Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXXI -- Will we even care by July 1?

[Alexander the Gr8]

Burt's been good all season. He had 6 points in 12 regular season games since returning from injury, and 2 in 5 games in the playoffs. His 5v5 points/60 trails only Backstrom and Oshie this season and was on pace for ~45 points over 82 games.

For a guy who played mostly on the 3rd line (that sometimes got 4th line minutes) and never played on PP1, Burt has had great production. Dude is a top 6 winger next season for sure IMO.

I just think he needs to diversify his offense. He has the skills to play East-West but for some reason he goes North-South only. He cycles a lot but doesn't shoot quite enough.

 

[txpd]

Burt's been good all season. He had 6 points in 12 regular season games since returning from injury, and 2 in 5 games in the playoffs. His 5v5 points/60 trails only Backstrom and Oshie this season and was on pace for ~45 points over 82 games.

For a guy who played mostly on the 3rd line (that sometimes got 4th line minutes) and never played on PP1, Burt has had great production. Dude is a top 6 winger next season for sure IMO.

yea. I know. you said similar about Kuzy last year. He was playing fine.

he is a goal scorer. he has 1 since returning from the injury. 1. This is the same player that went 26 games without a goal before getting scratched earlier this season. IIRC you were saying at that time that his underlying numbers were good.

He needs to score.

 

[twabby]

Why is the idea of on-ice impact limited solely to who personally puts the puck in the net? Maybe Burakovsky is more of a playmaker than everyone thinks? His stats certainly seem to suggest that: he's second on the entire team in assists/60, behind only Backstrom.

Even when he's not scoring the goals himself the team generally fared well when he is on the ice. Sure there are a few things he needs to work on but he's progressing extremely well. His board play has improved drastically from last season as an example of a significant improvement. He needs a little more creativity around the net to get his shots off but again, he's only 22. These are the years players make big jumps and he's already shown great talent. On most other teams he's a top 6 player every night.

 

[txpd]

his stats suggest that eh? His break out season. Last season. He was 17g and 21a.
if kuzy and burt are off the hook for 20 game goalless droughts and Johansson who actually goes to the net and scores goals is dragging them down.

I don't know what to say. the Caps need the goal scoring, if you haven't noticed.
On the line he is on with Eller, he is the trigger guy. He is the guy with shooting skills. But you say he's not really a scorer but a pass first guy.

If that is true, then honestly I would trade him to make room for a goal scorer. When Williams or Oshie or both leave the Caps will need to replace their goal scoring. Burt is going to be counted on to do that. He needs to do that.

He got scratched because he had gone 26 games without a goal. He had 8 assists in that run of games. Was scratching him a mistake?

 

[twabby]

He's 22nd in the entire NHL in points/60 at 5v5 despite mainly playing with Lars Eller and Brett Connolly. And he's 22 years old.

I really think you just don't understand hockey to minimize his contributions like you are just because you think he's supposed to be the goal-scorer on his line. The team scores goals and possesses the puck when he's on the ice. He's a good player with flaws but certainly he should be a top 6 mainstay next season. He's proven it.

 

[Raikkonen]

I am not sure what you are seeing. 92 is a fast and maneuverable piece and Ovechkin is basically a set piece shooter.

I see Kuzy having more space and more offensive zone stars with Ovechkin ahd whoever. Ovechkin could benefit from Kuzy's young legs. I will stand on this ground until it's proved not working. Heavy offense line, right. You can still flavor it a bit with 3rd player.

Backstrom +Johansson/Oshie/Bura is the more universal line where Backstrom can be more effective and won't be restricted with Ovi not doing any hard work.

 

[Revelation]

Ovechkin Kuz Wilson
Oshie Backstrom Williams
Dre Kronor
Connolly Beagle Vrana (Kapanen effect)

 

[txpd]

I really think you just don't understand hockey.

oh....I get it. trotz too. yes? we had this conversation earlier this season when his goalless streak hit 15 games on its way to 26 games. Then he got scratched for 3 straight games.

I would say that his wrist has not healed except there was nothing wrong with his wrist at the start of the season.

lets look at this a different way. Williams is leaving. Oshie might leave. The Caps are going to need 20 to 30 goals from some forward next season that didn't do it this season and or hasn't yet in his career. Burt is the logical guy. You are saying that he is the wrong guy?

Meanwhile, if Backstrom or Beagle were approaching 20 straight games without a goal, I would be saying there is a problem. More lack of understanding of hockey, I suppose.

edit: Johansson. They guy that you regularly say is dragging Kuznetsov down put up 2 clutch goals last night. In the end the idea is to score more goals than your opponent. Somebody needs to score. If I understood hockey enough to read a boxscore, it appears that Johansson scored one of those goals skating with Eller.

