A Bridge Too Far

[Ice Nine]

He's always been listed as 6'6" on most sites. A few have him at 6'5" but the majority 6'6"

Getting off topic. Back to the bridge. I think the Bruins need a bridge to the bridge.

Always thought he was listed at 6'4" as a Bruin

Bruins' site on NHL.com have him at 6'6:

http://bruins.nhl.com/club/player.htm?id=8476462

Also listed as 6'6 on:

Yahoo
https://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/players/5370/

Elite Prospects
http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=45596

Hockey reference
http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/h/hamildo01.html

 

[DKH]

Bruins' site on NHL.com have him at 6'6:

http://bruins.nhl.com/club/player.htm?id=8476462

Also listed as 6'6 on:

Yahoo
https://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/players/5370/

Elite Prospects
http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=45596

Hockey reference
http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/h/hamildo01.html

I been reading on these boards how ****ing great he is and I turn on WC and he's not playing

Colton Parayko is playing over him? He's a mid third round pick compared to Brandon Carlo and he's in that game

Trouba even over him

 

[Ice Nine]

Just a bit of analysis on Dougie's results last year, since many here seem willing to write him off, or bad mouth his performance.

(1.) Dougie was third in TOI with 1309:35 among Calgary's D, behind Giordano and Brodie (two D who are better than anyone we have at the moment). He finished ahead of his pairing partner Kris Russell who finished with 1157:45, as well as Wideman and Engelland. See: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...0&teamid=6&type=corsi&sort=DZPCT&sortdir=DESC

(2.) Dougie didn't play sheltered minutes. His OZFO%/DZFO%/NZFO%. splits of 32.3/32.7/35.0 were comparable to Calgary's best D, like TJ Brodie (31.2/33.3/35.5) and Giordano (30.1/34.2/35.7), with Giordano playing a few more DZ starts.

Interestingly, Kris Russel had more offensive zone starts than Dougie, though again, it was very close (32.5 OZFO%).

Jokipakka, a D who is older than Dougie at 25 years, but who hasn't yet played a full season, accrued 812:12 TOI during the year, and played heavily sheltered minutes, with the highest % of offensive zone starts and the lowest % of defensive zone starts: 35.2/30.7/34.1.

So, whatever you think about Dougie, the Flames didn't think he needed to be sheltered. He played splits comparable to their very best D.

(3.) Dougie's Corsi possession stats, among D who played at least 500 minutes, place him 4th out of 7 D, but at CF% 49.1, he was only a rounding error behind T.J. Brodie (49.6), Jokkipaka (49.3) and comparable to the D with the best CF%, Giordano (50.0 CF%). As noted above, Jokipakka played very sheltered minutes, so he arguably should be excluded.

(4.) By comparison, Kris Russel, who was Dougie's D partner (played the most TOI with), was awful, with a 45.3 CF%, putting him tied for 6th out of 7 D on the team.

(5.) Dougie's Fenwick possession stats (similar to Corsi but excludes blocked shots) were second best among Flames D who played at least 500 minutes.

His Fenwick For % (FF%) was 49.6, just below Flame's best advanced stat beast Giordano (49.7) and just above Brodie (49.3). He finished above Wideman, Engelland, Jokkipaka, and Russell (Russell would be 5th out of 7 D for FF% with 47.4).

(6.)For fun, I looked at similar stats for Adam Larsson (who we all know was traded for Taylor Hall) from last year in New Jersey

Hamilton's Corsi and Fenwick possession stats are both better than Larsson's-- CF% of 44.9 and FF% at 46.4).

The comparison, however, is a little unfair to Larsson, as he played the hardest minutes for New Jersey, logging a brutal 20.7/44.4/34.9 split.

But then, Dougie (12G, 43pts) also scored over twice as many points than Larsson (18 pts) and four times as many goals (3G for Larsson).

Put another way, then, Dougie had 12% more offensive zone starts than Larsson, and with that 12%, Dougie scored 140% more points and 400% more goals.

 

[Ice Nine]

I been reading on these boards how ****ing great he is and I turn on WC and he's not playing

Colton Parayko is playing over him? He's a mid third round pick compared to Brandon Carlo and he's in that game

Trouba even over him

I'd take Parayko and Trouba on the B's. *shrug*

Is Dougie good enough to play for Canada at WC? Probably not.

