OT: 2024 Washington Commanders thread: change we can believe in!

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I can never remember seeing so many YouTube highlight videos from so-called scouts. It’s hard to figure out which ones are Clickbait looking at you Simms. And which ones are actually good which I’m feeling better about like Dan Orlovsky

 

[usiel]

So Simms just released his annual rankings, which I was kinda waiting for because he usually gets the top ones right and has good, unfiltered insights throughout. So even if you disagree, he's exhaustive about what he's seeing and how he got to where he is with his rankings.

I knew he liked JD and had been critical of Maye, but wow...



He's got Maye as the #6 QB prospect behind Williams, Daniels, Nix, Penix, and McCarthy. He acknowledges the athleticism, talent, and potential, but says there's not enough refinement to project him right now as a franchise QB.

They keep the QB he's currently talking about at the bottom of the screen, so it's easy to navigate if you want to jump around.

Long video but a good watch. Helps my leaning towards JD.

Edit: the Maye breakdown was substantial. Tankathon already has JD finally going to the Commanders at #2.

 

[Ajax1995]

I can never remember seeing so many YouTube highlight videos from so-called scouts. It’s hard to figure out which ones are Clickbait looking at you Simms. And which ones are actually good which I’m feeling better about like Dan Orlovsky

If only someone would assess these guy’s track records. There is no accountability whatsoever in this area so it is difficult to judge them. I don’t care how well thought out and compelling their analysis is. I want to know how often you have been fairly right in the past and how often you’ve been way wrong.

 

[ynotcaps]

If only someone would assess these guy’s track records. There is no accountability whatsoever in this area so it is difficult to judge them. I don’t care how well thought out and compelling their analysis is. I want to know how often you have been fairly right in the past and how often you’ve been way wrong.

He got points for nailing Stroud last year (tier by himself). They actually start the (interminable) video with running down his top 6 ranking last year. (OK, so "start" may not be the right word -- they get to it about minute 10 or so.)

 

[ynotcaps]

I can never remember seeing so many YouTube highlight videos from so-called scouts. It’s hard to figure out which ones are Clickbait looking at you Simms. And which ones are actually good which I’m feeling better about like Dan Orlovsky

Not really clickbait -- it's a pretty intensive breakdown rant on all these guys. Much deeper than Orlovsky. I prefer listening to QBs break down QBs.

Still can't find any ILB/noted defensive analysts doing QBs from the across the LOS perspective. If anybody here knows someone who fits the description, tell 'em there's an untapped market!

 

[Ridley Simon]

All of these dudes that post this crap — it’s about their brand. No more, no less.

As it should be, were we in their shoes.

Crap shoot

Trust our Guys.

 

[usiel]

All of these dudes that post this crap — it’s about their brand. No more, no less.

As it should be, were we in their shoes.

Crap shoot

Trust our Guys.

My issue is these are the same f'ing scouts from the previous drafts/regime. Sure maybe they were getting over ruled but we don't know that. Of course new GM comes in the scouting department is not getting overhauled, personel-wise, until after draft. Still good having ES and the other analytics hire but still kinda temper prospect evaluation for this one even though it is the most critical at the top.

 

[usiel]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/03/06/commanders-zach-ertz/

Harris’s belief in the value of analytics and sports science was central to his rebuilds of the NBA’s Philadelphia 76ers and the NHL’s New Jersey Devils, and it will be integral to his shaping of the Commanders. The team continued the process of transforming its player wellness and football analytics departments this week by hiring Tim McGrath.

McGrath will serve as Washington’s senior director of player health and performance, overseeing all aspects of athletic training, strength and conditioning, nutrition, sports science and player wellness. McGrath, an Australian citizen, joined the team late last season as a consultant while he awaited approval of an immigrant work visa to be employed full-time, a person with knowledge of the matter said. During that time, he observed the team’s operations to find ways to improve its training resources and processes.

“When you’re talking about just player evaluation, it’s a great data point. It’s a great cross-checker for you,” Peters said of his use of analytics. “And the more you can really tailor it to what you’re looking for in players, it can really help you gain edges. … Everybody’s got the same amount of money, same amount of players. … And by having a really good analytics team and analytics department, you can really get an edge that way.”

 

[ynotcaps]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/03/06/commanders-zach-ertz/

Boy, that's gonna' make it tough for the head trainer to run a coke operation from Ashburn.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I was just under assumption that a lot of these new coaches would be handling the draft like Kliff.

 

[usiel]

I was just under assumption that a lot of these new coaches would be handling the draft like Kliff.

