Prospect Info: #70 - Carter Mazur (LW)

[Hen Kolland]

Do we know the success rate, albeit by some arbitrary metric, of middle round picks having an impact in the NHL?

Like what's the expectation here for a third round pick? And not the "Adam Fox was a 3rd Rd Pick! Rarar robble! Robble!" - that was 1 guy like 5 years ago, out of what...150 picks?

What is a realistic expectation here for 3rd Rd picks?

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

Whenever an NHL draft is approaching, the excitement level and hype around the players go through the roof. It’s an exciting time for sure but it seems like most people don’t have realistic expectations when it comes to the draft. To help with that, I decided to

dobberprospects.com

 

[waltdetroit]

Do we know the success rate, albeit by some arbitrary metric, of middle round picks having an impact in the NHL?

Like what's the expectation here for a third round pick? And not the "Adam Fox was a 3rd Rd Pick! Rarar robble! Robble!" - that was 1 guy like 5 years ago, out of what...150 picks?

What is a realistic expectation here for 3rd Rd picks?

Here's a graph from Dobber's

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

Whenever an NHL draft is approaching, the excitement level and hype around the players go through the roof. It’s an exciting time for sure but it seems like most people don’t have realistic expectations when it comes to the draft. To help with that, I decided to

dobberprospects.com

oops already here

 

[jkutswings]

Weird logic. I guess that means that Cossa and Evidsson are wasted picks until proven otherwise.

Seider has only had one good year. Total fluke and a wasted pick until proven otherwise.

 

[SCD]

Seider has only had one good year. Total fluke and a wasted pick until proven otherwise.

Actually, Seider has not had any bad years. He has only had one with the Wings.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Here's a graph from Dobber's
View attachment 564797

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

Whenever an NHL draft is approaching, the excitement level and hype around the players go through the roof. It’s an exciting time for sure but it seems like most people don’t have realistic expectations when it comes to the draft. To help with that, I decided to

dobberprospects.com

oops already here

Per the uptick, guessing that 36-47 sweet spot offers value b/c they're the players probably slightly less scouted than the late1st rd. leftovers (picks 30-36).

28% vs. 43%

 

[Shaman464]

Weird logic. I guess that means that Cossa and Evidsson are wasted picks until proven otherwise.

Pedigree and playing against pros means a lot for proving one’s metal.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Per the uptick, guessing that 36-47 sweet spot offers value b/c they're the players probably slightly less scouted than the late1st rd. leftovers (picks 30-36).

28% vs. 43%

View attachment 564811

Could also be the safe picks that are seen as having lower potential but a safer floor make it to that range.

 

[jaster]

People just can't get over the fact that Mazur is actually really good... Just take your L and move on lol

This doubling and tripling down on him being a wasted pick, at this stage of his development, is just really embarrassing to watch lol.

 

[JohanFranzenstein]

What's the harm in hoping for the best? Kid is 18 years old, who knows what the future has in store? Must be exhausting being so negative all the time.

 

[waltdetroit]

Per the uptick, guessing that 36-47 sweet spot offers value b/c they're the players probably slightly less scouted than the late1st rd. leftovers (picks 30-36).

28% vs. 43%

View attachment 564811

This has nothing to do with DRW, but your user name. This is a unique a Cappella group from South Korea. (How do they move their tongues so fast)

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

This has nothing to do with DRW, but your user name. This is a unique a Cappella group from South Korea. (How do they move their tongues so fast)

watched this 2x, so worth it. talented, yet at times hilarious. the kinda content I like to see, great job @waltdetroit. the rooster (middle dude) @ :41-:51

Imagine knowing 1 of those ladies & they outta nowhere start doing their bit hahaha!

 

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

It may not be great, but there is still a lot of talent on the board, Simon Robertsson for example was a consensus 1st rounder who had a poor showing at the U18. It'll be interesting to see how the two develop because Robertsson went with the very next pick after Mazur.

