A guarantee: Dubas will get us a pp d-man at deadline

[Dekes For Days]

In the playoffs when everything gets tighter, and teams collapse back into their own zone in a tight 5 man box it keeps everything on the outside and on the perimeter.
Passing through and creating lanes becomes impossible and the HDSC area is boxed out.
So what would be the best solutions .. Having a players with grit and backbone going to the tough areas and a Dman with a big powerful shot to get pucks through and on net from distance and score some greasy goals on rebounds.
I guess from some Leaf fans "respect in the handshake line" is good enough, despite watching Hedman blow it by the goalie on the PP to return that end result.

Slapshots from the point are not the best creator of rebounds, and the referenced Hedman goal wasn't even on the PP.
Only 13% of shots and 10% of goals were slapshots in the playoffs last year.
Out of 562 goals scored in the playoffs last year, only 5 were from defenseman slapshots on the PP.

Its quite humourous whenever something the Leafs are missing is identified and pointing out, that its not required.

What's quite humourous is that anything we don't have or do in abundance is somehow turned into this massive issue and weakness that needs fixing, even when the proof of it being a league-wide phenomenon and the proof that it's not detrimental is right in front of your face.

 

[Jeffrey Pedler]

Leafs need to build from the backend like a real team

We have built from the backend

Draft
Rielly 1st round
Liljegren 1st round
Sandin 1st round
Holl 4th round

Trade
Muzzin
Giordano
Timmins

FA
Brodie
Mete
Benn

What more do you want? We have a nice mix of old and young.

 

[IPS]

We have too many here more interested in pushing their always right narrative and unable to look at anything having merit if it falls outside of their expert opinions.

It’s gotten quite tiresome really, and mostly why I’d don’t even pother replying to them, to be honest.

A complete inability to listen to someone with a different perspective and ultimately say “we will agree to disagree then” is something I am good with but rarely ever seen here anymore.

Instead we have people who will hijack a thread and argue for 5 pages, right down to use of semantics. Quite boring to be honest.

TBH it's really only one poster who does that. And he doesn't even do it by being correct, it's based on an obssession about getting the last word in so he can mark it on his "internet arguments won" whiteboard.

 

[ACC1224]

TBH it's really only one poster who does that. And he doesn't even do it by being correct, it's based on an obssession about getting the last word in so he can mark it on his "internet arguments won" whiteboard.

The insecurity is off the charts.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The slapshot from the point isn’t dying, Dekes. It’s an optional tactical choice in a fluid sport and can be used when situationally appropriate.
Morgan Rielly might score on a slapshot from the point tonight or in OT of a Game 7 and it won’t be a referendum on your little ideas one way or another. It’s just an option.

The slapshot from the point is dying, Stephen. Sticking your head in the sand doesn't change that. Morgan Rielly scoring on a slapshot from the point tonight or in OT of game 7 wouldn't change that. It's not "my little ideas". It's just a fact. That doesn't mean it can never be used and will never work, but it's usually a worse option, and usually doesn't work. It's not worth expending assets for, or worth losing other attributes in your unit to get a slightly better one.

It is an optional choice that can be used when situationally appropriate, and we do utilize it when situationally appropriate (and have players that have pretty decent ones), but it's never going to be enough for you because the factual amount that it is situationally appropriate, especially when you have four top-tier forwards with good to amazing shots in better scoring positions, is less than you want it to be.

 

[Cap'n Flavour]

Out of 562 goals scored in the playoffs last year, only 5 were from defenseman slapshots on the PP.

Yes... but, had the Leafs scored just two of those five goals in game 7 vs Tampa, they would have won the series. Checkmate!

 

[IPS]

Top 5 regular season PP teams since we've drafted Matthews:

Tampa
Edmonton
Toronto
Boston
Pittsburgh

Top 5 playoff PP teams in that time span:

Boston
Tampa
Washington
Colorado
Edmonton

Pittsburgh lands at 7th

Toronto lands at....... 21st.

Please, keep telling us that our new analytics revelation on how to run a PP is working.


Edit: Since Dubas took over: Leafs regular season PP - 5th place, 23.6%

Playoff PP% in that span: 21st, 15%.

Now take Boston in that time span: Regular season: 3rd place, 24.3

Playoff PP%: 28.7%

Do it with the other teams and you'll see the trend becomes obvious. Other teams maintain their elite PP going into the playoffs. But the Leafs? Ours falls of a cliff.

 

[Dekes For Days]

How many goals has Rielly scored this year though?

I don't really care. He didn't forget how to shoot.
Our PP isn't really set up for Rielly to be the scorer. We have four top tier players with good to amazing shots in better positions to shoot.
If the situation arises for him to blast it, he's very capable of doing so.

