Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXVIII (It's Working! Let's Fix It.)

[Revelation]

Give it a rest. Great goalies become great goalies by beating SOMEONE. That it was us sucks, but that's how the world works.

Choosing to ignore something as profoundly meaningful as stellar goaltending widely believed to be the best in the business is laughable. And so is the macro perspective of decade-plus eras riddled with glaring personnel issues and dodgy coaching.

The "Trotz/MacLellan Era" has been pretty great from the jump and has gotten progressively better. If you want to make impact changes to a league-leading team today because of crap that happened prior to Trotz, that's kinda nutty.

I get being frustrated by the organization never winning a Cup, but so little of that history has any meaningful impact on what happens today.

Our most glaring weaknesses last year were possession and even-strength performance. We're way better at both. Our management, coaching, and personnel have addressed the biggest kinks, and we're standing atop the NHL again. What we're doing is working, and we can't afford any additions.

ANY change you make right now means deleting something. You don't think Wilson is valuable enough, Connolly doesn't cost enough to offset incoming salary, no one's going to pay to rent Winnik... So who is it?

And let's say we manage to clear enough room to add Vanek outright. That'd be great. But how do you get him? You don't think we move our 1st for a rental. Bowey's not looking like the blue-chip he might have been last year and no one's paying for Samsonov this far ahead of his NHL debut.

So it's Vrana? You don't think they go for Wilson plus a 1st and a prospect, but somehow Vrana gets it done?

You're just naysaying, Rev. All the possibilities are off the table as far as you're concerned, but somehow we're supposed to make a key acquisition that doesn't mean subtracting a substantial piece of what's working? That's not possible.

Vanek 50% retained would be like 300k on the cap, we could fit him in. And we're really gonna hoard a late 1st in the weakest draft in a decade if it can land an impact player? At this point, when Ovechkin is over 30 and the team is facing a cap crunch/vegas poaching? This is the best shot they'll have until a post Ovechkin rebuild 10+ years from now but a late 1st is off the table? So we can trade water with another tweener 4-5 years from now? LMAO.

It's amazing how a good month can make people forget everything before. This team is still inferior to a Crosby-Malkin-Kessel-Cullen anchored pens with a healthy Letang, especially if the Pens make another top 6 addition.

 

[Jags]

Vanek 50% retained would be like 300k on the cap

Vanek is going to be on every contender's radar at the deadline, and you're going to figure out how to outbid everyone else AND get the Wings to eat salary?

I'm just curious -- what does that deal look like in your head? I don't see how that happens. I suggested maybe Wilson plus our 1st and maybe a little extra to rent Vanek, but no one seemed to think that'd work or really commented on it at all. Just wondering what you think it'd take...

And we're really gonna hoard a late 1st in the weakest draft in a decade if it can land an impact player?

This one's on me. I thought you were the person I was discussing this with yesterday, but it wasn't. It was CCF that said we wouldn't move our 1st for a rental. In that conversation, I agreed with exactly what you just said -- that we should trade it if it meant getting something real for this year.

My apologies for the confusion.

This team is still inferior to a Crosby-Malkin-Kessel-Cullen anchored pens with a healthy Letang, especially if the Pens make another top 6 addition.

Not sure I agree with this. With the substantial improvements in possession and D, I think we match up better with them this year, as-is. I hated the matchup last year.

I don't disagree that a move might work. I just don't see parting with anyone but Wilson, and I don't see how anything less gets us anything of real value...

 

[Raikkonen]

Palat sounds interesting. Simmonds is even better LOL.

What about Josh Bailey? UFA next summer. Cap hit 3,3M. Listed as LW/RW. Injury replacement for Oshie/Williams, maybe middle-6 LW too. Just a concept of not so obvious player to acquire. Young, top-6 caliber guy, could be had under the cap for us.

Somebody to make Connolly 4LW (Winnik being traded for caps reasons separately or not) will (should) make forwards better. Somebody to make Johansson 3LW is even better.

