Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXVIII (It's Working! Let's Fix It.)

[RandyHolt]

What series against the Pens did you watch?

Pitt spanked us pretty good. We were the presidents team, which carries expectations of roughly making the conference finals.

We gave up multiple odd mans rushes in every first period of games 1-4. My fav, we even gave up a breakaway goal off of a center ice faceoff. Our system was clearly being easily exploited (as it had been much of the spring, sadly).

Barry finally backed off the Dmen moving up, and paired Kuz with Ovi for game 5 to give us a glimmer of hope, but the dike broke proper in game 6. Many Caps fans had written us off by the end of the first period, heck if not at the end of game 4 after Pitt won LeTangLess.

We were a Jennings grade team defense with a Vezina goalie as backup and leagues best PP, yet got blown out early in game 6. Sure the Alzner injury was a factor but it was clear Pitt was the better team before that.

Only by the most bizarre of souvenir puck penalty sequences many have ever seen, were we afforded ~8-10 minutes of continuous PPs to make the final score respectable in game 6. So many overlapping PPs, that even Tom Wilson got PP time in THE most critical sequence of the season.

In the era of tight coin flip games, getting shelled early in game 6 and losing Round 2 4-2, we got schooled. Owned. Pawned. Some may even say we were choking dogs.

 

[um]

I like how we lost to the Pens despite Crosby and Malkin not playing that well. Imagine if one of them actually shows up this year.

 

[g00n]

Since Kuz was always at the root of the debates where I alleged the Trotz Post blizzard system change was a horrible fit for him, and that he didn't forget how to play offense....

Old: Kuz with the puck entering the zone, constrained like a cat in a shoe-box, as he bypassed creating scoring opportunities using his all world skill set, knowing the prime directive was to get the puck to "safety" behind the net, slow the game down, grind down defensemen to tire them out for easy goals later in the shift or game. Kuz used like a prototypical NA Grinder.

New: Kuz with the puck looking like an all star trying to set up his teammates for goals at every opportunity, featuring his creative passing and great shot. Kuz used to his strengths looking more like the total stud that we drafted.

One thing I have never seen discussed about Barry's old system. Our guys were behind their net a ton. Like all game long. When it inevitably came time to play defense again, they were literally as far away from our goal as they could be, supporting Holts. And tired to boot, from trying to tire out defensemen, while somehow not tiring themselves out.

The Kuz thing speaks to the natural talents bit I mentioned, but it's interesting you bring up the forwards being trapped low because I was thinking about that last night while watching the game. It does seem like a backfire strategy that locks you into keeping your defensemen inactive and on their heels.

I was pondering why playing so offensively wasn't really hurting them defensively. It occurred to me that the newer "system" spreads out the players more and doesn't get 2 or even 3 guys stuck low using the previous "support" method of stacking everyone on top of the puck on the boards. Instead, if you're on the wall you're trying to get free or get it to someone who's nearby but not right on top of you.

 

[hockeykicker]

I like how we lost to the Pens despite Crosby and Malkin not playing that well, imagine if one of them actually shows up this year.

Imagine if someone like kuznetsov shows up for the caps this year

 

[OV Rocks]

Imagine if someone like kuznetsov shows up for the caps this year

Easily the player that would have put this team over the top last season. Like how he is trending lately but still alot of season left.

I am still torn on what to do at the deadline, stand pat or go all in. The Washingotn Post article on the Caps trade deadline says they are pretty happy with their team which I think is true.

It also mentions that this is the best team Ovi has had and going forward it will be next to impossible to keep the team in tact for 2-3 more season. That is the type of mindset where you have to go all in on this season which would mean adding Top-4 D and a Top-6 Forward.

 

[txpd]

Pitt spanked us pretty good. We were the presidents team, which carries expectations of roughly making the conference finals.

In most playoff systems the #1 seed cant play the #2 seed until the finals or in a conference playoff system the conference finals.

Caps were 1 and Pittsburgh 2.

In a normal system the Caps would have played the winner of the 4-5 series. Rangers v Islanders. Not the Penguins.

The Penguins meanwhile proved to be an inferior team that any real Presidents team should have beat in a walk

 

[BobRouse]

Pitt spanked us pretty good. We were the presidents team, which carries expectations of roughly making the conference finals.

