Blue Jays GDT: 2024 v6 | Fri, Sept 13 | vs StL | 7pm ET/4pm PT | TBA vs TBA

[CabanaBoy5]

You are wrong. That is OK.

Kirk has been hitting well for multiple months now. You are free to look up his stats yourself. This isn't a 10-game sample. You are uninformed, so why comment?

Furthermore, I am specifically referring to an actual incident that took place here recently. Someone made a post suggesting that it was imperative that we find a starting catcher for next season. I pointed out that Kirk's hitting was already turned around and with his elite defense, he is an easy starter. That person then waiting to bring up a 2-3 game sample as "proof" that Kirk was only a backup (because apparently he was too tired to get a hit?). Ironically, since that post was made Kirk has gone back to hitting (and has even thrown out several baserunners), so I guess he must not be "too tired" to start after all lol.

He also didn't even "suck" last season. This is pure hyperbole. Yes, it was a clear down year from his ALL-STAR 2022 season, but his 96 wRC+ last season placed him squarely at 10th among catchers who had a minimum of 400 plate appearances.

His 2024 xwOBA is slowly approaching his 2022 xwOBA (which was a season that produced 130 wRC+).


Apparently to some people, this is what a backup catcher looks like:


View attachment 903184

Uninformed? Why comment? Wtf are you talking about? Which of these BA, SLG, OPB, OPS, OPS+ is he not below his career avg? A quick peek at mlb.com shows his BA for the last 15 games is .234. Undeniably, he has been better the past few weeks against crap competition so even that stat is pumped up a bit.

Even if you think the past several months have been better, it's too early to conclude he's turned a corner and can catch 100 games in a season. Caleb Joseph said this morning on the FAN590 that the jury is still out on whether he can catch 100 games. According to a Toronto Star article on Aug. 15, he was one of the LEAGUE'S least productive hitters earlier in the year. There was a reason that Jansen was catching so often. Kirk only started 8 games in May and when his playing time increased in June, his OPS was a dreadful .561.

Granted, he's been better since July 1st, but he couldn't be much worse. However, you can't make the assertion that he can be a regular catcher now because then you're ignoring the past year and a half of very inconsistent offence from him. He's still lacking pop in his bat and that trend has continued from last year when he only hit 8 home runs.

Regarding comments about his weight, unquestionably if he lost some weight he'd be quicker. Sports performance research confirms that. Fat shaming I don't agree with.

No one is questioning his defence, he's elite in that regard. I truly hope he becomes our No. 1 catcher and catches 100 or more games next season.

However, don't denigrate other people's opinions or state they are uninformed. I formed my opinion watching him play, listening to the opinions of experts, reading stats on MLB.com and baseball-reference.com, and reading articles. How the f*** can you say "why comment" on a message forum? Unbelievably arrogant buddy.

 

[GoonieFace]

Uninformed? Why comment? Wtf are you talking about? Which of these BA, SLG, OPB, OPS, OPS+ is he not below his career avg? A quick peek at mlb.com shows his BA for the last 15 games is .234. Undeniably, he has been better the past few weeks against crap competition so even that stat is pumped up a bit.

Even if you think the past several months have been better, it's too early to conclude he's turned a corner and can catch 100 games in a season. Caleb Joseph said this morning on the FAN590 that the jury is still out on whether he can catch 100 games. According to a Toronto Star article on Aug. 15, he was one of the LEAGUE'S least productive hitters earlier in the year. There was a reason that Jansen was catching so often. Kirk only started 8 games in May and when his playing time increased in June, his OPS was a dreadful .561.

Granted, he's been better since July 1st, but he couldn't be much worse. However, you can't make the assertion that he can be a regular catcher now because then you're ignoring the past year and a half of very inconsistent offence from him. He's still lacking pop in his bat and that trend has continued from last year when he only hit 8 home runs.

Regarding comments about his weight, unquestionably if he lost some weight he'd be quicker. Sports performance research confirms that. Fat shaming I don't agree with.

No one is questioning his defence, he's elite in that regard. I truly hope he becomes our No. 1 catcher and catches 100 or more games next season.

However, don't denigrate other people's opinions or state they are uniformed. I formed my opinion watching him play, listening to the opinions of experts, reading stats on MLB.com and baseball-reference.com, and reading articles. How the f*** can you say "why comment" on a message forum? Unbelievably arrogant buddy.

He has as many homers as Moreno this season, and you can argue Moreno plays in a hitters paradise. Is Kirk the only player that plays against “inferior” competition?

