OT: 2024 Washington Commanders thread: change we can believe in!

[kicksavedave]

Because nobody was remotely close enough to Burrow for it to matter. You do understand that concept right? Burrow was 100 times out of 100 the pick, whether he had 1 year of great play or 4. He was so far ahead of anyone else that only having one great year simply didn’t matter.

If someone was pushing him and said player had more years of experience playing at a top level that would have been a reason to consider the other guy. But that was not even close to the case so…

Edit: and nobody suggested Burrow only having one great year was a positive. Where did you get that?

The whole point was that Ero said no one was considering JD 5 minutes ago, to which the response was "no one was considering Joe Burrow before his 5th year senior campaign either" and that turned out to be OK. The point was that JD's big jump isn't a knock on him, it shouldn't be used against him. He got better essentially every year (Covid year not included)

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I sure wouldn’t bet my career on the advice of one Jay Gruden…

 

[RedRocking]

I have no idea how useful this stat is (as this is my first time seeing it). But, it’s a pretty funny indictment of Maye’s teammates. Even Caleb’s supporting cast was worth some wins.

 

[kicksavedave]

I sure wouldn’t bet my career on the advice of one Jay Gruden…

Wonder if he was smoking a doobie when he wrote the tweet?

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Wonder if he was smoking a doobie when he wrote the tweet?

After his Twitter fight with rg3 I think he wants all the smoke with hot takes. Watch him have a pod cast soon lol

 

[Roric]

Dude’s career is over as soon as it started

 

[RedRocking]

I really like Ben Solak‘s (The Ringer’s draft guy) breakdowns. He just posted JD’s vid, and did DM a few days ago. He goes through the good and bad of each guy.

I swear he looks 15 (lol) - but he’s good at breaking down film with a lot of enthusiasm, and pointing out interesting little details.

 

[Holtbyisms]

I sure wouldn’t bet my career on the advice of one Jay Gruden…

He's no further away from the game than Louis Riddick, Chris Simms, Chase Daniels Kurt Warner or the long list of former players whose opinions we're banking on so hard in this thread. *shrug*

 

[Jags]

I just fundamentally disagree with this blanket statement.

Imagine my shock!

How much did they benefit from having talent around them vs how much they made the talent around them better. Its not all linear.

Of course it's not ALL linear. But some of it is. One guy objectively had two receivers that are going in the first round this year, and in the discussion for best at the position in this class. One guy objectively had an O-line that was nominated for the Joe Moore award.

The other guy objectively had one guy that routinely caught the ball away from his body, a good tight end, and a host of other guys primarily known for dropping things. The other guy objectively had an O-line that, if you hired them as bouncers with the sole purpose of keeping 18-year-olds out, your bar would immediately be filled with 18-year-olds.

The raw stats are clearly directly related to the surrounding cast

Correct. Based on the information above, it stands to reason that part of the differential between the stats for these two guys could easily be attributed to the differential in talent. It's easier to throw a TD to Michael Irvin than it is to throw one to the guy that drives Michael Irvin around. (Because the guy that drives Mike around is probably not very good at catching TDs. If he was, then someone would be throwing him TDs and Drake Maye would be throwing balls at whoever drives him around.)

and the opponents (ACC vs SEC defenses is not close, BTW).

Correct, but also somewhat relative. Maye was, in fact, playing versus inferior talent. But he was also playing with inferior talent. That matters. I'm not saying it accounts for every ounce of the difference in productivity, or that these guys would have had identical results if they swapped teams.

My contention all along is that the primary difference between them is style; that they have a comparable number of strengths and a comparable number of weaknesses, and that those lists differ far more in style than they do substance.

And I think that's a pretty objective take, because the debate between them is still raging. I don't think that's a coincidence, regardless of how certain you personally are.

But the raw stats aren't the whole story at all.

Of course not. The entirety of this conversation is about the context around those stats, properly framing the realities of what made one guy lesser and one guy greater; that there's way more to it than the stats. It's you that keeps saying simply that JD improved and DM regressed, which demonstrates a clear misunderstanding of that context.

