Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXXI -- Will we even care by July 1?

[trick9]

I don't think it is a crazy idea to let Carlson be picked up the expansion draft or walk/get traded in 2018.

He's a good D, but I don't think he ever was, or ever will be, a stellar #1 guy. I think his time has passed for that. He should have established himself as a premier #1 like two years ago. He's been good, but he hasn't been exceptional.

Washington actually hasn't been fortunate with a #1 D man since Green. Even he was quickly hit with injuries and never really recovered from it.

I think the closest they have is #9. I been high on him for years now. Look at my post history and you'll see pimping him up-- Even when he was throwing pizzas up and down the ice. He's been really maturing and I think he's got a bigger chance of becoming a #1 guy than Carlson-- or any other Dman on the roster at this point. While I don't think he'll be a Norris guy, I think he's going to be a very, very solid blue-liner.

#88 is built for the new-new NHL. He's got really good wheels and will only improve in other aspects of this game. He's gotta get better at hitting the net, in my opinion. He's scored some goals, but many of his shots seem to just go wide of the net. Yesterday he show-cased that by missing a very nicely setup play. But he's going to establish himself as a Top4 by next season for sure. I don't think he's going to regress.

Check again.

Carlson lead all D's in even-strength points and finished top-10 in Norris -voting 2 years ago. Last year he had 8 goals and 39 points in 56 games. How much is that over 82 games without that unfortunate injury? Hell even that 39 points take him into #1D territory already and he had a very under-whelming year.

He is absolutely a #1 D. Just inconsistent one. I don't think Orlov has potential to become a #1 D so the choice between them is pretty obvious to me.

I like Schmidt too but Playoffs are all that matter really and year ago one of the guys were arguably our best player in the Playoffs, and the other one got scratched for his terrible defensive play. Keeping Carlson over Schmidt is an absolute no-brainer to me.

 

[Midnight Judges]

A week ago Schmidt was a healthy scratch in a couple playoff games. Now he's one of the most coveted assets?!? If you think this is the case, you must also think Trotz doesn't understand what he's got on the blue line.

 

[Midnight Judges]

I don't think it is a crazy idea to let Carlson be picked up the expansion draft or walk/get traded in 2018.

He's a good D, but I don't think he ever was, or ever will be, a stellar #1 guy. I think his time has passed for that. He should have established himself as a premier #1 like two years ago. He's been good, but he hasn't been exceptional.

Washington actually hasn't been fortunate with a #1 D man since Green. Even he was quickly hit with injuries and never really recovered from it.

I think the closest they have is #9. I been high on him for years now. Look at my post history and you'll see pimping him up-- Even when he was throwing pizzas up and down the ice. He's been really maturing and I think he's got a bigger chance of becoming a #1 guy than Carlson-- or any other Dman on the roster at this point. While I don't think he'll be a Norris guy, I think he's going to be a very, very solid blue-liner.

#88 is built for the new-new NHL. He's got really good wheels and will only improve in other aspects of this game. He's gotta get better at hitting the net, in my opinion. He's scored some goals, but many of his shots seem to just go wide of the net. Yesterday he show-cased that by missing a very nicely setup play. But he's going to establish himself as a Top4 by next season for sure. I don't think he's going to regress.

I agree with most of this, except I don't think Orlov's ceiling is much higher than what we are seeing right now. He is playing great hockey. He has always been strong. He's always had a nuclear missile of a shot. His problems were all mental - out of position, getting caught up ice, making risky passes in his own zone. We haven't seen much or any of that this playoffs IIRC. Orlov also looks excellent with Niskanen. Niskanen is killing it right now IMO.

Carlson is not a premier #1, but he is a #1. That is to say, he is a top 20-25 defenseman in the NHL. This was clearly not his best year but you know he can bounce back.

 

[Fondue]

Check again.

Carlson lead all D's in even-strength points and finished top-10 in Norris -voting 2 years ago. Last year he had 8 goals and 39 points in 56 games. How much is that over 82 games without that unfortunate injury? Hell even that 39 points take him into #1D territory already and he had a very under-whelming year.

He is absolutely a #1 D. Just inconsistent one. I don't think Orlov has potential to become a #1 D so the choice between them is pretty obvious to me.