My understanding the coaches focus is the roster at hand. Even the interviews of the new coaches it is was a lot of analyzing the current roster. So sure those pros and cons of a the current roster will factor in for the GM (imho) balancing the whole draft need versus best prospect.

 

[John Price]

All of these dudes that post this crap — it’s about their brand. No more, no less.

As it should be, were we in their shoes.

Crap shoot

Trust our Guys.

We have a strong FO now and an owner who doesn't meddle to draft QB's that went to school with his son.

The talking heads continue to talk out their ass. At this point it's between Maye and Daniels and I'm fine with either one.

 

[Jags]

It’s hard to figure out which ones are Clickbait looking at you Simms. And which ones are actually good which I’m feeling better about like Dan Orlovsky

They're all drumming up support for themselves, looking for more/better analyst jobs. Simms has always been very territorial, saying he doesn't like to talk much about QBs until he puts his list out because other, lesser analysts just parrot him. He addresses the clickbait thing in the video, saying this is his list. It won't change. He does it around the same time every year, before all the info is in (before the final pro days, sometimes just before the combine), because he likes to gauge his analysis. He wants to know how good he is at reading these guys, handicapping himself a bit to lean more on what he sees.

And sure, he comes off douchey in the process, but I like his process. He does feature interviews throughout the year with NFL QBs, talking about the nitty gritty, behind the scenes stuff. And a lot of guys talk to him, so he seems well-regarded around the league. The show he did with Florio at the combine was one of the very few that got all the top guys to sit down with them.

Orlovsky is a full-on self promoter. He said a lot of dumb shit this year and is hard to take seriously. He goes on every show that'll have him, says lots of provocative things, and a fair amount end up looking stupid. And to be fair, that's A LOT of guys with that job. Most of them are just as blowhardy.

I look for the substance in a sea of nonsense, and Simms is one I like. Not always a fan of his demeanor; he's definitely one of those "When *I* was playing..." guys, even though his NFL stint was about 20 minutes long. But his analysis is pretty spot-on, especially when it comes to QBs.

Long video but a good watch. Helps my leaning towards JD.

Edit: the Maye breakdown was substantial. Tankathon already has JD finally going to the Commanders at #2.

I've been back and forth on it 3 or 4 times now, and feel less and less resistant to the idea of trading back. A couple other guys showed really well at the combine, and some of the (purely speculative) trade packages being bandied about are pretty insane and hard to turn down if they ever proved real.

JD's running and sack tendencies still concern me, and I wish there was more film on him attacking the middle of the field, but I'm currently leaning that way myself...

 

[John Price]

Need at least one of those. Safety market is loaded and need to take advantage. Find the guy that best fits the system, not exactly the "best" player.

 

[ynotcaps]

Need at least one of those. Safety market is loaded and need to take advantage. Find the guy that best fits the system, not exactly the "best" player.

I think the issue is that we don't have a system yet. They've said as much on the O side of the ball, and I would assume the same is true on the D side. They're evaluating the talent they have and, presumably, figuring out how to get the best out of them.

That said, I'd assume that as a group of experienced professionals that that evaluation includes determining which pieces or maybe whole position groups may not fit scheme-wise with what the rest of the unit could do and identifying FAs who could fit in better.

(Holy shit -- I just realized that I have faith in our football operation to think strategically about the big picture and apply that tactically to individual player personnel moves. I... I can't remember the last time I honestly believed that. What is this strange new emotion?)

 

[John Price]

It was so sad reading about how Snyder handled FA and they often went for the biggest name like Landon Collins or Josh Norman instead of guys who just fit the pieces as you said. Now we have a proper FA that will work with the coaches and everyone is on the same page.

 

[kicksavedave]

I can never remember seeing so many YouTube highlight videos from so-called scouts. It’s hard to figure out which ones are Clickbait looking at you Simms. And which ones are actually good which I’m feeling better about like Dan Orlovsky

There's one guy in particular who makes every video with a clickbait title like "Caleb Williams (or whoever) just dropped a huge hint at the combine" and then you watch the video and there's literally nothing at all even remotely resembling a hint. I fell for it a couple times, then I blocked him on my feed.

I tend to only put stock in the former NFL or College players analysis. I still like Kurt Warner's the best. No one is more qualified to assess QB play, and he breaks down the positive and negative fairly, with the ultimate caveat that every single one of the players needs to improve to be good in the NFL and no one including himself can predict who has the ability to improve. Its impossible to predict when a person/player will hit their ceiling and physical talent alone is almost meaningless without the ability to improve from college. Ryan Leaf had significantly more physical talent than Peyton Manning, for example.