 

[Langway]

Meanwhile, if Backstrom or Beagle were approaching 20 straight games without a goal, I would be saying there is a problem. More lack of understanding of hockey, I suppose.

Jay Beagle: 1 goal in 19 games
Lars Eller: 2 goals in 34 games
Nicklas Backstrom: 3 goals in 16 games
Evgeny Kuznetsov: 4 goals in 17 games

There is a center ice goal-scoring problem. Yer whipping boy Kuznetsov has been the best of the bunch since mid-March. Beagle in particular barely looks like an NHLer. They need more from all of them if they're to go deep. That's a more fundamental issue than winger play.

Ever since Connolly fell off the map after Burakovsky got hurt the third line hasn't been very good outside of shot suppression. I wonder if Trotz doesn't go back to Connolly on the third line to start the PIT series, though, in the hopes that maybe it provides more productive depth. They can always bump up Wilson again should the play of 10/83/26 require shortening the bench but I'd look at a reset early to see if it can work.

 

[OV Rocks]

Jay Beagle: 1 goal in 19 games
Lars Eller: 2 goals in 34 games
Nicklas Backstrom: 3 goals in 16 games
Evgeny Kuznetsov: 4 goals in 17 games

There is a center ice goal-scoring problem. Yer whipping boy Kuznetsov has been the best of the bunch since mid-March. Beagle in particular barely looks like an NHLer. They need more from all of them if they're to go deep. That's a more fundamental issue than winger play.

Ever since Connolly fell off the map after Burakovsky got hurt the third line hasn't been very good outside of shot suppression. I wonder if Trotz doesn't go back to Connolly on the third line to start the PIT series, though, in the hopes that maybe it provides more productive depth. They can always bump up Wilson again should the play of 10/83/26 require shortening the bench but I'd look at a reset early to see if it can work.

Scoring depth from the center spot is a concern, part of the reason I wanted the Caps to take a serious look at Ducehne and still do. I called for a RW upgrade over Connolly at the deadline I expected him to fizzle out to what we see now. Would rather have Vrana in right now

 

[twabby]

oh....I get it. trotz too. yes? we had this conversation earlier this season when his goalless streak hit 15 games on its way to 26 games. Then he got scratched for 3 straight games.

I would say that his wrist has not healed except there was nothing wrong with his wrist at the start of the season.

lets look at this a different way. Williams is leaving. Oshie might leave. The Caps are going to need 20 to 30 goals from some forward next season that didn't do it this season and or hasn't yet in his career. Burt is the logical guy. You are saying that he is the wrong guy?

Meanwhile, if Backstrom or Beagle were approaching 20 straight games without a goal, I would be saying there is a problem. More lack of understanding of hockey, I suppose.

edit: Johansson. They guy that you regularly say is dragging Kuznetsov down put up 2 clutch goals last night. In the end the idea is to score more goals than your opponent. Somebody needs to score. If I understood hockey enough to read a boxscore, it appears that Johansson scored one of those goals skating with Eller.

I'm not saying he's the wrong guy. I'm saying he's getting fewer minutes than he otherwise would because the Capitals have some pretty good forward depth. Ovechkin, Oshie, Johansson, and Williams are all good to very good top 6 wingers so it's tough to find Burakovsky time in the top 6. I imagine that won't be an issue next year. Given Burakovsky's age he's likely to improve next season, and that should only be helped playing alongside more creative and effective linemates. Eller is a good possession player but he lacks the quality playmaking ability in the offensive zone that Kuznetsov and Backstrom have, and Connolly is a passenger for the most part. I think the difference is you and I really don't see eye-to-eye on what types of players project to be effective. I feel like you look at past production to project future results whereas I'm concerned more about the process involved.

I'm not really sure what your point is with Johansson. I don't recall saying he was dragging Kuzy down, more that I thought the team could benefit from them being split up. Turns out I was probably wrong. It won't be the last time I'm wrong about something but let's not pretend anyone has perfect hockey opinions, yourself included. If your point is I had a wrong opinion once about a guy therefore any future opinions are null and void I guess no one can have any opinions at all?

 

[marcel snapshot]

So if it comes down to protecting Schmidt vs protecting Grubby in the expansion draft, I think it's no contest: you have to protect Schmidt. We have a number of strong goalie prospects in the system, and NHL back-up goalies are not hard to find.

On the other hand, the much more scarce (and valuable) commodity is young, elite-level skating NHL defensemen that keep earning more ice time as the games get tighter and more meaningful and still have considerable upside. Those are harder to find and difficult to develop.

