Prospect Info: 47OA: Brady Cleveland

[norrisnick]

There’s a lot more players that busted with a similar profile to Cleveland than players that made it. That’s really my problem with this pick.

As the league transforms this kind of player, while valuable if they’re good enough to make it, becomes much more of a rarity.

I hope that this kid proves us all wrong and makes it as a rock solid 4/5/6 that will staple a shithead Tkachuk to the wall. I think it’s more likely that he’s in the AHL doing that to minor leaguers.

Cleveland can't bust. There is no expectation for him to do anything. Genius pick in that regard.

Dude himself describes his role as 6th D and PK. That's like a football player with his sights set on the practice squad. Or a baseball player as the 6th or 7th reliever in the bullpen. Or 7th outfielder that pinch hits/runs every other week.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

There’s a lot more players that busted with a similar profile to Cleveland than players that made it. That’s really my problem with this pick.

As the league transforms this kind of player, while valuable if they’re good enough to make it, becomes much more of a rarity.

I hope that this kid proves us all wrong and makes it as a rock solid 4/5/6 that will staple a shithead Tkachuk to the wall. I think it’s more likely that he’s in the AHL doing that to minor leaguers.

That is true of every profile of every player taken outside of the first round. We need to stop acting like we passed upon bona fide, top-line talent. Like I said, he needs to be able to move the puck even if he doesn't contribute a ton offensively and his skating needs to continue to improve.

The league isn't changing nearly as much as people want to think. If anything, there is even more of a premium on size on the back end because bigger kids skate much better than they did a decade ago. You don't need to sacrifice size for mobility as much.

 

[DoMakc]

People just cannot grasp the concept of probabilistic thinking. Which is funny, because they like to yap about "analytics"

 

[ricky0034]

That is true of every profile of every player taken outside of the first round. We need to stop acting like we passed upon bona fide, top-line talent. Like I said, he needs to be able to move the puck even if he doesn't contribute a ton offensively and his skating needs to continue to improve.

The league isn't changing nearly as much as people want to think. If anything, there is even more of a premium on size on the back end because bigger kids skate much better than they did a decade ago. You don't need to sacrifice size for mobility as much.

those guys have much higher ceilings if they do hit though

here we have a guy that not only has a low chance to hit but also has a low ceiling even if he does, the Wings managed to find a guy at 47th that somehow manages to be the worst of both worlds

 

[Gniwder]

those guys have much higher ceilings if they do hit though

here we have a guy that not only has a low chance to hit but also has a low ceiling even if he does, the Wings managed to find a guy at 47th that somehow manages to be the worst of both worlds

Yup, and add to that easily replaceable. It's not that hard to find 3rd pair D in free agency. The whole point of drafting and developing kids is to get cost relief through ELC/RFA and avoid having to overpay in free agency. If they wanted a defenseman that can hit but do nothing else right, they could have re-signed Hagg at league min as the 8th D. Zero cost save. That's what makes it a real dumb move.

 

[lidstromiscool]

those guys have much higher ceilings if they do hit though

here we have a guy that not only has a low chance to hit but also has a low ceiling even if he does, the Wings managed to find a guy at 47th that somehow manages to be the worst of both worlds

Using a 2nd rounder on a player that projects as a #5 or a #6 is truly astounding. Especially for a team that has mountains of depth/role players and zero high end talent. You'd think our 3rd pick of the 2nd round would be the perfect time to gamble with a high upside/skill player.

 

[izlez]

those guys have much higher ceilings if they do hit though

here we have a guy that not only has a low chance to hit but also has a low ceiling even if he does, the Wings managed to find a guy at 47th that somehow manages to be the worst of both worlds

I fundamentally disagree with this.

Who has the higher CEILING if EVERYTHING goes right in their development? The 6'5 210lb kid we took at #47 or the 5'10 160lb kid we took at #52?

What has a higher probability of happening, Cleveland learns how to stickhandle and take a slapshot, or Buchelnikov grows 6 inches and gains 60 lbs?

 

[raymond23]

I fundamentally disagree with this.

Who has the higher CEILING if EVERYTHING goes right in their development? The 6'5 210lb kid we took at #47 or the 5'10 160lb kid we took at #52?

What has a higher probability of happening, Cleveland learns how to stickhandle and take a slapshot, or Buchelnikov grows 6 inches and gains 60 lbs?

Buchelnikov

 

[norrisnick]

Buchelnikov

Yeah, that's an odd question to try and dunk on.

Buchelnikov's ceiling is what... a righty Kucherov? Cleveland's ceiling is a less offensively gifted Andreas Lilja.