I'd have been okay with a skilled NA skater too like a Connor Roullete or Ayrton Martino. Or if you did want to go for someone in the high compete model a Cole Huckins or Dylan Duke would've been good options. And then there were dmen like Brent Johnson, Anton Olsson, or Tyson Hinds available too.

Personally, I'm mostly "upset" with the Wings leaving value on the board when they reach for someone like Mazur this year or Hanas last year.

While I wasn't super critical of Mazur, I was of the process, so I'll eat crow on this one. Mazur was phenomenal last year and I really hope he keeps it up. I think he's shown that he is a legitimate prospect with real middle 6 upside.

I do think next season will be telling as Denver has lost Savoie, Brink, & I believe Guttman. He'll need to become a go to piece for the team going forward.

I do still have issues with the methodology the Wings seem to employ at times, but again, I'm happy with how this pick has turned out.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I can't speak for the SHL, but the top US players are going to head for the top colleges, which include Denver, Minn St, and Michigan. Boston has fallen off a bit.

BTW, plenty of 1 PPG college hockey players have failed to make a career in the NHL, While his stats are encouraging, it doesn't guarantee anything yet. (Obviously it;s better to have good stats than bad.)

It's not how many points he had, but how he scored them. There's a bit of Zach Hyman in his game, my dude. Mazur has zero quit. And before the WJC20's were shut down people spoke highly of him making the US team. I think that Mazur ends up one of those fan favorite players for his blue collar work ethic and willingness to get into the tough areas of the ice.

 

[waltdetroit]

watched this 2x, so worth it. talented, yet at times hilarious. the kinda content I like to see, great job @waltdetroit. the rooster (middle dude) @ :41-:51

Imagine knowing 1 of those ladies & they outta nowhere start doing their bit hahaha!

They do all kinds of fun stuff, theme from the Simpsons, video game noises like angry birds, plus some pop songs

https://www.youtube.com/c/MayTreeofficial/videos

 

[newfy]

All the posters on this board who I trust to watch NCAA hockey on a semi-regular basis are at least cautiously optimistic about Mazur's season. It's a long, tough road to the NHL but I don't think anyone who was watching Denver's title run could call Carter Mazur a passenger on that team.

A good chunk of the board's disdain for NCAA hockey is strange to me considering its developmental track record.

Exactly. I dont want to sit here and say he was an absolute steal and amazing pick because theres obviously a very good chance he never plays. But theres plenty of people who called it a wasted pick who look like absolute morons, and theyre still doubling down on it. He was third rounder, not a top 5 pick lol

 

[RabidBadger]

It's not how many points he had, but how he scored them. There's a bit of Zach Hyman in his game, my dude. Mazur has zero quit. And before the WJC20's were shut down people spoke highly of him making the US team. I think that Mazur ends up one of those fan favorite players for his blue collar work ethic and willingness to get into the tough areas of the ice.

Yeah, I never watched him play until the WJC showcase and he won me over immediately. He stood out in all the right ways. He reminded me of Nick Robertson with even more attitude.

Mazur became my favorite prospect in a hurry. He's going to be a real bee-yatch when his frame fills out.

 

[RabidBadger]

Buium just had a better year than Chayka. Poised to have a really nice season next year. Don't know why people don't like him more on our board. He had a better +1 season than Wallinder did.

Because there is a sizeable contingent of people still whining about not drafting Raty with that pick. I mean, I wanted Scott Morrow but I got over it in a couple weeks.

 

[ricky0034]

What's the harm in hoping for the best? Kid is 18 years old, who knows what the future has in store? Must be exhausting being so negative all the time.

he's 20

 

[JohanFranzenstein]

he's 20

This changes everything. I now agree with the angry folks.

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

Kris Draper should get fired.

Or all that joke NA drafting department.

What a joke of pick.

Almost 1,5 year overager.

Local kid to hype Little Caesars hockey program or something.

38 points in 41 games and a national championship.

This post didn't age real well.

