OT: 2024 Washington Commanders thread: change we can believe in!

[CapitalsCupReality]

Hopefully he stays for a good while, but I have a feeling that with what is happening with JD, a handful of teams will come after KK full court press. Teams always want the next offensive genius and some of them may not understand that KK's offense is working because of JD. Without him, who knows.

What Ben Johnson did to us this offseason is very rare. KK will have suitors.

He will, but not many great opportunities….

We’ll see if money talks and he chases immediately, but I think there's a compelling angle for him to stay with JD, chase a ring here, and develop himself so he doesn’t flame out when he does take a 2nd HC role.

 

[ynotcaps]

He will, but not many great opportunities….

We’ll see if money talks and he chases immediately, but I think there's a compelling angle for him to stay with JD, chase a ring here, and develop himself so he doesn’t flame out when he does take a 2nd HC role.

This is where I am. He's got a unicorn QB here, and there is definitely a case to be made that there's a Super Bowl in this team 4-5 year horizon, maybe more than 1.
Where can he go that the same will be the case?
There's only 1 other situation that might come close -- CHI, and a reunion with Caleb, if they decide to dump Eberflus after this year.
But KK is still young and has a long future with possibility for a decade or more of HC'ing if he wants that. But why not make a mint of money and hopefully grab a ring or 2 in the interim? It'll only make him that much more money down the line.

 

[kicksavedave]

This is where I am. He's got a unicorn QB here, and there is definitely a case to be made that there's a Super Bowl in this team 4-5 year horizon, maybe more than 1.
Where can he go that the same will be the case?
There's only 1 other situation that might come close -- CHI, and a reunion with Caleb, if they decide to dump Eberflus after this year.
But KK is still young and has a long future with possibility for a decade or more of HC'ing if he wants that. But why not make a mint of money and hopefully grab a ring or 2 in the interim? It'll only make him that much more money down the line.

For a guy who left the entire football world for Thailand after flaming out with the Cards, I don't see KK as a pure money chaser. I see him as a guy who wants to be happy and successful, not a guy who wants to squeeze every possible dollar out of life. Hoping this hunch pans out and he sticks here a while. He will have offers.*

*But not from Chicago, they're 4-2 and if they continue that trajectory at all their HC ain't going nowhere. Carolina, Jets, Giants, Browns, Raiders, Titans, Jags are all the likely openings next year.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Add Cowboys and Eagles to open coaching spots

 

[Jags]

Well, you don't put all the pieces of an SB winner in one year, you build that team.

And don't you build that team by adding players? Trading away solid draft picks to add a receiver when that receiver or some other talented one will be available for free in a couple months is literally subtracting players. If it isn't to win a championship or to acquire real talent at a desperate need position, giving up assets this season isn't wise.

I can guarantee you that third rounders in '25 and '26 aren't going to yield immediate starters that are going to improve our chance of winning in JD's first contract window.

We have two 3rd-round rookies playing significant roles in our offense right now, and you're saying you can GUARANTEE me that we absolutely cannot select someone in the 3rd round in the next two seasons that might make a real impact in the next four years?

So it's inarguable that the players selected with those two picks PLUS the best receiver we can get in free agency this offseason won't equal getting Tee Higgins right now, even though there's a real chance that the receiver we could get in free agency is Tee f***ing Higgins?

I honestly don't understand the mentality of "if you can't fix everything, don't fix anything," or even "if you can't fix the most important thing, don't fix anything."

I honestly don't understand that mentality either. Who said those things?

I said defense is the priority. I also said that I'm okay getting Higgins if the cost is more reasonable than what you guys were saying and Peters was confident that it's absolutely not a rental. I also said that in the specific case of Higgins, I think it makes more sense to wait and see if he hits free agency, because giving up valuable assets for him now hurts our negotiating position with him. I believe those two reasons make it unlikely that Peters makes a trade for Higgins at all.

Seems to me that we mostly agree, just not specifically on what we'd give up to do that deal now. I wouldn't do two 3rds, simply because we know there'll be real WR talent in FA this year and receivers are really going to clamor for a spot next to JD for the next few years. Let's take advantage of the deal that JD can land us AND make those picks.

Adding objectively less to make a change immediately seems shortsighted to me is all.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Well, as long as we're giving guys fictional illnesses, isn't it just as likely that the wideout you trade for will, um, accidentally slam his pecker in a car door and be out for a month or 2 or 3? Then what?

Guys get injured. You're basically arguing, "We only have Terry! So let's give up some draft picks to get WR2 or 1b or whatever so that if Terry gets injured we will be right back where we started, which I'm saying is not good enough!"

