Prospect Info: 5th Overall Pick 2020: Who Do The Sens Draft

[DueDiligence]

After drafting Stutzle/Byfield RD is absolutely the biggest need. They dont have anyone that projects as a number 1 RD in the organization. The forward group is actually deep.

For sure take Drysdale at 5. Then the Sens can then pick two strong forward prospects with the Islanders pick and at 33. Heck with 3 additional picks in the second round they have the draft collateral to move up higher in the first with the Islanders pick.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

I honestly probably wouldn’t mind if we ended up going with Sanderson here. We’re badly missing someone like him in the org. Put Brannstrom on RD where he belongs.

 

[DrSense]

Ive watched a bunch of games he isnt close to Drysdale at transitioning the puck. They arent playing in the same leagues in the same situations against the same competition. Its nice to have this data but as soon as you compare these players game in game out visually Drysdale is on different level from a dynamic perspective. Can Sanderson play his wrong side and transition seamlessly to it? I didnt see it in the games I watched. He is a defensive stud, no doubt but he doesnt have franchis player potential.


It makes absolutely no sense but I think speaks more to the fact most posters havent actually watched the games. The arguments you get on here are all based on strange statistics and perceived team need. Completely ignoring that what Drysdale did this year as a 17 year old on Canada never happens. Or acknowledgeding he is ahead of both Hughes and Makar at the same age. He is a high character leader who produced at a ppg rate playing in all situations on a brutal OHL team. Sometimes you just watch the player and realize he is better than everyone else. BPA and if he is there at 5 thats a no doubter.

I do get surprised when people get so outraged about disagreement on players. On a message board, no less.

Many people who have watched Sanderson and Drysdale a ton like Sanderson better than Drysdale. It wouldn't surprise me if the Sens did too, especially if their US college scout likes him more. He has huge influence over our draft, and the fact the UNTP coach said Sanderson might be the best defensive prospect EVER for the program, makes you pause when you see those types of accolades. You also have a number of very experienced hockey people who think Sanderson is actually the superior skater overall, and that his transition and zone entry is better than Drysdale. I can see experienced hockey people arguing the other side of that one too - I love watching Drysdale skate myself - but there is merit in at least considering Sanderson ahead of him.

And keep in mind when Sanderson is playing against NCAA competition, he's play a much tougher level of hockey than the OHL, especially give how high scoring the OHL was this year. Less than a PPG pace when the league scoring was much higher actually - these are not exactly mind blowing impact. And seeing smaller softer offensive d-men like Ryan Murphy (who was better offensively than Drysdale, but not as good defensively) struggle to be an NHL player makes you recognize there is risk with a guy like Drysdale too. Sanderson's risk is he likely becomes a player like Noah Hanifin.

To be clear, I've watched both play many times, and I love both D and I'm on board with either at #5 if the Sens scouts feel they are BPA there. I'd probably prefer one of the forwards personally, but I'm down with another D building block. I just thinking anyone acting like it's outrageous to consider Sanderson is basically only reading and listening to things they want to hear, versus the growing narrative around both players. It's not an easy decision picking between them.

 

[bert]

So did the two scouts in McKenzie's poll that had Sanderson 3rd also not watch games, or the guys at hockey prospects? I get that you are high on Drysdale (as most of us are) but while almost everyone has Drysdale ahead of Sanderson too, just because somebody sees something differently than you doesn't mean they haven't watched the player or rely solely on strange statistics.

Sure they have him ahead but its not because Sanderson is better at breaking out the puck.

 

[Micklebot]

I honestly probably wouldn’t mind if we ended up going with Sanderson here. We’re badly missing someone like him in the org. Put Brannstrom on RD where he belongs.

I'd take Drysdale myself but wouldn't be at all upset if we went that route. I also think Raymond, Perfetti and Rossi could all be good picks, there isn't a lot seperating 4 from 8 imo, so I'm good with whatever direction our scouts go at 5 so long as we get one on Byfield or Stutzle at 3rd.

 

[Larionov]

I'm going against the grain slightly here and advocating for Perfetti. That kid reminds me a bit of Duchene - absolutely elite speed and skills with the puck. It's also worth noting that when they measured who scored against whom in the OHL, they found that Rossi piled up an inordinate amount of his points against bottom feeders. Perfetti, on the other hand, was more balanced in terms of his scoring against good teams and bad ones. Does that stat mean anything? I guess you'd have to go back and compare past OHL players to see if that stat holds up at all in the NHL, but it confirmed my instinct that Rossi may be a guy with a lower offensive ceiling in the NHL. I think Rossi is going to be a great two way centre for many years, but if you are looking for offensive production at the pro level, I'm going Perfetti. I'm convinced that whoever gets Perfetti is getting an absolute gem...

