to play for an additional RD.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

There's no doubt 22 on the 3rd pair is a huge talent bonus. Huge. As a top pair guy, might not be as impressive.

 

[Ridley Simon]

There's no doubt 22 on the 3rd pair is a huge talent bonus. Huge. As a top pair guy, might not be as impressive.

So that naturally leaves....middle pair

I'd still think very seriously about signing 22 and trading Carlson for some major futures. Or Carlson for a top F, and MaJo for futures.

Lots of options. Win the Cup first, and the rest is gravy.

 

[Ridley Simon]

It would take a lot more than a 3rd round pick to persuade Vegas to select Orpik over Grubauer. You'd not only have to give them more value in trade assets that they'd want for Grubauer, but also more value in trade assets than you'd be willing to pay to simply trade Orpik to them later. Vegas dosn't have tremendous incentive to eat your high cap hit contracts in the expansion draft, because they have the option to take the player they want in expansion AND then get you to sweeten a deal for them to bail you out of cap hell.

Think of it this way, if you're McPhee which would you rather have? Orpik + 3rd round pick or Grubauer (expansion draft) + Orpik + 3rd round pick (later trade)? The sweetener on top of Orpik would have to be pretty darn hefty for them to pass up taking someone like Grubauer, Schmidt, Wilson, or Connolly.


And Washington already traded away their 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks in the 2017 NHL draft. Also the 2nd round pick in 2018, and conditionally the 2nd round pick in 2019.

I think it's more like "take Orpik for a minimal return" (like a low round pick), and "I promise to keep Grubauer and make him avail to you in exp draft, George"

Or elsewe deal him to some other G starved team.

 

[Hivemind]

I think it's more like "take Orpik for a minimal return" (like a low round pick), and "I promise to keep Grubauer and make him avail to you in exp draft, George"

Or elsewe deal him to some other G starved team.

Dealing Grubauer to a team before the expansion draft is a way to get a crummy return for Grubauer AND then lose another useful player (Schmidt) in expansion. The goalie market is going to be flooded before the expansion draft. Bishop is a UFA, Pittsburgh needs to move or buy out Fleury, Halak is the odd man out in Long Island, Mason is a UFA, and Colorado may try to get rid of Varlamov to protect Pickard. It's going to be hard to get the type of value they want for Grubauer until the market settles down after the expansion draft.

 

[artilector]

If they were comfortable allocating $6M for a 3RD with powerplay value, they would have kept Mike Green. So long as both of Carlson and Niskanen are in the fold, it's simply too much to play for an additional RD.

Precisely. Would be crazy to try to keep all three expensive RDs.

 

[Corby78]

Go check out the LV threads. Grubs is hardly even mentioned when it comes to what goalies to take.

 

[MW6]

Do you think Calgary would be interested in a Carlson for Brodie swap? That's if Shattenkirk would re-sign. Orlov-Niskanen, Brodie-Shattenkirk would be a crazy good top-4.

 

[Raikkonen]

KS is not that good overall player as 2 and 74 are. With Carlson traded Niskanen will be asked to do too much. He will break one day. Having both Carlson and Niskanen is beneficial because we can spread the workload much more evenly. 3RD could be had for much cheaper and depending on coach's preference. Schmidt, Bowey, some UFA guy, minor trade - there are lots of options for that.

I'm perfectly fine with KS as rental.

 

[troyerlaw]

Will we be able to use vrana during playoffs if necessary? Somebody mentioned cap issues, but i didnt know if that was in relation to playoffs or just regular season?

If we need to add speed or finishing during playoffs, i'd sure rather see vrana than carey or barber or whoever else.

To me, Williams is an interesting case. I remember being surprised during second round last year that he kept getting regular shifts even after a handful of penalties across a couple games.

But then in the last few games, Trotz's patience did seem to pay off, and 14 started to get dialed in.

Even with his goal last night, I just have not been super impressed with Williams recently, and from our swank, rinkside seats at the game last month in Los Angeles, my kids and I thought we saw Trotz shaking his head in frustration when Williams reversed course right before the Kings' blueline and carried the puck back through neutral zone going the other way.

I will be curious to see whether Trotz gives Williams the same, very deferential, veteran-player treatment in this year's playoffs.

I will also be curious to see whether 88 gets utilized. Even as shattenkirk has settled in and become productive, i still have nagging feeling that 88's speed on breakout and thru middle of ice is badly missed. I wonder how quick Trotz will be to sit Orlov or even Orpik, if Orlov delivers pizza, or if Orpik looks slow or confused or banged up.

Just curious to see the personnel moves which get made during postseason.

 

[twabby]

The only way I see Schmidt playing in the playoffs aside from injury/suspension is if they go with 11F/7D. I just can't see Trotz sitting a vet and he's on record saying the current 6D is what they're rolling with.

 

[Hivemind]

I doubt they do it, but I really they would swap Schmidt in for Orpik against faster opponents. Most of Orpik's worst games this season have come against speed.

 

[troyerlaw]

The only way I see Schmidt playing in the playoffs aside from injury/suspension is if they go with 11F/7D. I just can't see Trotz sitting a vet and he's on record saying the current 6D is what they're rolling with.

You're probably right. Orlov is only one i could even conceive of Trotz sitting for a game, but Orlov has probably passed that stage of his career now, in trotz's eyes.

Then again, if things go south, and we are suddenly looking down the barrel of a 3-1 series deficit (God forbid), you never know what a coach will do. That's straight-up desperation time. I could see trotz plugging in schmidt or vrana if he thought we needed a shot in the arm. Or if a regular was drastically underperforming

 

[txpd]

The Caps didn't get Williams or Orpik to scratch them in the playoffs. When the Caps were pushed up against the wall v the Pens Williams was money. My view was they left him with Kuzy trying to get Kuzy going. They final gave up and JDub broke out.

I cant imagine the Caps scratching a d to get Schmidt in the game.

There is no salary cap in the playoffs. so Vrana can be called up. Connolly is the guy he would replace I suppose

 

[troyerlaw]

The Caps didn't get Williams or Orpik to scratch them in the playoffs. When the Caps were pushed up against the wall v the Pens Williams was money. My view was they left him with Kuzy trying to get Kuzy going. They final gave up and JDub broke out.

I'm sure you're right.

What is your overall assessment of Williams this year? As i said in some other thread, it seems like his season was one red-hot stretch bracketed by two long periods of meh.

He could certainly heat up again in playoffs. That's what he is known for. But lately, he has seemed slow, giveaway-prone, and out of sync with linemates. Just my impression.