Buch has way more options below Kucherov to still be a valuable asset. If you don't hit your ceiling of 3rd pairing/PK specialist... there aren't any other NHL spots for you.

 

[izlez]

Yeah, that's an odd question to try and dunk on.

Buchelnikov's ceiling is what... a righty Kucherov? Cleveland's ceiling is a less offensively gifted Andreas Lilja.

Buch has way more options below Kucherov to still be a valuable asset. If you don't hit your ceiling of 3rd pairing/PK specialist... there aren't any other NHL spots for you.

I just really think the concept of ceilings is dumb, especially in this case.

Buchelnikov has physical tools limiting him. Cleveland does not. What is preventing from Cleveland from being a Chara-Pronger hybrid?

(That's more of a hypothetical question regarding "ceilings". And a challenge since I don't believe anyone has demonstrated any actual knowledge of Cleveland himself. Just "tall man bad becaus other tall man bad")

 

[lilidk]

That combined with the fact his state line is 0+16 in 145 games in the USNTDP

Kid hasn't scored a goal since high school in 2020

Have never seen him, or did not pay attention, he doesn't produce points, but is he solid defensively, how his position game, his hockey iq , can he become something like Ericsson?

 

[HoweFan]

Sooner or later we were going to have to draft a tough guy to protect the other guys. He’s tough, 6:05, can skate, and play defense. That sounds alright to me. Did we draft him too soon, maybe. Perhaps one other team was ready to take him and we wanted him.

 

[newfy]

This upside/ceiling talk is all jut made up mumbo jumbo anyways. Effective hockey players win games, on HFboards ceiling just means flashy hands and dangles.

I'm not saying this specifically to Cleveland because we'll wait and see what happens there. But people on this website cried about Seider and Larkins upside at the draft, "cant use picks that high on guys with limited ceilings", and now theyre by far the best players on the team.

I'll wait and see on Cleveland specifically like I said, but guys at 47 dont have some crazy upside in the second round like posters in here want you to believe.

 

[Frk It]

Perhaps one other team was ready to take him

 

[Pavels Dog]

Cleveland can't bust. There is no expectation for him to do anything. Genius pick in that regard.

Dude himself describes his role as 6th D and PK. That's like a football player with his sights set on the practice squad. Or a baseball player as the 6th or 7th reliever in the bullpen. Or 7th outfielder that pinch hits/runs every other week.

There's really nothing wrong with knowing who and what you are. Would you have bought it if he talked about himself as a high-octane offensive powerhouse who models his game after Erik Karlsson?

 

[norrisnick]

There's really nothing wrong with knowing who and what you are. Would you have bought it if he talked about himself as a high-octane offensive powerhouse who models his game after Erik Karlsson?

No, but I'd have preferred to draft a guy with upside anywhere near that level, if not that type of player (not an EK fan). I care less about how Cleveland sees himself and more about the level of player he could reasonably become down the road.

Just think about it logically. What sense does it make to draft a guy, in the 2nd round no less, with bottom pairing upside? That's the kind of player you can pick up near league minimum every off-season.

With that 2nd draft a guy that has the potential to pop or trade the pick for a guy that's already made it and skip the 3-4yr "can this kid develop into a bottom pairing defenseman?" phase.

 

[izlez]

No, but I'd have preferred to draft a guy with upside anywhere near that level, if not that type of player (not an EK fan). I care less about how Cleveland sees himself and more about the level of player he could reasonably become down the road.

Just think about it logically. What sense does it make to draft a guy, in the 2nd round no less, with bottom pairing upside? That's the kind of player you can pick up near league minimum every off-season.

With that 2nd draft a guy that has the potential to pop or trade the pick for a guy that's already made it and skip the 3-4yr "can this kid develop into a bottom pairing defenseman?" phase.

Just think about it logically, do you think the Red Wings drafted this guy thinking the absolute best he could possibly if all the stars align is a number 6 defenseman, or do you think they just have a different opinion of him than you do?

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

those guys have much higher ceilings if they do hit though

here we have a guy that not only has a low chance to hit but also has a low ceiling even if he does, the Wings managed to find a guy at 47th that somehow manages to be the worst of both worlds

I agree that he doesn't have a super high offensive ceiling, but I am not sure that his chances of hitting his ceiling are materially worse than any of the other defensive options that were available at that point in the draft. Most NHL defensemen look more like Cleveland than Morin or Brzustewicz.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Using a 2nd rounder on a player that projects as a #5 or a #6 is truly astounding. Especially for a team that has mountains of depth/role players and zero high end talent. You'd think our 3rd pick of the 2nd round would be the perfect time to gamble with a high upside/skill player.