 

[Blades of Steel]

I don't understand why everyone wants to move Winnik, am I the only one here who sees how effective he's made that 4th line?

 

[Revelation]

Vanek only makes like 2 million so having the Wings retain salary is absolutely nothing. I'd part with one of Bowey/Siegelthaer/1st for him as the main piece, it may be a premium but I don't think they're gonna make or break this team at any point.

He's 2nd in the league in points per 60 behind Crosby, so it definitely makes sense to go for him if there's a chance. Even if he's streaky... if he hits a streak during the playoffs he could carry us through a round.

 

[Revelation]

I don't understand why everyone wants to move Winnik, am I the only one here who sees how effective he's made that 4th line?

His cap hit

 

[twabby]

At this point I'd rather move Wilson than Winnik. They make about the same against the cap and while other teams probably won't value Winnik very highly, I bet some teams will actually see Wilson as a reclamation project or physical presence and value him for that reason. Also Wilson has another year left on his deal and will be an RFA.

Let's face it: Wilson is a bust. He's on pace for 15 points (despite his recent 3 point game) and only 75 SOG this season, despite mainly playing alongside competent players in Winnik and Beagle. If the Capitals have to sit or get rid of Wilson to get a player like Vanek at the TDL, why wouldn't they? Other forwards can chip in to fill in the PKing void, it's not like Wilson is some irreplaceable member of that unit.

 

[txpd]

I don't understand why everyone wants to move Winnik, am I the only one here who sees how effective he's made that 4th line?

want A. must move B to achieve A.

Beagle's line is arguably the 3rd line and you see here people want to move Winnik or Wilson or both and probably wouldn't be against landing a Cody Eakin and pushing Beagle to wing.

It might be a shock that come playoffs the Caps will have to kill penalties and Winnik and Wilson are among the reasons the Caps have the best PK in the league right now(meaning that its been the best for a couple of months after a slow start)

EDIT: Just noticed that John Carlson has 0 PIMs. ZERO!!!

 

[BobRouse]

Beware....of "ok" players having outstanding statistical seasons on poor/below average teams.

Recall the Caps firesale and the couple years the preceeded that....when GMGM actually did excellent work.

Oates was leading the league in pts (up there at least) on a pathetic Caps 1st year Jagr team....GMGM fleeced Philly (tho he didn't do much with the fleecing..maybe using one pick to move up to get Semin). Oates went on to be brutal for Philly and was pointless in a quick series vs Ottawa that year (maybe he had a point..can't recall..but I think Philly went out in 4 or 5)

Two years later...

Robert Lang was leading the league in pts...GMGM fleeced Detroit (Flash and pick that turned out to be Mike Green). Lang was merely "OK" in Detroit and really didn't help them much.

also...Bondra was clearly a specialist player who was wearing down. Caps got a young Brooks Laich for him. Bondra went on to be very underwhelming in Ottawa b/c he wasn't being used on the point on the PP (were he racked up all his goals and points the last couple years with the Caps)


Its not as easy as BANG! "Add Vanek=PROFIT!!"....how many teams have been burned by this thinking? Especially when it comes to this particular player?

I don't understand why everyone wants to move Winnik, am I the only one here who sees how effective he's made that 4th line?

No. He's been outstanding and fills a very specific role on this team.

I'd hate to see your Phil Kessel rant.

Vanek is killing it this season playing an involved game and his bread and butter is net front play. Connolly had a lazy floater reputation prior to this year as well. The only thing that's changed is you watched one of them play and not the other.

Vanek is 33 years old. An old dog so to speak. His last two playoff appearances have been underwhelming.

He was never a great skater and at his age he has slowed down. Its a fast game and teams like the Pens and Rangers will abuse him.

Furthermore he is a scoring winger. He is one of those guys that's in the top 6 or not in the game at all.

We'd be bumping Marcus Johansson (a superior skater, younger and better defensive player) down and removing Burakovsky from the lineup while giving up significant assets for an old, slow, oft lazy player who provides zero physical edge and has not been good in the playoffs since his young days in Buffalo.

