Player Discussion: 2024 Vezina Winner Connor Hellebuyck

[nobody imp0rtant]

I agree, but this also may be why a trade doesn't happen (i.e. the home run is never offered). Not necessarily because Chevy is snoozing at the cottage all summer.

It's all pure speculation of course. But I'm inclined to believe that Chevy works and tries harder to make trades than many on this board think. Just my opinion. It's also possible that he purposely doesn't make deals.

It's also possible Chipman has veto power and exercises it regularly to keep it in good shape.

You know, as much as I dislike Helly I'm actually hoping he wins the Vezina. That basically puts Chevy in a no win situation. Can't afford to lose him as a UFA, can't afford to re-sign him. Unless he wants to cripple his budgets for years to come with a Price-like contract.

He may have to take what he can get. Drink up, Chevy. It's...

 

[tbcwpg]

It's also possible Chipman has veto power and exercises it regularly to keep it in good shape.

You know, as much as I dislike Helly I'm actually hoping he wins the Vezina. That basically puts Chevy in a no win situation. Can't afford to lose him as a UFA, can't afford to re-sign him. Unless he wants to cripple his budgets for years to come with a Price-like contract.

He may have to take what he can get. Drink up, Chevy. It's...

I admire your commitment to making the Jets worse at every turn.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Interesting I rarely get into speculating about specific trade returns because they never happen in real life. Buffalo makes an interesing trade partner for Winnipeg and Helle. They have a very high scoring team, they have so much young talent, and they have a top 5 prospect pool IMO. They are overflowing with young talent and as you correctly pointed out they can make the move without disturbing what they have. Heck they could make all sorts of moves with their ELC depth. Thomson is 24 and a Star #1 centre that is that 100 point type, Cozens is the #2 center only 21 years old and got 68 points last season.

I think it comes down to how much faith they have in Devon Levi being their goalie of the future after his amazing College career. Not sure I would sell the farm for Helle with Levi becoming a full time NHL’er this season but how often does a guy of Helle’s pedigree come along?

We’ll see I guess.

Levi is only 21. I can't see him being ready for the NHL yet. But they may not expect him to take very long to become ready. If they are confident in him they probably would not pay the price for Helle. But the price is still the price. There will be multiple teams who are interested.

 

[DRW204]

If I did my math correctly, here is the list of goalies who have been nominated for the Vezina at least 3 times, winning at least once. The Vezina trophy was award to goalies by voting starting in the 1982-1983 season.

List of goalies who have 3 nominations (or more) + 1 win (or more)
Vasilevskiy
Rinne
Lundqvist
Brodeur
Kiprusoff
Belfour
Roy
Hasek
Barrasso
Fuhr
Hellebuyck

Some big names are not on that list.

this is quite the list. Price not being on here kind of stands out given his ~early-mid 2010s. Thomas and Bob both have 2 Wins but no other finalist appearances.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Nice post! Someone like Helle comes around almost never. Jets would need to consider filling the shoes of a centre (or two) as well as goalie if this trade happens.

It really depends on who else signs and who else leaves. I am starting with the assumption that Dubois is gone so we are already short a top 6 C. We may or may not have an internal solution but we won't know about that for 2-3 years. Then there is Scheifele. Will he be extended? Or traded? If he also goes, what point is there in keeping Helle?

As it was this year we barely made the PO. I doubt the return on Dubois makes us as good as we were this year so we are probably already a non-playoff team next year. Where can we look to just get back to WC2 level? A healthy Perfetti will help, if he can stay healthy. A full season of Niederreiter will also help a bit. A rebound year from KFC could help quite a bit. Will we re-sign Names? If so will he fill in effectively at 2C? Which of our current players are likely to take a step up? Gus? Barron? Both are old enough that they are probably what they are going to be. Some of our players are going to decline at least a bit.

What other young players do we have coming up who might make a difference? Heinola? Who will he displace? Will any starting D be traded? I think the only NHL ready forward we might have is Harkins. Will he get a good shot? Will he pass through waivers after the AHL season he just had?