 

[trick9]

So if it comes down to protecting Schmidt vs protecting Grubby in the expansion draft, I think it's no contest: you have to protect Schmidt. We have a number of strong goalie prospects in the system, and NHL back-up goalies are not hard to find.

On the other hand, the much more scarce (and valuable) commodity is young, elite-level skating NHL defensemen that keep earning more ice time as the games get tighter and more meaningful and still have considerable upside. Those are harder to find and difficult to develop.

We can't protect Grubauer because Holtby isn't going anywhere.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Jay Beagle: 1 goal in 19 games
Lars Eller: 2 goals in 34 games
Nicklas Backstrom: 3 goals in 16 games
Evgeny Kuznetsov: 4 goals in 17 games

There is a center ice goal-scoring problem. Yer whipping boy Kuznetsov has been the best of the bunch since mid-March. Beagle in particular barely looks like an NHLer. They need more from all of them if they're to go deep. That's a more fundamental issue than winger play.

Ever since Connolly fell off the map after Burakovsky got hurt the third line hasn't been very good outside of shot suppression. I wonder if Trotz doesn't go back to Connolly on the third line to start the PIT series, though, in the hopes that maybe it provides more productive depth. They can always bump up Wilson again should the play of 10/83/26 require shortening the bench but I'd look at a reset early to see if it can work.

Not sure it's fair to call the C with the most expectations (aside from 19) a whipping boy. He has to shoulder great expectations if the Caps are to succeed. Yes they need others to pick it up. Beagle looks hurt to me. Eller mind boggling at times. I guess that's why they're 3/4 C's. Kuzy disappeared last year.....it can't happen again of we're to keep advancing IMO. I think he's poised for a big series against the Pens.

 

[marcel snapshot]

We can't protect Grubauer because Holtby isn't going anywhere.

That's right. You can only protect 1 goalie. Thanks for reminder. Who else is on the protect/don't protect bubble with Schmidt?

 

[txpd]

Jay Beagle: 1 goal in 19 games
Lars Eller: 2 goals in 34 games
Nicklas Backstrom: 3 goals in 16 games
Evgeny Kuznetsov: 4 goals in 17 games

There is a center ice goal-scoring problem. Yer whipping boy Kuznetsov has been the best of the bunch since mid-March. Beagle in particular barely looks like an NHLer. They need more from all of them if they're to go deep. That's a more fundamental issue than winger play.

Ever since Connolly fell off the map after Burakovsky got hurt the third line hasn't been very good outside of shot suppression. I wonder if Trotz doesn't go back to Connolly on the third line to start the PIT series, though, in the hopes that maybe it provides more productive depth. They can always bump up Wilson again should the play of 10/83/26 require shortening the bench but I'd look at a reset early to see if it can work.

I posted in a different thread that I thought Connolly needed to go back to Eller. That Wilson really hasn't energized them that much while killing the 4th line in the process. If there is something wrong with Beagle that reduces his effectiveness and with that his ice time, Wilson needs to play more than Connolly. But if Beagle is healthy then it makes a lot of sense to put Wilson back with Beagle and Connolly with Eller. If Connolly cant make a go of it and his ice remains under 10 minutes, they could see if Vrana's speed might open up Burt a little more in sheltered minutes.

Backstrom and Kuzy had 3 goals in the first 6 playoff matches. Backstrom with a ppg. Kuzy a little less but skating against Matthews most of the time.

What I am seeing is that the primary off season upgrade to fix what hurt them last playoffs was upgrading the scoring in the bottom 6. Take Wilson's 3 goals out and the other 5 are scoreless. They are really not any better than where they were last playoffs.

 

[twabby]

That's right. You can only protect 1 goalie. Thanks for reminder. Who else is on the protect/don't protect bubble with Schmidt?

Me.

If Schmidt has another good series you have to consider protecting him vs. Carlson. Every pairing Schmidt has played on this season has turned to gold. Carlson magically looks better alongside Schmidt, same with Orpik and Shattenkirk (tiny sample size for 22). Heck even Alzner looked better alongside Schmidt for a few games.

Carlson is a UFA next offseason due a huge raise who has likely peaked and possibly has injury issues. It would be crazy to protect him and then lose him next offseason.

Meanwhile Schmidt is a cost-controlled RFA who has room to grow and is a good fit in the new NHL. It's a tough choice and it might come down to how 88 and 74 perform against Pittsburgh, but you have to consider possibly protecting 88 at this point. You could also consider protecting 8 skaters but that would likely leave Johansson and Wilson exposed which doesn't seem ideal.

