OT: 2024 Washington Commanders thread: change we can believe in!

[dreadpirateroberts]

Password: *TH3*B3A$T*2024*

 

[John Price]

Mel Kiper's two-round mock draft: Three trades up for QBs and how the Chargers could earn an 'A'

As the 2024 NFL draft inches closer, Mel Kiper is back for a new set of predictions, this time projecting two rounds of picks.

www.espn.com

 

[dreadpirateroberts]

Mel Kiper's two-round mock draft: Three trades up for QBs and how the Chargers could earn an 'A'

As the 2024 NFL draft inches closer, Mel Kiper is back for a new set of predictions, this time projecting two rounds of picks.

www.espn.com

I think they do well here. McConkey, Newton, or Powers-Johnson would be tempting though. I'd honestly like to see if they could offer a package like 36 and 67 to get Guyton or Mims

 

[dreadpirateroberts]

Washington Commanders 7-round mock draft: Washington opts for Drake Maye at No. 2 and trades back into Round 1 for Laiatu Latu

Trevor Sikkema reveals his seven-round mock draft for the Washington Commanders.

www.pff.com

Commanders 7-round 2024 NFL mock draft: Bold approach edition

What should the Washington Commanders do with their 2024 NFL Draft selections as the weeks wind down to the high-profile event?

riggosrag.com

Both mocks have them trading back into the 1st for different positions

 

[hotpaws]

Washington Commanders 7-round mock draft: Washington opts for Drake Maye at No. 2 and trades back into Round 1 for Laiatu Latu

Trevor Sikkema reveals his seven-round mock draft for the Washington Commanders.

www.pff.com

Commanders 7-round 2024 NFL mock draft: Bold approach edition

What should the Washington Commanders do with their 2024 NFL Draft selections as the weeks wind down to the high-profile event?

riggosrag.com

Both mocks have them trading back into the 1st for different positions

36-40-78 and a 2nd next yr , yeah i'm not doing that

if we can pkg one of our high 2nds with a 3rd to get into the first rd for an o/t that's fine but if not i'd rather stay where we're at since we'll still get a chance at some quality players

 

[kicksavedave]

Uh a lot of other scouts and pros agree with me, chief.

I’m not the only guy on the planet who prefers Maye. Most did up until like 5 minutes ago.

None of the others are saying "Passing on Maye is a fireable offense", you're literally the only guy saying that. There are at least some taking heads though, that say drafting Maye will get a GM fired. So you're definitely swimming against the crowd on this one. You're not credible.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Uh a lot of other scouts and pros agree with me, chief.

I’m not the only guy on the planet who prefers Maye. Most did up until like 5 minutes ago.

Any specifics? You’ve seen the big name opinions posted here FOR JD. I feel like maybe I’ve seen 1 or 2 posted here, but nothing recently…

 

[kicksavedave]

I’m not the only guy on the planet who prefers Maye. Most did up until like 5 minutes ago.

Its funny, the knock on JD being he blew up in his final year... I didn't hear a ton of people trashing Joe Burrow for this. Burrow couldn't even beat out Dwayne Haskins at OSU. Burrows first season at LSU had this incredible stat line: 58.8% comp, 2984 yards, 16 TDs, 5 Ints, 133 passing efficiency rating. That's undrafted free agent territory. His senior year, at LSU, he blew up and won the Heisman and put up incredible numbers including a 202 passing efficiency rating, which was fourth best all time in NCAA history. He landed the #1 overall pick based on just ONE season of high level production, with two outstanding WR's at his disposal (Chase and Jefferson).

Interestingly, JD put up a better Junior season, with 68.6% comp, 2913 yards, 17 TDs and 3 ints and a passer efficiency rating of 144. Then JD blew up in his Sr season at LSU also, with two outstanding receivers at his disposal, won the Heisman too, and put up a passer efficiency rating of 208, which just happens to be the highest rating in NCAA history.

So Joe Burrow has ONE year of production as a fifth year Sr, and he's good to go 1 overall. JD has one huge year as a fifth year Sr, and in his case its a fools errand according to you. The logical inconsistency you use to make your bias known is on record.