No, but I'd have preferred to draft a guy with upside anywhere near that level, if not that type of player (not an EK fan). I care less about how Cleveland sees himself and more about the level of player he could reasonably become down the road.

Just think about it logically. What sense does it make to draft a guy, in the 2nd round no less, with bottom pairing upside? That's the kind of player you can pick up near league minimum every off-season.

With that 2nd draft a guy that has the potential to pop or trade the pick for a guy that's already made it and skip the 3-4yr "can this kid develop into a bottom pairing defenseman?" phase.

and we just spend $3.4mm on Justin Holl

 

[norrisnick]

and we just spend $3.4mm on Justin Holl

Holl just spent 4 years in a top 4 role on a team significantly better than ours.

We could have traded a 2nd for Holl at any point in those last few years and saved the guessing game of whether or not Cleveland comes anywhere close to the level of player of Justin Holl...

There have been 15+ one-way UFA defenseman signings this summer under a $1.5M AAV with half a dozen UFAs still floating out there that played at least 40 games last season.



Drafting a guy with Cleveland's profile is akin to just lighting a 2nd round pick on fire...

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Holl just spent 4 years in a top 4 role on a team significantly better than ours.

We could have traded a 2nd for Holl at any point in those last few years and saved the guessing game of whether or not Cleveland comes anywhere close to the level of player of Justin Holl...

There have been 15+ one-way UFA defenseman signings this summer under a $1.5M AAV with half a dozen UFAs still floating out there that played at least 40 games last season.



Drafting a guy with Cleveland's profile is akin to just lighting a 2nd round pick on fire...

And the reason they let him walk was that he wasn't a very good middle pair defensemen (which suggests that he is truly a bottom pair defensemen). I hope that we are trying to actually improve the team, not simply get by signing bottom of the barrel players.

 

[norrisnick]

And the reason they let him walk was that he wasn't a very good middle pair defensemen (which suggests that he is truly a bottom pair defensemen). I hope that we are trying to actually improve the team, not simply get by signing bottom of the barrel players.

Ditto the draft, dude... ditto the draft...

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

That is true of every profile of every player taken outside of the first round. We need to stop acting like we passed upon bona fide, top-line talent. Like I said, he needs to be able to move the puck even if he doesn't contribute a ton offensively and his skating needs to continue to improve.

The league isn't changing nearly as much as people want to think. If anything, there is even more of a premium on size on the back end because bigger kids skate much better than they did a decade ago. You don't need to sacrifice size for mobility as much.

Saying that's true of every profile is a bit reductive. The type of prospect that is less likely to make it (outside of 4th line enforcer these days) is the no-offense, poor stick/shooting/passing skills defensive defenseman. There are lots of cases of drafting guys that you hope to be top 6 but turn into serviceable bottom 6 forwards. Or middle pair two-way D that turn into bottom pair defensive specialists at the next level. If you're a recent draftee and you are already only a bottom 6 defenseman then it's an uphill battle to make it.

Like I said, I hope I'm wrong and in 4 or 5 seasons time we're seeing Cleveland becoming our homegrown Radko Gudas.

 

[Gniwder]

We could have traded a 2nd for Holl at any point in those last few years and saved the guessing game of whether or not Cleveland comes anywhere close to the level of player of Justin Holl...

This is a good point, guys like Graves are available every season for a 2nd rounder. I've said it before, I'd just as soon trade 2nd round picks from now on if this is how Draper is gonna use them.

It's impossible to know w players ceiling, but from what I've watched he's pretty much at the floor and looks like David Hasselhoff eating a cheeseburger. It would take a miracle for him to make the NHL, even as a 7th D.

 

[norrisnick]

Saying that's true of every profile is a bit reductive. The type of prospect that is less likely to make it (outside of 4th line enforcer these days) is the no-offense, poor stick/shooting/passing skills defensive defenseman. There are lots of cases of drafting guys that you hope to be top 6 but turn into serviceable bottom 6 forwards. Or middle pair two-way D that turn into bottom pair defensive specialists at the next level. If you're a recent draftee and you are already only a bottom 6 defenseman then it's an uphill battle to make it.

Like I said, I hope I'm wrong and in 4 or 5 seasons time we're seeing Cleveland becoming our homegrown Radko Gudas.

Cleveland only had one more point than 16yo Nick Kempf on the USNTDP this past season. Kempf is a goalie...