Great pick by you guys. Augustine has been one of my favorite players in the 2023 draft for a few years now. I wouldn't say he's a steal because I had him at 36 and he went 41, so not a huge difference, but I think he's going to end up being a very good NHL goalie.
I've had him as the best goalie in this draft for well over a year. And really, I had him far above the others. The next guy for me I had 15 slots lower. 36 may not seem that high on a player, but it was about as high as I'm willing to put a 6'1 goalie. I'm not unwilling to rank a goalie top 32, but they basically have to have every tool, and unfortunately he's only 6'1.
But it really doesn't impact his game. He's so well positioned, he tracks plays really well, and people really underrate his quickness. I've seen some lazy takes this season where people said he lacks athleticism, but that's not true. They must just assume that his size can't be the only thing holding him back and there must be something else wrong with him, but if you watch the games, he has that incredible save when he needs it. He just needs it a lot less than other goalies. USNTDP had this weekly promo thing where they'd award one of their 5 goalies at the program the save of the week, and he won it basically every week. He absolutely has that in his game, and I'll argue this point against anyone who disagrees.
If you look at his stats, he basically rewrote the NTDP record book for a goalie this past season.
Here are a few of my favorite stats.
41 points higher SV% than the second string goalie (kid picked round 6 by Arizona). Being that much better than his battery mate is really hard to do.
2nd highest SV% ever at the NTDP (minimum 30 games). Only guy ahead of him was Jack Campbell. Augustine was at .915 and Campbell .917. Augustine was better than plenty of NHL goalies like Gibson, Oettinger, Demko, Knight, Woll, etc.
Best single season SV%. He had a .926 this season. People like to talk about the records that Perreault and Smith set this season in points, hello!!!!! Give Augustine some respect for breaking the goalie equivalent. I will argue against anyone that tries to say he wasn't the MVP for the full season of the USA team that won the U18 Worlds.
He lost once in regulation all season at the NTDP in 32 games played. This includes a bunch of games against much older and quite frankly just better college opposition. There were some games against college teams where the NTDP was outshot by a lot and he won them the game by outplaying the older college goalie on the opposite end. Only game he lost in regulation at the NTDP was against USHL powerhouse Chicago Steel. People seem to think that the NTDP win all the games they play, but they play a lot of older teams, so it's not so. The second string guy lost 7 games in regulation, and he would've lost a lot more if he played as much as Augustine did. 1 loss in regulation this season is ridiculous.
It's true that he lost a game against Canada at the World Juniors in regulation, but if you watch that game, he really was helpless on most of those goals. It was poor defense more than poor goaltending, and U18 goaltenders essentially never play well at that tournament. Even being selected for that tournament is a huge honor for them. That he got selected, beat out a guy who was a pretty decent goalie in the NCAA this season for the starter's job, and then played well up until they met the eventual winners is something I think people forget. It fell apart there, but he certainly helped his stock at the World Juniors, and is a heavy favorite to be the starter for another two years.
Another thing I wanted to address about this guy is that some have propagated that Augustine struggles in big games. It was based off a very small sample, and I'm glad he shut them up with his performance in the Gold Medal Game of the U18 worlds. It's absolutely true that last year in the Gold Medal Final of the U18 worlds that he struggled. Honestly, that was probably the difference in the game. But I think that's unfair, considering that he was a U17 then playing in a U18 tournament. He was leading the tournament in SV% too up until that final game, and just had a bad game. That doesn't even get into the fact that he was promoted up an age group, and then beat out a year older NHL draft pick for the starting net. It's been quite common through the years that goalies always struggle at these major tournaments when they are younger than the competition, whether it's the WJC18 or WJC20. That's the hardest position to play against older competition, and so he had an uneven game there. It happens.
Then it really ramped up after that game in the WJC20 against Canada, where as I mentioned he didn't play poorly as opposed to he got hung out to dry by his defense. He wasn't even supposed to be there either. Being the starter as a first year draft-eligible for one of the top nations is basically unheard of and any performance you get is a bonus. Just being there and earning that spot is mighty impressive. So after these two games, he got a really unfair reputation. He absolutely shut them up in the U18 Worlds Gold Medal game this year. He made quite a few big saves at the very end of the 3rd period with the game and his team on the PK, including one amazing one that would shut up any of the claims that he lacks athleticism. Those saves were so key to winning. If he doesn't make them, his team loses. Simple as that.
I think if you look at the totality, the SV% on this guy's EP page is an accurate approximation of who he is. Maybe I'll be wrong, but I just think he's that guy that is going to give you a good performance and a chance to win basically every game. That's how you get a SV% like his where it always seems to be really good over a long sample. I tend to think the best predictor of eventual goalie success is putting up those very good SV%'s consistently year after year, regardless of the level of hockey. Augustine's basically been near flawless in that regard his last two seasons, and he has all the tools from the eye-test too. Another thing I'll add is how much his coaches and teammates credit him for his preparation and competitiveness. I forget who said it, but someone had said at one point that he's basically a guy you don't need to coach because he does it all himself and is so mature in how he prepares and works on improving his game.
I'll end with this anecdote. As a Rangers fan, I constantly hear our players asked about how Shestyorkin saves the team in this game or how important to the team, and they basically just laugh at the question because it's such an obvious question that he's the guy that makes the team go. Ryan Leonard (the guy that everyone views as the leadership, intangibles, competitiveness guy on the 2005 NTDP age group) was asked in an interview to talk about Augustine, and he had the same type of answer. Just laughed it off like it's so obvious that Augustine was the leader of that 2005 NTDP team and they don't even worry about him because they have 100% confidence that he will lead them to victory. I'm not saying he's going to be like a Shestyorkin. I really hesitate to make that comparison, but the comparison actually kind of fits. It's possible Augustine never becomes more than a solid AHL goalie or mediocre backup. It's just so hard to predict for a goalie that age, but I really do think his upside is one of the best goalies in the world that the only reason some missed on seeing his greatness all along was because he's 6'1. And 6'1 isn't that short. It's not like 5'10, but I digress and won't make this post any longer.