 

[Ajax1995]

Its funny, the knock on JD being he blew up in his final year... I didn't hear a ton of people trashing Joe Burrow for this. Burrow couldn't even beat out Dwayne Haskins at OSU. Burrows first season at LSU had this incredible stat line: 58.8% comp, 2984 yards, 16 TDs, 5 Ints, 133 passing efficiency rating. That's undrafted free agent territory. His senior year, at LSU, he blew up and won the Heisman and put up incredible numbers including a 202 passing efficiency rating, which was fourth best all time in NCAA history. He landed the #1 overall pick based on just ONE season of high level production, with two outstanding WR's at his disposal (Chase and Jefferson).

Interestingly, JD put up a better Junior season, with 68.6% comp, 2913 yards, 17 TDs and 3 ints and a passer efficiency rating of 144. Then JD blew up in his Sr season at LSU also, with two outstanding receivers at his disposal, won the Heisman too, and put up a passer efficiency rating of 208, which just happens to be the highest rating in NCAA history.

So Joe Burrow has ONE year of production as a fifth year Sr, and he's good to go 1 overall. JD has one huge year as a fifth year Sr, and in his case its a fools errand according to you. The logical inconsistency you use to make your bias known is on record.

We’ve been through this. There was no competition for Burrow and thus no reason whatsoever for anyone to look for a reason not to take him number 1. He was head and shoulders above everyone else. Nobody was saying the Bengals should take Tua or Herbert instead or go a different direction and take Young.

That is not the same situation here.

 

[hotpaws]

Its funny, the knock on JD being he blew up in his final year... I didn't hear a ton of people trashing Joe Burrow for this. Burrow couldn't even beat out Dwayne Haskins at OSU. Burrows first season at LSU had this incredible stat line: 58.8% comp, 2984 yards, 16 TDs, 5 Ints, 133 passing efficiency rating. That's undrafted free agent territory. His senior year, at LSU, he blew up and won the Heisman and put up incredible numbers including a 202 passing efficiency rating, which was fourth best all time in NCAA history. He landed the #1 overall pick based on just ONE season of high level production, with two outstanding WR's at his disposal (Chase and Jefferson).

Interestingly, JD put up a better Junior season, with 68.6% comp, 2913 yards, 17 TDs and 3 ints and a passer efficiency rating of 144. Then JD blew up in his Sr season at LSU also, with two outstanding receivers at his disposal, won the Heisman too, and put up a passer efficiency rating of 208, which just happens to be the highest rating in NCAA history.

So Joe Burrow has ONE year of production as a fifth year Sr, and he's good to go 1 overall. JD has one huge year as a fifth year Sr, and in his case its a fools errand according to you. The logical inconsistency you use to make your bias known is on record.

the difference between the two being Burrow was only a full time starter for a second year when he blew up unlike JD

anyway it doesn't really matter what other QB's have done in the past nor should it matter who people believe is more ready to start at this time since a slightly better record next year means shit

what the discussion should be is who will be a better QB 2/3 yrs from now

 

[kicksavedave]

We’ve been through this. There was no competition for Burrow and thus no reason whatsoever for anyone to look for a reason not to take him number 1. He was head and shoulders above everyone else. Nobody was saying the Bengals should take Tua or Herbert instead or go a different direction and take Young.

That is not the same situation here.

But this isn't the question here... "who's #1?" Thats clearly CW this year. The question is, how much stock should be placed on a one year surge? In both JD and JB's case, they were not really on any draft radar as a Jr and vaulted to the top of the draft with one huge 5th year senior season. Why is one player OK to explode in his 5th year but another is not, especially when their situations are very similar - transfers, to LSU, with great WRs, blew up and won Heisman. Why does one surge matter and one surge is treated as a negative by at least a few people, not universally, which shows how out of step a few people may be.

Big senior years vault QBs to the top of the draft ALL the time.

what the discussion should be is who will be a better QB 2/3 yrs from now

I agree. Which none of us can really know but some people make definitive statements as if they can literally see the future. At least Kurt Warner actually admits this when he reviews the guys. He has Maye as 5th best this year. He's entirely possible to be dead wrong.

 

[Ajax1995]

But this isn't the question here... "who's #1?" Thats clearly CW this year. The question is, how much stock should be placed on a one year surge? In both JD and JB's case, they were not really on any draft radar as a Jr and vaulted to the top of the draft with one huge 5th year senior season. Why is one player OK to explode in his 5th year but another is not, especially when their situations are very similar - transfers, to LSU, with great WRs, blew up and won Heisman. Why does one surge matter and one surge is treated as a negative by at least a few people, not universally, which shows how out of step a few people may be.