No doubt he has struggled with the bat a little, but I’m pretty sure his weight has nothing to do with it. He has hit at every level with the same body type.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

He has as many homers as Moreno this season, and you can argue Moreno plays in a hitters paradise. Is Kirk the only player that plays against “inferior” competition?

No doubt he has struggled with the bat a little, but I’m pretty sure his weight has nothing to do with it. He has hit at every level with the same body type.

I don't know why you brought up Moreno, but if you're going to use him as a comparison offensively, you're going to lose that argument. Yeah, they've hit the same number of home runs, but in the last 15 games Moreno is batting .327 vs .234 for Kirk, against not so "inferior" competition. Don't even try comparing their seasons when it comes to OBP, OPS, OPS+ and SLG. Remember, I was responding to someone calling out those who didn't think Kirk could handle every day duties and as a result of the past month the suggestion is that he suddenly can. Body shape isn't an issue if you have great offensive stats, eg Babe Ruth wasn't in the greatest shape, but if you don't, then maybe shedding some pounds may help in not clogging up the basepaths.

 

[jetsforever]

Well that was cool
Feels like it's going to mess up some databases though

 

[Eyedea]

A catcher needed to be traded and the management made a choice. The problem with the Moreno trade is they acquired a defensive center fielder for one of the best catcher prospect in baseball along with a good bat while what the team desperately needed is a 4th better to replace Hernandez. Kirk's performance has no bearing on the evaluation of this trade.

BTW Moreno is a year and a half younger than Kirk, has better OPS+ than Kirk the last two seasons and won the GG last year. Beside i'm not even sure why you bring Moreno to this discussion as it's about Kirk. Kirk has to be better offensively speaking than he was last season and in the first half of this season. Not even sure why anyone would argue otherwise. Under 100 OPS+ for a guy who's slower on base than my dead grandma is not enough.

Catchers had a 90 wRC+ last year and a 93 this year, so he was technically above average last season and so far average this year. Plus based on his statcast data he’s been severely underperforming his expected stats and should see a marked improvement offensively.

Last year there were worrying trends, but this year he’s picked up a lot and is moving in a positive direction.

Plus Moreno might have been the best catching prospect in baseball but he was (and still is) not without his warts. Jays capitalized on his declining stock (due to power concerns) by acquiring the best defensive OF in baseball and a perennial 4 win player in CF.

And trust me I like Moreno and wanted him to stick with the org, but the value would have dissipated immensely had he moved off of C, and Kirk likely wasn’t bringing back the same type of value that Moreno was due to age/control. Though the age thing isn’t much of an issue when you’re still talking about a not even 26 year old player, who started playing NA pro ball the same time as Moreno.

 

[Eyedea]

I don't know why you brought up Moreno, but if you're going to use him as a comparison offensively, you're going to lose that argument. Yeah, they've hit the same number of home runs, but in the last 15 games Moreno is batting .327 vs .234 for Kirk, against not so "inferior" competition. Don't even try comparing their seasons when it comes to OBP, OPS, OPS+ and SLG. Remember, I was responding to someone calling out those who didn't think Kirk could handle every day duties and as a result of the past month the suggestion is that he suddenly can. Body shape isn't an issue if you have great offensive stats, eg Babe Ruth wasn't in the greatest shape, but if you don't, then maybe shedding some pounds may help in not clogging up the basepaths.

If we’re going to use arbitrary cutoff periods then let’s look at the last 30 days where Kirk’s been the 2nd best catcher in baseball and Moreno is… down and out for weeks with his season potentially in jeopardy.

 

[MS]

Catchers had a 90 wRC+ last year and a 93 this year, so he was technically above average last season and so far average this year. Plus based on his statcast data he’s been severely underperforming his expected stats and should see a marked improvement offensively.

Agree with most of your post but I think the bolded is probably something that will always be the case for Kirk because his speed turns so many balls that would be doubles for other players into singles and infield hits into outs.

 

[Eyedea]

Agree with most of your post but I think the bolded is probably something that will always be the case for Kirk because his speed turns so many balls that would be doubles for other players into singles and infield hits into outs.

The same was said about Vladdy last season as well. Point being is that he’s usually closer to his expected stats than he has been this year.

 

[Discoverer]

I don't know why you brought up Moreno, but if you're going to use him as a comparison offensively, you're going to lose that argument. Yeah, they've hit the same number of home runs, but in the last 15 games Moreno is batting .327 vs .234 for Kirk, against not so "inferior" competition. Don't even try comparing their seasons when it comes to OBP, OPS, OPS+ and SLG. Remember, I was responding to someone calling out those who didn't think Kirk could handle every day duties and as a result of the past month the suggestion is that he suddenly can. Body shape isn't an issue if you have great offensive stats, eg Babe Ruth wasn't in the greatest shape, but if you don't, then maybe shedding some pounds may help in not clogging up the basepaths.