If you're also saying, "OR they both stay healthy and the new guy gives us a real chance to win a Super Bowl," I would remind you that we just got very steadily handled by a team with a can't-miss offense because they can score at will AND stop a strong opposing offense from scoring more. We don't have that.

If you think we're trading for that WR AND enough players to shore up our defense, you've bumped your head. Patience. Maybe Terry won't get that fictional flu.



So we have basically the worst D in the league, and marginally improving our offense is going to overcome that? I'm all for you and Rid's "Let's live in The Now!" mentality, but I'm also a fan of living in reality. We're not one receiver away from doing something incredible.

It wouldn't upset me if the team made a reasonable trade for a Higgins, for example. But if they do that and nothing else, all it likely does for us this year, if anything, is to win maybe a little more. Giving up picks to lower our draft position seems counterintuitive to me.

There will be plenty of talent in free agency next year. It's like we've been shot in the chest, stumbled into triage, and you're prioritizing the scrape on our elbow over the sucking chest wound.

How about the team needs a kidney transplant (defense), but still has a broken hand (WR).

We just wait on fixing the hand, because the kidney will take more time?

 

[Jags]

How about the team needs a kidney transplant (defense), but still has a broken hand (WR).

We just wait on fixing the hand, because the kidney will take more time?

Sure, but let's totally beat the shit out of this dodgy metaphor (sorry) by conceding that there's dialysis for a bum kidney in the meantime, and the hand isn't broken. The X-ray clearly shows that the hand is currently, right now, in the top 10% of hands on the planet. Turns out the hand is, in fact, pretty nifty by all objective measures at the moment.

I don't think we need to make any trades. And I like our front office and trust that if we do make a trade, it'll be one that most likely satisfies us both. In other words, I don't think AP is willing to give up the assets to make a trade of the type you guys are suggesting, but might make one that gets us something great for less, which I've been on board with since this discussion began.

And if I'm wrong, I promise I'll be the first to say so.

(Well, to be fair, you guys are here more than I am, so you'll probably be first. Just know that I'll be eating my crow in private until I can get here and do it publicly.)

 

[kicksavedave]

Too many metaphors.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Sure, but let's totally beat the shit out of this dodgy metaphor (sorry) by conceding that there's dialysis for a bum kidney in the meantime, and the hand isn't broken. The X-ray clearly shows that the hand is currently, right now, in the top 10% of hands on the planet. Turns out the hand is, in fact, pretty nifty by all objective measures at the moment.

I don't think we need to make any trades. And I like our front office and trust that if we do make a trade, it'll be one that most likely satisfies us both. In other words, I don't think AP is willing to give up the assets to make a trade of the type you guys are suggesting, but might make one that gets us something great for less, which I've been on board with since this discussion began.

And if I'm wrong, I promise I'll be the first to say so.

(Well, to be fair, you guys are here more than I am, so you'll probably be first. Just know that I'll be eating my crow in private until I can get here and do it publicly.)

To be general — getting a player before they become an FA almost always gives that acquiring team a leg up, in resigning said player.

“Why trade for a WR, who you could then resign for X million dollars, when you could possibly/perhaps/maybe/hopefully sign that same player for 130%X million dollars during his first ever FA period??”

I hate the argument “just sign them for free!!!”. Like it’s just that simple. Ignore the other 31 teams, I’m sure our guy will just be focused on us, even though he doesn’t know us from dick, AND we’ve been a dumpster fire of a place to be?

Erase all of that — why compete w 31 other teams, when you just need to work with one person, on one deal, once you’ve spent some capital for the right to do so?

We obv see team building in slightly different lights. I think a front office should *always* be aggressive in what they believe in. And when something is there, that is fair in our eyes (not some “we dominated that team in that trade!!! Yarrrr, dudes!!!!”), you do it.

Strike while the iron is hot.

No one is advocating 2 1st for the rights to XXX player. But you don’t get really good player for free. Hardly ever. You need to decide on how to spend to get them.

 

[ynotcaps]

And don't you build that team by adding players? Trading away solid draft picks to add a receiver when that receiver or some other talented one will be available for free in a couple months is literally subtracting players. If it isn't to win a championship or to acquire real talent at a desperate need position, giving up assets this season isn't wise.



We have two 3rd-round rookies playing significant roles in our offense right now, and you're saying you can GUARANTEE me that we absolutely cannot select someone in the 3rd round in the next two seasons that might make a real impact in the next four years?