 

[BondraTime]

I'm going against the grain slightly here and advocating for Perfetti. That kid reminds me a bit of Duchene - absolutely elite speed and skills with the puck. It's also worth noting that when they measured who scored against whom in the OHL, they found that Rossi piled up an inordinate amount of his points against bottom feeders. Perfetti, on the other hand, was more balanced in terms of his scoring against good teams and bad ones. Does that stat mean anything? I guess you'd have to go back and compare past OHL players to see if that stat holds up at all in the NHL, but it confirmed my instinct that Rossi may be a guy with a lower offensive ceiling in the NHL. I think Rossi is going to be a great two way centre for many years, but if you are looking for offensive production at the pro level, I'm going Perfetti. I'm convinced that whoever gets Perfetti is getting an absolute gem...

Perfetti is my guy at #4, but he isn’t a very good skater and definitely doesn’t have elite speed.

 

[dumbdick]

For sure take Drysdale at 5. Then the Sens can then pick two strong forward prospects with the Islanders pick and at 33. Heck with 3 additional picks in the second round they have the draft collateral to move up higher in the first with the Islanders pick.

There are frequently good players available at 33. View media item 7677

 

[DueDiligence]

There are frequently good players available at 33. View media item 7677

Exactly and this year more than ever.

 

[bert]

I do get surprised when people get so outraged about disagreement on players. On a message board, no less.

Many people who have watched Sanderson and Drysdale a ton like Sanderson better than Drysdale. It wouldn't surprise me if the Sens did too, especially if their US college scout likes him more. He has huge influence over our draft, and the fact the UNTP coach said Sanderson might be the best defensive prospect EVER for the program, makes you pause when you see those types of accolades. You also have a number of very experienced hockey people who think Sanderson is actually the superior skater overall, and that his transition and zone entry is better than Drysdale. I can see experienced hockey people arguing the other side of that one too - I love watching Drysdale skate myself - but there is merit in at least considering Sanderson ahead of him.

And keep in mind when Sanderson is playing against NCAA competition, he's play a much tougher level of hockey than the OHL, especially give how high scoring the OHL was this year. Less than a PPG pace when the league scoring was much higher actually - these are not exactly mind blowing impact. And seeing smaller softer offensive d-men like Ryan Murphy (who was better offensively than Drysdale, but not as good defensively) struggle to be an NHL player makes you recognize there is risk with a guy like Drysdale too. Sanderson's risk is he likely becomes a player like Noah Hanifin.

To be clear, I've watched both play many times, and I love both D and I'm on board with either at #5 if the Sens scouts feel they are BPA there. I'd probably prefer one of the forwards personally, but I'm down with another D building block. I just thinking anyone acting like it's outrageous to consider Sanderson is basically only reading and listening to things they want to hear, versus the growing narrative around both players. It's not an easy decision picking between them.

Sanderson also plays against the USHL which is worse competition than the OHL. I dont see that as being a valid argument, he also doesnt have to pay 3 in 3's like Drysdale does logging massive minutes. Drysdale is underrated in what he has accomplished and shown up to this point, atleast on the sens board. What he did at the WJC just hasnt happened before. He came in for Byram on his wrong side and was the superior player and looked like Canada's best defenceman. As the games went along he logged more and more minutes. Tourigny had higher praise for him than any player on the team. Id say he knows what he is talking about.

Its a pretty big disservice to Drysdale to compare Ryan Murphy to him they arent in the same spectrum as prospects. Drysdale is a terrific defender and minute eater.

Drysdale scored a PPG on a terrible team while playing responsible defensively and you are holding that against him? He is playing for the 67's and he is likely scoring 70+ points. Then what? He is the consensus number 2 prospect maybe pushing for number 1.

I'm going against the grain slightly here and advocating for Perfetti. That kid reminds me a bit of Duchene - absolutely elite speed and skills with the puck. It's also worth noting that when they measured who scored against whom in the OHL, they found that Rossi piled up an inordinate amount of his points against bottom feeders. Perfetti, on the other hand, was more balanced in terms of his scoring against good teams and bad ones. Does that stat mean anything? I guess you'd have to go back and compare past OHL players to see if that stat holds up at all in the NHL, but it confirmed my instinct that Rossi may be a guy with a lower offensive ceiling in the NHL. I think Rossi is going to be a great two way centre for many years, but if you are looking for offensive production at the pro level, I'm going Perfetti. I'm convinced that whoever gets Perfetti is getting an absolute gem...

I dont really think its a question that Perfetti is the better offensive player than Rossi. Its the entire package that is keeping them in the same conversation. I'll agree with you, id take Perfetti over Rossi and really wouldnt think twice about it.

 

[dumbdick]

Exactly and this year more than ever.

Whoops. I forgot to add this one too. Odds of getting a player are high at 33. Odds of getting a top player are very low. So depends on what you want.