If we extend both Scheifele and Helle we might be able to manage a retool on the fly but we have several holes to fill and I don't see how we will be able to do that.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

I admire your commitment to making the Jets worse at every turn.

I've said this many times over the last few years, and I still believe it to be true.

This team has to get worse to get better.

 

[ps241]

Levi is only 21. I can't see him being ready for the NHL yet. But they may not expect him to take very long to become ready. If they are confident in him they probably would not pay the price for Helle. But the price is still the price. There will be multiple teams who are interested.

Yea I am more wondering about Buffalo and do they really pin their hopes on an unproven net minder even with his solid pedigree. It might be prudent for Buffalo to pick up Helle and use Levi over the next 3 seasons in the back up role and hopefully he grows into a great back up that can split the net. Not sure Buffalo will need that 7 x $10 type goalie contract but I don’t know either it might be exactly what their young team needs to compete next season.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yea I am more wondering about Buffalo and do they really pin their hopes on an unproven net minder even with his solid pedigree. It might be prudent for Buffalo to pick up Helle and use Levi over the next 3 seasons in the back up role and hopefully he grows into a great back up that can split the net. Not sure Buffalo will need that 7 x $10 type goalie contract but I don’t know either it might be exactly what their young team needs to compete next season.

Yeah, a couple of coin tosses for Buffalo. As long as they have been waiting, do they want to risk losing some prime years of their young core? Get Helle and they are almost an overnight contender, at least a PO team.

 

[DRW204]

for both PIT and BUF (14th and 13th Overall)

PIT: i think would want to maximize Sid/Malkin/Guentzels contracts and have Jarry as a UFA. Casey De Smith i think is an ideal back-up goalie. I don't know how good their prospect pool is given they usually are buyers at the TDL, and over the years usually pick lower in the draft. but their 1st is in a good spot for a main piece i think.

BUF: i think it may just be a year early for them. obviously they do need to fill a need in net though with a proven strong commodity. Levi seems to be getting a lot of hype. i think of it a bit similarly to when we signed Mason for 2 years when we had a Helle as a up-and-comer already on the roster. they may look at a 2-year FA goalie to help get Levi acclimated and split starts to start before giving over the reigns . id think a team trading for Helle is also dealing in order to sign him too given the trade cost

LA, NJD are other options. maybe VGK (only L. Thompson is under contract). neither NJD or LA have 1sts this year, VGK is late. NJD idk if they can trade their 1st next year since it's conditional in the Meier trade. and any 2024 picks will probably be late given they have Helle for the entire season, so id expect a higher ranked prospect.

CAR has both Rantaa and Andersen as UFA. they did sign Kochetkov pretty early last season.... i think they sign a FA and basically replace their tandem. trading and then signing Helle to a 10m+ long-term through his 30s seems like a bit of an anti-Carolina type move.

Here's the UFA goalie list this year...... slim pickings

Yea I am more wondering about Buffalo and do they really pin their hopes on an unproven net minder even with his solid pedigree. It might be prudent for Buffalo to pick up Helle and use Levi over the next 3 seasons in the back up role and hopefully he grows into a great back up that can split the net. Not sure Buffalo will need that 7 x $10 type goalie contract but I don’t know either it might be exactly what their young team needs to compete next season.

they still have comrie under contract

 

[Romang67]

I admire your commitment to making the Jets worse at every turn.

I dont.

 

[Huffer]

I'm looking at it like Kulich was last year's #28 and the value of the 13th would be the 13th.

Kulich is looking better than either of the guys they took ahead of him so you can elevate his relative value if you like.

I think a goalie with Hellebuyck's resume is worth 13 + Kulich quite easily. And I don't buy the comparison to Schneider. Helle is way more proven than Schneider was. This latest Vezina nomination has to add to his value. Not as much as winning a cup would have, but still something.

Sabres can give us that kind of return without disturbing the existing roster and they can easily afford the cap hit. There will be competing offers for Helle.

With Kulich's season in the AHL, I think many including the Sabres would value him more than just the 28th pick. I do anyway.

Whether or not a team can trade multiple pieces and not affect their roster really should have no bearing as to whether they should.