It's easier to cheat with our PP because Rielly outside of 1 year at 20 goals, isn't really a shot threat.

Rielly is still a threat at that position. Maybe not as much as some to blast it directly into the net, but that's a rare thing to happen for anybody anyway.
There are other ways to be effective from that position, and no, penalty kills can't and don't just ignore people who don't often use booming slapshots from the point. That's silly.

 

[Oscar Peterson]

Why are people getting so worked up about the semantics of the word “booming point shot”? I don’t see anyone here saying that our PP would be better if all we did was hammer point shots instead of trying to feed our forwards for better chances lmao. Nor are we going to be acquiring a PP specialist at the deadline. But I think it’s valid that Rielly isn’t the best PP defenseman, his offensive value has always been more from transition rather than in-zone play.

The issue is more-so that Rielly doesn’t really have natural shooting tendency and most times it’s very obvious when he’s going to make a pass. Sandin doesn’t have the most powerful point shot either but he’s better at selling a shot and then making a pass (read in an article that when Rielly was out and Sandin was on the first unit our shots/60, scoring chances/60, and expected goals/60 were higher across the board despite having an unsustainably low shooting percentage).

I think arguments like “Leafs are #8 in PP%” and “Leafs were #1 last year” are maybe a bit lazy especially when considering how almost every year our powerplay tends to trend down in effectiveness as the year progresses. Personally I genuinely believe that no other team in the league can ice a better 4 forwards than Matthews Marner Nylander Tavares on the powerplay and despite our powerplay being good in the scope of the entire league it always feels like it’s still not clicking at its full potential.

 

[kevsh]

You're preaching to the conventional wisdom choir here. But if you look at the Bourne piece it looks like the Leafs really prefer to generate shots from the circles and down based on their heat map behavior.

Seems like it, but the potential downside is if opponents know you're never shooting from the point then their forwards can play lower in their own zone and take away ice for Toronto forwards. Sometimes you need to have the D shoot - even better if they are a legit scoring threat* - just to keep opponents honest.

* Unfortunately, in the Leafs case they don't have a big shot from the point, but it still makes sense for the reason I outlined.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I don't really care. He didn't forget how to shoot.
Our PP isn't really set up for Rielly to be the scorer. We have four top tier players with good to amazing shots in better positions to shoot.
If the situation arises for him to blast it, he's very capable of doing so.

Rielly is still a threat at that position. Maybe not as much as some to blast it directly into the net, but that's a rare thing to happen for anybody anyway.
There are other ways to be effective from that position, and no, penalty kills can't and don't just ignore people who don't often use booming slapshots from the point. That's silly.

I think we just disagree on the effectiveness of a guy like Rielly on the PP, no big deal.

I'm not necessarily advocating for Chychrun either because of the cost + injury history but if his shot doesn't outright beat goalies, it's so damned heavy that it does create rebounds.

I even have a healthy respect for guys that can simply get a shot off fast and consistently through traffic.

Franson was flawed to be sure but his shot was actually excellent because it got through quite a bit. Niemela is another example, he walks the line quite well to open up his own shooting lane so even though its not a bomb, if it gets through the traffic, he's got a chance.

 

[Dekes For Days]

(read in an article that when Rielly was out and Sandin was on the first unit our shots/60, scoring chances/60, and expected goals/60 were higher across the board despite having an unsustainably low shooting percentage).

Limited information can be drawn from such small samples, but for the record, our shot production was higher with Sandin than Rielly, but our high danger chance and expected goal production was slightly lower, and our goal production was significantly lower. The unit with Sandin actually had so much trouble scoring that they went to the 5 forward unit.

 

[barilko05]

I think we just disagree on the effectiveness of a guy like Rielly on the PP, no big deal.

I'm not necessarily advocating for Chychrun either because of the cost + injury history but if his shot doesn't outright beat goalies, it's so damned heavy that it does create rebounds.

I even have a healthy respect for guys that can simply get a shot off fast and consistently through traffic.

Franson was flawed to be sure but his shot was actually excellent because it got through quite a bit. Niemela is another example, he walks the line quite well to open up his own shooting lane so even though its not a bomb, if it gets through the traffic, he's got a chance.

Franson was for sure not the greatest D in the world. But the guy could thread the puck to the net on PP. Some just have that knack, even if their shot isn't an Al McInnis cannon blast.

I don't know why Rielly was so effective the year he scored 20. Was it him, or the system we were employing on the PP? Maybe he should revisit tape from that season and see what it was he was doing that made it work so well. I mean, they do it for pitchers in baseball, right?