I don't think Dougie is all star caliber yet, my only point is people are ridiculous to write him off at this stage.

I also think his performance last season is not nearly as bad as people seem to suggest around here.

EDIT: PS: besides Hamilton, you do realize Giordano was also left off Canada's WC squad in favour of Jay Bouwmeester, right? And Giordano a legit #1 D, an impact player. So...

 

[TheBigBadB]

He is not a bruin and therefore sucks, right? Right now Calgary won that trade, but the Bruins he was traded for have potential. Hopefully it ends up being a great move.

 

[Oates2Neely]

I'd take Parayko and Trouba on the B's. *shrug*

Is Dougie good enough to play for Canada at WC? Probably not.

I don't think Dougie is all star caliber yet, my only point is people are ridiculous to write him off at this stage.

I also think his performance last season is not nearly as bad as people seem to suggest around here.

You must fit the narrative.

Dougie sucks.
Every move Sweeney has made is gold.
Bruins prospects are can't miss sure fire future all stars.

 

[Dr Quincy]

I been reading on these boards how ****ing great he is and I turn on WC and he's not playing

Colton Parayko is playing over him? He's a mid third round pick compared to Brandon Carlo and he's in that game

Trouba even over him

There wasn't room for him after Carlo, Lindegren and Lauzon were added.

 

[Ice Nine]

You must fit the narrative.

Dougie sucks.
Every move Sweeney has made is gold.
Bruins prospects are can't miss sure fire future all stars.

Whoops.

 

[GloryDaze4877]

ES he played more than Wideman (not sure about Russell, I can't seem to find his DAL/CGY splits, but I'll assume he did play more ES than Hamilton).

But the flaw in your analysis is that you are simply looking at TOI on 2 different teams in different years. Not all teams split up their D the same way. And usage changes a lot on different teams as far as special teams go (which is why looking at ES is better than just total TOI).

But a big flaw is not looking at the context. Brent Seabrook was 3rd in CHI in ES TOI. Dennis Seidenberg was 3rd in TOI on BOS. To call them both "#3 dmen" is completely inaccurate. Seabrook is a 2 not a 3, and Seidenberg is a replacement level player. So if Hamilton was a #4 2nd pair guy in ES TOI in CGY, that doesn't negate the fact that he would have been a #2 or #3 guy in Boston, which he was the year before, don't know why you left that out.

I'm not, and never have been a big Dougie fan. I see the same flaws you do, but he's a young #3 D that would have helped the B's a lot last year. In the end, maybe they are better off with what they got for him down the road, but right now I'd like to see you make the case that they would be worse with him.

Dave, you make some good points. In the Calgary games I watched after Brodie returned, Dougie was playing 3rd pair against weaker competition, which I'm sure had something to do do with him looking better as the season progressed. The reason he was playing 3rd pair is because Calgary has some good D-men (better than Boston) and they could afford to slide him down a bit. If he was still in Boston, he would have probably been on the first pair, playing more minutes against better competition. I suspect that he would not have looked very good defensively.

That being said, given the current state of the B's D, I'm not sure anyone can make the case that the B's would be worse with Hamiton right now. As unimpressed with him as I have been the last couple of seasons, I like Dougie a lot better in the Top 4 than Killer or McQuaid.

 

[4ORRBRUIN]

You must fit the narrative.

Dougie sucks.
Every move Sweeney has made is gold.
Bruins prospects are can't miss sure fire future all stars.

One out of three isn't that bad

 

[ODAAT]

Dave, you make some good points. In the Calgary games I watched after Brodie returned, Dougie was playing 3rd pair against weaker competition, which I'm sure had something to do do with him looking better as the season progressed. The reason he was playing 3rd pair is because Calgary has some good D-men (better than Boston) and they could afford to slide him down a bit. If he was still in Boston, he would have probably been on the first pair, playing more minutes against better competition. I suspect that he would not have looked very good defensively.

That being said, given the current state of the B's D, I'm not sure anyone can make the case that the B's would be worse with Hamiton right now. As unimpressed with him as I have been the last couple of seasons, I like Dougie a lot better in the Top 4 than Killer or McQuaid.