Further, looking at the way a prospect like Logan O'Connor developed at Denver maybe this was a calculated risk.

 

[MBH]

Exactly. I dont want to sit here and say he was an absolute steal and amazing pick because theres obviously a very good chance he never plays. But theres plenty of people who called it a wasted pick who look like absolute morons, and theyre still doubling down on it. He was third rounder, not a top 5 pick lol

Calling people morons is over the top.
Mazur was a D+1er playing on a supercharged Denver team.
He's a long way from proving anyone was a moron for wanting to pick more talent.

 

[newfy]

Calling people morons is over the top.
Mazur was a D+1er playing on a supercharged Denver team.
He's a long way from proving anyone was a moron for wanting to pick more talent.

Hes well past making anyone who said he shouldnt have been drafted look like a moron. If you were one of them, that sucks but eat your crow.

 

[MBH]

38 points in 41 games and a national championship.

This post didn't age real well.

Further, looking at the way a prospect like Logan O'Connor developed at Denver maybe this was a calculated risk.

Jesus christ.
Tied for 5th on his team in scoring.
Brink, F, age 20 - 14-43-57 - 34th overall 2019
Savoie, F, 19 - 23-22-45 - 100th overall in 2019
Guttman, F, 22 - 19-26-45 - 180th overall in 2020
Stapley, F, 22 - 18-25-43 - 190th overall in 2018
Benning, D, 19 - 15-23-38 - 95th overall in 2020
Mazur, F, 19 - 14-24-38 - 70th overall in 2021
Rizzo, F, 20 - 12-24-36 - 216th overall in 2019
Wright, F, 23 - 23-11-34 - Undrafted
Behrens, D, 18 - 3-26-29 - 61st overall in 2021

So I guess all these guys are steals too.

Hes well past making anyone who said he shouldnt have been drafted look like a moron. If you were one of them, that sucks but eat your crow.

Not an NHLer.
Why would I eat crow over someone who does not look like an NHLer.
Simon Robertson at 71 looks like an NHLer, for example.

 

[jaster]

Jesus christ.
Tied for 5th on his team in scoring.
Brink, F, age 20 - 14-43-57 - 34th overall 2019
Savoie, F, 19 - 23-22-45 - 100th overall in 2019
Guttman, F, 22 - 19-26-45 - 180th overall in 2020
Stapley, F, 22 - 18-25-43 - 190th overall in 2018
Benning, D, 19 - 15-23-38 - 95th overall in 2020
Mazur, F, 19 - 14-24-38 - 70th overall in 2021
Rizzo, F, 20 - 12-24-36 - 216th overall in 2019
Wright, F, 23 - 23-11-34 - Undrafted
Behrens, D, 18 - 3-26-29 - 61st overall in 2021

So I guess all these guys are steals too.

MBH and ignoring context.

Name a more iconic duo.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Jesus christ.
Tied for 5th on his team in scoring.
Brink, F, age 20 - 14-43-57 - 34th overall 2019
Savoie, F, 19 - 23-22-45 - 100th overall in 2019
Guttman, F, 22 - 19-26-45 - 180th overall in 2020
Stapley, F, 22 - 18-25-43 - 190th overall in 2018
Benning, D, 19 - 15-23-38 - 95th overall in 2020
Mazur, F, 19 - 14-24-38 - 70th overall in 2021
Rizzo, F, 20 - 12-24-36 - 216th overall in 2019
Wright, F, 23 - 23-11-34 - Undrafted
Behrens, D, 18 - 3-26-29 - 61st overall in 2021

So I guess all these guys are steals too.


Not an NHLer.
Why would I eat crow over someone who does not look like an NHLer.
Simon Robertson at 71 looks like an NHLer, for example.

I mean, a few of these guys look realgud.

Brink and Savoie for instance. Behrens is pretty decent too.

Also I was originally on the Simon Robertsson train in the 3rd when he fell but he hasn't been that good, my dude.

Mazur looks like a really good player. I recommend watching some Denver games.