Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXXI -- Will we even care by July 1?

[txpd]

I probably shouldn't have said they were bad linemates. They got good chemistry. But one one of them needs to start pulling an Oshie and start shooting. And this hasn't been a one year thing. This happened last year as well.

Its not just you. Its been suggested here in the recent past that Johansson is actually dragging Kuznetsov down.

Oshie has Ovechkin to draw attention and Backstrom to pass him the puck. Its not the same thing. To play with Kuznetsov you first have to keep up with him

 

[Langway]

C prospect depth is a big concern to me for all of the points you made plus the fact that we don't have a pick this year until what, the 4th round?

As-is anyway. Even then they'll probably just go BPA and take some skilled European winger that happens to be available (ala Galiev).

When it comes to trimming salary it has to start with Orpik. For all of their love toward him, that's the contract value that stands out and the one less likely to provide future bang for the buck. Eller could be another depending on what the 3C market looks like and what he produces. Vegas could maybe help them but not without incentivizing it for them.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

As-is anyway. Even then they'll probably just go BPA and take some skilled European winger that happens to be available (ala Galiev).

When it comes to trimming salary it has to start with Orpik. For all of their love toward him, that's the contract value that stands out and the one less likely to provide future bang for the buck. Eller could be another depending on what the 3C market looks like and what he produces. Vegas could maybe help them but not without incentivizing it for them.

Even as one of the bigger Orpik supporters around here I agree. His cap hit would be better utilized else where. I doubt there will be much of a market for him, though, and I wouldn't bet on George helping us out.

 

[Jags]

I think a number of people miss the general context of discussion about Mojo. I am not sure anybody really views him as addition by subtraction. But if the Caps need to fit under the salary cap, there are only so many salaries that are realistic candidates to be moved. It'll likely be Oshie, or Mojo, or somehow keep both and lose defensive depth. Every alternative will hurt -- if you think the Caps can keep everyone, then you are in fantasy land.

You're right, but look at the number of teams that have excelled in the postseason, and even won the whole thing, with gaps on defense.

You don't just haphazardly discard a 26-year-old, 60-point guy that's gotten better for you every year with a couple years left on a good value contract just to free up cap space.

Winnik, Williams, and Alzner probably walk, Vegas is going to take someone, and the cap might tick up. That should cover our RFA raises. Keeping Oshie probably means a $2m raise over what he's making now. That's doable without unloading MoJo for a lesser, cheaper player or straight up for futures.

This team is going to take enough hits as it is. Making it worse is probably a bad idea.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Schmidt maybe playing his way onto Vegas

 

[Jags]

I probably shouldn't have said they were bad linemates. They got good chemistry. But one one of them needs to start pulling an Oshie and start shooting

So do that. Tell them you want them shooting more. No reason to send one packing.

Or swap your top 2 centers. The top line could stand to have a fast, puck-carrying guy that routinely gains the zone, and working with Kuznetsov -- a guy that circles in the offensive zone, passes well, and draws a lot of attention -- might help Ovi open his game up, move around more, and be more dynamic 5-on-5.

Meanwhile, MoJo becomes the fast, puck-carrying guy that routinely gains the zone on the 2nd line, with Backstrom -- a guy that really needs to shoot more because he's pretty great at it.

We've tried this in fits and starts, but committing to it might prove beneficial for everyone involved.

 

[Revelation]

They can probably afford to tangle Johansson and Grubauer as bait for McPhee to take favorable players from him (like Orpik). Alzner is not coming back

Schmidt would hurt the most to lose by far. If Bura takes a step forward he'd be a better winger for Kuz than Mojo since he's not shy about shooting at all. Connolly-Eller-Wilson could be the 3rd line going forward with Vrana in the mid 6 somewhere.

Ovechkin Backstrom Oshie
Bura Kuz Vrana
Connolly Eller Wilson

Orlov Niskanen
Schmidt Carlson

Really not so bad and they can probably push for some upgrades (like retaining JW) if the cap allows it.

 

[Brian23]

Schmidt maybe playing his way onto Vegas

Yeah, that's a big fear of mine. I've been debating how they can protect him but at this point, if Vegas doesn't want him, he can draft him and trade him to someone who will. I very much doubt Grubaruer is a guy he'd covet with Fleury available.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Thoughts on trading Mojo this offseason. Good player, but him and Kuzy on the same line is bad. You don't need two playmakers. And putting him on the first line isn't going to do anything either with Backstrom on there.