So it's inarguable that the players selected with those two picks PLUS the best receiver we can get in free agency this offseason won't equal getting Tee Higgins right now, even though there's a real chance that the receiver we could get in free agency is Tee f***ing Higgins?



I honestly don't understand that mentality either. Who said those things?

I said defense is the priority. I also said that I'm okay getting Higgins if the cost is more reasonable than what you guys were saying and Peters was confident that it's absolutely not a rental. I also said that in the specific case of Higgins, I think it makes more sense to wait and see if he hits free agency, because giving up valuable assets for him now hurts our negotiating position with him. I believe those two reasons make it unlikely that Peters makes a trade for Higgins at all.

Seems to me that we mostly agree, just not specifically on what we'd give up to do that deal now. I wouldn't do two 3rds, simply because we know there'll be real WR talent in FA this year and receivers are really going to clamor for a spot next to JD for the next few years. Let's take advantage of the deal that JD can land us AND make those picks.

Adding objectively less to make a change immediately seems shortsighted to me is all.

Of course I can't guarantee that we won't get a useful player/potential starter with a third -- but I can guarantee that the odds of those picks providing value in the current and the next year if used to acquire a proven starter are FAR higher than the odds that they will provide starters immediately.

Yes, we have 3rd rounders playing prominent roles for us right now -- but don't we have to ask why that is? Because we were so barren of talent, 3rd rounders have just been able to step in and play, but also, we've needed them to. If we had a quality LT would Coleman be out there? Of course he wouldn't.

And Sain is going to be awesome, but if we had an existing option, he wouldn't have had to walk in as STAR. Even if you think he would have earned that -- and maybe he would have -- he's also playing OCB. Why? Because our existing OCBs are trash on fire. Including a high draft pick (yes, picked by someone else, but still) who's a gameday inactive because he can't play football.

I trust AP and his FO enough to believe that we won't need early-mid-round picks to walk onto the field opening day next year and the year after.

As for waiting for FA, I agree with earlier poster noting the home-team advantage that comes from having his rights. Especially when you've just demonstrated to him that you want him and will do what it takes to get him. Very practically speaking, it also gives you at least half a year of him working with your franchise QB. Even if you don't strike gold with a long playoff run this year, you head-off any breaking-in period next year.

Honest question (i.e. no heat), and here's where I think we figure out if we basically agree or basically disagree (which is totally cool, too): if it's a no-doubt day 1 CB starter that those 2 thirds brings back, do you do it?

I strongly consider it, and possibly do it -- consider factors like contract situation (years left, demands, production, injury status/history, etc.)

I want to make the team better now because our window has obviously moved up. I'm willing to use 3rd/4th rounders if they'll get it done just based on the odds of those picks turning into starters. Terrible analogy time: they can be 2 swings on a knuckle curve, or one swing on a center-cut fastball.

Good conversation.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

When have we ever had extra draft picks. I dont want to go back to the old ways of not having many.

 

[ynotcaps]

Meanwhile, back in the real world, awesome column from the Post. Didn't think I could love this kid more, but...

"Jayden Daniels is so smooth that watching him makes you feel what Grantland Rice must have when he first saw Jim Thorpe as a young player — “moving like a breeze,” as Rice wrote. It’s always tempting to assign such physical ease wholly to natural forces, but Daniels’s quarterbacking is just not natural. Throwing so well is a highly mechanical matter. Sure, it’s hard to ignore his fortunate endowments. How do you analyze the wind? But think about this. The wind doesn’t work. This kid works.

“Why does my spin on the football have a little wobble when I move right and throw back to my left?” Daniels once asked quarterback coach Taylor Kelly. How could he fix that, he wanted to know.
“When I climb up in the pocket, why is my ball going low?” he asked on another occasion.

This is whom the NFL is dealing with: a self-inquisitor who doesn’t just want to complete the pass — he wants to see the right rotation around the axis...."

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www.washingtonpost.com

When have we ever had extra draft picks. I dont want to go back to the old ways of not having many.

We have 9 this year. Keep in mind that a significant reason teams try to collect draft picks is the fact that they also serve as trade chips.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Meanwhile, back in the real world, awesome column from the Post. Didn't think I could love this kid more, but...

"Jayden Daniels is so smooth that watching him makes you feel what Grantland Rice must have when he first saw Jim Thorpe as a young player — “moving like a breeze,” as Rice wrote. It’s always tempting to assign such physical ease wholly to natural forces, but Daniels’s quarterbacking is just not natural. Throwing so well is a highly mechanical matter. Sure, it’s hard to ignore his fortunate endowments. How do you analyze the wind? But think about this. The wind doesn’t work. This kid works.