I like Schmidt too but Playoffs are all that matter really and year ago one of the guys were arguably our best player in the Playoffs, and the other one got scratched for his terrible defensive play. Keeping Carlson over Schmidt is an absolute no-brainer to me.

We'll have to agree to disagree then.

He might be putting up 57points in an 82 game season (I calculated for you), but the last time he actually played a full season was in 2014-2015 and got 55p on a team that racks up points for their star players very, very well.

Capitals have generated offense incredibly well through much (not all obviously, with Hunter and Oates) of Carlson's tenure. He's never been the cog in the machine that allowed the offense to flow through him. He's earned his points through dishing the puck over to Ovie on the PP, or the first outlet pass at even strength. But I don't think he's ever carried the play on his team like that of say, Erik Karlsson.

Let's assume that Carlson did play the whole season and got 57points. He would have been involved in 57/261 = 21.8% of the team's offense. Karlsson was involved in 71/206 = 34.5% with only 77 games played. Would have been nearly 37% if he played 82 games. He's playing on a significant weaker offensive team and contributing quite a bit more. I'm sure I can cherry pick some stats from other defenders and get some similar numbers. As anyone else can argue for #74.

I'm not saying he's a bad defender. I'm honestly not. I just don't think he's exceptional. I also believe he's not durable. I wouldn't offer him a long extension.

I do think #9's got potential for #1D. He's creative, confident, and can be ****ing tenacious when he's on. He's going to be a stud.

 

[RandyHolt]

It looked like Carlson switched the flip last night. Anyone else see that?

 

[Langway]

Yeah, there's no way you allow Carlson to be selected via expansion. Trade him this summer should he not be one of your three best defensemen (he is). There would be plenty of interest. Schmidt's energy is great 5-on-5 but the actual production hasn't been there long enough to even begin to consider that. A long-term deal for Carlson is kind of tricky at this point, particularly if Alzner isn't brought back. You'd think they'd tackle that this summer, along with Kuznetsov & Orlov, but we'll see. If Schmidt is still around it'd be wise to lock him up also. Burakovsky, too.

They'll either lose Grubauer or Schmidt to Vegas most likely. If it's Grubauer it shields them from losing Schmidt. If it's Schmidt it allows them to trade Grubauer after the dust settles for futures or maybe a younger skater that can be useful.

 

[trick9]

We'll have to agree to disagree then.

He might be putting up 57points in an 82 game season (I calculated for you), but the last time he actually played a full season was in 2014-2015 and got 55p on a team that racks up points for their star players very, very well.

Capitals have generated offense incredibly well through much (not all obviously, with Hunter and Oates) of Carlson's tenure. He's never been the cog in the machine that allowed the offense to flow through him. He's earned his points through dishing the puck over to Ovie on the PP, or the first outlet pass at even strength. But I don't think he's ever carried the play on his team like that of say, Erik Karlsson.

Let's assume that Carlson did play the whole season and got 57points. He would have been involved in 57/261 = 21.8% of the team's offense. Karlsson was involved in 71/206 = 34.5% with only 77 games played. Would have been nearly 37% if he played 82 games. He's playing on a significant weaker offensive team and contributing quite a bit more. I'm sure I can cherry pick some stats from other defenders and get some similar numbers. As anyone else can argue for #74.

I'm not saying he's a bad defender. I'm honestly not. I just don't think he's exceptional. I also believe he's not durable. I wouldn't offer him a long extension.

I do think #9's got potential for #1D. He's creative, confident, and can be ****ing tenacious when he's on. He's going to be a stud.

You said that he's not a stellar #1D and then turn around and compare him to Erik Karlsson. He doesn't need to be that good to be stellar #1 D. Otherwise there are only 2 of those in the whole league.

How much of they are involved in teams offense is also a pretty flawed argument alone. Karlsson is the only good D in Ottawa and plays half of the games, tons of more than JC. Add points per 60 between 2014-2016 seasons and Carlson ranks 6th in that list. Add this season to it and he's still in the top-10. He absolutely produces like a top-half #1D. I still wouldn't put him right there because he is inconsistent, but he's in that 15-20 range.