 

[WTFMAN99]

Franson was for sure not the greatest D in the world. But the guy could thread the puck to the net on PP. Some just have that knack, even if their shot isn't an Al McInnis cannon blast.

If that guy could skate just a bit better, you're looking at Ryan Pulock essentially.

 

[Oscar Peterson]

Limited information can be drawn from such small samples, but for the record, our shot production was higher with Sandin than Rielly, but our high danger chance and expected goal production was slightly lower, and our goal production was significantly lower. The unit with Sandin actually had so much trouble scoring that they went to the 5 forward unit.

Not according to the article I read (A Monday Morning Leafs Report on the Athletic which had all three stats higher except the shooting percentage of 6.8% which I’m sure you’d agree is unsustainably low), must be a minor a discrepancy in the stats. Also do you have the game log for when we first went to the 5 forward unit? Thought Sandin missed that game.

Either way what’s your endgame argument here? That our powerplay is firing at full potential, Morgan Rielly couldn’t possibly be more effective, and dips in our powerplay efficiency are just random streaks of poor luck that coincidentally always seem to happen at the end of the season and going into the playoffs? Or that maybe Matthews Nylander Marner Tavares are maybe not as good at the powerplay as their even strength dominance would suggest? I’m honestly curious. I really think there’s no reason our PP shouldn’t be top 3 in the league every year with those guys.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

We do have threats. You don't need a big slap shot to be a threat. That's what some people don't seem to understand, because their mindset is stuck decades in the past.

I don't know dekes. If only we could praise Dubas' Future Forward innovations.

Are you referring to Chara's big shot from the point? I suppose they haven't won since 2011. To your credit that does count as a decade. I just think that BOS won the cup that year due to so many other strengths.

The Corsi Cup doesn't exist, and the Stanley Cup is why Dubas is here. Leaf fans will give him all the due recognition once the results appear.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Small sample size (<= 7 games per year), but how is our PP in the playoffs ?? As @ACC1224 says, what's wrong with having another option ?? Clearly the Leafs do not believe Rielly is the answer and if our 5 forward PP gives up a shorty or two and we exit in round #1, the media and fanbase will eat them alive.

I thought Keefe only went to using 5 forwards on their 1st line power play because of Rielly's injury earlier this season? Before that happened he was using Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander, and Rielly when they were on the power play.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Not according to the article I read (A Monday Morning Leafs Report on the Athletic which had all three stats higher except the shooting percentage of 6.8% which I’m sure you’d agree is unsustainably low), must be a minor a discrepancy in the stats. Also do you have the game log for when we first went to the 5 forward unit? Thought Sandin missed that game.

Well, those are the stats according to Naturalstattrick. I wonder if they were actually looking at just the 5 man units?
6.8% is unsustainably low, but I don't really see anything that screams Sandin being a better option.
It looks like Bunting was put on that unit December 17th, and Sandin played.

Either way what’s your endgame argument here? That our powerplay is firing at full potential, Morgan Rielly couldn’t possibly be more effective, and dips in our powerplay efficiency are just random streaks of poor luck that coincidentally always seem to happen at the end of the season and going into the playoffs? Or that maybe Matthews Nylander Marner Tavares are maybe not as good at the powerplay as their even strength dominance would suggest? I’m honestly curious. I really think there’s no reason our PP shouldn’t be top 3 in the league every year with those guys.

No, I haven't said any of those things. I've merely pushed back on the idea that we need a big booming shot from the point based on this imagined and already debunked theory that it's necessary to be effective and we're critically flawed without it. I don't think it's particularly shocking that our PP scoring, like our other scoring, is not as abundant in the playoffs when we've largely been facing top tier defensive teams, the best playoff goaltending in the league, or both, but I know a lot of people refuse to accept that reality of our situation.

All PPs also do go through hot and cold stretches. I don't think we've been firing on all cylinders at all times this year, but it's pretty lazy to just blame Rielly, especially when the unit's best moments have literally come with Rielly. And while I'm sure that there are better PP defenseman than Rielly out there, the abuse he gets in that area is really over the top and undeserved, and any upgrade would not be about getting some big slapshot. Rielly is a perfectly good option, and I don't really see a better option on the team or worth acquiring for whatever miniscule bonus they'd give on a unit that doesn't need their defenseman to be blasting shots anyway.

I don't think our PP is perfect, and there are obviously things we could try or adjust, but we should be talking realistic options that will actually help us, not falling back on outdated ideas that the league has moved away from for a reason.