Again, your praise of JD and criticism of DM are both too high. If the difference were as clear as you make it out to be, no one would be debating what Washington is going to do at 2 at all. But here we are, and the question of the #2 pick is the #1 draft talking point by a pretty wide margin everywhere in the NFL world.

 

[EroCaps]

Daniels is going to be a 24 year old QB with a play style that doesn’t age well past 30.

The Commanders aren’t going to contend for a Super Bowl in the next 2 years.

So we’re talking about taking a guy for a 3 year competitive window, who’ll likely be hurt for a portion of that, over a 10-15 year franchise starter.

Oh, and for an OC that’ll be gone in 2 years if it works.

Precisely that short term thinking that has plagued this franchise for 30 years.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Please use the Report button if you guys need me/another mod. I physically don’t have it in me to keep reading this thread for another few weeks, just can’t do it

 

[Bananas]

I’m no expert but breakout age is definitely a predictive element in scouting. Of course there are exceptions that prove the rule, and I think we’re forgetting that Joe Burrow is one of them. You don’t just not draft someone simply based on breakout age. There are too many outliers to make a hard and fast rule. But it’s a big factor.

When you watch the tape JD is clearly a better player than DM right now in my opinion. The reason I’d still draft Maye is build type, breakout age, play style and two elite seasons instead of one. He’s been better for longer at a younger age and has a better NFL body and arm. Stupid simple stuff.

I think it’s much safer to project Maye will grow into the role if he has the mental makeup and the processor. He has everything else you need and he fits the mold of players that tend to have longer, more stable careers. If you hit on him, the potential is there for a 10-15 year run of dominance. Sign me the f*** up.

The part that we cannot answer from the armchair surrounds the mental and personality traits that someone like Peters will have much more access to. I still think that JD and Maye are close enough that I’d be swayed by interviews and the testing as well as what coaches and peers had to say about them from a character standpoint. The harder working one with a better processor will most likely become the better pro QB, especially if there’s leadership and maturity there too.

 

[usiel]

I’m not credible because I have a strong opinion not shared by the crowd?

More like anyone who instinctively agrees with the mob is not credible.

If Maye hits and they passed on him bc of reasons… people will get fired. That’s not controversial. I’m just saying it out loud.

And it’s a distinct possibility.

He’s a pocket passer who can run. Daniels is a runner who can throw. One of these wins Super Bowls. The other wins regular season awards.

This does not pass my eye test watching every run pass for this past season. The dude played performed as a pocket passer this past season.

Not all these QBs are going to pan out. So you can basically insert any of their names as far as the potential to lead to a firing especially in the top 4 or so prospects.

Lastly no idea why those that favor JD are characterized as a mob. Seems pretty split even about who people slightly favor.

 

[usiel]

Dude’s career is over as soon as it started

Unless there was death or catastrophic injury I feel like these ended up getting pleaded down a fair bit.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

He's no further away from the game than Louis Riddick, Chris Simms, Chase Daniels Kurt Warner or the long list of former players whose opinions we're banking on so hard in this thread. *shrug*

Oh please…Jay is closer to a buffoon at this point…very little credibility as highlighted by all those teams begging him to come back and coach….

 

[ynotcaps]

I’m not credible because I have a strong opinion not shared by the crowd?

More like anyone who instinctively agrees with the mob is not credible.

If Maye hits and they passed on him bc of reasons… people will get fired. That’s not controversial. I’m just saying it out loud.

And it’s a distinct possibility.

He’s a pocket passer who can run. Daniels is a runner who can throw. One of these wins Super Bowls. The other wins regular season awards.

Repost from @Cush:
Among QBs, Jayden Ranks the best in the following

Most Accurate
Field Vision
Decision Making
Passing Mechanics
Scrambler

Maye:
Drive Thrower
Designed Rusher

JJ:
Pocket Mobility

You're not credible because you trash every opinion (and their sources) that don't treat Maye as a sure-fire QB God, you raise strawmen "I have a strong opinion you don't share?" "I go against the crowd?" while you ignore direct quotes from your own mouth (or at least don't own up to them in your "Why pick on me?" posts.) You are the only person here -- the only one -- saying that somebody else is "a sucker pick," Drafting him would be a "fire-able offense."