Terrible idea unless you're planning on getting a better player who is also outperforming his contract back in the deal.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Schmidt maybe playing his way onto Vegas

88 could have been his target all along.

The evaluation checklist will go like this...IMO.


1. GMGM checks to see if any team is willing to pay a good price to select then trade a player.

2. IF no, GMGM selects youngest player with highest upside. Tiebreakers will be, salary and number of years LV will be able to control said player.

When I look at Grubby vs Schmidt, as GMGM, I take Schmidt if we're talking retaining the player. As an entry franchise, unless we're talking a lock franchise-level goalie, I don't need a good 1B starter like Grubby in year 1. I'm ok being bad and having a few chances to get my franchise-level top-3 draftees and adding that guy via draft or trade later on.

I feel like Grubby is going to be making more $ as a starter on his next contract than what Schmidt will make too. I could be wrong...but that's my line of reasoning for selecting Schmidt (now that he's shown he can play well in the postseason).

Eller must be unprotected....Wilson protected. I almost feel like the Caps wouldn't mind seeing Eller picked. He's probably gone after one more year at an expensive salary in real $, not cap hit.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

88 could have been his target all along.

The evaluation checklist will go like this...IMO.


1. GMGM checks to see if any team is willing to pay a good price to select then trade a player.

2. IF no, GMGM selects youngest player with highest upside. Tiebreakers will be, salary and number of years LV will be able to control said player.

When I look at Grubby vs Schmidt, as GMGM, I take Schmidt if we're talking retaining the player. As an entry franchise, unless we're talking a lock franchise-level goalie, I don't need a good 1B starter like Grubby in year 1. I'm ok being bad and having a few chances to get my franchise-level top-3 draftees and adding that guy via draft or trade later on.

I feel like Grubby is going to be making more $ as a starter on his next contract than what Schmidt will make too. I could be wrong...but that's my line of reasoning for selecting Schmidt (now that he's shown he can play well in the postseason).

Eller must be unprotected....Wilson protected. I almost feel like the Caps wouldn't mind seeing Eller picked. He's probably gone after one more year at an expensive salary in real $, not cap hit.

No question.

 

[Brian23]

Does anyone actually think Eller's gonna get a bigger contract on his next deal? He's good for maybe 27 points a season and isn't a Selke level defender to makeup for it. I'd actually expect that number to come down, and if he could be had for under 3 million I'd probably be pretty okay with him.

 

[artilector]

You're right, but look at the number of teams that have excelled in the postseason, and even won the whole thing, with gaps on defense.

You don't just haphazardly discard a 26-year-old, 60-point guy that's gotten better for you every year with a couple years left on a good value contract just to free up cap space.

Winnik, Williams, and Alzner probably walk, Vegas is going to take someone, and the cap might tick up. That should cover our RFA raises. Keeping Oshie probably means a $2m raise over what he's making now. That's doable without unloading MoJo for a lesser, cheaper player or straight up for futures.

This team is going to take enough hits as it is. Making it worse is probably a bad idea.

First, again -- who exactly has advocated "haphazardly discarding" Mojo?? If nobody, why bring it up?

Second, I haven't yet seen a projected roster that included Oshie, Mojo -- and yet didn't make me think that Caps could very well be better off trading one of them for depth elsewhere. Even if the cap goes up by a couple of mil, it looks to me that the only realistic way to retain both is to go with a dirt cheap bottom D pairing, and it's far from clear to me that it's the right trade-off. I think the Caps need 5 top-4 capable defensemen going forward, and if you need to trade Mojo to fit them under the salary cap, then you do it.

 

[Brian23]

Also, the very reasons to keep Mojo would mean he could return a very valuable piece back to us.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Does anyone actually think Eller's gonna get a bigger contract on his next deal? He's good for maybe 27 points a season and isn't a Selke level defender to makeup for it. I'd actually expect that number to come down, and if he could be had for under 3 million I'd probably be pretty okay with him.

Bigger than his $3.5 cap hit? I think so sadly. He's making 1.25 mil more in real $ next year.

Let's just say he come in at $3 for term. Are you willing to pony up for 5 years? I feel like someone will give him at least 3.5 for term.