As for durability Orlov has already missed more games in his short career than Carlson has. He certainly doesn't edge out the durability argument, either.

 

[Midnight Judges]

It looked like Carlson switched the flip last night. Anyone else see that?

I thought it was flipped for game 5. He looked more aggressive and desperate.

 

[artilector]

I really like Schmidt, but the short track record makes it hard to definitively choose him over Carlson.

On the other hand, if the Caps can find a good offer for Carlson, e.g. one that includes a good young defenseman coming back, then I think you have to consider it.

Is it better to keep Carlson, or Schmidt + another good young defenseman (+)? It can tilt the scales for Schmidt, IMO.

It's too bad Shattenkirk has been underwhelming. Although, to be honest, if he were to switch partners with Carlson, maybe we'd be seeing a very different picture. Still, he's pretty slow in the defensive zone, and that's a big red flag for a 6M+ defenseman.

Anyway, the next series will be very telling in terms of where the different D men really stand.

 

[trick9]

I really like Schmidt, but the short track record makes it hard to definitively choose him over Carlson.

On the other hand, if the Caps can find a good offer for Carlson, e.g. one that includes a good young defenseman coming back, then I think you have to consider it.

Is it better to keep Carlson, or Schmidt + another good young defenseman (+)? It can tilt the scales for Schmidt, IMO.

It's too bad Shattenkirk has been underwhelming. Although, to be honest, if he were to switch partners with Carlson, maybe we'd be seeing a very different picture. Still, he's pretty slow in the defensive zone, and that's a big red flag for a 6M+ defenseman.

Anyway, the next series will be very telling in terms of where the different D men really stand.

Not many of those that are ready to step into top-4 role straight away that also don't need to be protected in the expansion draft. Provorov?

I'd guess you'd propably have to take a massive downgrade in that trade because teams aren't too eager to trade their young top-4 D's away. Especially before the expansion draft.

 

[artilector]

Not many of those that are ready to step into top-4 role straight away that also don't need to be protected in the expansion draft. Provorov?

I'd guess you'd propably have to take a massive downgrade in that trade because teams aren't too eager to trade their young top-4 D's away. Especially before the expansion draft.

True. Perhaps the best you can hope for, in terms of the main asset coming back, is a guy like Orlov from a year or two ago (or even Schmidt before these playoffs). Somebody with clear potential but significant question marks. Plus some other asset(s) to close the gap.

 

[g00n]

I think Shattenkirk still has something to show this team. I think he's like Kuz in that he needs a structure to riff off of and improvise a bit. As the team gets back into form we may see him stand out more, for the better.

But I doubt you throw any money at him next year, if we're trying at all to stay on topic instead of having 4 overlapping threads. lol

 

[Calicaps]

I think Shattenkirk still has something to show this team. I think he's like Kuz in that he needs a structure to riff off of and improvise a bit. As the team gets back into form we may see him stand out more, for the better.

But I doubt you throw any money at him next year, if we're trying at all to stay on topic instead of having 4 overlapping threads. lol

Totally agree.

Kinda don't love the 3-day layoff, but...

 

[Raikkonen]

There are doom & gloomers. And there are Carlson & Holtby traders. Like you can trade for another #1G or #1D at will.

 

[Hivemind]

Yeah, there's no way you allow Carlson to be selected via expansion. Trade him this summer should he not be one of your three best defensemen (he is). There would be plenty of interest. Schmidt's energy is great 5-on-5 but the actual production hasn't been there long enough to even begin to consider that. A long-term deal for Carlson is kind of tricky at this point, particularly if Alzner isn't brought back. You'd think they'd tackle that this summer, along with Kuznetsov & Orlov, but we'll see. If Schmidt is still around it'd be wise to lock him up also. Burakovsky, too.

They'll either lose Grubauer or Schmidt to Vegas most likely. If it's Grubauer it shields them from losing Schmidt. If it's Schmidt it allows them to trade Grubauer after the dust settles for futures or maybe a younger skater that can be useful.

This encapsulates my thoughts pretty darn well. There's simply no way they expose Carlson. Even if they don't view Carlson as part of the long-term future of the team for whatever reason, he's a player that will command a significant return on the trade market.