Impact Player Probability
View media item 7715
Player Probability
View media item 7677
Using these, if you're trading 21 + 33 for 15.

Moving from 21 to 15:
100GP Probability: 75% (+7%)
Impact Player Probability: 40% (+13%)

The cost of doing so is giving up 33rd Overall: a pick with about a 45% chance of cracking 100GP and an 8% chance of becoming an impact player.

Big caution as these are based on averaged historical data. This is a unique draft year, so don't put that much faith in all of this holding up. Really depends on where the drop-offs are. In good years, 33 is way more likely of yielding an impact player.

 

[GCK]

I'd take Drysdale myself but wouldn't be at all upset if we went that route. I also think Raymond, Perfetti and Rossi could all be good picks, there isn't a lot seperating 4 from 8 imo, so I'm good with whatever direction our scouts go at 5 so long as we get one on Byfield or Stutzle at 3rd.

If NJ winds up with 7 and 10 I would be checking in to see if they would move them for for 5 + NYI.
Or take Drysdale if he’s available.

 

[JD1]

Well, with so many quality prospects available and a lot of guys saying any of these 5 guys is fine with me kind of thing, at least we won't crash the site with an outrage of taking tkachuk over zadina scenario.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

8/10 scouts had Drysdale 4th (80%). 20% of the teams or so will have someone else they like better there. If Drysdale is there at 5 I think the Sens will take him. I am not pounding the table for him but he definitely deserves that level of ranking. I think the next 3 players just after him on Bob's list there are close e.g. Perfetti, Rossi, Raymond. Sanderson is in the mix as well. If 5'9 Brannstrom, a D man no less, provided Dorion with his proudest day...as a return for his best player at the time, would he pass on forwards Rossi, Perfetti, Raymond due to size concerns? I think they go with one of the top 2 D on the board but I am hoping they swing the bat on one of those forwards. There is no wrong ranking of these players ... its about what you see, what you like and what you project... Some scouts are going to have Askarov in the top 10, others will have Holtz in the top 5... there are no wrong answers in rankings. Opinions get really strong , to the point of insulting but .. the my dog is better than your dog cuz for us non scouting professionals is just dumb.

 

[bert]

Well, with so many quality prospects available and a lot of guys saying any of these 5 guys is fine with me kind of thing, at least we won't crash the site with an outrage of taking tkachuk over zadina scenario.

Yes far more high end depth this year however if the sens take Quinn at 5 this board may explode.

8/10 scouts had Drysdale 4th (80%). 20% of the teams or so will have someone else they like better there. If Drysdale is there at 5 I think the Sens will take him. I am not pounding the table for him but he definitely deserves that level of ranking. I think the next 3 players just after him on Bob's list there are close e.g. Perfetti, Rossi, Raymond. Sanderson is in the mix as well. If 5'9 Brannstrom, a D man no less, provided Dorion with his proudest day...as a return for his best player at the time, would he pass on forwards Rossi, Perfetti, Raymond due to size concerns? I think they go with one of the top 2 D on the board but I am hoping they swing the bat on one of those forwards. There is no wrong ranking of these players ... its about what you see, what you like and what you project... Some scouts are going to have Askarov in the top 10, others will have Holtz in the top 5... there are no wrong answers in rankings. Opinions get really strong , to the point of insulting but .. the my dog is better than your dog cuz for us non scouting professionals is just dumb.

Good post, I think its interesting though they seem more prone to picking size up front than on D. Maybe thats the style team they want to build? I am not sure, or they feel like they can get a skilled winger easier than a power style winger or maybe they feel truly skilled puck movers are more rare than physical D men. I am not sure.

Personally I am hoping they go 2 forwards and 1 d man in the first round. The order really depends on who is available at 5. If Drysdale is there they gotta take him in my opinion. If not id like them to target two forwards and a D man with the Islanders pick as long as BPA is followed for the most part.

I know you dont like Schneider and mentioned his skating being an issue but I dont really believe that to be true. Doesnt have huge upside but I think he is likely a lock as a crease clearing, strong first pass support partner for a left handed PMD. The sens do truly lack a strong physical presence on the back end and he is pretty much a guarantee. I think he could be a great d partner for Brannstrom or Wolanin. He goes D to D well and is really strong in his own zone.

Personally if they end up with Byfield and Drysdale is gone id target Raymond with 5th. I like the idea of having a dynamic play maker and a power style forward.

If they end up with Stutzle and Drysdale isnt there id go with Quinn at the 5 spot. He has alot of Mark Stone in him, great work rate fantastic at stripping pucks can set it up or score.

In the scenario they dont get Drysdale and go with two forwards id probalby target Guhle or Schneider.

If the Islanders pick is in the 15 range id probably try and trade up into the top 10/11 for whoever slips whether its Holtz, Quinn, Sanderson, Rossi etc.