We gave up multiple odd mans rushes in every first period of games 1-4. My fav, we even gave up a breakaway goal off of a center ice faceoff. Our system was clearly being easily exploited (as it had been much of the spring, sadly).

Barry finally backed off the Dmen moving up, and paired Kuz with Ovi for game 5 to give us a glimmer of hope, but the dike broke proper in game 6. Many Caps fans had written us off by the end of the first period, heck if not at the end of game 4 after Pitt won LeTangLess.

We were a Jennings grade team defense with a Vezina goalie as backup and leagues best PP, yet got blown out early in game 6. Sure the Alzner injury was a factor but it was clear Pitt was the better team before that.

Only by the most bizarre of souvenir puck penalty sequences many have ever seen, were we afforded ~8-10 minutes of continuous PPs to make the final score respectable in game 6. So many overlapping PPs, that even Tom Wilson got PP time in THE most critical sequence of the season.

In the era of tight coin flip games, getting shelled early in game 6 and losing Round 2 4-2, we got schooled. Owned. Pawned. Some may even say we were choking dogs.

I didn't see it that way at ALL! In fact the stats show we had overall 5 on 5 advantage puck possession wise I thought.

First couple games and game 4 were back and forth. Game 3 in Pitt was complete domination by us yet somehow we lost. Game 5 could have been a lot worse if we capitalized on chances in the 1st.

In game 6 we scored 2 goals and made it 3-2 before all those delay of game penalties. I mean it was already 3-2 by then.

The problem was with all those PPs in a row our top 6 guys and top D were spent. We ran out of gas and Alzner got hurt so Pitt ran roughshot over lines 3 and 4.

Overall it was a very even series. 3 games went to OT! 2 games were went right down to the wire.

 

[twabby]

I didn't see it that way at ALL! In fact the stats show we had overall 5 on 5 advantage puck possession wise I thought.

First couple games and game 4 were back and forth. Game 3 in Pitt was complete domination by us yet somehow we lost. Game 5 could have been a lot worse if we capitalized on chances in the 1st.

In game 6 we scored 2 goals and made it 3-2 before all those delay of game penalties. I mean it was already 3-2 by then.

The problem was with all those PPs in a row our top 6 guys and top D were spent. We ran out of gas and Alzner got hurt so Pitt ran roughshot over lines 3 and 4.

Overall it was a very even series. 3 games went to OT! 2 games were went right down to the wire.

It wasn't utter domination but Pittsburgh did have the edge in play IMO. The slight edge in play that the Capitals top 6 had was overcome by the sheer dominance of the Penguins bottom 6. Johansson, Wilson, Beagle, Chimera, Richards, and Winnik were pretty much black holes at even strength while Hagelin, Bonino, Kessel, Fehr, Cullen, and Kuhnhakl made significant contributions and owned the puck.

I don't really like when people point to Kuznetsov not scoring as being the reason they lost. It's disingenuous and masks the fact that the bottom 6 was no match for the Penguins bottom 6.

 

[Hivemind]

One name I saw floated on the trade board that would interest me greatly is Jay Bouwmeester. He's got a $5.4M cap hit and two years remaining after this one, so the cap maneuvering to fit him would be rather difficult (St. Louis unlikely to retain a significant amount with 2 years left on the contract).


Carrying a full 23-man roster, the Capitals only have a projected $1.7M at the deadline. If they send Djoos and Stephenson back down ASAP, it clears some more space to bank up to the deadline. They won't hit $5.4M, nor even the ~$4.5Mish they were projected prior to the first Stephenson recall, but they could possibly get within striking distance of Bouwmeester's cap figure (close enough that moving out Winnik or a similar salary would work).

 

[BobRouse]

It wasn't utter domination but Pittsburgh did have the edge in play IMO. The slight edge in play that the Capitals top 6 had was overcome by the sheer dominance of the Penguins bottom 6. Johansson, Wilson, Beagle, Chimera, Richards, and Winnik were also pretty much black holes at even strength while Hagelin, Bonino, Kessel, Fehr, Cullen, and Kuhnhakl made significant contributions and owned the puck.

We won the Corsi and had about 30% more high danger chances if I recall. We just didn't finish.