 

[Oscar Peterson]

Well, those are the stats according to Naturalstattrick. I wonder if they were actually looking at just the 5 man units?
6.8% is unsustainably low, but I don't really see anything that screams Sandin being a better option.
It looks like Bunting was put on that unit December 17th, and Sandin played.

No, I haven't said any of those things. I've merely pushed back on the idea that we need a big booming shot from the point based on this imagined and already debunked theory that it's necessary to be effective and we're critically flawed without it. I don't think it's particularly shocking that our PP scoring, like our other scoring, is not as abundant in the playoffs when we've largely been facing top tier defensive teams, the best playoff goaltending in the league, or both, but I know a lot of people refuse to accept that reality of our situation.

All PPs also do go through hot and cold stretches. I don't think we've been firing on all cylinders at all times this year, but it's pretty lazy to just blame Rielly, especially when the unit's best moments have literally come with Rielly. And while I'm sure that there are better PP defenseman than Rielly out there, the abuse he gets in that area is really over the top and undeserved, and any upgrade would not be about getting some big slapshot. Rielly is a perfectly good option, and I don't really see a better option on the team or worth acquiring for whatever miniscule bonus they'd give on a unit that doesn't need their defenseman to be blasting shots anyway.

I don't think our PP is perfect, and there are obviously things we could try or adjust, but we should be talking realistic options that will actually help us, not falling back on outdated ideas that the league has moved away from for a reason.

Yeah the stats that they posted were specifically the 5 man unit of Matthews-Marner-Nylander-Tavares-Rielly vs Matthews-Marner-Nylander-Tavares-Sandin. The largest discrepancy was in the shots/60 and it should be noted that scoring chances and expected goals were only marginally higher with Sandin. I think Sandin has better tools to be a PP guy, I think he’s a more creative passer with better vision and has more of a shooting instinct but he’s not in his prime yet, I think when he has more offensive confidence in a couple of years he’ll be taking over from Rielly, and I’m not convinced that if we have that unit more time it wouldn’t start to fire on all cylinders. Disclaimer though, I’m pretty high on Sandin.

And sorry, I wasn’t trying to put words in your mouth but from following the conversation at a distance you seemed to be getting kind of worked up and arguing against points that no one was saying. I am in agreement that we shouldn’t go out an acquire someone, but I do think Rielly could be doing a much better job. At the end of the day we are likely headed for another first round against Tampa Bay and every year that goes by is a year of our great core lost and we need every advantage we can get, regardless of them being a good defensive team our powerplay can be BETTER than what it is and that could very well be the difference between winning or losing the series. I think Keefe agrees or I don’t think he’d be so invested in testing the 5F set up.

 

[IPS]

Either way what’s your endgame argument here? That our powerplay is firing at full potential, Morgan Rielly couldn’t possibly be more effective, and dips in our powerplay efficiency are just random streaks of poor luck that coincidentally always seem to happen at the end of the season and going into the playoffs? Or that maybe Matthews Nylander Marner Tavares are maybe not as good at the powerplay as their even strength dominance would suggest? I’m honestly curious. I really think there’s no reason our PP shouldn’t be top 3 in the league every year with those guys.

That is precisely what he thinks. When all of his other reasoning flops that is always his fall-back argument. He can't even use the sample size BS with playoffs, it's 6 years of sample size of the Leafs PP falling of a cliff in the playoffs.

 

[MilkofthePoppy]

So you want him due to his religious beliefs, because his play is nothing special.

I want him because I think he would improve our team.

 

[Byron Bitz]

Didn’t one of the analysts say that the Leafs Big Heads don’t like point shots and shots from distance because they correlate to lower percentage scoring opportunities? They probably see a big shot from the point as an inefficiency.

Shots from the point are lower percentage but there are going to be games where the opposing defence and goaltending are locking everything down and the only way to score is with point shots with traffic in front.

 

[Jeffrey Pedler]

I want him because I think he would improve our team.

Have you seen his play? I wouldn't call him and upgrade over what we have. Maybe you just like him for his political beliefs?

 

[Cap'n Flavour]

Do it with the other teams and you'll see the trend becomes obvious. Other teams maintain their elite PP going into the playoffs. But the Leafs? Ours falls of a cliff.

Uh ok, so are other teams relying on a booming shot from the point? Because I don't think Boston's PP has been consistently good because of their defensemen.

 

[Oscar Peterson]

That is precisely what he thinks. When all of his other reasoning flops that is always his fall-back argument. He can't even use the sample size BS with playoffs, it's 6 years of sample size of the Leafs PP falling of a cliff in the playoffs.

I love looking at hockey statistics and think they are very important in the modern day game but my least favourite element of the stats community is the widespread belief that luck is the only factor driving the un-sustainability of any given metric.