Big senior years vault QBs to the top of the draft ALL the time.

And if Daniels big senior year had put him so far ahead of everyone else that there was no consideration whatsoever who best pick was we wouldn’t be having this conversation.

But it didn’t. It brought him into the conversation with 2 or 3 other guys so now these types of things are part the conversation. All things being equal would you rather have a guy who was considered a likely top pick for multiple years or just one?

 

[kicksavedave]

And if Daniels big senior year had put him so far ahead of everyone else that there was no consideration whatsoever who best pick was we wouldn’t be having this conversation.

But it didn’t. It brought him into the conversation with 2 or 3 other guys so now these types of things are part the conversation. All things being equal would you rather have a guy who was considered a likely top pick for multiple years or just one?

But all things are not remotely equal. I'd rather have the guy who improved, consistently over a longer stretch, than the guy who regressed in his second year. But since things aren't equal, and their situations impact their performances, the question remains, how much weight to place on their 2023 results. The most important question is which player is more likely to improve enough to be successful and reach their potential in the NFL. If you know for sure, you're smarter than I am.

(Hint: no one knows for sure, everyone is just guessing)

 

[Ajax1995]

But all things are not remotely equal. I'd rather have the guy who improved, consistently over a longer stretch, than the guy who regressed in his second year. But since things aren't equal, and their situations impact their performances, the question remains, how much weight to place on their 2023 results. The most important question is which player is more likely to improve enough to be successful and reach their potential in the NFL. If you know for sure, you're smarter than I am.

(Hint: no one knows for sure, everyone is just guessing)

Ok, now you are changing the subject. You asked previously about Burrow and why him only having one year of great play didn’t appear to matter the way some are using it to downgrade Daniels. I told you why.

 

[kicksavedave]

Ok, now you are changing the subject. You asked previously about Burrow and why him only having one year of great play didn’t appear to matter the way some are using it to downgrade Daniels. I told you why.

You didn't tell me why one year of production counts for Burrow but is a negative for JD, which is the point I was countering. Its not about who they are being compared to. Its about how their 1 year of production is being looked at as a positive in one case and a negative in the other, when in fact they were in nearly identical situations. You didn't answer that.

 

[Jags]

than the guy who regressed in his second year.

You keep saying this. They installed a new offense and the personnel around him got worse, and somehow you wanted him to get better? The guy's a quarterback, not a magician.

JD got steadily better all by himself, right? The teams didn't get progressively better, too?

 

[EroCaps]

None of the others are saying "Passing on Maye is a fireable offense", you're literally the only guy saying that. There are at least some taking heads though, that say drafting Maye will get a GM fired. So you're definitely swimming against the crowd on this one. You're not credible.

I’m not credible because I have a strong opinion not shared by the crowd?

More like anyone who instinctively agrees with the mob is not credible.

If Maye hits and they passed on him bc of reasons… people will get fired. That’s not controversial. I’m just saying it out loud.

And it’s a distinct possibility.

He’s a pocket passer who can run. Daniels is a runner who can throw. One of these wins Super Bowls. The other wins regular season awards.

 

[Neil Racki]

Junkies (who i fukcing hate having to listen to in the AM commute) said Maye would have won the Heisman if he played for LSU.

Agree?

Disagree?

(my attempt at caring about draft fake hype .. I used to care in my 20s. Are you all in your 20s and 30s? Am I losing testosterone by not absorbing all the expert hype?)

PS - blue chews are awesome

 

[Holtbyisms]

Jay Gruden says Daniels is Josh Johnson with better accuracy and arm talent like Teddy Bridgewater. Says Maye is the better long term prospect of the two but Daniels is currently more ready to start.

 

[kicksavedave]

You keep saying this. They installed a new offense and the personnel around him got worse, and somehow you wanted him to get better? The guy's a quarterback, not a magician.

JD got steadily better all by himself, right? The teams didn't get progressively better, too?

I qualified it by adding that I get their situations impacted their results. But its not just the results that regressed, its the form, decisions, fundamentals, footwork. It can't all be explained away by the OC changing or the talent drop. If the pressure to be a hero impacted his performance, is that not something to be considered? JD also had a dreadful defense, he had to score 40 to win also. Everything around them both impacts their results.