We didn't get pucks deflecting off their D going in like they did on us.

Shots on goal were close but we did have the higher quality looks overall. Ovechkin outscored Malkin and Crosby combined. Our top 6 did dominate theirs.

Our bottom 6 was a tire fire.

One name I saw floated on the trade board that would interest me greatly is Jay Bouwmeester. He's got a $5.4M cap hit and two years remaining after this one, so the cap maneuvering to fit him would be rather difficult (St. Louis unlikely to retain a significant amount with 2 years left on the contract).


Carrying a full 23-man roster, the Capitals only have a projected $1.7M at the deadline. If they send Djoos and Stephenson back down ASAP, it clears some more space to bank up to the deadline. They won't hit $5.4M, nor even the ~$4.5Mish they were projected prior to the first Stephenson recall, but they could possibly get within striking distance of Bouwmeester's cap figure (close enough that moving out Winnik or a similar salary would work).

Why would we want that guy?

Bouwmeester these days is more of an offensive black hole than Alzner. He doesn't hit anyone, brings about zero intensity and would cost a fair bit to get.

I've never been a big fan of the guy.

 

[twabby]

Mark Barberio is on waivers. I'd pick him up (or put a claim in at least).

 

[twabby]

One name I saw floated on the trade board that would interest me greatly is Jay Bouwmeester. He's got a $5.4M cap hit and two years remaining after this one, so the cap maneuvering to fit him would be rather difficult (St. Louis unlikely to retain a significant amount with 2 years left on the contract).


Carrying a full 23-man roster, the Capitals only have a projected $1.7M at the deadline. If they send Djoos and Stephenson back down ASAP, it clears some more space to bank up to the deadline. They won't hit $5.4M, nor even the ~$4.5Mish they were projected prior to the first Stephenson recall, but they could possibly get within striking distance of Bouwmeester's cap figure (close enough that moving out Winnik or a similar salary would work).

Bouwmeester has fallen off a cliff and I wouldn't touch him. He doesn't drive possession and doesn't score, and isn't particularly effective defensively either. I'm not even really sure he's better than Brooks Orpik, so I don't know why the Caps would want to add another Brooks Orpik contract.

 

[OV Rocks]

Throw out Corsi in the playoffs please. It is a nice stat to track regular season play but in the playoffs its irrelevant. No stat can track how badly a player wants to win and all that matters is depth and catching fire at the right time.

 

[Stewie G]

We won the Corsi and had about 30% more high danger chances if I recall. We just didn't finish.

We didn't get pucks deflecting off their D going in like they did on us.

Shots on goal were close but we did have the higher quality looks overall. Ovechkin outscored Malkin and Crosby combined. Our top 6 did dominate theirs.

Our bottom 6 was a tire fire.



Why would we want that guy?

Bouwmeester these days is more of an offensive black hole than Alzner. He doesn't hit anyone, brings about zero intensity and would cost a fair bit to get.

I've never been a big fan of the guy.

Just curious how much you've watch the Blues this year. As is par for the course, that's a bold evaluation of player on a different team. I wonder what the advanced stats have to say.

Edit: Twabby jumps in with the advanced stats recap.

 

[Stewie G]

Throw out Corsi in the playoffs please. It is a nice stat to track regular season play but in the playoffs its irrelevant. No stat can track how badly a player wants to win and all that matters is depth and catching fire at the right time.

You know who wanted to win badly? Quintin Laing. I wouldn't want him dressing in any playoff games though.

 

[trick9]

The one where Pitt had outshot us in 4 of the 6 games and 3 of those games Pitt outshot us by 10+ shots. It was obvious we were having trouble with their style.

Capitals dominated the Penguins in both scoring chances and high-danger scoring chances throughout the series. Shots on goal is a good stat but it's highly misleading.

 

[BobRouse]

Just curious how much you've watch the Blues this year. As is par for the course, that's a bold evaluation of player on a different team. I wonder what the advanced stats have to say.

Edit: Twabby jumps in with the advanced stats recap.

I watched him a ton when he was in Florida in his best days and he wasn't all that.

The times I do watch him since he's been far from impressive. Looking up the stats and seeing what their fans have to say about him certainly seem to corroborate what I've thought about him.

