Player Discussion: 2024 Vezina Winner Connor Hellebuyck

[Gil Fisher]

Jets might need to take the best value, and flip future assets, as needed.

I actually don't mind a deal that is more futures-heavy for Hellebuyck, especially if Brossoit can carry a decent goaltending load. The Jets need to keep an eye on the present, but also strengthen the pipeline for the transition to the next young core.

Researching a bit more, Mazur sure seems to be in that McGroarty/Barlow mould...

His 38 points last year on the national champions tied for third among under-20 forwards last year, and both of the players ahead of him were sophomores with the benefit of a season’s worth of experience. This season, in his sophomore campaign, he’s wearing an “A” and his 17 goals to date are tied for first among under-21 skaters

Mazur’s a hard-working, honest 200-foot winger with enough skill to make plays all over the ice and finish around the net. Every team wants the three-zone, competitive winger who can play up and down the lineup, and that’s what he’s now starting to project as. He’s physical. He plays a hard and heavy game.

- Scott Wheeler, The Athletic

They do have other interesting prospects. A lot of size in Edvinsson, Soderblom, and Wallinder.

I suspect there could be a prospects heavy deal to be had here, if Detroit were interested in Helly, maybe with Heinola going the other way as well.

 

[tbcwpg]

So negotiations are underway and on track then….

In a "how about this? No, ok thanks, bye" kind of way, sure.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think the Jets are retooling with an eye towards getting younger. IM0 Chevy will be open to a variety of trade packages if they offer value. What we have seen with Helly and Scheifele and now DeBrincet is there isn’t much of a market for players with one year of control that are in positions to get their big UFA raises. It is a tough position for a GM to give up good assets and then have to give out a bad contract to satisfy the player coming in.

Obviously Chevy will be flexible to some extent and I agree that younger is part of the goal. If Chevy can find the right fit, the returns should be there. If not, maybe he circles back to extending one or both of Helle and Scheifele. Or he modifies the return he requires. I still don't see DRW as the ideal trading partner even if Chevy goes for an all futures package. They are on the list of possible destinations but not at the top.

We have 2 teams in dire need of what we have and who have what we need in return in Buffalo and Boston. As it happens that also means they could bypass us and deal with each other. But the fit is there. Buffalo needs a goalie and has Cs, Boston needs a C and has goalies. Chevy needs to make dealing with us more attractive to them than dealing with each other. Both of them may prefer to deal with the Western Conf rather than within their own Div. Either retaining salary or taking back cap may be a key factor. Pieces can be added to get it done.

 

[ps241]

I think the Jets are retooling with an eye towards getting younger. IM0 Chevy will be open to a variety of trade packages if they offer value. What we have seen with Helly and Scheifele and now DeBrincet is there isn’t much of a market for players with one year of control that are in positions to get their big UFA raises. It is a tough position for a GM to give up good assets and then have to give out a bad contract to satisfy the player coming in.

Yea I think it makes it really tough. I am a big Helle fan and I don’t want him here at $9 or $10 x 7 or 8 and that’s for free . Hopefully a win now contender may look at it differently, otherwise this next season may hold the max trade value. After that he becomes a UFA and clubs get him for his deal impact only. Then Connor can balance out best combined offer (contender status + max deal value)


Still have some summer left.

 

[Heldig]

I think back to the dark days of Pavelectricity and wonder how people can want to run a 3 time vezina finalist, 1 time winner out of town. \_(ツ)_/¯

He does not want to be in Winnipeg. He wants to sign in the USA. Jets need to get something in return if he wont sign a new contract with the Jets.

 

[Eyeseeing]

He does not want to be in Winnipeg. He wants to sign in the USA. Jets need to get something in return if he wont sign a new contract with the Jets.

Most of us want him to do what’s best for him and it appears he wants to go somewhere he feels he can win, hopefully with us but if not…more power to him.
I don’t think we’d want him signed for more than 5 years and even at that not at 9 million.

 

[10Ducky10]

Most of us want him to do what’s best for him and it appears he wants to go somewhere he feels he can win, hopefully with us but if not…more power to him.
I don’t think we’d want him signed for more than 5 years and even at that not at 9 million.

I'd give him 5 x 9m. The cap is going up and he is worth it, especially at the most important position. I'd only play him in 55 games, though. Give him lots of rest in the busiest of months.
It looks like they have a good schedule until after the ASG break and then it is hectic right up to the playoffs.
LB can handle 27 games.

 

[JetsUK]

I'd give him 5 x 9m. The cap is going up and he is worth it, especially at the most important position. I'd only play him in 55 games, though. Give him lots of rest in the busiest of months.
It looks like they have a good schedule until after the ASG break and then it is hectic right up to the playoffs.
LB can handle 27 games.

Agree that load management with Helle, if he's staying, is key.

The problem is that the team has shown no signs over the years of taking that load management seriously, or at least convincing Helle that its serious about resting him to optimize his performance. Here's this characteristically astute analysis by Big Dave Lowry :



We've heard regularly over the past few years that the person who decides if Helle plays or rests is... Helle. If he does re-sign -- and I kinda hope he doesn't -- he's going to have to play fewer games and especially fewer B2Bs.