I'd love to get a high pick like the 13th and a high end prospect for sure, I just don't know if that value is out there.

 

[tbcwpg]

I've said this many times over the last few years, and I still believe it to be true.

This team has to get worse to get better.

That may be true, but you're hoping that Hellebuyck wins the Vezina so he puts Chevy in a spot where he won't get good value for him. Thats not worse to get better that's just worse.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

With Kulich's season in the AHL, I think many including the Sabres would value him more than just the 28th pick. I do anyway.

Whether or not a team can trade multiple pieces and not affect their roster really should have no bearing as to whether they should.

I'd love to get a high pick like the 13th and a high end prospect for sure, I just don't know if that value is out there.

I have no problem recognizing Kulich's season.

Being able to make a trade without disturbing a set roster, or the set part of a roster is a big part of evaluating the cost. If Buffalo was looking at having to move one of their young core pieces in order to get a starting goalie they would be a lot more inclined to wait on Devon Levi. But giving them the opportunity to acquire one for futures only is a very different equation.

I don't know if that value is out there either. No one ever does until it happens. But I am certainly going to start out asking for a high price for may assets.

 

[Huffer]

I have no problem recognizing Kulich's season.

Being able to make a trade without disturbing a set roster, or the set part of a roster is a big part of evaluating the cost. If Buffalo was looking at having to move one of their young core pieces in order to get a starting goalie they would be a lot more inclined to wait on Devon Levi. But giving them the opportunity to acquire one for futures only is a very different equation.

I don't know if that value is out there either. No one ever does until it happens. But I am certainly going to start out asking for a high price for may assets.

I agree that not having to deal a current piece of the roster when a team is trying to compete is much more appetizing to the acquiring team for sure. I'm just saying that it shouldn't inflate the actual cost to a substantial degree. IOW, if the going value for a player is pretty closely established, because a team wouldn't have to remove from their current roster they shouldn't deal substantially more. The value is the value.

Agree on hopefully starting high. I hope we get great returns on all the players we might have to trade.

 

[scelaton]

Chevy really has to prove his mettle with this one. There is no question at this point that Helle is an elite goalie so Chevy should hold out for a significant return--more than many here are expecting. I'd also be fine with a medium (4-5 yr) term contract at <10M but just don't see him accepting that.

The Jets are a bit lost atm and the last thing they need is a Carey Price type contract without a viable plan for the future. And "let's give it one more try" with the same crew is not a viable plan.

 

[Guffman]

It really depends on who else signs and who else leaves. I am starting with the assumption that Dubois is gone so we are already short a top 6 C. We may or may not have an internal solution but we won't know about that for 2-3 years. Then there is Scheifele. Will he be extended? Or traded? If he also goes, what point is there in keeping Helle?

As it was this year we barely made the PO. I doubt the return on Dubois makes us as good as we were this year so we are probably already a non-playoff team next year. Where can we look to just get back to WC2 level? A healthy Perfetti will help, if he can stay healthy. A full season of Niederreiter will also help a bit. A rebound year from KFC could help quite a bit. Will we re-sign Names? If so will he fill in effectively at 2C? Which of our current players are likely to take a step up? Gus? Barron? Both are old enough that they are probably what they are going to be. Some of our players are going to decline at least a bit.

What other young players do we have coming up who might make a difference? Heinola? Who will he displace? Will any starting D be traded? I think the only NHL ready forward we might have is Harkins. Will he get a good shot? Will he pass through waivers after the AHL season he just had?

If we extend both Scheifele and Helle we might be able to manage a retool on the fly but we have several holes to fill and I don't see how we will be able to do that.

The Jets have always been less than the sum of its parts. Moving out a core piece like Dubois (who did not want to be here and faded in the second half of the year) does not have to be a huge negative to the team’s playoff chances next season.

Maybe the Jets go after Domi to plug the hole. Maybe they resign Namestinkoff and also trade away Schiefele and go for a culture change and maybe it takes a couple of years for internal players, like Perfetti, to take over a top 6 centre role.

