Player Discussion: 2024 Vezina Winner Connor Hellebuyck

[Mortimer Snerd]

On paper that sounds good but let’s assume for the sake of argument that the players have no intention of resigning with the Jets and the current offers are not acceptable.

If we can’t get reasonable value this summer then so be it. I don’t worry about the distraction if we have to start next season with Schiefele and Hellebuyck. Jets have lived through distractions in the past and will live through them in the future. Its part of the dynamics of professional sports teams.

Jets can’t fully control this because they need a market place to swap assets. The Summer is not over yet so we’ll see how it plays out.

Agree with the bolded - but I really don't want to start the season with Scheif and Helle not extended. There is just way too much risk of losing both for nothing. Injury, playing poorly so the offers only get worse, playing well so we are in PO contention.

I have to wonder just how bad the offers can possibly be? I mean, look at Buffalo's goalies. I can't believe they are actually going to go with Levi as the starter at this point. A man with a total of 7 pro appearances, not just NHL, pro at any level. His first 2-3 games he looked great. The last 4-5 not nearly so good.

Besides the risk to a season when they are supposed to take a big step up there is also the risk of rushing Levi. If not Levi their starter is Comrie.

Buffalo has sufficient cap space even before subtracting cap in the return for Helle. They have pieces they can spare that would have to be attractive to Jets. So how can they not make a good offer?

Scheifele has his warts but he is still a legitimate 1C on a cheap contract for the first year. He would be an upgrade on half the teams in the league, at least. A real difference maker on quite a few. I think Boston is the poster boy for needing a 1C. They would want to send some salary back. They need cheap depth. We have some players we could add to sweeten the pot and replace the more expensive players we take. Lots of flexibility on Jets part should enable a deal good for both teams.

 

[MelikeJets]

We seem to have a great pipeline of goalies coming. IF Helle truly wants out Chevy should try and get a good player for him (any position an asset is an asset) and a haul of draft picks for him. Go with LB and whoever this year.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I agree. There is almost zero doubt Helle long term deal will be negative value over the length of the deal. He has obvious value as a 1 year star to help try to push a team over the top.

Unless he signs a team friendly extension, the extension doesn't help a return like it did. for Dubois.

Essentially by letting Helle walk we would be "adding" (not subtracting) value to the team 6 years from now.

Add the return from a trade and that needle moves even further. I would add that there is no reason to forgoe that return if you are not strongly contending for a Cup.

I think this is not how the organization views it, however. For them, a chance at a couple games of playoff revenue, and maybe more with some luck may outweigh a 1st round pick. Running a hockey team vs running a business I guess. I hope we prioritize the hockey club, but that's hasn't always been the case.

The running a business argument doesn't stand up. Jets make something in the neighbourhood of 2 mil per PO game. You need 3 PO games just to pay about 85% of Helle's salary. They make a little more for 2nd rd games so 2-3 of them starts getting profitable. Except that that money goes to pay Scheifele's salary. So they pretty much have to make it to the 3rd rd before the business case becomes dominant.

The best business case comes from running the best hockey team. Make the PO and go deeper. Sell more jerseys, etc. Not to mention filling the stands during the regular season, which can't be taken for granted anymore.

 

[Potrzebie]

I saw a post on this topic today on another thread but the “Big five” goalies over the past 3 seasons have been Sorokin, Shesterkin, Saros, Helle, and Vasilevskiy.

I think back to the dark days of Pavelectricity and wonder how people can want to run a 3 time vezina finalist, 1 time winner out of town. \_(ツ)_/¯

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Since Hellebuyck did not attract the interest he was hoping for this offseason (and floating that he wanted over $9M didn’t help), I wouldn’t be surprised if Winnipeg resigned him during the season.

Hellebuyck mentioned in his end of season presser that maybe the mix wasn’t right with the team. Well, Dubois is gone and Wheeler has been bought out. The forward depth looks super interesting and I wonder how that will play out, especially with more of a positive culture change.

What if the Jets start strong and stay strong next year? Does that change Hellebuyck’s mindset? Maybe this is something that gets resolved in early 2024… see where the team is, see what the trade interest is like, see what Hellebuyck is thinking… Not sure I would keep Hellebuyck as a self-rental unless the Jets are really looking amazing.