 

[Brian23]

Bigger than his $3.5 cap hit? I think so sadly. He's making 1.25 mil more in real $ next year.

Let's just say he come in at $3 for term. Are you willing to pony up for 5 years? I feel like someone will give him at least 3.5 for term.

I just don't see why. He's not gonna give you points, his defending isn't -that- good to justify spending on him as a specialist, and he's no longer gonna have the intangible benefit of "potential" to boost his contract.

 

[trick9]

Lots of options in the trade market, should the worst happen.

Kings for sure are looking to re-tool their team now that Sutter is gone.

Blackhawks might be open to moving some guys after that disappointment.

I wouldn't be shocked if the Sharks fired their GM and traded atleast one of their core players.

 

[HecticGlow]

You have to laugh at any suggestion that Burakovsky-Kuznetsov-Vrana would outscore Mojo-Kuznetsov-Williams. Vrana isn't even our #13 F this year - the idea that he's going to be a stellar playoff performer next year in any role, let alone in the top-6 - is ludicrous. Burakovsky is a good third line player right now who is still incredible streaky and inconsistent.

And Kuznetsov's play dramatically improved when Mojo moved to his wing - even though Mojo had been playing very well with Backstrom.

Kuzy is also the only guy who could take Mojo's PP spot, and he isn't nearly as good at the overall role. And if he moved there and Mojo was gone, your PP2 just disintegrated.

And the idea that you're on to a winner with Connolly-Eller-Wilson is hilarious. Eller does a lot of things right, but Burakovsky drives the offence on that line.

Ovi-Backstrom-Oshie
Mojo-Kuzy-Wilson
Vrana-Eller-Bura
Carey-Beagle-Connolly

Orlov-Niskanen
Schmidt-Carlson
Orpik-Bowey/Chorney

Ideally you lose Orpik for cap space, and then have a poor third pairing you have to upgrade at the TDL. But the rest of the lineup is decent with cheap replacements for the departing players.

 

[trick9]

I wouldn't want Eller back from what i've seen so far. He needs to go full HBK for rest of the Playoffs for me to change my mind. Right now he just seems like an overpaid Beagle without the face-off effectiveness.

Best-case scenario is Vegas taking him instead of Grubauer or Schmidt.

 

[RandyHolt]

We were told Eller would elevate his game in the playoffs (and that there would be punch and pie). Truth be told, I question that bottom 6 guys can do that, since much of what they bring all year long is predicated on hard work.

Elevating really just means throwing an occasional hit and be slightly more willing to poke at pucks the goalie is trying to freeze.

2 goals today for Lars.

 

[Raikkonen]

I still believe in 8-92 and 19-65 pairs to base the top lines on.

 

[trick9]

We were told Eller would elevate his game in the playoffs (and that there would be punch and pie). Truth be told, I question that bottom 6 guys can do that, since much of what they bring all year long is predicated on hard work.

Elevating really just means throwing an occasional hit and be slightly more willing to poke at pucks the goalie is trying to freeze.

2 goals today for Lars.

Eller has only gone downhill since the Playoffs started. Worst point of that was obviously shown when he blew that one game for the Capitals. Blown defensive assignment which directly lead to a goal against followed by dumb penalty in the OT that cost the game.

Not nearly enough for someone who is meant to be a defensive specialist. Especially as his offensive involvement doesn't go further than carrying the puck into the zone and cycling it in the corners.

 

[RandyHolt]

I wonder if he is fighting through an injury. I wonder who isn't, after ~ 90 games. Faceoffs seem a struggle, so speculating if so, it's an upper.

 

[txpd]

I still believe in 8-92 and 19-65 pairs to base the top lines on.

I am not sure what you are seeing. 92 is a fast and maneuverable piece and Ovechkin is basically a set piece shooter.

65 has 1 goal in his last 17 games. I see criticism of Eller who has not been that good but his success all season has been predicated on Burakovsky and Connolly putting the puck in the net. Those two wings gave done squat for more than a month.

 

[twabby]

Burt's been good all season. He had 6 points in 12 regular season games since returning from injury, and 2 in 5 games in the playoffs. His 5v5 points/60 trails only Backstrom and Oshie this season and was on pace for ~45 points over 82 games.

For a guy who played mostly on the 3rd line (that sometimes got 4th line minutes) and never played on PP1, Burt has had great production. Dude is a top 6 winger next season for sure IMO.