He is the anti-Scott Stevens who brought a fury and passion for the game that absolutely rubs off positively on team mates.

Bouwmeester saps the life out of me watching him play. He seems to despise contact and rarely comes across as engaged to me.

 

[txpd]

quick reminder look. Penguins won 2 games in regulation. 2-1 and 3-2Caps won 1 game in regulation. 3-1. 3 games went to overtime.

I don't see a spanking there.

 

[BobRouse]

Capitals dominated the Penguins in both scoring chances and high-danger scoring chances throughout the series. Shots on goal is a good stat but it's highly misleading.

This is what I saw. We had at one point in the series 50% more scoring chances than they did.

Remember Pitt blocked a TON of shots!! We fired a bunch wide.

That's why Corsi takes in Shot Attempts as opposed to SOG.

I like how we lost to the Pens despite Crosby and Malkin not playing that well. Imagine if one of them actually shows up this year.

Maybe that had something to do with being matched against our top 6 which tilted the ice in our favor?

 

[twabby]

Mark Barberio is exactly the type of depth addition the Capitals could add now instead of at the deadline. It would allow him more time to gel with the team and wouldn't cost the team any assets at all. Further, he only makes $750k, which can easily fit under the cap.

He's a possession driver and while he doesn't score a ton, he's still a much better replacement than Taylor Chorney is. He plays on the right side too, so that adds to his value.

If he goes through unclaimed it would be a huge mistake IMO. He's a good player, and it further cements my view that many teams simply have no idea how to evaluate defensemen.

 

[BobRouse]

If he goes through unclaimed it would be a huge mistake IMO. He's a good player, and it further cements my view that many teams simply have no idea how to evaluate defensemen.

Do you still think McPhee is our GM??

We hit a home run with Niskanen. We are giving Schmidt and everday jersey. We bumped Orpik down and moved Orlov up. We let everyone's most hated player Green walk.

Exactly how are we not evaluating Dmen correctly? B/c we don't hurry to dumpster dive?

This is a move McPhee would be all over that he would be crushed over.

 

[twabby]

Capitals dominated the Penguins in both scoring chances and high-danger scoring chances throughout the series. Shots on goal is a good stat but it's highly misleading.

Then use expected goals, which accounts for shot-quality.

The Capitals were below 50% in xGF% in 4 out of the 6 games. And guess what? They lost 4 out of 6 games.

You can't just ignore the lower quality shots. They have an associated probability of becoming goals as well and they are typically far more numerous than high quality shots. Those expected goals from low-quality shots add up if you allow enough of them.

 

[twabby]

Do you still think McPhee is our GM??

We hit a home run with Niskanen. We are giving Schmidt and everday jersey. We bumped Orpik down and moved Orlov up. We let everyone's most hated player Green walk.

Exactly how are we not evaluating Dmen correctly? B/c we don't hurry to dumpster dive?

This is a move McPhee would be all over that he would be crushed over.

It was more saying Montreal should not be putting a player that good on waivers, especially when someone like Alexei Emelin is getting top pairing minutes for some reason.

I'm not saying put Barberio in the lineup. I'm saying he's a ton better than Chorney as a 7D. Both players are sheltered, but while Chorney gets killed even in sheltered minutes Barberio thrives in them.

 

[BobRouse]

It was more saying Montreal should not be putting a player that good on waivers, especially when someone like Alexei Emelin is getting top pairing minutes for some reason.

I'm not saying put Barberio in the lineup. I'm saying he's a ton better than Chorney as a 7D. Both players are sheltered, but while Chorney gets killed even in sheltered minutes Barberio thrives in them.

Makes sense. But there are other factors that we don't see from the outside looking in.

Also a guy like Therrien strikes me of preferring big time experienced vets over youngish guys who are still finding their way.

Therrien is not a good coach. He gets butchered on the PDO cast everytime his name gets brought up. I don't think Montreal is a franchise that believes in advanced stats

 

[Jags]

I'd try to move bottom 6 plYers that are most likely NOT going to produce at all or much for more contributing players. This means Wilson, Eller, Connolly, Schmidt, and Orpik would all be available - and to get a great return id have Samsonov, our first rd pick Johanson, our current first rd pick, etc all as add one to make a deal worth it.