I think that is not unreasonable but a lot would have to fall into place.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Negotiations are build on lies and posturing. Lebruns statements carry no weight with me.

What has LeBrun said lately?

 

[surixon]

What has LeBrun said lately?

Nothing that I've heard. It was that one tweet from the beginning of the offseason.

 

[kinghock]

I am back in on LAK. To me it comes down to whether Jets will retain salary. If they won't, it has tonwait until the deadline when teams can fit $2m under the cap. That's a big risk to me.

It has to be a futures deal by and large though. If we are truly in for Tatar, that might be an indication that offers for 55 and 37 are futures weighted.

A deal with the Kings would include retention on Helly, Arvidsson, Harkins to fill LA open roster spot, a 1st and a couple of prospects (Pinelli, Turcotte, Hellenius, Spence, Fagemo). Not too pretty, but that's where we are.

I just can't see how Copley, Talbot and Rittich is a real plan for the Kings.

I do not believe Kings will have any interest in Helle with his salary demand for new contract and with his age.
Even if Copley, Talbot and Rittich will not work for them they will find another younger and cheaper goalie.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

To your last sentence, it does. All depends how far the team is willing to stray. Agreed a 5 year extension is not a huge long term hindrance at all. Likely similar to the Wheeler deal, could easily turn out better.

I think structuring the deal to make an eventual buyout as easy as possible is key. Go 6x9 with max front loading. Add some signing bonuses to sweeten it a bit, but only in the first 2/3 years. Same with trade protection. Buyout the last year. Cross fingers.

We seem to have a great pipeline of goalies coming. IF Helle truly wants out Chevy should try and get a good player for him (any position an asset is an asset) and a haul of draft picks for him. Go with LB and whoever this year.

Not the first choice but better than losing him for nothing in a year.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think back to the dark days of Pavelectricity and wonder how people can want to run a 3 time vezina finalist, 1 time winner out of town. \_(ツ)_/¯

Who's running him out of town?
He has indicated he wants to leave. People are thrashing about here in damage control mode.

Nothing that I've heard. It was that one tweet from the beginning of the offseason.

Which tweet was that? Beginning of the off-season is right in the middle of my old man's memory dead zone. My usual attemp at recall -> Was that this year, or last year? Oh wait, it was 5 years ago. What was your name again?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I do not believe Kings will have any interest in Helle with his salary demand for new contract and with his age.
Even if Copley, Talbot and Rittich will not work for them they will find another younger and cheaper goalie.

I don't see LAK working for Jets even if they take futures. They would need to retain salary AND take back salary. The futures would need to be all picks. Kings don't have the prospect pool to do it. Just too many factors weighing against it.

But Kings badly need an upgrade in net. A big one. They have invested in trying to contend but they will be hard pressed to make the PO as is.

 

[Potrzebie]

Who's running him out of town?
He has indicated he wants to leave. People are thrashing about here in damage control mode.

Can't give you their names because I have most of them on ignore

Besides, he hasn't indicated anything of the sort. Just that he doesn't want to be on a rebuilding team, which if you believe Chevy the Jets are not. All we have is that tweet from LeBrun and he's hardly a Jets insider.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Can't give you their names because I have most of them on ignore

Besides, he hasn't indicated anything of the sort. Just that he doesn't want to be on a rebuilding team, which if you believe Chevy the Jets are not. All we have is that tweet from LeBrun and he's hardly a Jets insider.

And if Hellebuyck will sign a decent, fair contract to stay in Wpg, there are very few, if any, who want him to leave.

There are those who think we should cash in on him now rather than sign a too much, too long contract but that is a different story.

Most would like to see him retire having never played for any team but the Jets.

I took his aversion to a rebuilding team as urging the Jets to not rebuild at this time. They are not doing so. But I don't know if what they have done is sufficient to get him to sign to stay here. His comment was 2 fold. 1) He doesn't want to be here for a rebuild. 2) He wants a shot at the Cup. We have satisfied #1. I'm not so sure about #2.

If the offers are really weak, the idea of cashing in dies. But if he won't accept a fair offer to stay we still need to get what we can for him.

