Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXXI -- Will we even care by July 1?

[SimplySensational]

Do the Capitals even try to sign college or KHL free agents?

You would think the Capitals would be a pretty popular team in both regards, but somehow they never are in the discussion.

 

[Cappy76]

Do the Capitals even try to sign college or KHL free agents?

You would think the Capitals would be a pretty popular team in both regards, but somehow they never are in the discussion.

Wasn't Schmidt one? And weren't they rumored to be in on a couple of guys a few weeks ago. As a matter of fact now that I think about it didn't we sign a D man outta college???

 

[txpd]

What other reason is there? Everyone on D is willing to block shots, Carlson/Orlov don't have any problems outmuscling players and Niskanen is pretty cerebral. I'd need to see something explicit to convince me they can't PK reliably. There's god knows how many instance of Orpik messing up his assignment and plowing a guy into Holtby as the puck goes in the net and no one holds it against him.

I will give you an example. in a recent game, Carlson was out of the lineup. Niskanen was in the box. Trotz sent out Orpik and Alzner to start the pk. The Caps cleared it at 20 seconds and at 60 seconds and the defense could have changed but didn't. Chorney and Schmidt came out for the final 30 seconds. Orlov watched the whole thing.

As to Langway's point. Have you ever hear of boxing out? Same as in basketball. The defensive player gets position around the crease to box out the offensive player from the net and the rebounds. Big strong player boxes out well. Doesn't get overpowered. Smaller softer skater players gets boxed out by the offensive player and rebounds go in the net.

Yes, Orpik has dumped a forward into Holtby. Saw Orlov do it at ES himself not terribly long ago. Defense is hard. Just like offense is hard. Its not that Orlov and Shattenkirk aren't willing to pay the price that Alzner and Orpik and Niskanen and Carlson are willing to pay. I am saying that they can pay price and still lose the battle.

 

[Roughing]

Brian may be telling GM's around the league that he's going to trade Grubauer.

I know there are a lot of G's that may be available, but not many that have his pedigree and age. He's not Corey Schneider, but he's also not retread crap like Fleury, Lehtonen, etc. Bishop is the main guy that I could see George wanting (short term), with Grubs the long term play. Or Dallas or Winnipeg or Toronto or NYIslanders or Carolina or... Well you get the drift. He's arguably better than many of those teams #1's.

So if George wants Grubs, he may have to play some ball. Orpik also isn't a bad player for them to have, assuming he's healthy. 2015 or 2017 Orpik helps Vegas, a lot.

So while it's not an expected development, it's an option. If the Caps could pull something like that off, it would give them at least 8m in unepected salary cap room w Orpik's slot and Salary Cap going up. 8m could mean the difference between losing Alzner and Williams versus not (with maybe some money left over?)

Resign Oshie to a long deal, driving down AAV, and the team looks remarkably similar to this years, minus Orpik, Shattenkirk, Grubauer, and Winnik. Vrana and Bowey/Siegenthaler are added (with a vet G back up), and the team is still really strong.

Maybe pie in the sky. Maybe not. But plausible.

Ovey - Backs - Oshie
MaJo - Kuz - Vrana
Bura - Eller - Williams
Connolly - Beagle - Wilson
Niskanen - Orlov
Carlson - Alzner
Schmidt - Bowey
Holtby
Copley

Can that fit in 76m? Maybe. Get Oshie for 5.75 long, Alzner for 4.5 long, Williams for 3m?

Alzner has been terrific here and likely underappreciated. Still, he hasn't been great this season because, I think, he's hurt. I want to know if that's a permanent thing or not and if so he can leave. In that case, I'd take what you have here and either try to sign Shattenkirk instead or get another top4 D. JDub has been one of my favorites for a long time but I'm not sure I want him back. He's had some moments this year that make me think the sand is running out. I'm with you on the larger point though; I don't think this team has to change all that much. Oshie isn't going anywhere. I guarantee he's GMBM's top prioirty. I'm ready for Vrana to be permanent. Grubi is a nice young G but this is Holtby's team. The biggest issue is keeping the D strong. If Alzner and SK leave we would definitely feel that.