I'm a big Helle fan, and this team is almost certainly worse without him, but I also think that if the Jets are going to reset. retool, reenergize or whatever is they're going that definitely, absolutely and for sure isn't rebuilding, they need fewer players who decide when, how and with whom they play.

 

[jetsforever]

Why would Helle extend in DET if he apparently wants to win now?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Most of us want him to do what’s best for him and it appears he wants to go somewhere he feels he can win, hopefully with us but if not…more power to him.
I don’t think we’d want him signed for more than 5 years and even at that not at 9 million.

I'd be quite happy with 5x9. I'd go 6x9, properly structured.
That is keeping in mind that the first year would be under the existing contract, so it would be for 6 or 7 years.

 

[ps241]

I'd be quite happy with 5x9. I'd go 6x9, properly structured.
That is keeping in mind that the first year would be under the existing contract, so it would be for 6 or 7 years.

It’s really going to depend on how adamant he is to play for a “contender” on his next contract.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It’s really going to depend on how adamant he is to play for a “contender” on his next contract.

And what he believes is a contender.
Are Jets contenders if he and Scheifele stay? IMO, not quite. Close though, with still some work to do at 2C and RHD. With those 2 extended, Jets have assets to devote to fixing those 2 remaining problem areas. It could be done.
The question is, does Helle agree with that?

I think Buffalo is one Hellebuyck away from contending. Or at least potentially. They lack experience, particularly PO experience. I see that as the thing that would hold them back.

The same applies to NJD. They are more experienced though, so are closer to truly contending.

 

[ps241]

And what he believes is a contender.
Are Jets contenders if he and Scheifele stay? IMO, not quite. Close though, with still some work to do at 2C and RHD. With those 2 extended, Jets have assets to devote to fixing those 2 remaining problem areas. It could be done.
The question is, does Helle agree with that?

I think Buffalo is one Hellebuyck away from contending. Or at least potentially. They lack experience, particularly PO experience. I see that as the thing that would hold them back.

The same applies to NJD. They are more experienced though, so are closer to truly contending.

So just talking out of my ass

I think he knows the Jets are not contenders

Buffalo???

Devils reach the contender dream with him IMO.

So NJ > Buffalo >>> Winnipeg (cup potential wise)

I have zero Idea if team Helle sees it that way.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

So just talking out of my ass

I think he knows the Jets are not contenders

Buffalo???

Devils reach the contender dream with him IMO.

So NJ > Buffalo >>> Winnipeg (cup potential wise)

I have zero Idea if team Helle sees it that way.

I think you underrate Buffalo. They missed the PO last year by 1 pt and had horrid goaltending. NJD at least appear to be closer, having made the PO last year and even won a round. In this context, appearances matter so it is easy to see how Helle might see them as a more likely contender. How it plays out is another matter. I also have zero idea of how team Helle sees it.

 

[Jet]

I think you underrate Buffalo. They missed the PO last year by 1 pt and had horrid goaltending. NJD at least appear to be closer, having made the PO last year and even won a round. In this context, appearances matter so it is easy to see how Helle might see them as a more likely contender. How it plays out is another matter. I also have zero idea of how team Helle sees it.

Buffalo looks like they are going to be scary good - especially if one of their young goalies figure it out.

I guess getting Helle could accelerate that - maybe we get a young forward and 6k as a return? I'd be good with that (depending on the forward)

 

[DRW204]

Buffalo were 4 pts back of us, missed by 1 point in the East.

They had the 24th best sv%
We were 9th

I think with Helle they're comfortably a 100+ pt team. However not sure on Helle's POV.

 

[Gil Fisher]

one of those fancy stat twitter guys is a Sabre fan and had an article on shooting regression being a factor for the Sabres next year....maybe losing 20 goals, iirc. I don't think he considered the youth development side and that maybe they create more and/or better shots going forward.

but his next article is going to be on their goaltending situation.

Buffalo were 4 pts back of us, missed by 1 point in the East.

They had the 24th best sv%
We were 9th

I think with Helle they're comfortably a 100+ pt team. However not sure on Helle's POV.

without looking it's probably the inverse for sh%

 

[DRW204]

Yeah They were one of the top goal scoring teams in the nhl we were in the low 20s iirc

one of those fancy stat twitter guys is a Sabre fan and had an article on shooting regression being a factor for the Sabres next year....maybe losing 20 goals, iirc. I don't think he considered the youth development side and that maybe they create more and/or better shots going forward.

but his next article is going to be on their goaltending situation.


without looking it's probably the inverse for sh%

 

[stranger]

I'd be quite happy with 5x9. I'd go 6x9, properly structured.
That is keeping in mind that the first year would be under the existing contract, so it would be for 6 or 7 years.

5 or 6x9 will age just like Wheeler's contract. A 35/36 year old Helle will almost certainly be a team killing cap hit.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

5 or 6x9 will age just like Wheeler's contract. A 35/36 year old Helle will almost certainly be a team killing cap hit.