You're not getting heat because you're arguing against the main (which is, itself arguable, it seems a pretty even split of die-hards, with the majority in the "lean one way or another but could still be swayed), rather it's because you throw shit that everyone can see and then you claim you're not throwing shit.

(Oh, yeah -- you're also not credible because you think a guy that a former NFL Safety who gets paid to evaluate pros and prospects says ranks highest in 4 traits that are critical to high-level QB play is a 'a sucker bet' -- or that, somehow, you're a better evaluator of talent than a formal NFL Safety who gets paid to evaluate pros and prospects.)

 

[ynotcaps]

Unless there was death or catastrophic injury I feel like these ended up getting pleaded down a fair bit.

I don't know -- there's video that's been everywhere since this happened -- including of him walking the eff away without checking on anybody who might have been injured because of his stupidity.

This strikes me as an easy instance for law enforcement to make a point of the spoiled millionaire athlete.

He done F****D UP.

 

[ynotcaps]

I have no idea how useful this stat is (as this is my first time seeing it). But, it’s a pretty funny indictment of Maye’s teammates. Even Caleb’s supporting cast was worth some wins.

CW's offensive support wasn't terrible -- it was his defense that was atrocious (though, as an LSU fan, I'd put their '23 defense up in a bed-shitting contest against USC -- it would be one hell of an ugly watch.)

 

[usiel]

I really like Ben Solak‘s (The Ringer’s draft guy) breakdowns. He just posted JD’s vid, and did DM a few days ago. He goes through the good and bad of each guy.

I swear he looks 15 (lol) - but he’s good at breaking down film with a lot of enthusiasm, and pointing out interesting little details.

I think these were ok there were a couple pro/con nuggets for both QBs. But then there was also things I felt were a bit massaged to prove a point. Also there was no new insight that I have not see before at this point.

 

[kicksavedave]

After his Twitter fight with rg3 I think he wants all the smoke with hot takes. Watch him have a pod cast soon lol

He already does. A betting advice one.

Taking The Points Pod

Your favorite Betting Pregame show. Daily streams. Daily content. Hosted by former NFL Head Coach Jay Gruden, JJ Gruden, Grant Puskar & Max Loeb.

youtube.com

627 subscribers. Lmao.

 

[usiel]

I don't know -- there's video that's been everywhere since this happened -- including of him walking the eff away without checking on anybody who might have been injured because of his stupidity.

This strikes me as an easy instance for law enforcement to make a point of the spoiled millionaire athlete.

He done F****D UP.

Ah video like that will make it harder. And of course he messed up. No excuse walking away from an accident. Be man and own up to it.

I actually have less yahoos trying to race me in the GT500 compared to the Camaro 2ss that I had. I think the closest was a what looked like a slightly modded M5 (at least visually) where we were going at highway speed and dropping the hammer a bit but still dude is not going to win that and he didn't.

 

[ynotcaps]

Ah video like that will make it harder. And of course he messed up. No excuse walking away from an accident. Be man and own up to it.

I actually have less yahoos trying to race me in the GT500 compared to the Camaro 2ss that I had. I think the closest was a what looked like a slightly modded M5 (at least visually) where we were going at highway speed and dropping the hammer a bit but still dude is not going to win that and he didn't.

I thought he owned both cars, and the other driver was associated with him. If that's the case, they were specifically out there TO drag race on a crowded interstate. Again, IF that's the case -- F*** that guy.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I thought he owned both cars, and the other driver was associated with him. If that's the case, they were specifically out there TO drag race on a crowded interstate. Again, IF that's the case -- F*** that guy.

He did. If you want to race that bad why not just go to a race track. I hate when I'm on 95 and you get 2 cars racing 120mph in and out of lanes.

 

[John Price]

 

[kicksavedave]

For those that like to know things, the Commies are in fact meeting with Maye on a top 30 visit. Daniels, Maye and Penix.