Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXVIII (It's Working! Let's Fix It.)

[CapitalsCupReality]

Back in 2011 I recall a game vs the Ducks when we lost in OT 2-1. That was part of our 8 game losing streak.

At the time I immediately identified we were trapping. (just like the game against the Pens in 07 where Hanlon went to the trap)

A few weeks later on a Q&A someone asked Tarik about something along the lines of the team trapping. Tarik is actually pretty knowledgeable but he was luke warm in his answer.

Sometimes its hard to detect in hockey since its such a fluid fast paced sport. Even something as obvious as a trap.

In football its easy to see if a team is blitzing or just sitting back in a soft zone.

I've talked hockey with Tarik. His kids played with my buddies kids in the past. He's not all that technical. I guess I'm just not buying this compete system overhaul when it's barely noticeable and nobody is talking about it in the press. I'm more of a proof guy I guess. If it was just chatter amongst non-hockey press people, I could understand it, but May is providing some level of technical analysis of the team each night after a game and I see NOTHING about a system overhaul, NOTHING. I see a lot of talk about guys playing BETTER, with confidence, that's for sure.

 

[BobRouse]

When I watched those practices, I knew something was changing, that they were working on moving the puck around better. I had no idea that they were scrapping the old system and going with something entirely new offensively.

While what you say may very well be true and their has been some form of system change I still think our recent success has more to do with a 110 PDO!

Our shooting pctg early in the season was around 7-8% and our PP shooting pctg was even lower than that! We were getting terribly unlucky there and it took a bit before Holtby got traction.

It was bound to revert to the mean based on this teams talent level (which would definitely be a top 5 PDO team based on Holtby and elite shooters)

However 110 is a big spike and has more than made up for the early rough sledding. Its not going to last forever.

I've talked hockey with Tarik. His kids played with my buddies kids in the past. He's not all that technical. I guess I'm just not buying this compete system overhaul when it's barely noticeable and nobody is talking about it in the press. I'm more of a proof guy I guess.

Based on the above I'm clearly with you on this CCF. I think it has a lot less to do with systematic changes (altho there definitely has been some) and more to do with the puck bouncing our way recently when it was the exact opposite early on.

 

[g00n]

You've got to be kidding me. This is the era of sports over-analysis. This is all some big secret everyone in the press knows about but nobody is talking, or they're too dumb to see changes? May and Locker are plenty knowledgeable to be discussing such a HUGE thing that has seemingly righted the ship in DC. IMO, the best teams simply start to gel around Christmas time and later, but yeah, sure some system tweaks have occurred, but not some large completely new system. It feels like Randy has been screaming about it enough and they're winning, so the groupthink is falling in line.

I want to see technically what's really changed and I'd love to know if people in and around the team give much credit to that, or are they largely just playing better as a group and in some cases as individuals.

If Trotz is simply telling his D to be more active, is that a complete system overhaul?

Groupthink? I've seen the changes with my own eyes, noted elements as they evolved, and I've described them in detail. It's more than just activating the D. It's fine if you don't see it or believe a bunch of internet posters.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Groupthink? I've seen the changes with my own eyes, noted elements as they evolved, and I've described them in detail. It's more than just activating the D. It's fine if you don't see it or believe a bunch of internet posters.

The groupthink is that this was some major system overhaul.

I've said all along that tweaks have occurred and that's normal over an 82 game season.

 

[BobRouse]

Groupthink? I've seen the changes with my own eyes, noted elements as they evolved, and I've described them in detail. It's more than just activating the D. It's fine if you don't see it or believe a bunch of internet posters.

I do think we are playing higher event hockey than we were earlier on. And with a team of this skill level that is prudent.

Coin flip hockey is lower event. Trapping/1-3-1/6 man goalie system/Hunter hockey....these are systems used by teams with big flaws or sub par rosters (Ottawa for example, or what the Islanders used under Capuano EXCLUISVELY when they played us)

I suspect teams will start changing how they play us and turn the game into a coin flip as we are being more aggressive and they can't afford to get into a run and gun game (with the exception of Pittsburgh)

 

[g00n]

The groupthink is that this was some major system overhaul.

I've said all along that tweaks have occurred and that's normal over an 82 game season.

This sounds like a semantic argument with undefined terms. Not sure what you define as a "system overhaul" vs "tweaks".

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

This sounds like a semantic argument with undefined terms. Not sure what you define as a "system overhaul" vs "tweaks".

