Blue Jays GDT: 2024 v4 |Mon, Jun 17 | vs BOS | 7pm ET/4pm PT | Pivetta vs Kikuchi

[Bjindaho]

Lol, at least he’s finally showing he’s worth the price we paid to acquire him cause Sheesh that deal has not looked great

It's not as bad as some people like to make it out to be

The Jays gave up:
Gurriel 2.0fWAR
Moreno 3.2 fWAR so far

and got:
Varsho 3.8 fWAR so far

Note: Any value from Lourdes beyond last year is irrelevant because he hit open free agency where the Jays could have signed him (and chose not to).

Also, the difference in control is 2 years (Varsho is a Jay until 2027 whereas Moreno is a Dback until 2029)

 

[Kurtz]

It's not as bad as some people like to make it out to be

The Jays gave up:
Gurriel 2.0fWAR
Moreno 3.2 fWAR so far

and got:
Varsho 3.8 fWAR so far

Note: Any value from Lourdes beyond last year is irrelevant because he hit open free agency where the Jays could have signed him (and chose not to).

Also, the difference in control is 2 years (Varsho is a Jay until 2027 whereas Moreno is a Dback until 2029)

The fact that Moreno is 24 and Varsho 27 aside (with the former playing less games as well), your highlighted sentence would only be correct if a random free agent always had an equal chance of signing with any of the 30 MLB teams, which we know is not the case. Team and player familiarity almost always give the incumbent team an edge in free agency.

 

[Bjindaho]

The fact that Moreno is 24 and Varsho 27 aside, your highlighted sentence would only be correct if a random free agent always had an equal chance of signing with any of the 30 MLB teams, which we know is not the case. Team and player familiarity almost always give the incumbent team an edge in free agency.

The Jays had no interest in signing Lourdes, which is why he was in the trade. If he and Moreno were Jays last year, he walks at the end of the year. Arizona didn't need to take an outfielder back.

That's why the trade is only fairly evaluated using Gurriel from last year (the term Arizona acquired).

Again, personally, I wouldn't have made the trade knowing that KK was available. I also wouldn't have traded Hernandez for Swanson (because of fit). I would have figured out some scenario where Lourdes still goes, but for relief help (and not including Moreno).

 

[tmlms13]

It's not as bad as some people like to make it out to be

The Jays gave up:
Gurriel 2.0fWAR
Moreno 3.2 fWAR so far

and got:
Varsho 3.8 fWAR so far

Note: Any value from Lourdes beyond last year is irrelevant because he hit open free agency where the Jays could have signed him (and chose not to).

Also, the difference in control is 2 years (Varsho is a Jay until 2027 whereas Moreno is a Dback until 2029)

You'll also need to compare one of Jansen or Kirk with Varsho.

One of those 3 was getting traded. Moreno was going to get the most return I'm sure that's why the picked him. Not because he was the worst player of the 3

 

[Kurtz]

Also, using FWAR for catchers misses some of the picture. For example, Moreno has a cannon for an arm, which discourages the running game against him. This is valuable but is not captured in FWar.

 

[Bjindaho]

You'll also need to compare one of Jansen or Kirk with Varsho.

One of those 3 was getting traded. Moreno was going to get the most return I'm sure that's why the picked him. Not because he was the worst player of the 3

But in the scenario where the Jays don't make the Varsho trade, they trade a catcher with the possibility of being the seller (and taking prospect(s) back.

 

[Kurtz]

You'll also need to compare one of Jansen or Kirk with Varsho.

One of those 3 was getting traded. Moreno was going to get the most return I'm sure that's why the picked him. Not because he was the worst player of the 3

True but Kirk was always the obvious guy to trade. He had good value at the time and his longevity for the position was always in question. Jano-Moreno just made tons of sense.

 

[Discoverer]

The fact that Moreno is 24 and Varsho 27 aside (with the former playing less games as well), your highlighted sentence would only be correct if a random free agent always had an equal chance of signing with any of the 30 MLB teams, which we know is not the case. Team and player familiarity almost always give the incumbent team an edge in free agency.

I don't think the "less games" part is particularly relevant because, as a catcher, he's naturally going to play less. For Moreno, a full season is ~120 games. For Varsho, it's 160.

To this point, the Jays haven't lost anything by trading Moreno. He and Kirk have been pretty similar overall, both should be backing up Jansen, and neither has hit well enough the last two years to DH when they're not catching. Meh. Meanwhile, Arizona guaranteed Gurriel $42 million and so far he's been slightly better than Springer this year. Why would we view that contract as a missed opportunity?

Maybe Moreno breaks out at some point and makes the Jays regret it, but so far there's nothing to regret. The Moreno and Teoscar trades didn't make the Jays worse last year, and so far this year they've made them significantly better.

The real problem with management is that they moved in a more defense-first direction and then haven't done nearly enough to replace the offense.

 

[Bjindaho]

I don't think the "less games" part is particularly relevant because, as a catcher, he's naturally going to play less. For Moreno, a full season is ~120 games. For Varsho, it's 160.