 

[Langway]

Wasn't Schmidt one? And weren't they rumored to be in on a couple of guys a few weeks ago. As a matter of fact now that I think about it didn't we sign a D man outta college???

Bindulis plus a couple of forwards in Mitchell and Gustafsson. Gustafsson has already played a few games for Hershey. They're not super high-end types, though, and beyond getting Pinho and Gersich signed they could use another toolsy forward or two. It's possible that all of Stephenson, Walker, O'Brien, Boyd and Djoos clear waivers next fall but I wouldn't count on it and you'd hope if there isn't room with the Caps they can get assets for some of them.

Add in the likes of Carey, Galiev, Thomas, Mitchell and CBourque with pending UFA status and Vrana likely joining the Caps and there ought to be plenty of spots open up front next year. You'd think that should entice those two picks to sign. Those two could arguably replace Vrana and Stephenson in Hershey and, if they adjust quickly, be pretty high on the recall list. They'll sign some of those free agents and add others as usual but there should be plenty of opportunity.

 

[Hivemind]

The Capitals signed the first two NCAA free agents signed by any team this season, and we're complaining about not signing NCAA UFAs?

Agreed we need to lock in Gersich and Pinho this off-season. Need to backfill some of the openings in Hershey and avoid the risk of them being UFAs next year.

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[Raikkonen]

Orpik is the backup plan for losing Alzner I think.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Orpik is the backup plan for losing Alzner I think.

It's definitely not both. Could be either or.....or worst case, neither (without another player added).

 

[txpd]

I guess we will see. Penguins are 1st in goals for and 4th on the pp. They are 18th in goals against and 18th in the PK. The Caps meanwhile are 2nd in goals for and 7th on the pp and 1st in goals against and 7th on the pp.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Does that also apply to goals not scored due to having a less offensively/transitionally capable defenseman in the lineup? Goals allowed due to being unable to sustain offensive pressure/transition at even strength? Or just goals surrendered on the PK.

Aren't we discussing the PK? A series isn't likely to be won Pk'ing but we've seen you can lose it on the PK.

 

[txpd]

Aren't we discussing the PK? A series isn't likely to be won Pk'ing but we've seen you can lose it on the PK.

seems to me what we are discussing is the value of defense in general. why worry about a goal given up if you are confident of scoring more than one in response.

 

[g00n]

I moved the detailed discussion of PK stats to the fancy stat thread.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I moved the detailed discussion of PK stats to the fancy stat thread.

That didn't end well for me. I vowed to never be in that thread. You broke my vow!



Yes, I have only myself to blame. Like a gruesome car accident that you just have to rubberneck, I couldn't prevent myself from commenting on the blasphemy.

Oh well.

In other news, water is wet, and I want Oshie resigned ASAP so Eller can get protected in the expansion draft over Wilson and peoples heads explode.

 

[txpd]

In other news, water is wet, and I want Oshie resigned ASAP so Eller can get protected in the expansion draft over Wilson and peoples heads explode.

Pretty sure that the analytics on this would prove that water in fact is not wet.

 

[RandyHolt]

If our center depth doesn't get us to the ECF+ this year, why would anyone think next year with the same 4Cs will be any different?

Maybe Hershey is stocked with players better than the ones we will lose to FA/George, but I don't see it. I think our support casting will take a hit, expected in expansion years.

Eller and the team had a monster month of home goal scoring never seen in but 100 years. Without that team wide domination, I suspect his stats point to being overpaid. Lets see how he does in the playoffs, but we need to trim fat, and our biggest contracts aren't going anywhere.

There is something to be said for exposing expensive players over cheaper, right? You lose a player, regardless. Some go but give cap relief.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Eller over Wilson, I doubt causes minds to be blown. This playoffs will be the proving grounds for the players we'll move forward with longterm. I've got the probability meter at 55/45 Eller due to Wilson's uptick in play the last month or so. The margin was much wider 3 months ago for a Eller IMO.

 

[Bananas]

Wilson over Eller all day everyday...

 

[Ridley Simon]

Eller over Wilson, I doubt causes minds to be blown. This playoffs will be the proving grounds for the players we'll move forward with longterm. I've got the probability meter at 55/45 Eller due to Wilson's uptick in play the last month or so. The margin was much wider 3 months ago for a Eller IMO.