 

[895]

Protecting Schmidt over Carlson is bananas, even if only considering trade value.

Rather pay Mcphee with picks or protect 8F.

 

[twabby]

Protecting Schmidt over Carlson is bananas, even if only considering trade value.

Rather pay Mcphee with picks or protect 8F.

They could always make a trade before the expansion draft.

I don't really know how crazy it is to consider Schmidt over Carlson. A lot of it is certainly recency bias with Carlson's past 2 seasons vs. Schmidt's but you also have to consider Schmidt's impact on his teammates (he made Orpik look very good) and his contract status vs. Carlson's. Vegas could select Carlson but they'd risk losing him for nothing next offseason. Meanwhile, if they choose Schmidt he's likely a Golden Knight for several years.

It's not an easy choice at this moment IMO. Perhaps the next series will offer more clarity.

 

[trick9]

That's right. You can only protect 1 goalie. Thanks for reminder. Who else is on the protect/don't protect bubble with Schmidt?

Wilson (propably protected), Eller, Connolly. Grubauer can't be protected so he's there (unless traded before, but doubt it).

Maybe you take out 2 flies and pay Vegas to take Orpik instead. It does create something positive for both sides as Orpik's cap hit can be used to other UFA's for Caps. For Vegas they get some incentive to take him, and they don't lose one of those 10 spots that they have to take expiring RFA contract.

I wouldn't mind losing Eller to them either. He can be replaced via FA, and he's been under-whelming so far in my eyes. Not that hard to replace from free agency as opposed to Schmidt for example.

No way they leave Carlson or Johansson unprotected.

 

[txpd]

Its pretty crazy to keep Schmidt over Carlson. But you have to have appreciation for the defensive end of the ice to see that. Carlson and Oprik provide Schmidt a structure and a confidence to throttle up.

Carlson plays almost the most minutes on the team and plays primary roles on both special teams. Schmidt plays on neither. I am impressed by Schmidt but I would not keep Shattenkirk instead of Carlson and I wouldn't keep Schmidt.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Knowing this organization and our hatred for the guys we're facing...

We've probably been scouting them from the day they eliminated us last year. We knew we would have to face them eventually if we wanted to win the Cup. I'm sure Trotz and the coaching staff have something in mind.

 

[trick9]

They could always make a trade before the expansion draft.

I don't really know how crazy it is to consider Schmidt over Carlson. A lot of it is certainly recency bias with Carlson's past 2 seasons vs. Schmidt's but you also have to consider Schmidt's impact on his teammates (he made Orpik look very good) and his contract status vs. Carlson's. Vegas could select Carlson but they'd risk losing him for nothing next offseason. Meanwhile, if they choose Schmidt he's likely a Golden Knight for several years.

It's not an easy choice at this moment IMO. Perhaps the next series will offer more clarity.

To put it in a scale. It's crazier than protecting Chorney over Orlov.

John Carlson has been our best D in the Playoffs pretty much year after year.

 

[Fondue]

I don't think it is a crazy idea to let Carlson be picked up the expansion draft or walk/get traded in 2018.

He's a good D, but I don't think he ever was, or ever will be, a stellar #1 guy. I think his time has passed for that. He should have established himself as a premier #1 like two years ago. He's been good, but he hasn't been exceptional.

Washington actually hasn't been fortunate with a #1 D man since Green. Even he was quickly hit with injuries and never really recovered from it.

I think the closest they have is #9. I been high on him for years now. Look at my post history and you'll see pimping him up-- Even when he was throwing pizzas up and down the ice. He's been really maturing and I think he's got a bigger chance of becoming a #1 guy than Carlson-- or any other Dman on the roster at this point. While I don't think he'll be a Norris guy, I think he's going to be a very, very solid blue-liner.

#88 is built for the new-new NHL. He's got really good wheels and will only improve in other aspects of this game. He's gotta get better at hitting the net, in my opinion. He's scored some goals, but many of his shots seem to just go wide of the net. Yesterday he show-cased that by missing a very nicely setup play. But he's going to establish himself as a Top4 by next season for sure. I don't think he's going to regress.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Not sure it's fair to call the C with the most expectations (aside from 19) a whipping boy. He has to shoulder great expectations if the Caps are to succeed. Yes they need others to pick it up. Beagle looks hurt to me. Eller mind boggling at times. I guess that's why they're 3/4 C's. Kuzy disappeared last year.....it can't happen again of we're to keep advancing IMO. I think he's poised for a big series against the Pens.

I don't think anyone has to worry about Kuznetsov showing up. Even if his points don't jump off the page from the Toronto series, he was creating chances at a decent rate.