I do too (top 4 over Miller/Quaider). For a guy who moves as well as Dougie, has the size he has, I think I expected a bit more from him in his own zone. Didn`t expect him to be a bruiser, not really his game and he`s still young and learning but again for me, it all comes down to the drive and will of a player like him. Is/will he be a guy who winds up settling into a place where he`s more than content putting up points while not really working on improving in his own zone or will he be a guy who pushes himself over time to continue getting better?

Not sold yet the latter is in his DNA

 

[BNHL]

Bruins' site on NHL.com have him at 6'6:

http://bruins.nhl.com/club/player.htm?id=8476462

Also listed as 6'6 on:

Yahoo
https://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/players/5370/

Elite Prospects
http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=45596

Hockey reference
http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/h/hamildo01.html

I went back to his draft and he was listed at 6'4",as he was as a rookie,then 6'5" and now 6'6". They should have him talk to Willie Huber.

 

[BNHL]

Good post, and fair take on Sweeney. I think he's made some excellent moves, some very good moves, but some very weak/mediocre ones too. The Hamilton trade falls in the latter category.

We should have gotten a far better return for Dougie. The idea that Adam Larsson is so far superior to Hamilton, that his sale could command a high end talent and elite player like Taylor Hall, whilst Hamilton only a 1st and two low 2nds is laughable. Should have been patient, used the B's leverage (he was an RFA) and shopped him around.

And agree on Trouba too -- not at all been impressed by him; think we'd be better with him (of course, our D is quite bad at the moment) and given he easily has more question marks than Dougie, or just as many, find it funny how much people are willing to throw at Winnipeg for him (Pasta + 1st + Zboril + Kitchen Sink + Keys to the Buick + 2nd Mortgage), while people on here write off Hamilton at age 23.

Never had the privilege to watch Orr, was before my time but certainly heard enough of his exploits from the old man, but grew up watching Bourque. We probably won't see another Bourque in our time for the B's, and we shouldn't expect our young D to achieve that level. I'm not sure anyone in the game today will achieve that level either (maybe Ekblad, Weber/Keith might be there too).

Orr was so good that Bourque was a disappointment. We finally realized that the show was over when we saw Bourque. The greatest of them all had come and gone by the 70s and his torch carrier,though great,was human.

 

[GloryDaze4877]

But then, Dougie (12G, 43pts) also scored over twice as many points than Larsson (18 pts) and four times as many goals (3G for Larsson).

Put another way, then, Dougie had 12% more offensive zone starts than Larsson, and with that 12%, Dougie scored 140% more points and 400% more goals. [/QUOTE]

You keep referencing zone starts in your comparisons, but you are leaving out who Dougie was playing against for a good chunk of the year...third line players. So, Dougie had ONLY 12% more offensive zone starts and didn't need to be sheltered...against inferior competition.

I don't think there is a snowball's chance in hell that Chia would have traded Hall for Dougie.

 

[BNHL]

Just a bit of analysis on Dougie's results last year, since many here seem willing to write him off, or bad mouth his performance.

(1.) Dougie was third in TOI with 1309:35 among Calgary's D, behind Giordano and Brodie (two D who are better than anyone we have at the moment). He finished ahead of his pairing partner Kris Russell who finished with 1157:45, as well as Wideman and Engelland. See: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...0&teamid=6&type=corsi&sort=DZPCT&sortdir=DESC

(2.) Dougie didn't play sheltered minutes. His OZFO%/DZFO%/NZFO%. splits of 32.3/32.7/35.0 were comparable to Calgary's best D, like TJ Brodie (31.2/33.3/35.5) and Giordano (30.1/34.2/35.7), with Giordano playing a few more DZ starts.

Interestingly, Kris Russel had more offensive zone starts than Dougie, though again, it was very close (32.5 OZFO%).

Jokipakka, a D who is older than Dougie at 25 years, but who hasn't yet played a full season, accrued 812:12 TOI during the year, and played heavily sheltered minutes, with the highest % of offensive zone starts and the lowest % of defensive zone starts: 35.2/30.7/34.1.

So, whatever you think about Dougie, the Flames didn't think he needed to be sheltered. He played splits comparable to their very best D.