A tweak is telling your D to start being more aggressive carrying the puck, a tweak is telling guys to start going to net more, etc...vs rolling out an entirely new system like you see when a coaching change occurs mid-season.

Honestly we should all hope this is largely the players are playing better, because if this is simply a system change that's responsible for the recent success, that will be diagnosed and the league will adjust like Bob says above.


I chalk the recent success up to largely players playing better, some effective tweaks to the existing system and some good old fashioned bounces going our way. Confidence and momentum should not be so easily dismissed.

 

[g00n]

A tweak is telling your D to start being more aggressive carrying the puck, a tweak is telling guys to start going to net more, etc...vs rolling out an entirely new system like you see when a coaching change occurs mid-season.

What is their "system"?

 

[twabby]

I'll maintain my original theory: there was some sort of tweak or change made to the system to encourage more aggressive play by the defensemen, but the big change that happened was that Trotz finally juggled his defensive pairings and the new pairings found great chemistry. Niskanen-Orlov is the most dominant possession pairing in the entire NHL. Orpik-Schmidt is the third best. Just as forwards have to mesh with each other, so do defensemen.

Trotz was stubborn beyond belief with the Alzner-Niskanen pairing and that seriously hurt the team early in the season. They are a fine enough defensive pairing but they are completely devoid of any sort of puck-moving or offensive ability as a duo, despite usually getting top minutes with the best Capitals forwards. I think that was part of the reason the team looked offensively inept during the first 25-30 games of the season. There was no creativity or speed and I think a large part of that was poorly constructed defensive pairings (Carlson and Orlov never formed any sort of consistent chemistry, for instance).

There's a reason why the team thrived before Carlson was injured and struggled after Carlson was injured and it's not just because of the dropoff in talent between Carlson and Chorney. It's because the defensive pairings that had established great chemistry were changed as well. Sustained offense and possession starts from the defensemen IMO, and when you have three mediocre to bad pairings (27-2, 44-9, and 88-4) compared to two dominant (9-2 and 44-88) and one mediocre pairing (27-74), the dropoff is going to be dramatic.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

What is their "system"?

The one Trotz and company designed? Do you want to coin a name for it?? lol...I can't help you there.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I'll maintain my original theory: there was some sort of tweak or change made to the system to encourage more aggressive play by the defensemen, but the best thing that happened was that Trotz finally juggled his defensive pairings the new pairings found chemistry. Niskanen-Orlov is the most dominant possession pairing in the entire NHL. Orpik-Schmidt is the third best.

There's a reason why the team struggled after Carlson got injured and it's not just because of the dropoff in talent between Carlson and Chorney. It's because the defensive pairings were changed as well. Sustained offense and possession starts from the defensemen IMO, and when you have three mediocre to bad pairings (27-2, 44-9, and 88-4) compared to two dominant (9-2 and 44-88) and one mediocre pairing (27-74), the dropoff is going to be dramatic.

I tend to agree. I just hope the guys can hold up under pressure in the playoffs. 88 and 9 may be our biggest x-factors in the playoffs if they play well.

 

[Langway]

@JillCSN: Kuzy said that in the intermission Holtby said he wanted to see "the old Caps"

That was the 1/3 comeback win against Toronto. I tend to think back to that as the turning point when they woke up, began smashing teams and playing a far more consistent and focused brand of hockey. There were some lineup and tactical changes as well but I do think there's something to them simply being far more engaged than they had been. Their breakouts are cleaner and their poise on the puck is way better but the energy they've brought sparked their confidence and they've been rolling since.

 

[um]

So Eller and Connolly don't count? Bonino and Kessel don't count for the Pens? Just because these guys were acquired in the offseason as opposed to 20-30 games in the season?

Who's really nitpicking here?

when did i say they didn't count?

Despite many examples of teams improving there teams during the regular season for their playoff runs some people have the idea that that is an impossible thing for us to do because it's the Caps.

Every team can get a little better (without spending ridiculous amounts) to put the odds slightly more in their favor, that's all I want. GMBM has made many great moves bringing in Niskanen, Oshie, Williams, Eller, etc. So why stop and give up now?

 

[BobRouse]

when did i say they didn't count?

Despite many examples of teams improving there teams during the regular season for their playoff runs some people have the idea that that is an impossible thing for us to do because it's the Caps.