What does the last 15 games signify? Why is that important to you? It's completely arbitrary, whereas a cutoff like July 27 (the day Jansen was traded and Kirk was pushed into the full-time catcher role) is a better indicator of recent performance since it's the day something clearly changed in his role.

Agree with most of your post but I think the bolded is probably something that will always be the case for Kirk because his speed turns so many balls that would be doubles for other players into singles and infield hits into outs.

Eh... unless a player has a long history of under/over performing those peripherals, I don't buy that. Kirk has a career .316 wOBA and .315 xwOBA, so he's pretty much bang on for his career. I don't think something has suddenly changed this year that leads to a 41 point underperformance.

We discussed the same thing with Vlad last year, and now he's back to almost even after one unlucky year.

 

[MS]

The same was said about Vladdy last season as well. Point being is that he’s usually closer to his expected stats than he has been this year.

What does the last 15 games signify? Why is that important to you? It's completely arbitrary, whereas a cutoff like July 27 (the day Jansen was traded and Kirk was pushed into the full-time catcher role) is a better indicator of recent performance since it's the day something clearly changed in his role.


Eh... unless a player has a long history of under/over performing those peripherals, I don't buy that. Kirk has a career .316 wOBA and .315 xwOBA, so he's pretty much bang on for his career. I don't think something has suddenly changed this year that leads to a 41 point underperformance.

We discussed the same thing with Vlad last year, and now he's back to almost even after one unlucky year.

Vladdy is a totally different level of athlete and baserunner to Kirk.

Kirk pretty clearly loses at least 10 hits/year plus a bunch of extra bases relative to an average baserunner and when his career is over that will likely be represented in the stats.

That isn’t to say that this year’s results might be above/beyond that, though.

 

[Discoverer]

Vladdy is a totally different level of athlete and baserunner to Kirk.

Kirk pretty clearly loses at least 10 hits/year plus a bunch of extra bases relative to an average baserunner and when his career is over that will likely be represented in the stats.

That isn’t to say that this year’s results might be above/beyond that, though.

He's almost 1500 PA into his career and that hasn't been reflected in his stats vs. expected yet, so I don't see why it should be expected to now.

Kirk is the 5th biggest underperformer relative to xwOBA this year. If you look at others who are underperforming to a similar extent, you have Bailey (similar to Kirk), Bo, Baez, Margot, Nootbaar and Sanchez (all around average speed), Tatis and Lopez (very fast), and Rodriguez (elite). I would love to see a study on this, but at a quick glance there doesn't seem to be any correlation at all.

 

[MS]

He's almost 1500 PA into his career and that hasn't been reflected in his stats vs. expected yet, so I don't see why it should be expected to now.

Kirk is the 5th biggest underperformer relative to xwOBA this year. If you look at others who are underperforming to a similar extent, you have Bailey (similar to Kirk), Bo, Baez, Margot, Nootbaar and Sanchez (all around average speed), Tatis and Lopez (very fast), and Rodriguez (elite). I would love to see a study on this, but at a quick glance there doesn't seem to be any correlation at all.

To sort if base running ability affects expected production you’d need to do a much more comprehensive study than just looking at a few examples.

Logically, it certainly should. Dalton Varsho gets a ton of hits and bases that Kirk simply doesn’t on the same balls in play.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

If we’re going to use arbitrary cutoff periods then let’s look at the last 30 days where Kirk’s been the 2nd best catcher in baseball and Moreno is… down and out for weeks with his season potentially in jeopardy.

I'm not the one who brought Moreno into the discussion, but if you want to use the last 30 games for each (30 days is irrelevant for who has been better recently as a mode of comparison because Moreno has been injured), let's compare the stats per mlb.com:

BA Kirk .297 Moreno .300
OBP Kirk .364 Moreno .379
SLG Kirk .426 Moreno .450

in July (Kirk 20 less at-bats)

BA Kirk .321 Moreno .329
OBP Kirk .344 Moreno .412
SLG Kirk .377 Moreno .452
OPS Kirk .721 Moreno .864

in August (Moreno only 11 at-bats)

BA Kirk .274 Moreno .364
OBP Kirk .370 Moreno .417
SLG Kirk .468 Moreno .636
OPS Kirk .838 Moreno 1.053

If we're strictly talking offence, Moreno is better and if healthy would have been better recently whichever cut-off you use.