Maybe not an easy transition for the immediate season and likely not a playoff season but retools are not seamless transitions anyway.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I agree that not having to deal a current piece of the roster when a team is trying to compete is much more appetizing to the acquiring team for sure. I'm just saying that it shouldn't inflate the actual cost to a substantial degree. IOW, if the going value for a player is pretty closely established, because a team wouldn't have to remove from their current roster they shouldn't deal substantially more. The value is the value.

Agree on hopefully starting high. I hope we get great returns on all the players we might have to trade.

I agree that the value is the value. Not having to disrupt a roster in order to meet that value makes it easier for a team to be a trade partner. It reduces the resistance to paying the value.

That said, the value is whatever the market will pay. Goalie value is hard to pin down as is the value of elite players. Market value will be determined by demand. I expect there will be a lot of demand for elite goalies and the supply will be 1.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The Jets have always been less than the sum of its parts. Moving out a core piece like Dubois (who did not want to be here and faded in the second half of the year) does not have to be a huge negative to the team’s playoff chances next season.

Maybe the Jets go after Domi to plug the hole. Maybe they resign Namestinkoff and also trade away Schiefele and go for a culture change and maybe it takes a couple of years for internal players, like Perfetti, to take over a top 6 centre role.

Maybe not an easy transition for the immediate season and likely not a playoff season but retools are not seamless transitions anyway.

Are you suggesting that we move Dubois and Scheifele and still keep Helle because it will only be a couple of years before we can rebound?

If so I could see that but I would be afraid the Helle would continue to be very good for those years and then age would start to catch up to him just as we are getting back to having a competitive roster of skaters. Meanwhile his excellent play during that couple of years just weakens our drafts.

The return on Helle now has to be a factor too. It should be very high right now and could give a big boost to the retool/rebuild. If the offers are underwhelming the assessment might change. But I think that even at worst the offers will be pretty substantial. Of course that will leave us in the difficult position of having to find a replacement starting goalie. That is very hard to predict.

 

[Guffman]

Are you suggesting that we move Dubois and Scheifele and still keep Helle because it will only be a couple of years before we can rebound?

If so I could see that but I would be afraid the Helle would continue to be very good for those years and then age would start to catch up to him just as we are getting back to having a competitive roster of skaters. Meanwhile his excellent play during that couple of years just weakens our drafts.

The return on Helle now has to be a factor too. It should be very high right now and could give a big boost to the retool/rebuild. If the offers are underwhelming the assessment might change. But I think that even at worst the offers will be pretty substantial. Of course that will leave us in the difficult position of having to find a replacement starting goalie. That is very hard to predict.

Let’s say we do sign Hellebuyck to an 8 year, $10M AAV contract. The cap will finally be going up after next season so maybe that AAV isn’t as scary. Maybe it’s sold as a retool (Hellebuyck even suggested a different mix might be necessary) so we flip out Dubois, Schiefele and Wheeler and reinvest into current roster players.

If you’re signing an 8-year contract, you have to accept you’re not going to be a serious contender for each year. If the Jets commit to not doing a massive rebuild, that might be enough for Hellebuyck.

Two points that you raise:

1. Hellebuyck is 29 and an 8 year contract takes him to 37. Will he be a declining asset? Hellebuyck is more of a technical goalie and less so an acrobat. The research we should do (and I haven’t done this yet) is how long do elite goalies keep up their play? We’ve seen elite goalies play well into their mid-30s. Not sure I necessarily buy that he would have a major decline for a good chunk of that contract).

2. Draft positioning - if you’re removing Dubois and Schiefele and you start integrating some of these young prospects, I think we’ll still get some additional premium assets. This is added to what we get from Dubois and Schiefele. I don’t know if we’l be hurting that hard for a good prospect pipeline. We don’t have to completely tank for this and I don’t think there is a management/player/fan appetite to do that.

I think keeping Hellebuyck can be independent of what we do with Dubois and Schiefele.

 

[LowLefty]

Let’s say we do sign Hellebuyck to an 8 year, $10M AAV contract. The cap will finally be going up after next season so maybe that AAV isn’t as scary. Maybe it’s sold as a retool (Hellebuyck even suggested a different mix might be necessary) so we flip out Dubois, Schiefele and Wheeler and reinvest into current roster players.