 

[kicksavedave]

I’m not credible because I have a strong opinion not shared by the crowd?

More like anyone who instinctively agrees with the mob is not credible.

If Maye hits and they passed on him bc of reasons… people will get fired. That’s not controversial. I’m just saying it out loud.

And it’s a distinct possibility.

He’s a pocket passer who can run. Daniels is a runner who can throw. One of these wins Super Bowls. The other wins regular season awards.

You didn't say "If Maye hits" in your prior post. You just said "passing on him is a fireable offense". Well what if he busts? No one is getting fired for dodging a bullet. You just think your guy is a metaphysical lock to be great and the other guy is a guaranteed bust, but no one else is saying these things, you're out on a limb and tor descriptions of the guys isn't even very accurate. JD is the better passer. Maye misses a whole lot more easy passes, for no real reason (can't blame the easy misses on the system). Maye's arm strength is slightly better, but arm strength is a dreadful indicator of pro success. Just ask Jeff George, Jay Cutler and Zack Wilson. Zack could make all the off platform throws too. Brock Purdy was a 7th rounder because of lack of arm strength. So was Tom Brady.

Maybe you're clairvoyant and everyone else is a sheeple. But, I seriously doubt it.

Also if Maye hits and JD also hits, no one is getting fired. I stand by my original response, your post on that was utter nonsense.

 

[HTFN]

Jay Gruden says Daniels is Josh Johnson with better accuracy and arm talent like Teddy Bridgewater. Says Maye is the better long term prospect of the two but Daniels is currently more ready to start.

uhhh.....?

that sounds... underwhelming

 

[Jags]

If the pressure to be a hero impacted his performance, is that not something to be considered?

No, not if "the pressure to be a hero" comes from having a shitty offense around you. If you have the exact same caliber of guys around you, your new OC says he wants you to play hero ball, and you fold like a lawn chair, that's on you. That's regression.

But if take the 90's Cowboys and subtract Smith, Johnston, Irvin, another weapon or two, and kneecapped the offensive line and suddenly they had to win on Aikman's 24 TD passes alone, that wouldn't be on him. That's not regression. That's trying to replicate the success of a great team without the great team.

If JD's primary receivers last year were just Lacey and Taylor and his O-line was on par with Maye's, he absolutely would not have had the year he had, we'd be talking erroneously about his regression and overlooking how he handled that adversity. You can't separate JD's successes from the talent around him any more than you can separate DM's struggles to the lack of talent around him.

 

[Ajax1995]

You didn't tell me why one year of production counts for Burrow but is a negative for JD, which is the point I was countering. Its not about who they are being compared to. Its about how their 1 year of production is being looked at as a positive in one case and a negative in the other, when in fact they were in nearly identical situations. You didn't answer that.

Because nobody was remotely close enough to Burrow for it to matter. You do understand that concept right? Burrow was 100 times out of 100 the pick, whether he had 1 year of great play or 4. He was so far ahead of anyone else that only having one great year simply didn’t matter.

If someone was pushing him and said player had more years of experience playing at a top level that would have been a reason to consider the other guy. But that was not even close to the case so…

Edit: and nobody suggested Burrow only having one great year was a positive. Where did you get that?

 

[kicksavedave]

You can't separate JD's successes from the talent around him any more than you can separate DM's struggles to the lack of talent around him.

I just fundamentally disagree with this blanket statement. Its the job of the decision makers to assess how much their performance (not just stats, but growth, development, progression, decision making, etc) were caused by their surroundings vs part of their own natural progression. How much did they benefit from having talent around them vs how much they made the talent around them better. Its not all linear.

How many times did either of them fail to see open receivers, both when under pressure or when clean. How many times did either of them sense pressure coming pre snap and adjust properly (decisions that are strictly on the QB). How many times did either of them throw into tightly covered receivers when a better decision was available, either throw it away, or to another receiver who was open. These are important criteria for evaluating a QB's mental processing capability that are available to scouts, coaches and GM's regardless of the talent around QB.

The raw stats are clearly directly related to the surrounding cast, and the opponents (ACC vs SEC defenses is not close, BTW). But the raw stats aren't the whole story at all. Sure, you can separate the stats based on surroundings. That's not the entire evaluation though.