 

[PanniniClaus]

Piece of hitting by Vlad.. make it a little easier on the pen.

 

[dredeye]

Watching Schneider watch strike three go straight down the middle of the plate for strike 3 twice today is annoying. The first time was a nice curve at least but this one was bad

 

[PanniniClaus]

That should be taken away as a homer every single time. Fans should never have their hands in that area. How can you know for sure?

 

[Discoverer]

To sort if base running ability affects expected production you’d need to do a much more comprehensive study than just looking at a few examples.

Logically, it certainly should. Dalton Varsho gets a ton of hits and bases that Kirk simply doesn’t on the same balls in play.

I realize it would have to be much more in-depth, which is why I mentioned that. But I felt for a few years that it would have an impact, and any time I've checked the leaderboard of under/overperformances, it's a surprisingly random assortment of players of different speeds on both ends.

Logically it makes sense that there would be a correlation, but given how consistently I've noticed a lack of correlation, my opinion on it has completely flipped until I see some evidence that actually supports it.

 

[Cloned]

Have the stats from suspended games always flashed back to when that game was originally played? It’s weird AF. It shows Springer hitting his 7th HR and Guerrero hitting .288

 

[MS]

Watching Schneider watch strike three go straight down the middle of the plate for strike 3 twice today is annoying. The first time was a nice curve at least but this one was bad

He’s at least reached base twice today for the first time since July 27 (19 games) but his approach and swing are both a total mess right now. It’s rough to watch.

Edit : whoops, the first time he reached base in this game was 2 months ago.

I realize it would have to be much more in-depth, which is why I mentioned that. But I felt for a few years that it would have an impact, and any time I've checked the leaderboard of under/overperformances, it's a surprisingly random assortment of players of different speeds on both ends.

Logically it makes sense that there would be a correlation, but given how consistently I've noticed a lack of correlation, my opinion on it has completely flipped until I see some evidence that actually supports it.

If there isn’t a correlation then it means either : a) the stat is broken or b) speed doesn’t matter in MLB.

 

[Eyedea]

To sort if base running ability affects expected production you’d need to do a much more comprehensive study than just looking at a few examples.

Logically, it certainly should. Dalton Varsho gets a ton of hits and bases that Kirk simply doesn’t on the same balls in play.

Varsho’s ability to pull balls in the air at an absurd rate also plays a drastic role in him outperforming his expected stats.

I’m not saying Kirk isn’t likely to underperform his xStats, but I wouldn’t expect it to maintain to the level that it has this season.

 

[Discoverer]

He’s at least reached base twice today for the first time since July 27 (19 games) but his approach and swing are both a total mess right now. It’s rough to watch.



If there isn’t a correlation then it means either : a) the stat is broken or b) speed doesn’t matter in MLB.

Yeah, I couldn't have explained it, but it's what I saw every time I looked into it. It was frustrating because it defied logic. Turns out I could have just looked into it and learned that xwOBA already factors in sprint speed, so that pretty much explains it. So we shouldn't expect Kirk to underperform his xwOBA because xwOBA has already accounted for the fact that he's slow.

 

[MS]

Varsho’s ability to pull balls in the air at an absurd rate also plays a drastic role in him outperforming his expected stats.

I’m not saying Kirk isn’t likely to underperform his xStats, but I wouldn’t expect it to maintain to the level that it has this season.

Varsho was just an example.

I don’t see any way, logically, that being a good strong baserunner wouldn’t cause the average hitter to outperform expected metrics and a poor baserunner to underperform.

Like, it’s clear as day watching games that Kirk loses bases because of his speed quite regularly.

Yeah, I couldn't have explained it, but it's what I saw every time I looked into it. It was frustrating because it defied logic. Turns out I could have just looked into it and learned that xwOBA already factors in sprint speed, so that pretty much explains it. So we shouldn't expect Kirk to underperform his xwOBA because xwOBA has already accounted for the fact that he's slow.

Ok that’s fair. I assumed it wouldn’t because the stat would make more sense that way.

 

[Eyedea]

Yeah, I couldn't have explained it, but it's what I saw every time I looked into it. It was frustrating because it defied logic. Turns out I could have just looked into it and learned that xwOBA already factors in sprint speed, so that pretty much explains it. So we shouldn't expect Kirk to underperform his xwOBA because xwOBA has already accounted for the fact that he's slow.

I know it accounts for speed on those weak groundballs that players have a chance to get a single on, but I’m not sure if it accounts for those bangers off the wall and runners either make it to 2nd or get held up at 1st.

 

[Eyedea]

The dinger streak continues

 

[trellaine201]

Kirk sucks. Sorry.