(3.) Dougie's Corsi possession stats, among D who played at least 500 minutes, place him 4th out of 7 D, but at CF% 49.1, he was only a rounding error behind T.J. Brodie (49.6), Jokkipaka (49.3) and comparable to the D with the best CF%, Giordano (50.0 CF%). As noted above, Jokipakka played very sheltered minutes, so he arguably should be excluded.

(4.) By comparison, Kris Russel, who was Dougie's D partner (played the most TOI with), was awful, with a 45.3 CF%, putting him tied for 6th out of 7 D on the team.

(5.) Dougie's Fenwick possession stats (similar to Corsi but excludes blocked shots) were second best among Flames D who played at least 500 minutes.

His Fenwick For % (FF%) was 49.6, just below Flame's best advanced stat beast Giordano (49.7) and just above Brodie (49.3). He finished above Wideman, Engelland, Jokkipaka, and Russell (Russell would be 5th out of 7 D for FF% with 47.4).

(6.)For fun, I looked at similar stats for Adam Larsson (who we all know was traded for Taylor Hall) from last year in New Jersey

Hamilton's Corsi and Fenwick possession stats are both better than Larsson's-- CF% of 44.9 and FF% at 46.4).

The comparison, however, is a little unfair to Larsson, as he played the hardest minutes for New Jersey, logging a brutal 20.7/44.4/34.9 split.

But then, Dougie (12G, 43pts) also scored over twice as many points than Larsson (18 pts) and four times as many goals (3G for Larsson).

Put another way, then, Dougie had 12% more offensive zone starts than Larsson, and with that 12%, Dougie scored 140% more points and 400% more goals.

I can't even begin to decipher all those numbers but I did look at his QualComp which is a very distant third among Calgary defensemen. Looks look he lines up against a mix of 2nd and third lines.

 

[Ice Nine]

I went back to his draft and he was listed at 6'4",as he was as a rookie,then 6'5" and now 6'6". They should have him talk to Willie Huber.

Actually, Huber is a nice comparison!

 

[Ice Nine]

Orr was so good that Bourque was a disappointment. We finally realized that the show was over when we saw Bourque. The greatest of them all had come and gone by the 70s and his torch carrier,though great,was human.

This is pretty much how my father also describes Orr -- he says the best player who ever lived (better than Gretzky, Lemieux, Howe, etc). Thanks to Youtube and things like Cherry's Rock 'em Sock 'Em Hockey (yes, I know, very 1990s) I've been able to see him in action. But of course, that's not the same thing.

 

[Ice Nine]

You keep referencing zone starts in your comparisons, but you are leaving out who Dougie was playing against for a good chunk of the year...third line players. So, Dougie had ONLY 12% more offensive zone starts and didn't need to be sheltered...against inferior competition.

I don't think there is a snowball's chance in hell that Chia would have traded Hall for Dougie.

Fair point on Dougie's match ups; I don't have stats on that. But whoever he was playing against, he performed decently, and far better than his veteran D partner Kris Russell (who had been tossed around as a name for the B's to sign this off season).

I think Chiarelli valued Dougie highly, hence offer sheet threat-- which is usually a no-no among GMs-- he used to try to pry him loose. Assuming he would actually trade with us, and assuming we still had Hamilton, and assuming similar market conditions, would he have offered Hall? Hard to say. It's a tough counterfactual for either of us to argue conclusively.

I can't even begin to decipher all those numbers but I did look at his QualComp which is a very distant third among Calgary defensemen. Looks look he lines up against a mix of 2nd and third lines.

I think that QualComp result makes a lot of sense --I think TJ Brodie and Giordano are among the top 10 best D in the entire league (and their advanced stats back that up). Dougie is far from their level at this stage, so no surprise he's a distant third. But then, that's not bad either, for a 23 year old to perform (on this metric) better than experienced veteran D like Wideman, Engelland, and Russell.

 

[SPV]

I like the positive vibe of the start of this thread; it's turned into something different as it always does here though.

I would like to see the Bruins go all in on Trouba, as I think it speeds up the retooling process of our defense. Start with a Krug-Trouba combo up front, and hope that some of those prospects can push into your bottom four as soon as this year. It also gives you at least one sure thing.

I understand we were in the race last year, but I wish we did things differently at the deadline still. But otherwise, I like the direction that we are headed. The cupboards are pretty full, and if we hit on about 50% of our first & second round prospects, we should be in pretty good shape.

