Of course I can't guarantee that we won't get a useful player/potential starter with a third -- but I can guarantee that the odds of those picks providing value in the current and the next year if used to acquire a proven starter are FAR higher than the odds that they will provide starters immediately.
Yes, we have 3rd rounders playing prominent roles for us right now -- but don't we have to ask why that is? Because we were so barren of talent, 3rd rounders have just been able to step in and play, but also, we've needed them to. If we had a quality LT would Coleman be out there? Of course he wouldn't.
And Sain is going to be awesome, but if we had an existing option, he wouldn't have had to walk in as STAR. Even if you think he would have earned that -- and maybe he would have -- he's also playing OCB. Why? Because our existing OCBs are trash on fire. Including a high draft pick (yes, picked by someone else, but still) who's a gameday inactive because he can't play football.
I trust AP and his FO enough to believe that we won't need early-mid-round picks to walk onto the field opening day next year and the year after.
As for waiting for FA, I agree with earlier poster noting the home-team advantage that comes from having his rights. Especially when you've just demonstrated to him that you want him and will do what it takes to get him. Very practically speaking, it also gives you at least half a year of him working with your franchise QB. Even if you don't strike gold with a long playoff run this year, you head-off any breaking-in period next year.
Honest question (i.e. no heat), and here's where I think we figure out if we basically agree or basically disagree (which is totally cool, too): if it's a no-doubt day 1 CB starter that those 2 thirds brings back, do you do it?
I strongly consider it, and possibly do it -- consider factors like contract situation (years left, demands, production, injury status/history, etc.)
I want to make the team better now because our window has obviously moved up. I'm willing to use 3rd/4th rounders if they'll get it done just based on the odds of those picks turning into starters. Terrible analogy time: they can be 2 swings on a knuckle curve, or one swing on a center-cut fastball.
Good conversation.