To this point, the Jays haven't lost anything by trading Moreno. He and Kirk have been pretty similar overall, both should be backing up Jansen, and neither has hit well enough the last two years to DH when they're not catching. Meh. Meanwhile, Arizona guaranteed Gurriel $42 million and so far he's been slightly better than Springer this year. Why would we view that contract as a missed opportunity?

Maybe Moreno breaks out at some point and makes the Jays regret it, but so far there's nothing to regret. The Moreno and Teoscar trades didn't make the Jays worse last year, and so far this year they've made them significantly better.

The real problem with management is that they moved in a more defense-first direction and then haven't done nearly enough to replace the offense.

My issue with the Teo trade is that that we signed KK. My second issue with the Teo trade is that we didn't sign him this year.

I like Swanson. I like what he does. I didn't like trading Teo because he was the thumper. After we discovered that the difference in how the outfield plays defensively isn't significant, bringing back Teo was the move to make (5.5 million more this year than IKF and KK).

 

[tmlms13]

True but Kirk was always the obvious guy to trade. He had good value at the time and his longevity for the position was always in question. Jano-Moreno just made tons of sense.

I would think (or at least hope) every team they talked to started with we'll give you Kirk and Lourdes.

But ended with we only want Moreno or else you get peanuts or rentals

 

[Eyedea]

Also, using FWAR for catchers misses some of the picture. For example, Moreno has a cannon for an arm, which discourages the running game against him. This is valuable but is not captured in FWar.

He’s caught 8/23 runners this year. Kirk’s caught 8/24. Even if he’s facing more runners per appearance than Moreno he’s not faring poorly. Plus we all know the running game can be vastly impacted by the pitcher. Gausman, Manoah, and Bassitt are some of the worst pitchers at holding runners.

Since 2023 Kirk is ranked first in DRS (Moreno is 2nd), 5th in framing, and 2nd in cumulative defensive value behind Patrick Bailey. For someone that has such big question marks surrounding his longterm ability, it’s easy to see that he’s still one of the absolute best catchers defensively. Plus his offence has picked up in limited ABs since Jansen has returned.

 

[Kurtz]

He’s caught 8/23 runners this year. Kirk’s caught 8/24. Even if he’s facing more runners per appearance than Moreno he’s not faring poorly. Plus we all know the running game can be vastly impacted by the pitcher. Gausman, Manoah, and Bassitt are some of the worst pitchers at holding runners.

Since 2023 Kirk is ranked first in DRS (Moreno is 2nd), 5th in framing, and 2nd in cumulative defensive value behind Patrick Bailey. For someone that has such big question marks surrounding his longterm ability, it’s easy to see that he’s still one of the absolute best catchers defensively. Plus his offence has picked up in limited ABs since Jansen has returned.

Kirk's great at framing, there's no question, which is where I wager most of his DRS is accrued. That skill will be rendered useless likely 2 years from now when robo-umps are in.

In terms of controlling the running game, Kirk is career 22%, his 33% this year seems to be an outlier. Moreno led the league at 39% last year and is at 35% this year. We can see that he has a rocket for arm independent of who is pitching. You can also see with the numbers you've provided that runners attempt to steal less against Moreno than they do Kirk (Moreno started more games).

 

[Discoverer]

Kirk's great at framing, there's no question, which is where I wager most of his DRS is accrued. That skill will be rendered useless likely 2 years from now when robo-umps are in.

In terms of controlling the running game, Kirk is career 22%, his 33% this year seems to be an outlier. Moreno led the league at 39% last year and is at 35% this year. We can see that he has a rocket for arm independent of who is pitching. You can also see with the numbers you've provided that runners attempt to steal less against Moreno than they do Kirk (Moreno started more games).

His defensive value is from a combination of elite framing and blocking. He's generally been around average throwing, but this year he's been very good. He's just an elite all-around defender.

Other than being an excellent defender, Moreno hasn't been particularly close to the player we all wanted him to be so far. The offensive profile has been almost identical to Kirk's (great approach and contact ability at the plate, brutal contact quality and zero power) and even the defense hasn't been quite as good. He's much faster, but even then it's not an actual strength since his sprint speed is the same as Vlad's.

 

[Eyedea]

Kirk's great at framing, there's no question, which is where I wager most of his DRS is accrued. That skill will be rendered useless likely 2 years from now when robo-umps are in.

In terms of controlling the running game, Kirk is career 22%, his 33% this year seems to be an outlier. Moreno led the league at 39% last year and is at 35% this year. We can see that he has a rocket for arm independent of who is pitching. You can also see with the numbers you've provided that runners attempt to steal less against Moreno than they do Kirk (Moreno started more games).

Well this is wrong as DRS captures everything a catcher does defensively except framing. Baseball Reference’s dWAR is captured using DRS, while Fangraphs uses a combination of DRS and framing to calculate a catcher’s defensive value. So he’s the best in terms of saving runs AND one of the best framers in baseball. To my knowledge the only element of a catcher’s defence that has no tracking is game management/pitch calling (though rCERA might be trying to do this?).

Edit: on second thought it looks like DRS does track strike zone runs saved, but it differs slightly to FG’s framing metric. But the point is his game calling and blocking are elite enough to offset any impacts an automated strike zone might cause.