“Why does my spin on the football have a little wobble when I move right and throw back to my left?” Daniels once asked quarterback coach Taylor Kelly. How could he fix that, he wanted to know.
“When I climb up in the pocket, why is my ball going low?” he asked on another occasion.

This is whom the NFL is dealing with: a self-inquisitor who doesn’t just want to complete the pass — he wants to see the right rotation around the axis...."

Loading…

www.washingtonpost.com

We have 9 this year. Keep in mind that a significant reason teams try to collect draft picks is the fact that they also serve as trade chips.

You have to ask why players are for trade. You end up with the Chase Youngs and Josh Normans most the time.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Or Tyreek Hill, or Stefon Diggs (Bills), or Christian McCaffery or Trent Williams or Laremy Tunsil or Minkah Fitzpatrick or Jalen Ramsey or….

You get my drift

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Or Tyreek Hill, or Stefon Diggs (Bills), or Christian McCaffery or Trent Williams or Laremy Tunsil or Minkah Fitzpatrick or Jalen Ramsey or….

You get my drift

I have no problem spending. The NFL cheat code is rookie QB contract. We just need to find the right players.

The Texans did great this offseason with the CJ rookie deal.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I have no problem spending. The NFL cheat code is rookie QB contract. We just need to find the right players.

The Texans did great this offseason with the CJ rookie deal.

Correct. And we only have 5yrs of that. Why waste even one of those years (this one), by sitting on your hands?

 

[g00n]

Who? Aiyuk, Adams, and Cooper are now off the table.

Maybe hopkins? He could be had for cheap. Or Mike williams

Hopkins is intriguing.

Big fat pass on Williams who probably gets injured going to the bathroom at night.

 

[kicksavedave]

Adam Peters got the same basic return for Jahan Dotson, that Davante Adams and Amari Cooper fetched. That's criminal trespassing for the purpose of giving the Eagles a wedgy.

At this point in going to trust him explicitly, and tune out any suggestions that he should be doing anything other than exactly what he's doing.

 

[ynotcaps]

Hopkins is intriguing.

Big fat pass on Williams who probably gets injured going to the bathroom at night.

Hopkins is another 32 y.o. If they'd take a conditional 5th or something, maybe, but I'd prefer a guy with several productive years left.
Totally agree on Williams -- broken toy.

Adam Peters got the same basic return for Jahan Dotson, that Davante Adams and Amari Cooper fetched. That's criminal trespassing for the purpose of giving the Eagles a wedgy.

At this point in going to trust him explicitly, and tune out any suggestions that he should be doing anything other than exactly what he's doing.

No argument on that. The fun is the hypothetical "what if?"

Whatever AP decides is good with me. He won't need to Jerrah-rage-splain any actions or inactions to me..

 

[Jags]

To be general — getting a player before they become an FA almost always gives that acquiring team a leg up, in resigning said player.

I don't disagree, but I do think that's a very basic understanding of a very nuanced situation.

I'll concede that I have no idea if NFL trades can include contracts already being in place or at least where the camps have had chances to discuss it seriously before making the move. If that's the case, then my concerns would be lessened.

In the meantime, if all you're getting is essentially first crack at the guy who had little to no control over being traded to you, then getting Higgins for two 3rds gives his camp the elevated negotiating position of saying, "You just gave up real assets for us. You're invested in this deal happening. Walking away would be embarrassing for your club now."

For that reason and their freedom to go to free agency regardless, your assertion that we'd pay 30% more for him is probably not accurate. They're not incentivized to leave any money on the table. They can choose to, but they don't have to.

Again, I think your statement generally has some truth to it, but it's far more complicated than that.

I hate the argument “just sign them for free!!!”. Like it’s just that simple. Ignore the other 31 teams

Hey, I want the guy that wants to be here. Being a top target for JD is going to be one of the premier draws for free agent wide receivers next offseason. You might not get your top choice, but you'll have every opportunity to get one of the best available talents. We will absolutely be able to upgrade that spot mightily in free agency if it's a priority for us.

And if we have to overpay a little, will that amount of money be worth keeping two 3rds? Yes, in my opinion.

We obv see team building in slightly different lights. I think a front office should *always* be aggressive in what they believe in.

Great. What if what they believe in is being patient to maximize their assets and cap space? Draft picks that pan out are cost-controlled for years. NOT doing what you're saying could be them aggressively believing in getting the most bang for their buck to elevate the entire team.

but I can guarantee that the odds of those picks providing value in the current and the next year if used to acquire a proven starter are FAR higher than the odds that they will provide starters immediately.