There is a reason he flopped with the Isles, Therrien hated him in Montreal and the Wild bought him out.

He's having himself a decent statistical season on a downward trending Detroit team. It would be the reverse Robert Lang trade and the Caps would be foolish to bring him aboard.

 

[twabby]

Why can't there be 4 scoring lines? Why would Vanek necessarily have to be in the top 6?

Columbus seems to be doing just fine with 4 scoring lines rather than requiring a "checking" line. Same with Pittsburgh to a lesser degree.

I don't necessarily think Vanek is the right TDL pickup because I don't know what his cost might be. But he's certainly an upgrade over a few roster players.

 

[BobRouse]

Why can't there be 4 scoring lines? Why would Vanek necessarily have to be in the top 6?

Columbus seems to be doing just fine with 4 scoring lines rather than requiring a "checking" line. Same with Pittsburgh to a lesser degree.

Because that is not how Trotz does things. He's more an old school guy.

Teams that use the 3/4 scoring lines like the Pens and Rangers usually have speed throughout. Vanek has no speed to speak of.

Its not surprising that he is having a strong year in a contract year on which he is on a mediocre team. Not surprising one bit.

 

[Sam Spade]

Meanwhile what the Caps need is for Kuznetsov to produce. They win last season with kuzy producing at a 0.5 ppg rate.

This can never be stated enough. Kuzy gets 3-5 points and the Caps beat the Pens.

Don't want Vanek, he disappears, we have enough of that already.

Agree I'd rather see Wilson go than Winnick.

Also agree that it takes four lines producing to win it all, there really is no other way. Four lines going means possession and possession wins. Pens won the Cup last year with Crosby (one of the best offensive players in the league) playing the roll of defensive specialist.

 

[um]

Because that is not how Trotz does things. He's more an old school guy.

Teams that use the 3/4 scoring lines like the Pens and Rangers usually have speed throughout. Vanek has no speed to speak of.

Its not surprising that he is having a strong year in a contract year on which he is on a mediocre team. Not surprising one bit.

I'd prefer to put Vanek with Kuz and Mojo on the third line, which would spread our speed out. Not to mention Vaneks skills are perfect for a playmaker like Kuznetsov.

 

[Hivemind]

Picks and prospects don't help you win a Stanley Cup this year. That's how buying at the trade deadline works. Even if they get a player who's "just OK" in Washington, if that "just OK" player provides enough depth to help them get playoff success, the mission is achieved. Chicago gave up a 1st round pick for Antoine Vermette, who played beneath the "just OK" level for most of his stay with the Blackhawks, but they got a Cup out of it. Marian Gaborik has declined since Los Angeles acquired him, but they too got a Stanley Cup out of it.

Yes, sometimes the prospects and picks you give up amount to something. But the Capitals aren't playing for the future right now.

 

[Raikkonen]

I don't understand why everyone wants to move Winnik, am I the only one here who sees how effective he's made that 4th line?

Not everyone WANTS that but who would you offer instead?

Connolly doesn't clear anything significant. Beagle is our hero.

Wilson? Ok, maybe, but he's PK guy too, he's younger and under Caps control. Cap hit is roughly the same. The logical choice is Winnik.

There are options of trading Orlov or Johansson. But they could be more effective than the player we will trade for.

Winnik is gone anyway. We can get something like a 2nd for him this deadline and clear significant amount of space.

His place goes to Connolly or Stephenson. I bet this is the default option for GMBM.

 

[BobRouse]

I'd prefer to put Vanek with Kuz and Mojo on the third line, which would spread our speed out. Not to mention Vaneks skills are perfect for a playmaker like Kuznetsov.

I imagine you meant 2nd line. Kuznetsov is not a strong enough defensive player to makeup for Vanek's lack of D.

Also Vanek is a LW isn't he? MJ is too and plays far better there than RW.

I don't believe Trotz would very much like a player like Vanek and it doesn't seem like BMac's MO.