And like I already said, base-stealing primarily falls on the pitcher’s ability to control the running game, on top of the baserunner’s ability to run. But if we do track his rSB which calculates how he fares compared to the average catcher at preventing steals, then we can see that over his career he’s been fairly average (+2). Not a negative, though not a significant plus like other elements of his defence. Even with less starts Kirk is the best rated defender in the league this year while Moreno is 10th.

 

[arso40]

Jays weren’t getting Varsho by giving up Kirk.

Funny thing is though, this year Moreno and Kirk have basically the same WAR.

More than what?

The Jays traded the top prospect in baseball for Varsho. They weren't getting him for an established catcher with questions around his longterm durability.

I hear you but he was coming off an Allstar season for Moreno we shoulda got one of the younger outfielders maybe the right fielder

 

[Discoverer]

I hear you but he was coming off an Allstar season for Moreno we shoulda got one of the younger outfielders maybe the right fielder

Jake McCarthy? That would have been a lot worse than getting Varsho.

 

[Eyedea]

I hear you but he was coming off an Allstar season for Moreno we shoulda got one of the younger outfielders maybe the right fielder

Getting Alek Thomas or Jake McCarthy would’ve been a bigger L than Varsho and I was a fan of both at the time too.

 

[arso40]

Jake McCarthy? That would have been a lot worse than getting Varsho.

No I was thinking alek Thomas hindsight 20/20 we'd still have Moreno though

 

[MS]

I don't think the call to sell high on Moreno was inherently that bad - I think he was a bit overrated as a prospect and that his lack of power in MLB was predictable - if Kirk had maintained the 130 OPS+ form that he'd shown to that point in his career.

The fact that Kirk has turned into this powerless slap-hitter is what's really screwed things up.

 

[Discoverer]

I don't think the call to sell high on Moreno was inherently that bad - I think he was a bit overrated as a prospect and that his lack of power in MLB was predictable - if Kirk had maintained the 130 OPS+ form that he'd shown to that point in his career.

The fact that Kirk has turned into this powerless slap-hitter is what's really screwed things up.

But, at least to this point, it's not like the power loss has removed all of Kirk's value. So far, it's just dropped him from being a clear top five catcher in the league to the level of a guy like... well... Moreno.

 

[MS]

But, at least to this point, it's not like the power loss has removed all of Kirk's value. So far, it's just dropped him from being a clear top five catcher in the league to the level of a guy like... well... Moreno.

If you gave me a choice between Moreno and Kirk going forward right now I'd take Moreno and it wouldn't be particularly close.

 

[Eyedea]

If you gave me a choice between Moreno and Kirk going forward right now I'd take Moreno and it wouldn't be particularly close.

Younger, more athletic, more control, it’s an easy choice. The argument as to who is actually better, however, has still yet to be determined.

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

But, at least to this point, it's not like the power loss has removed all of Kirk's value. So far, it's just dropped him from being a clear top five catcher in the league to the level of a guy like... well... Moreno.

I didn't realize how similar Moreno and Kirk have been with the bat this year. Plate discipline, contact numbers, power (or lack thereof), all the expected stats, etc. The only big difference is batted ball where Moreno is killing worms at an elite level while Kirk has been a pop up machine

 

[Eyedea]

I didn't realize how similar Moreno and Kirk have been with the bat this year. Plate discipline, contact numbers, power (or lack thereof), all the expected stats, etc. The only big difference is batted ball where Moreno is killing worms at an elite level while Kirk has been a pop up machine

Kirk’s been trending up though. Look at that EV, LA and LD rate! Only a matter of time before the numbers materialize. In fact those first three series are the big culprit of his season, except he hasn’t really been given the opportunity to play full time since then because Jansen has been so good. But honestly, he should be in the lineup more frequently and Jansen should be the DH (or vice versa) because Kirk’s been better than Turner.

Since April 8, Kirk’s EV is 92.6, LA is 10.5, 42.9% of his BIPs have been hard hits, he’s only had 2 infield fly balls, and he has 11 LDs (23%).

Turner over that same stretch still gets plenty of LDs, but everything has been so soft.

 

[canucksfan]

Kirk’s been trending up though. Look at that EV, LA and LD rate! Only a matter of time before the numbers materialize. In fact those first three series are the big culprit of his season, except he hasn’t really been given the opportunity to play full time since then because Jansen has been so good. But honestly, he should be in the lineup more frequently and Jansen should be the DH (or vice versa) because Kirk’s been better than Turner.

Since April 8, Kirk’s EV is 92.6, LA is 10.5, 42.9% of his BIPs have been hard hits, he’s only had 2 infield fly balls, and he has 11 LDs (23%).

Turner over that same stretch still gets plenty of LDs, but everything has been so soft.

Did a quick check and Kirk has a 118 wRC in the month of May. That's really good.

The problem is the older players on the team. Springer, KK, and Turner have sucked. I didn't like the Turner signing and he's been worse than I thought, KK wasn't needed. Vogelbach needed to go 8 weeks ago. As has been said many times by you and others, it's still mind-boggling they don't give the younger hitters a chance.