Those guys are all playing well. I might move Wilson in the right deal, but the rest of those guys have played lights-out for us recently.

Samsonov has little in the way of actual value right now, especially with expansion making the goalie market so wide open. Johansen is about the same -- still undersized despite his frame, a 28th many believe we reached for. And our 1st this year isn't worth much, either. The plan is to go deep, so you're talking a late 1st in a weak draft. Pretty much every contender's 1st will be on the table at the deadline.

Schmidt is fine - but a guy like Shattenkirk is better. I'd do L Johansson + Schmidt for Shattrnkirk all day.

He'll be coveted by everyone at the TDL, so I don't think that deal gets it done. How much more are you willing to part with? Also keep in mind that that the fan trade philosophy of "I would trade the players I don't want for the players everyone wants" isn't typically how the world works.

Wilson helps on PK but preventing goals isn't Caps issue - it's depth scoring. I'd trade him and a first rd pick and even Samsonov for someone like Duchene.

Again, that's not a realistic trade. They'd want more, and are specifically looking for impact D that can play now. You'd also have to figure out how to dump about $500K in cap room to make it work. So try that again, with more salary going the other way, a top 4 D in the deal that they would want, and a plan for how you get Colorado to take another Russian goalie from us.

I'm not saying Col/StL do these deals I'm just giving examples.

I totally understand. But your philosophy and perceived value of the best players available at the TDL are just plain skewed, Spin. Even if those deals were close to representing your proposed return value, you KNOW that those offers would be topped by other teams.

If that's what you think their bid-up TDL value is, EVERYONE would make deals of that nature.

Also, how can you keep saying we are better?

Because that's what the word "better" means. Last year's team was much-improved over the year before. This year's team is more complete. We lost 2 guys and replaced them with guys that are WAY better. Everyone else was a key part in a 1-seed, so there wasn't much to do. We banked on Eller and Connolly being upgrades to Richards and Chimera (and they totally are) and on our young players stepping up and playing better, more complete games this year (and they totally are).

We have literally, objectively gotten better as a team each year of Trotz/MacLellan.

Now we have Eller who may have good possession - but he has 15 points in like 50 games - and Beagle still centering the other line. It's a concern.

For who?

Eller and Beagle are playing great. Eller has started to gel magnificently with that line and has easily been one of our best players over the last several weeks. Beagle is one of the best 4Cs in the league and a vital, versatile player for us.

I don't think a caps third or fourth line can still contribute significantly enough if a team decided to just try to contain our top 2 lines to win multiple series in a row.

Okay, and I think you're wrong. Our bottom 6 has been on fire recently. I'm sure that'll cool off some, but in terms of possession and production, that area of our lineup is way better than last year.

You want to figure out a way to maybe move Wilson and our 1st and whatever for someone like Vanek? If that's possible -- and I don't think it is -- I'd be open to it. His is the only spot in our forward lineup I'm iffy about. But making that trade happen would be nigh impossible (unless Detroit really likes Wilson).

Pittsburgh fired a coach and changed a system completely and mid season went on a cup run. Why? They put their roster in a position to best succeed and they made aggressive moves to add a lot of talent. Caps never even try this.

Hindsight, Spin. You simply can't say that without the benefit of hindsight.

Any idiot can say, "Pitt traded for these 2 guys and they won a Cup! So those are the guys I would have traded for! And these are the two guys that sucked for us in the playoffs, so those are the guys I would have replaced!!!"

That, once upon a time, a couple teams made key moves (some of which only look that way in hindsight) that helped them win Cups doesn't make dramatic, mid-season moves some huge, necessary ingredient in winning championships. Those teams had real, concerning holes to fill and were not playing their best hockey when the vast majority of the trades you're talking about took place.

The last two seasons, we have not had glaring holes to fill. We were/are playing our best hockey. We were/are leading the entire league in points, and this year we're way up in categories (possession, D, 5v5, etc) that definitely matter come playoff time. You don't screw around with a team like that.

MAYBE see if you can upgrade Wilson, maybe add D depth. Anything more than that, in my opinion, would have to be a sweetheart deal for us. So yeah, if someone fantastic falls in our lap for cheap, sure, make that deal. Otherwise, I'd just be looking for a D.