Willaims and Oshie have been killing it. Williams is a proven playoff performer and Oshie was maybe our best forward vs the Pens last year.


I love our forward group from top to bottom. Each player is slotted to a role that suits them almost perfectly. There is no need to disrupt this especially for a player with a checkered past, is slow, older and inconsistent.

If anything we have good forward depth in Hershey with guys like Vrana, Boyd, Stephenson, Sanford.

If we are going to get someone it will probably be a better #7D than Chorney and move Chorney to #8 D.

 

[Hivemind]

He's saying put Vanek on #2 and bump Johansson to #3.

Also there's some serious inconsistency between calling Williams a "proven playoff performer" and citing Oshie as "maybe our best forward vs the Pens last year." Either you're valuing last year's performance over prior history (in which case Williams was not a strength last year), or you're putting more stock in total career performance (in which case Oshie has been a poor playoff performer). Right now you're cherry picking both to suit your perspective.


Once again, our forward group's depth hasn't been tested. The forward group, and the entire team, has been remarkably healthy. That won't be the case in the playoffs. Counting on Hershey to fill that gap when all we've seen is a handful of good games from Vrana and Sanford as a warm body is being overly optimistic.

 

[BobRouse]

Picks and prospects don't help you win a Stanley Cup this year. That's how buying at the trade deadline works. Even if they get a player who's "just OK" in Washington, if that "just OK" player provides enough depth to help them get playoff success, the mission is achieved. Chicago gave up a 1st round pick for Antoine Vermette, who played beneath the "just OK" level for most of his stay with the Blackhawks, but they got a Cup out of it. Marian Gaborik has declined since Los Angeles acquired him, but they too got a Stanley Cup out of it.

Yes, sometimes the prospects and picks you give up amount to something. But the Capitals aren't playing for the future right now.

More often those winning teams that make those trades win in spite of the trade as opposed to because of it.

For every Goring and Gaborik move there are 10-20 instances where said acquisition provides zero or negative effect. Oates, Lang, Iginla, Zubrus/Linden, Bondra, Sundin (not sure he was traded but was a mid season type acquisition at least), Glencross etc etc etc

you don't make a trade for the sake of making a trade. You make a trade to fill a specific need.

The Caps are in need of a depth Dman and nothing else barring significant injury.

He's saying put Vanek on #2 and bump Johansson to #3.

Also there's some serious inconsistency between calling Williams a "proven playoff performer" and citing Oshie as "maybe our best forward vs the Pens last year." Either you're valuing last year's performance over prior history (in which case Williams was not a strength last year), or you're putting more stock in total career performance (in which case Oshie has been a poor playoff performer). Right now you're cherry picking both to suit your perspective.


Once again, our forward group's depth hasn't been tested. The forward group, and the entire team, has been remarkably healthy. That won't be the case in the playoffs.

So move Burakovsky out of the lineup to fit Vanek in?? Gotcha

Bura is younger, faster, and hungrier defensively than Vanek. He is playing excellent with Eller and Connolly. They have chemistry.

This is not Fantasy hockey as many of you seem to think it is.

Yes Williams didn't have a great playoff last year but his track record is proven.

What has Vanek proved in the playoffs ever? That he sucks since Buffalo and his level of play has declined with age.

 

[Hivemind]

Nobody doubts that this team is capable of winning a Stanley Cup if everything goes right and everyone stays healthy. However, gambling on everything going right and everyone staying healthy is a rather foolhardy gamble. You need the depth to survive key players slumping at the wrong point and other guys getting hurt. If you want to rely on Hershey to fill that depth, they need to let the Hershey guys play NOW to prove they are capable of filling that role. The Penguins churned through a dozen different options before settling on Sheary and Rust. They didn't just call up guys from WBS during the playoffs and hope they worked.

More than likely it's going to require adding playing who are capable of handling the load, even if it means bumping someone else down the line-up or into the press box.