If you’re signing an 8-year contract, you have to accept you’re not going to be a serious contender for each year. If the Jets commit to not doing a massive rebuild, that might be enough for Hellebuyck.

Two points that you raise:

1. Hellebuyck is 29 and an 8 year contract takes him to 37. Will he be a declining asset? Hellebuyck is more of a technical goalie and less so an acrobat. The research we should do (and I haven’t done this yet) is how long do elite goalies keep up their play? We’ve seen elite goalies play well into their mid-30s. Not sure I necessarily buy that he would have a major decline for a good chunk of that contract).

2. Draft positioning - if you’re removing Dubois and Schiefele and you start integrating some of these young prospects, I think we’ll still get some additional premium assets. This is added to what we get from Dubois and Schiefele. I don’t know if we’l be hurting that hard for a good prospect pipeline. We don’t have to completely tank for this and I don’t think there is a management/player/fan appetite to do that.

I think keeping Hellebuyck can be independent of what we do with Dubois and Schiefele.

Helle is also stating he want a cup - this will not get you a cup.
But I'm all for it - with or without Helle.
And I think we would need to be realistic in our expectations on both being competitive and signing Helle

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Let’s say we do sign Hellebuyck to an 8 year, $10M AAV contract. The cap will finally be going up after next season so maybe that AAV isn’t as scary. Maybe it’s sold as a retool (Hellebuyck even suggested a different mix might be necessary) so we flip out Dubois, Schiefele and Wheeler and reinvest into current roster players.

If you’re signing an 8-year contract, you have to accept you’re not going to be a serious contender for each year. If the Jets commit to not doing a massive rebuild, that might be enough for Hellebuyck.

Two points that you raise:

1. Hellebuyck is 29 and an 8 year contract takes him to 37. Will he be a declining asset? Hellebuyck is more of a technical goalie and less so an acrobat. The research we should do (and I haven’t done this yet) is how long do elite goalies keep up their play? We’ve seen elite goalies play well into their mid-30s. Not sure I necessarily buy that he would have a major decline for a good chunk of that contract).

2. Draft positioning - if you’re removing Dubois and Schiefele and you start integrating some of these young prospects, I think we’ll still get some additional premium assets. This is added to what we get from Dubois and Schiefele. I don’t know if we’l be hurting that hard for a good prospect pipeline. We don’t have to completely tank for this and I don’t think there is a management/player/fan appetite to do that.

I think keeping Hellebuyck can be independent of what we do with Dubois and Schiefele.

I don't accept the assumption that the cap will increase substantially after this year, at least not until I see it. We heard of a big increase for this year that never materialized. Many teams apparently had attendance declines this year. Who knows when/if that will rebound? That said, it is not the AAV that concerns me. It is the term.

I expect the returns on Dubois and Scheifele to be mostly futures. Their contributions won't be replaced directly. I don't expect Wheeler to be moved. If he is, there will have to be full retention and a minimal return.

Point 1. Helle turns 30 on Friday. He is under contract for next year so his extension will kick in when he is 31 and run until he is 39. Some goalies retain their play level until later 30s. Some do not. I think it is a huge gamble to count on a player lasting to that kind of age.

Point 2. I'm not suggesting a tank but whatever result we get we will draft later with Helle than without him. It might the difference between 5 & 10, or 10 & 15.

I assume Dubois is gone. Scheifele is another story. I think we can lose Dubois and still reasonably keep Helle on the assumption that we can retool fairly quickly. But if we lose both of our top 6 centres I think we need to accept that we are going to take a substantial step back and require at least 2-3 years to recover - with or without Helle. I don't believe we can afford the luxury of keeping Helle under those circumstances even in the (IMO) unlikely event that we could persuade him to stay.

This circles back to the small, undesirable market issues. Accepting the realities of trying to compete here means that we need to make the hard decisions, recognizing when is the time to cash in on assets before they depreciate.