 

[kicksavedave]

It was so sad reading about how Snyder handled FA and they often went for the biggest name like Landon Collins or Josh Norman instead of guys who just fit the pieces as you said. Now we have a proper FA that will work with the coaches and everyone is on the same page.

Yep, Jay Gruden talked about this a bit, how the FO never really even asked the coaching staff what kind of players they wanted/needed for their system. And then they gave player control to Ron Rivera, who never bothered to even ask himself what kind of players fit his own system. The William Jackson III fiasco was a classic example of the FO (Ron) putting a square peg (WJIII who is a man corner) into a round hole (JDR and RR's zone cover scheme). Utter nonsense.

So glad we have smarter people in charge now. The future is bright.

 

[ynotcaps]

There's one guy in particular who makes every video with a clickbait title like "Caleb Williams (or whoever) just dropped a huge hint at the combine" and then you watch the video and there's literally nothing at all even remotely resembling a hint. I fell for it a couple times, then I blocked him on my feed.

I tend to only put stock in the former NFL or College players analysis. I still like Kurt Warner's the best. No one is more qualified to assess QB play, and he breaks down the positive and negative fairly, with the ultimate caveat that every single one of the players needs to improve to be good in the NFL and no one including himself can predict who has the ability to improve. Its impossible to predict when a person/player will hit their ceiling and physical talent alone is almost meaningless without the ability to improve from college. Ryan Leaf had significantly more physical talent than Peyton Manning, for example.

Yeah, Ryan Leaf is the guy sticks in my head as the avoid-at-all-costs case scenario. Fortunately it doesn't seem any of these guys have the "**** the world, I'm better than all of you clowns" attitude that afflicted him, CW's dad's foolishness notwithstanding.

 

[ynotcaps]

Not that there's anything wrong with turning a #2OA into a compensatory 3rd rounder 3 years later...

Somebody please get the Caps' return for Edmundson in front of Ron Rivera and tell him he's a dumbass.

 

[Ridley Simon]

My issue is these are the same f'ing scouts from the previous drafts/regime. Sure maybe they were getting over ruled but we don't know that. Of course new GM comes in the scouting department is not getting overhauled, personel-wise, until after draft. Still good having ES and the other analytics hire but still kinda temper prospect evaluation for this one even though it is the most critical at the top.

I have thought about this. Quite a bit.

I think that concern is overplayed, IMO. Scouts are given direction on what to look for, what the leadership wants in players, and a framework for their vision.

So Peters will still be able to put his stamp on this thing. When he round tables with the scouts and leadership, he can/will ask poignant questions to get the information that HE personally needs/wants.

So, while he will certainly replace some of these scouts with “his own folk”, I don’t think it means these scouts stink or anything. It was Rivera that stunk at this. Period, end. IMO, of course.

 

[Neil Racki]

My issue is these are the same f'ing scouts from the previous drafts/regime. Sure maybe they were getting over ruled but we don't know that. Of course new GM comes in the scouting department is not getting overhauled, personel-wise, until after draft. Still good having ES and the other analytics hire but still kinda temper prospect evaluation for this one even though it is the most critical at the top.

Except maybe ... Adam Peters was probably very intimate w the 9ers scouting of this draft and next years, so we get the benefit of all that knowledge coming over w him. Plus his current player scouting, Dan Quinn brings the Boys scouting of us over .. and promptly Nick Gates and Leno got cut.

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Im personally holding off on declaring now we have a competent FO, owner. I imagine we all said the same thing about Scot McCloughoun and Shannahans etc

FO and owner havent done anything yet, they havent had a chance to.

We dont know yet.

 

[g00n]

I don't think we turned over the entire org just to let the old scouts do the same old shit.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Except maybe ... Adam Peters was probably very intimate w the 9ers scouting of this draft and next years, so we get the benefit of all that knowledge coming over w him. Plus his current player scouting, Dan Quinn brings the Boys scouting of us over .. and promptly Nick Gates and Leno got cut.

--------------

Im personally holding off on declaring now we have a competent FO, owner. I imagine we all said the same thing about Scot McCloughoun and Shannahans etc

FO and owner havent done anything yet, they havent had a chance to.

We dont know yet.

This is all true. Save for the fact that the ONE constant amongst all those old failure stories…is GonZo!!!

 

[Jags]

Caesars Sportsbook has Daniels even with Maye now to be drafted #2. Hoge and Simms being so dogged in their recent criticism of Maye is thought to be the most recent cause of Daniels' continued ascent...

Might be more Maye falling than Daniels rising, but Vegas has spoken, for what it's worth.