Every team can get a little better (without spending ridiculous amounts) to put the odds slightly more in their favor, that's all I want. GMBM has made many great moves bringing in Niskanen, Oshie, Williams, Eller, etc. So why stop and give up now?

Notice when all those moves were made?? Offseason.

Offseason moves are every bit as good (if not MUCH better) than TDL moves. Costs less, more time for players to get acclimated etc

Caps made their major TDL moves already.

 

[895]

This is seriously one of the dumbest semantics arguments ever.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

This is seriously one of the dumbest semantics arguments ever.

You've been a member for a while and THIS is the one? Hardly lol...

The discussion is complete system overhaul/changeout vs tweaks you see over an 82 game season. Which do you think has occurred?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

]@JillCSN: Kuzy said that in the intermission Holtby said he wanted to see "the old Caps"[/B]

That was the 1/3 comeback win against Toronto. I tend to think back to that as the turning point when they woke up, began smashing teams and playing a far more consistent and focused brand of hockey. There were some lineup and tactical changes as well but I do think there's something to them simply being far more engaged than they had been. Their breakouts are cleaner and their poise on the puck is way better but the energy they've brought sparked their confidence and they've been rolling since.

I have no doubt, that was a turning point in the locker-room.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

http://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/...tals-teams-a-killer-run-coming-all-star-break

Morning roundtable: Washington Capitals, Tampa Bay Lightning will run the table down the stretch

 

[txpd]

Every team can get a little better (without spending ridiculous amounts) to put the odds slightly more in their favor, that's all I want. GMBM has made many great moves bringing in Niskanen, Oshie, Williams, Eller, etc. So why stop and give up now?

Which top 6 forward or top 4 defenseman would you swap out for a possible upgrade and a splash?

Yes, adding a middle of the lineup player is possible in exchange for a quality future. 1st round pick or Vrana or Bowey. Which of those things would you be willing to give up and which middle of the lineup regular would want to replace in the lineup?

Sorry...Kart before the horse. Which top half of the lineup player is on a likely seller team that might be acquired?

 

[txpd]

http://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/...tals-teams-a-killer-run-coming-all-star-break

Morning roundtable: Washington Capitals, Tampa Bay Lightning will run the table down the stretch

That was an interesting read. "Well, yea....the Capitals, but I digress. Lets talk about anyone else."

 

[BobRouse]

http://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/...tals-teams-a-killer-run-coming-all-star-break

Morning roundtable: Washington Capitals, Tampa Bay Lightning will run the table down the stretch

Was listening to Filipovic on the recent PDO cast and they had the Tampa guy on there from SB nation.

He didn't paint a pretty picture. Seems their D is atrocious past the 1st pair and Cooper is drawing the ire of the fanbase with his TOI allocation.

Seems like they have soured on Johnson and Palat as they realized Kucherov is the real play driver on that line.

Their goaltending has not lived up to expectations and they are hoping to move Bishop for futures.

Next year they will get hit by a cap crunch and need to start planning for that lest they lose some key pieces. I think among others Drouin and Palat are up for new deals. I think..

Either way their blogger was not buying Tampa stock and said the team needs to think forward.

 

[um]

Which top 6 forward or top 4 defenseman would you swap out for a possible upgrade and a splash?

Yes, adding a middle of the lineup player is possible in exchange for a quality future. 1st round pick or Vrana or Bowey. Which of those things would you be willing to give up and which middle of the lineup regular would want to replace in the lineup?

Sorry...Kart before the horse. Which top half of the lineup player is on a likely seller team that might be acquired?

Connolly, and i'd be willing to give up a first or one of our defensive prospects. Vanek is an option, Vrbata, there's a few low cap hit forwards out there that don't require us to move anybody.

And I think our defense is ok and I'd rather spend our remaining Salary Cap room on a forward but some people want a new #7, so I guess I wouldn't mind that.

 

[tycoonheart]

You think that washintgon DC press cares about what system the caps are running? Lol

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

You think that washintgon DC press cares about what system the caps are running? Lol

Pretty sure May and Locker do since it's their job to discuss those things.

 

[um]

Notice when all those moves were made?? Offseason.

Offseason moves are every bit as good (if not MUCH better) than TDL moves. Costs less, more time for players to get acclimated etc

Caps made their major TDL moves already.

Eller for Chimera and Connolly for Richards is a major upgrade? As a team we haven't really changed that much.