With the draft capital the sens have they have so many options and in such a great draft its really exciting.

 

[DJB]

Just as an fyi...

Byfield and Drysdale have the same agent in Jeff Jackson.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Well, with so many quality prospects available and a lot of guys saying any of these 5 guys is fine with me kind of thing, at least we won't crash the site with an outrage of taking tkachuk over zadina scenario.

Site crashed after the lottery. It will crash on draft day

 

[MatchesMalone]

So did the two scouts in McKenzie's poll that had Sanderson 3rd also not watch games, or the guys at hockey prospects? I get that you are high on Drysdale (as most of us are) but while almost everyone has Drysdale ahead of Sanderson too, just because somebody sees something differently than you doesn't mean they haven't watched the player or rely solely on strange statistics.

Dude. Have you ever read Bert's posts before? Anyone with slightly different opinions from him in any way is a complete f***ing moron.

 

[Icelevel]

Just as an fyi...

Byfield and Drysdale have the same agent in Jeff Jackson.

The kind of thing you wouldn't be surprised to hear from dorion after drafting two top players. (ie. unreasonably influenced by that sort of thing.)
Mann seems to have things totally under control now. Nice feeling confident they'll make the right choices.

 

[Icelevel]

Yes far more high end depth this year however if the sens take Quinn at 5 this board may explode.

If they take him at 5 that could mean we got a 40g, 80+ pts forward. #TrustInMann

 

[bert]

Dude. Have you ever read Bert's posts before? Anyone with slightly different opinions from him in any way is a complete f***ing moron.

Wow, you sure are an angry guy. Not living up to your handle either.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Yes far more high end depth this year however if the sens take Quinn at 5 this board may explode.


Good post, I think its interesting though they seem more prone to picking size up front than on D. Maybe thats the style team they want to build? I am not sure, or they feel like they can get a skilled winger easier than a power style winger or maybe they feel truly skilled puck movers are more rare than physical D men. I am not sure.

Personally I am hoping they go 2 forwards and 1 d man in the first round. The order really depends on who is available at 5. If Drysdale is there they gotta take him in my opinion. If not id like them to target two forwards and a D man with the Islanders pick as long as BPA is followed for the most part.

I know you dont like Schneider and mentioned his skating being an issue but I dont really believe that to be true. Doesnt have huge upside but I think he is likely a lock as a crease clearing, strong first pass support partner for a left handed PMD. The sens do truly lack a strong physical presence on the back end and he is pretty much a guarantee. I think he could be a great d partner for Brannstrom or Wolanin. He goes D to D well and is really strong in his own zone.

Personally if they end up with Byfield and Drysdale is gone id target Raymond with 5th. I like the idea of having a dynamic play maker and a power style forward.

If they end up with Stutzle and Drysdale isnt there id go with Quinn at the 5 spot. He has alot of Mark Stone in him, great work rate fantastic at stripping pucks can set it up or score.

In the scenario they dont get Drysdale and go with two forwards id probalby target Guhle or Schneider.

If the Islanders pick is in the 15 range id probably try and trade up into the top 10/11 for whoever slips whether its Holtz, Quinn, Sanderson, Rossi etc.

With the draft capital the sens have they have so many options and in such a great draft its really exciting.

I don't like Schneider before 20 something in the 1st. I probably would not pick him in the 1st just because I think what you see is very close to what you get and that will be a bottom 6 pair imo...His straight line skating is fine; his defensive positioning is good. So I would take him as a position of need after the 1st... but I think there are other options that work in that scenario , with more risk but more upside as well. As a strictly defensive physical D man that can play the PK ..I think Schneider would be fine; My preference would be to take someone with some of those same traits but with more puck moving upside , all be it more risk. I think Guhle has more upside .. If we want an RD I would probably go with Barron although that is certainly not universal. I would likely not use the isles pick on any of them.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

Drysdale being Canadian makes him a lil overrated imo.

I like him and wouldn't mind him at 5 but this talk about him being on a completely different tier than Sanderson is bs. People are comparing him to Keith and Doughty but those players were significantly bigger and able to outmuscle players in the NHL. Drysdale has a lot of growing to do if he's able to play defence like them. it's questionable if he'll ever get there.

 

[MatchesMalone]

Wow, you sure are an angry guy. Not living up to your handle either.

Dude. You can be better than this.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Drysdale being Canadian makes him a lil overrated imo.

I like him and wouldn't mind him at 5 but this talk about him being on a completely different tier than Sanderson is bs. People are comparing him to Keith and Doughty but those players were significantly bigger and able to outmuscle players in the NHL. Drysdale has a lot of growing to do if he's able to play defence like them. it's questionable if he'll ever get there.

Keith was 6' 168
Drysdale is 5' 11 170