I recognize, and share, the reluctance to face the near future without an able starting goalie. But I think we have no real choice IF we lose both Scheifele and Dubois.

 

[Guffman]

I don't accept the assumption that the cap will increase substantially after this year, at least not until I see it. We heard of a big increase for this year that never materialized. Many teams apparently had attendance declines this year. Who knows when/if that will rebound? That said, it is not the AAV that concerns me. It is the term.

I expect the returns on Dubois and Scheifele to be mostly futures. Their contributions won't be replaced directly. I don't expect Wheeler to be moved. If he is, there will have to be full retention and a minimal return.

Point 1. Helle turns 30 on Friday. He is under contract for next year so his extension will kick in when he is 31 and run until he is 39. Some goalies retain their play level until later 30s. Some do not. I think it is a huge gamble to count on a player lasting to that kind of age.

Point 2. I'm not suggesting a tank but whatever result we get we will draft later with Helle than without him. It might the difference between 5 & 10, or 10 & 15.

I assume Dubois is gone. Scheifele is another story. I think we can lose Dubois and still reasonably keep Helle on the assumption that we can retool fairly quickly. But if we lose both of our top 6 centres I think we need to accept that we are going to take a substantial step back and require at least 2-3 years to recover - with or without Helle. I don't believe we can afford the luxury of keeping Helle under those circumstances even in the (IMO) unlikely event that we could persuade him to stay.

This circles back to the small, undesirable market issues. Accepting the realities of trying to compete here means that we need to make the hard decisions, recognizing when is the time to cash in on assets before they depreciate.

I recognize, and share, the reluctance to face the near future without an able starting goalie. But I think we have no real choice IF we lose both Scheifele and Dubois.

I suppose we don't know what a long-term contract for Hellebuyck would look like. If he wants the 8-year term, perhaps that does draw down the AAV somewhat to recognize his latter years are not going to be valuable to a team. Front-load the compensation so that the latter years are more easily disposable to a tanking team (high cap/low comp).

Since we are in a small, undesirable market, I wouldn't be so quick to trade away players that actually would extend here. Maybe Hellebuyck gives us 6 more years of high quality goaltending under his new contract.

A 2-3 year recovery time if we dispose of both Dubois and Schiefele is a fair estimate. Is that too long for Hellebuyck? Maybe. Of course, we would then have to factor in Ehlers and KC, since their contracts expire during that recovery time... hmm, ok. I will concede the point to you. I think we would need to keep Schiefele to make keeping Hellebuyck a reasonable option.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I suppose we don't know what a long-term contract for Hellebuyck would look like. If he wants the 8-year term, perhaps that does draw down the AAV somewhat to recognize his latter years are not going to be valuable to a team. Front-load the compensation so that the latter years are more easily disposable to a tanking team (high cap/low comp).

Since we are in a small, undesirable market, I wouldn't be so quick to trade away players that actually would extend here. Maybe Hellebuyck gives us 6 more years of high quality goaltending under his new contract.

A 2-3 year recovery time if we dispose of both Dubois and Schiefele is a fair estimate. Is that too long for Hellebuyck? Maybe. Of course, we would then have to factor in Ehlers and KC, since their contracts expire during that recovery time... hmm, ok. I will concede the point to you. I think we would need to keep Schiefele to make keeping Hellebuyck a reasonable option.

I expect Helle will want trade protection built in and buy-out protection via big bonuses. Front loading could help but not if those protections get in the way.

I think a key aspect of this issue is that we are not a contending team. If we were, extending Helle would be a no-brainer, even knowing the contract will be a boat anchor at some point. But that 2-3 year recovery time might just be to get back to where we are now, not a contender.

Good point about not being too quick to move players who would sign here. But don't be too slow either.

I don't think there is a snowball's chance of extending Helle if both top 6 centres are gone. He will rightly see that as the beginning of a rebuild. So the debate becomes moot.

 

[jetsforever]

Helle is almost definitely not winning but it's cool that he keeps getting recognised as a finalist

 

[White Out 902]

Helle is almost definitely not winning but it's cool that he keeps getting recognised as a finalist

Should definitely help us get better valuable when we trade him