 

[Hivemind]

So move Burakovsky out of the lineup to fit Vanek in?? Gotcha

Bura is younger, faster, and hungrier defensively than Vanek. He is playing excellent with Eller and Connolly. They have chemistry.

Nobody said that, either. Wilson, Connolly, or Winnik could sit instead (or one of them is moved for salary cap considerations).

 

[hb13xchamps]

This can never be stated enough. Kuzy gets 3-5 points and the Caps beat the Pens.

Don't want Vanek, he disappears, we have enough of that already.

Agree I'd rather see Wilson go than Winnick.

Also agree that it takes four lines producing to win it all, there really is no other way. Four lines going means possession and possession wins. Pens won the Cup last year with Crosby (one of the best offensive players in the league) playing the roll of defensive specialist.

Crosby won the Conn Smythe trophy. Don't think he did that while playing a defensive specialist role.

Anyways, excluding last game, all our lines have been performing great. The 4th line may not be scoring a ton but they seem to be creating chances and all three of them have been great at penalty killing.

The Caps are in a tough situation right now because they are playing great and they are right up against the cap. Making a trade just for the sake of doing it seems silly. I wouldn't oppose to adding Vanek at the TDL, but it has to be the right deal and he has to be an ideal fit for our system. If management and the coaching staff doesn't believe that then move on and try to find another piece.

 

[BobRouse]

Nobody doubts that this team is capable of winning a Stanley Cup if everything goes right and everyone stays healthy. However, gambling on everything going right and everyone staying healthy is a rather foolhardy gamble. You need the depth to survive key players slumping at the wrong point and other guys getting hurt. If you want to rely on Hershey to fill that depth, they need to let the Hershey guys play NOW to prove they are capable of filling that role. The Penguins churned through a dozen different options before settling on Sheary and Rust. They didn't just call up guys from WBS during the playoffs and hope they worked.

More than likely it's going to require adding playing who are capable of handling the load, even if it means bumping someone else down the line-up or into the press box.

Who did the Penguins get at the TDL last year? I honestly can't recall.

In years past I remember they went all out at the TDL and several times "won" it. But in those years they tended to flame out harshly in springtime.

Last year they just called up their farm guys and they played just fine.

Nobody said that, either. Wilson, Connolly, or Winnik could sit instead (or one of them is moved for salary cap considerations).

I don't agree with disrupting 3 of our 4 lines which have all played well and had chemistry simply for the sake of shoe horning a old, slow and subpar playoff performer into the lineup.

Winnik and Wilson kill penalties. Vanek does not. Putting Burakovsky on the 4th line makes no sense at all. His game does not fit with that role.

 

[Blades of Steel]

Not everyone WANTS that but who would you offer instead?

Connolly doesn't clear anything significant. Beagle is our hero.

Wilson? Ok, maybe, but he's PK guy too, he's younger and under Caps control. Cap hit is roughly the same. The logical choice is Winnik.

There are options of trading Orlov or Johansson. But they could be more effective than the player we will trade for.

Winnik is gone anyway. We can get something like a 2nd for him this deadline and clear significant amount of space.

His place goes to Connolly or Stephenson. I bet this is the default option for GMBM.

I gotcha.

See, the the thing is, I don't want to move anyone. I think this group has built its chemistry and moving Winnik also disrupts that 4th lines chemistry which as been very good, not to mention you lose another PKer.

I understand the thought process of some posters wanting a shiny new piece and how to get it done, but I don't think it necessarily improves the team just for the sake of adding a player like Vanek.

I do not think the Caps will be selling anything, this team is on fire minus last game where I would personally just burn the tape due to multiple reasons.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I don't understand why everyone wants to move Winnik, am I the only one here who sees how effective he's made that 4th line?

Hardly.

 

[hb13xchamps]

The problem with using Pittsburgh as an example is that they were calling guys up from WBS when the team was underperforming and they were on track to fire their coach. The Caps situation is different from that.

Plus, they don't have the necessary cap space to be able to give all of these guys a chance.