You're probably right about that when viewed through that narrow a lens. But if you use those picks during the draft to secure the players you want most, you're increasing those odds dramatically.

The caveat there is IF you're a team that drafts well. We just assembled a murderer's row of a couple dozen managers and coaches heralded for their talent evaluation and cultivation. And their first draft together was pretty great, even without much time to prep.

if it's a no-doubt day 1 CB starter that those 2 thirds brings back, do you do it?

Absolutely. And just to avoid a potential gotcha moment, I'm assuming that we're talking about a starter that'd start anywhere because he's great AND that he's not like 34 or coming off an amputated leg injury or whatever.

But a "no-doubt day 1 CB starter" in DC right now is a VERY low bar, so I'm just covering my bases here.

If we're talking about a guy that would start anywhere that's got years left on the bone, yeah, I'd make that deal in a heartbeat because that is an area of crucial need for us. I don't think WR is anywhere near that level of need for our team.

Keep in mind that a significant reason teams try to collect draft picks is the fact that they also serve as trade chips.

True, but keep in mind that most picks are traded for other picks, not midseason for other players. Also that most picks-for-players trades that are above-the-fold, no-brainer moves typically involve contenders addressing crucial needs for immediate results.

We're not quite at the precipice of "A trade right now will help us win a title" territory, and wide receiver is not that crucial a need at the moment.

 

[ynotcaps]

No, no trap intended in the CB question. Assumption is it's a CB similar in profile to TH.

But the last response there is the rub: the best teams don't wait until a position is a need, they strike when the opportunity to grab talent is there.

(And re: AP's draft prowess -- love what he did this year, and am all in on him -- but if you feel like fishing, I posted a day or so ago about SF's 3rd round draft results 2019-2023; not impressive. Not posted as a shot at AP/SF -- was a look at what is a reasonable expectation for 3rd rounders to yield, and used SF as an example since it's now close to home.)

 

[usiel]

WR class for the 2025 NFL draft is pretty underwhelming at this point. Hopefully a decent veteran WR with some size can hit free agency for the next year or two.

 

[RedRocking]

I don't disagree, but I do think that's a very basic understanding of a very nuanced situation.

I'll concede that I have no idea if NFL trades can include contracts already being in place or at least where the camps have had chances to discuss it seriously before making the move. If that's the case, then my concerns would be lessened.

In the meantime, if all you're getting is essentially first crack at the guy who had little to no control over being traded to you, then getting Higgins for two 3rds gives his camp the elevated negotiating position of saying, "You just gave up real assets for us. You're invested in this deal happening. Walking away would be embarrassing for your club now."

I don’t think sign & trades are a thing in the NFL. But, look no further than Commanders legend, Montez Sweat. We dealt him to CHI last TDL, and they gave him that monster extension within like a week (IIRC?).

I assume agents talk, and CHI had an agreement in principle before they traded for him.

This is the type of move I’m advocating. A target the FO wants long term (and is confident they can lock up), and uses draft capital to get ahead of other suitors in FA.

Otherwise, I don’t think pure rentals make much sense at this stage of the rebuild.

 

[kicksavedave]

I don’t think sign & trades are a thing in the NFL. But, look no further than Commanders legend, Montez Sweat. We dealt him to CHI last TDL, and they gave him that monster extension within like a week (IIRC?).

I assume agents talk, and CHI had an agreement in principle before they traded for him.

This is the type of move I’m advocating. A target the FO wants long term (and is confident they can lock up), and uses draft capital to get ahead of other suitors in FA.

Otherwise, I don’t think pure rentals make much sense at this stage of the rebuild.

If a team gives permission for their player to talk to another team, they can discuss contract terms and come to a verbal agreement. Once the trade is finalized, they can sign it. Sign and trade doesn't work in the NFL because the team trading the player away would eat the bonus cap hit. So, it's always trade then sign. Pretty standard, so long as the permission to talk is given.

 

[ynotcaps]

Barnwell on ESPN has a bunch proposed trades:

Jets get H. Reddick for a '26 6th -- I'd do that in a heartbeat for us

We send Forbes and a '25 6th to the Chargers for a '25 5th -- I'd do that one, too

If we did both of those, the net would be:

Forbes, a '25 6th and a '26 6th out, Reddick and a '25 5th. Dead wood and 2 $2 scratch offs for a 13.5 sack/year (avg. since 2020) Edge and a $3 scratch off.

Feel I now need to add the following disclaimer:
*Not that I'm telling AP how to do his job