If the Caps lose Wilson to Vegas, while keeping Eller, you will be some heads explode. I see that as anger....not amazement, FYI.

 

[Brian23]

Yeah, I'd be fairly mad if we lost Wilson for Eller. Not because I think Wilson is some top 6 future stud, but I think he provides for his cap hit and I feel Eller's overpaid. The only reason he'd be more valuable then Wilson is because he's a center. Outside of that monster run by the team (and apparently Burakovsky carrying the line) he's been pedestrian in my opinion.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Good to see Willy getting some love for a change.

 

[deadpenguin]

Wilson is a double edged sword to me, he can be a huge asset in turning the tide of a series, but he will always have the refs against him.

I would like to see Wilson put out on a line with Kuz and Bura. Those two are basically our duo of the future to replace Ovi/Backstrom and with some more room on the ice and time together to gel may just explode offensively. Have Wilson chip in offense around the net, in the gritty areas, and the rest of the time skate around laying big (clean) hits, keeping opposing teams honest and wary. He already has the seemingly unshakeable reputation, so just embrace it for now, while still keeping your game clean. When they start to hang back or think twice about taking the puck you really throw the Kuz/Bura duo at them. It means putting Willy in a better position to succeed as opposed to buried on the 4th line, while not relying on him to be a focal point of the offense. Expecting much more from him at this point in time is just wishful thinking, imo

We've seen what Kuz/Bura can do come 3on3 OT with plenty of time and space, they fly out there, its beautiful. And who knows, maybe a softy like Bura will take some notes from Wilson's game and start to throw the shoulder around more

 

[Bananas]

Wilson is a double edged sword to me, he can be a huge asset in turning the tide of a series, but he will always have the refs against him.

I would like to see Wilson put out on a line with Kuz and Bura. Those two are basically our duo of the future to replace Ovi/Backstrom and with some more room on the ice and time together to gel may just explode offensively. Have Wilson chip in offense around the net, in the gritty areas, and the rest of the time skate around laying big (clean) hits, keeping opposing teams honest and wary. He already has the seemingly unshakeable reputation, so just embrace it for now, while still keeping your game clean. When they start to hang back or think twice about taking the puck you really throw the Kuz/Bura duo at them. It means putting Willy in a better position to succeed as opposed to buried on the 4th line, while not relying on him to be a focal point of the offense. Expecting much more from him at this point in time is just wishful thinking, imo

We've seen what Kuz/Bura can do come 3on3 OT with plenty of time and space, they fly out there, its beautiful. And who knows, maybe a softy like Bura will take some notes from Wilson's game and start to throw the shoulder around more

I like the idea of swapping around some of the middle six guys or maybe moving up Wilson. Even if it's just for a game or two I think it's a smart idea to at least see some different combos:

8-19-77
65-92-43
90-20-14
10-83-26

Some people have pointed this out and I don't think it would hurt to at least try it on for size...

 

[deadpenguin]

I like the idea of swapping around some of the middle six guys or maybe moving up Wilson. Even if it's just for a game or two I think it's a smart idea to at least see some different combos:

8-19-77
65-92-43
90-20-14
10-83-26

Some people have pointed this out and I don't think it would hurt to at least try it on for size...

That bottom 6 is extremely solid..there's not a line there from 1-4 that would get pushed around nor be a black hole offensively by any means. Thats the kind of combo you need in the playoffs. Mojo on the 2nd line would mean that line gets abused, and williams would probably have trouble keeping up with kuz and bura, especially on the rush. mr. game 7 on the 3rd line though, hows that for depth. what we have here is depth, physicality, experience, and skill, both with the forward core and D core with the addition of shatty. all topped off by our vezina winning .937 playoff sv percentage stud in net

if that 2nd line clicked and the kuz/bura duo took off...cup bound

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

ESPN experts unanimously pick Vegas to select Grubby. Link here. I'd be happy for Grubby and happy not to lose Schmidt, Dima, Willy, Eller, or another roster player. Only better case scenario would be Orpik + pick going to Vegas. I'm a big Orpik fan but we could really use that $5.5mm we're paying him for two more years.