 

[ps241]

In my book it would be disastrous. You let a 3 time Vezina nominee who has shown no signs of regression walk for nothing? That's disastrous. But I think there's no way Chevy let's this happen.

Almost equally disastrous is the fact we can't seem to convince him to stay here long term. With the current crop of exciting youth and new players joining the team, a Helly backbone would be key to keeping the Jets playoff contenders and a huge stabilizing factor.

I said it before, replacing a goalie of his calibre is impossible and I'm not looking forward to returning to the dark days of mediocre goaltending.

I am not feeling “disastrous”

We have had Helle since he was drafted until he is 30. That is pretty good run for a player. All players leave at some point.

Even with a prime Helle we have not been a contender for 5 seasons. We are/were a bubble group which TNSE seems to be happy with. Losing Helle will weaken us short term but it’s not like we are a contender anyways.

I will miss him but If he wants to move on he, of all Jets players, has earned right. It’s our organizations job to back fill as best they can and keep this moving forward.

 

[Flair Hay]

Agree with the bolded - but I really don't want to start the season with Scheif and Helle not extended. There is just way too much risk of losing both for nothing. Injury, playing poorly so the offers only get worse, playing well so we are in PO contention.

I have to wonder just how bad the offers can possibly be? I mean, look at Buffalo's goalies. I can't believe they are actually going to go with Levi as the starter at this point. A man with a total of 7 pro appearances, not just NHL, pro at any level. His first 2-3 games he looked great. The last 4-5 not nearly so good.

Besides the risk to a season when they are supposed to take a big step up there is also the risk of rushing Levi. If not Levi their starter is Comrie.

Buffalo has sufficient cap space even before subtracting cap in the return for Helle. They have pieces they can spare that would have to be attractive to Jets. So how can they not make a good offer?

Scheifele has his warts but he is still a legitimate 1C on a cheap contract for the first year. He would be an upgrade on half the teams in the league, at least. A real difference maker on quite a few. I think Boston is the poster boy for needing a 1C. They would want to send some salary back. They need cheap depth. We have some players we could add to sweeten the pot and replace the more expensive players we take. Lots of flexibility on Jets part should enable a deal good for both teams.

Your question in the second paragraph is kind of answered by your first paragraph.

The running a business argument doesn't stand up. Jets make something in the neighbourhood of 2 mil per PO game. You need 3 PO games just to pay about 85% of Helle's salary. They make a little more for 2nd rd games so 2-3 of them starts getting profitable. Except that that money goes to pay Scheifele's salary. So they pretty much have to make it to the 3rd rd before the business case becomes dominant.

The best business case comes from running the best hockey team. Make the PO and go deeper. Sell more jerseys, etc. Not to mention filling the stands during the regular season, which can't be taken for granted anymore.

I agree, but my point is that is not always the way it appears to be viewed by the organization.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Your question in the second paragraph is kind of answered by your first paragraph.

I agree, but my point is that is not always the way it appears to be viewed by the organization.

First point, I don't get.

Second point, I agree. The org has seemed to miss on some strictly business points, like resisting buyouts and retention in trades. They have done rare buyouts (exactly 2). I think they must have retained at some point but I can't recall when.

 

[ps241]

Agree with the bolded - but I really don't want to start the season with Scheif and Helle not extended. There is just way too much risk of losing both for nothing. Injury, playing poorly so the offers only get worse, playing well so we are in PO contention.

I have to wonder just how bad the offers can possibly be? I mean, look at Buffalo's goalies. I can't believe they are actually going to go with Levi as the starter at this point. A man with a total of 7 pro appearances, not just NHL, pro at any level. His first 2-3 games he looked great. The last 4-5 not nearly so good.

Besides the risk to a season when they are supposed to take a big step up there is also the risk of rushing Levi. If not Levi their starter is Comrie.

Buffalo has sufficient cap space even before subtracting cap in the return for Helle. They have pieces they can spare that would have to be attractive to Jets. So how can they not make a good offer?

Scheifele has his warts but he is still a legitimate 1C on a cheap contract for the first year. He would be an upgrade on half the teams in the league, at least. A real difference maker on quite a few. I think Boston is the poster boy for needing a 1C. They would want to send some salary back. They need cheap depth. We have some players we could add to sweeten the pot and replace the more expensive players we take. Lots of flexibility on Jets part should enable a deal good for both teams.