No matter what happens in expansion, they're going to lose a player and it's going to be a player they'd prefer not to lose. Grubauer provides value as a shield against other players getting picked. If Grubby is passed on, there could be trade interest in him either this summer or during the season. Similar goalies have fetched a solid return.

 

[amjay13]

Expose Carlson? He's 27 years old and the best all-around d-man on the team. I know Orlov is the flavor of the year and he's been good this season but Carlson is still young and has a proven track record.

Regarding Alzner, pretty much agree with others, good player and great Cap but can't sign him in DC for what he will get on the open market. He likely will never be the same after that injury last year and more or less said the same in an interview today.

 

[MrGone]

I really like Schmidt but do you really think he is in the top 6-8 #4 guys out of 30 teams. Every team has a #4 they would love to keep. I think Grubauer is the better play for GMGM.

 

[Hivemind]

I really like Schmidt but do you really think he is in the top 6-8 #4 guys out of 30 teams. Every team has a #4 they would love to keep. I think Grubauer is the better play for GMGM.

Vegas has to pick at least 9 defensemen, and could take as many as 13.

 

[trick9]

Vegas has to pick at least 9 defensemen, and could take as many as 13.

They can only take 10 expiring RFA contracts though.

Schmidt and Grubauer would each count as 1.

 

[txpd]

The hockey central guys were talking about the lack of a back up goalie for Andersen and the subject of Holtby came up. Both analysts said the Grubauer was a #1 goalie witbout a chair and would be the starter in Las Vegas next season. So, its not just us thinking its Grubby

 

[Raikkonen]

I think we have seen enough guys who were backups and considered possible #1 goalies in the future. Then they were traded and became actually that #1 guys. Like Martin Jones or Cory Schneider.

I guess not many of them failed in reality. Maybe Korn is highly regarded and Gruby is considered as sure thing just because of Korn. Why not?

 

[stanleycaps18]

The hockey central guys were talking about the lack of a back up goalie for Andersen and the subject of Holtby came up. Both analysts said the Grubauer was a #1 goalie witbout a chair and would be the starter in Las Vegas next season. So, its not just us thinking its Grubby

Which is why we re-obtained Copley, who the staff loves.

 

[Joel Ward]

What are your thoughts on using Grubauer's value to get Orpik's contract off the books for the next two seasons? Talking with some Stars fans on their board, a deal of Orpik and Grubauer for Niemi and Nemeth was proposed. Niemi would conceivably be exposed in the epansion draft and then bought out afterwards which would save the Caps $4M/year over the next two seasons and potentially give us the funds to re-sign some more important players. Nemeth is a big defensive 25 y/o RHD who could play on the bottom pair and replace some of the physicality lost in the departures of Orpik and probably Alzner, while giving Bowey some more time to develop in Hershey. It sucks that we wouldn't be getting conventional value out of Grubauer, but it could help us retain some key pieces.

 

[um]

if Schmidt isn't taken by Vegas I think getting rid of Orpik should be a big priority. No point in keeping him around at the cost of Oshie to play him on the third pairing. However if Schmidt is taken it's still worth it to get rid of him, but something would have to happen with our defense.

I'd prefer Vegas took Grubeaur so we could have an easier time trading Orpik.

 

[txpd]

What are your thoughts on using Grubauer's value to get Orpik's contract off the books for the next two seasons? Talking with some Stars fans on their board, a deal of Orpik and Grubauer for Niemi and Nemeth was proposed. Niemi would conceivably be exposed in the epansion draft and then bought out afterwards which would save the Caps $4M/year over the next two seasons and potentially give us the funds to re-sign some more important players. Nemeth is a big defensive 25 y/o RHD who could play on the bottom pair and replace some of the physicality lost in the departures of Orpik and probably Alzner, while giving Bowey some more time to develop in Hershey. It sucks that we wouldn't be getting conventional value out of Grubauer, but it could help us retain some key pieces.

Nemeth has played 108 NHL games including just 40 this year on a team that has a horrible defense. At 25 years old I would say that he would never play for the Caps. They don't need Niemi or his cap hit or throwing away cap space buying him out.

My view is that Orpik can be at minimum given away to a team with a young defense and some cap space. Should it be a playoff missing team, they make a profit by trading him at the deadline.