 

[DKH]

You must fit the narrative.

Dougie sucks.
Every move Sweeney has made is gold.
Bruins prospects are can't miss sure fire future all stars.

When did you do a 180

I thought it was Dougie is awesome and Sweeney sucks and can't draft

 

[BNHL]

Actually, Huber is a nice comparison!

He took hell in NY for not being physical enough.

 

[DKH]

I'd take Parayko and Trouba on the B's. *shrug*

Is Dougie good enough to play for Canada at WC? Probably not.

I don't think Dougie is all star caliber yet, my only point is people are ridiculous to write him off at this stage.

I also think his performance last season is not nearly as bad as people seem to suggest around here.

EDIT: PS: besides Hamilton, you do realize Giordano was also left off Canada's WC squad in favour of Jay Bouwmeester, right? And Giordano a legit #1 D, an impact player. So...

I am not talking about Canada.

Dougie is 23 younger than Saad. I was wondering why he wasn't good enough to play for North America.

I'm going to bask like a shark when the first of Lauzon, JFK, Senyshyn is universally better than Dougie

As Kirk posted 'don't expect people to own up' which is to bad but not uncommon

 

[BNHL]

Fair point on Dougie's match ups; I don't have stats on that. But whoever he was playing against, he performed decently, and far better than his veteran D partner Kris Russell (who had been tossed around as a name for the B's to sign this off season).

I think Chiarelli valued Dougie highly, hence offer sheet threat-- which is usually a no-no among GMs-- he used to try to pry him loose. Assuming he would actually trade with us, and assuming we still had Hamilton, and assuming similar market conditions, would he have offered Hall? Hard to say. It's a tough counterfactual for either of us to argue conclusively.



I think that QualComp result makes a lot of sense --I think TJ Brodie and Giordano are among the top 10 best D in the entire league (and their advanced stats back that up). Dougie is far from their level at this stage, so no surprise he's a distant third. But then, that's not bad either, for a 23 year old to perform (on this metric) better than experienced veteran D like Wideman, Engelland, and Russell.

I don't think anyone can say that Dougie doesn't have great talent,but I think he makes some mind boggling blunders and is in no way physical enough. It also appears he was less then happy here and somewhat of a loner,don't know if that affects the locker room at all for a third defenseman.

 

[Ice Nine]

I am not talking about Canada.

Dougie is 23 younger than Saad. I was wondering why he wasn't good enough to play for North America.

I'm going to bask like a shark when the first of Lauzon, JFK, Senyshyn is universally better than Dougie

As Kirk posted 'don't expect people to own up' which is to bad but not uncommon

I'm happy to "own up" to any claim I make.

Unless you're talking about someone else, I've never made the claim Hamilton is, or would be, "universally better" than Lauzon, JFK, Senyshyn (not sure exactly what "universally" means in this context; better for the Bruins seems more important than universally so).

I do make the claim Hamilton has potential to improve to being a top pairing D and that people writing him off now at age 23 are being ridiculous. I also make the claim the return on the trade could have and should have been better.

But since we don't know what that alternative return might have been, nor the players that could have been had in an alternative trade deal, it's hard for you, or I, to argue this conclusively either (compare Hamilton picks to Phantom Player X in Hypothetical Return / Draft Pics). But I think it's still reasonable to argue Sweeney could have been more patient and shopped him. He didn't.

I obviously do hope Lauzon, JFK, and Senyshyn all turn out to be better (for the Bruins) than Hamilton because, well, they're Bruins.

 

[Oates2Neely]

When did you do a 180

I thought it was Dougie is awesome and Sweeney sucks and can't draft

I have no beef with Sweeney. No GM will bat 1000. He's gone out and added tons of youth. Like you, I hope they pan out. But I do think most recent transactions show that Sweeney took less than he should have in exchange for Dougie (who while I was never a big fan, is young and has potential to improve significantly).

Sweeney has drafted well. Skilled character guys. And he hasn't been afraid to skip over consensus top players to choose his guys.

Imo it's ok to criticize Sweeney for a botched move or two, while still being content with his overall performance. I'm a fan of Sweeney, just not a fan of his Hamilton return.

Back on subject, will Sweeney make a move to acquire a top-4 veteran to help the current roster compete now?

Bouwmeester
Burns
Bogosian
Girardi