It’s all hard to say for me Mort since there are so many key details we are not privy to. At this point the only thing I am certain of is that the offers are not good enough yet for Chevy, and or Mark, and or Connor. Kevin has the summer to slow play it I guess and then we will see. If he does choose to enter next season with both guys rostered the maximum loss would be the delta between the best offer at the time and zero. Copp worked out spectacularly so Chevy does have a precedent. I am not saying it’s my plan A wish but Kevin has to play the hand if nobody is biting.

It will be interesting to see where it eventually lands.

 

[Guffman]

Not sure what Yzerman is doing in Detroit (just acquired DeBrincat)… looks like they are done with their rebuild nonsense.



Is native son Hellebuyck now a possibility?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Not sure what Yzerman is doing in Detroit (just acquired DeBrincat)… looks like they are done with their rebuild nonsense.



Is native son Hellebuyck now a possibility?

What could DRW reasonably give us for him? A LHD? Doesn't fit our needs. A goalie prospect? Same story. Top 6C? They are short one of those already. 1RHD? They have one and I doubt very much that they would part with him.

I don't see Detroit having the right assets.

 

[Guffman]

What could DRW reasonably give us for him? A LHD? Doesn't fit our needs. A goalie prospect? Same story. Top 6C? They are short one of those already. 1RHD? They have one and I doubt very much that they would part with him.

I don't see Detroit having the right assets.

I think it has to be a first plus prospects. They don’t have interesting roster players that they would trade to us.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think it has to be a first plus prospects. They don’t have interesting roster players that they would trade to us.

They don't have interesting picks or prospects either. Just a late 1st and the LHD & goal prospects I alluded to. I just don't see a fit at all.

Returns for Helle can be C, RHD, high picks, C/RHD prospects. Anything else is only useful to Jets if they can be flipped for C/RHD.

 

[kylbaz]

I just don't see anything happening before the season starts. I don't think there are a ton of options right now for the Jets. I think at the deadline one team's goalie will be hurt or underperforming, but what happens if we're in a playoff position? I guess ride it out with Brossoit? Everyone keeps talking Buffalo but I think Helle has zero desire to go there or re-sign there.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I just don't see anything happening before the season starts. I don't think there are a ton of options right now for the Jets. I think at the deadline one team's goalie will be hurt or underperforming, but what happens if we're in a playoff position? I guess ride it out with Brossoit? Everyone keeps talking Buffalo but I think Helle has zero desire to go there or re-sign there.

That could be, or not. The only thing they are missing to be a contender is a goalie. And boy, are they missing a goalie!

They can afford to pay us for Helle and still have a contending roster and they have the cap space to pay Helle. So, contender - check, big payday - check, and in the USA if that matters - check. Buffalo may not be the most attractive city but just how picky do you think Helle will be?

 

[jamiebez]

First point, I don't get.

Second point, I agree. The org has seemed to miss on some strictly business points, like resisting buyouts and retention in trades. They have done rare buyouts (exactly 2). I think they must have retained at some point but I can't recall when.

Someone helped my "old man" memory with buyouts a while ago, so I'll pay it forward

They've done two salary retained trades:

* Ladd trade to Chicago they retained 36%. Deadline deal, so there were probably 2 or 3 pay periods left in the season. And they sent some minor-league salaries the other way, which felt like balancing the books to me.
* Laine trade to Columbus they retained 26%. This balanced out his salary with Dubois'. This was also a shortened season, so they didn't hold the retention on the books too long this time either.

Retaining a significant chunk for a full season has not been a page in their playbook yet.

 

[Whileee]

I think Detroit would have some interesting assets in a trade for Hellebuyck or Scheifele. These might include:

Axel Sandin-Pellika (RHD, #17, 2023)
Robbi Fabbri (L Forward, 2 x $4M)
Carter Mazur (R F, U Denver)
2024 2nd round pick

If possible, it would be even better to try to pry Kasper or Danielson out of the Wings, but I doubt they would be offered (unless maybe if the Jets add something good to the trade package).