Helle seems to be pretty durable and relies more on smart positioning than pure athletic skill. He might easily remain effective until he is 40.

But I think structuring the contract is key. Signing bonuses in the first 2 years only. Minimal trade protection. Front load it to the max allowed by the CBA. That makes buying out the last year or two a small cost and a small cap hit.

That way, if he is still playing somewhat well, you can trade him, with retention if necessary. If he falls off a cliff, you can buy him out.

Giving out these big $$$ retirement contracts have to be seen as 2 way streets. Give the player his big $$$ but build in some protection for the team as well.

 

[ps241]

Buffalo looks like they are going to be scary good - especially if one of their young goalies figure it out.

I guess getting Helle could accelerate that - maybe we get a young forward and 6k as a return? I'd be good with that (depending on the forward)

Devon Levi is an excellent prospect but at 6’ and only 21 years of age I really think they should insulate him initially and certainly hedge their bets. Getting a guy like Hellebuyck and having them as a tandem could be a perfect path for Levi if he pans out. He gets 15-20 starts this year and gradually increases if he earns it. If he is really good over the next few season he and Helle share the net which to me is the perfect modern approach. If Levi becomes a stud then he pushes Helle out in 3 or 4 seasons.

The main thing Buffalo gets is as close to a guarantee as possible that your goaltending turns into your teams strength. Now they may chose a more economically wise route to try the same thing but there is a concern/risk that they rush the kid and screw things up.

 

[Jets4Life]

So just talking out of my ass

I think he knows the Jets are not contenders

Buffalo???

Buffalo are not contenders.

So NJ > Buffalo >>> Winnipeg (cup potential wise)

It's actually NJ > Winnipeg > Buffalo.

Buffalo ahead of Winnipeg in cup potential lol. Thanks for the laugh.

 

[ps241]

Buffalo are not contenders.



It's actually NJ > Winnipeg > Buffalo.

Buffalo ahead of Winnipeg in cup potential lol. Thanks for the laugh.

Winnipeg are not condensers.

What cup potential does Winnipeg have, please enlighten me because I am a fan and would love to have a glimmer of your hope?

With total crap sub .900 goaltending Buffalo finished with 91 points last season we finished with 95 with a Vezina finalist who wants to move on. All their best players (except 1) are under 25 years old. They have a top 5 prospect pools IMO. All our best players last season (except 1) were over 24. We have an improving prospect pool but were ranked #13 but the Athletic and our prospect pool is years away. Buffalo had 19 draft picks in 2022 and 2023 including 4 x 1st’s and 3 x 2nd’s, we had 12 picks including 3 x 1sts and 1 x 2nd.

Winnipeg peaked in 2017-18 and I don’t see any cup potential with our current line up. Our top guys not named Morrissey got older and are moving on (alledgedly). People were laughing at Jersey this time last season as they were coming off their 28th place finish. This season Jersey finished with 112 points good enough for 3rd in the NHL. Buffalo has gone from 37 points, to 75 points, to 91 points in the past 3 seasons and they are just getting started with their young core.

Buffalo usually finds a way to f*** things up but lately we are really meh in Winnipeg too. Our contending days are WAY behind us “and” the next chance we have to build a contender will most likely need to be with a new core “and” that is only if things breaks right “and” we draft really well over the next 3-5 seasons to support that core. Buffalo’s best days are ahead of them.

According to the Vegas site I just visited Buffalo odds are > than Winnipeg for the 2024 cup.

 

[Whileee]

I'd give him 5 x 9m. The cap is going up and he is worth it, especially at the most important position. I'd only play him in 55 games, though. Give him lots of rest in the busiest of months.
It looks like they have a good schedule until after the ASG break and then it is hectic right up to the playoffs.
LB can handle 27 games.

I'd be okay with as high as 6 x 9.167M (55M total). The Jets can buy out the last season, if necessary, as they did with Wheeler.

Scheifele's game relies on finesse / skill / shooting more than Wheeler's, so I think he might age better (he certainly keeps fit). Players like Giroux and Pavelski have been effective into their mid-30s.

 

[StumpyTown]

Helle seems to be pretty durable and relies more on smart positioning than pure athletic skill. He might easily remain effective until he is 40.

But I think structuring the contract is key. Signing bonuses in the first 2 years only. Minimal trade protection. Front load it to the max allowed by the CBA. That makes buying out the last year or two a small cost and a small cap hit.

That way, if he is still playing somewhat well, you can trade him, with retention if necessary. If he falls off a cliff, you can buy him out.

Giving out these big $$$ retirement contracts have to be seen as 2 way streets. Give the player his big $$$ but build in some protection for the team as well.

If Helle would sign a 5x9 or 6x9 I would do it today. With the projected cap increases over the next few years that 9 will be more comparable to a 6.75-8 today in the last years of the contract. A 35-36 year old Helle will still be a highly productive goalie given he relies more on mechanics than just pure athleticism. He hasn't had a history of nagging injuries so that bodes well for him. Out of any goalies in the league, Helle is the one I would want around in his mid thirties over the other great goalies who rely more on athleticism.