Prospect Info: 2024 NHL Entry Draft (Ducks pick #3, They didn’t drop! OMG It’s a Miracle!)

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lwvs84

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We’re definitely getting it this year because it’s not a generational player
Not in a year that there's a clear 1st overall, especially if Chitcago finishes last. NHL... er lottery luck... won't pass up an opportunity to give them a 1st overall that doesn't count against the number they can win. Ducks will win one in a year that is a bad year (no top end talent) and there's like 3-4 guys that could go #1.
 

Hockey Duckie

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Not in a year that there's a clear 1st overall, especially if Chitcago finishes last. NHL... er lottery luck... won't pass up an opportunity to give them a 1st overall that doesn't count against the number they can win. Ducks will win one in a year that is a bad year (no top end talent) and there's like 3-4 guys that could go #1.

Does feel as scripted as penalties against us vs non-call penalties against the opponents.
 
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lwvs84

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Does feel as scripted as penalties against us vs non-call penalties against the opponents.
I know, or am pretty sure, that it's not rigged (I was way more sure of it before last draft), but it just feels like it has to be. Over the last 20 years, the top 11 (approximately 1/3 of the league) most valuable teams have 13 1st overall picks. The bottom 11 have 4. Over that time, the O6 have 5 of those #1 picks. So the original 6 has more #1 overall picks than the bottom 11 teams combined over the last 20 years (and just for #12-15 don't have a #1 pick in that time either, so they have more #1 picks than the bottom 15 teams combined).

Top 11 teams:
Toronto x1
NY Rangers x1
Montreal x1
Los Angeles x0
Boston x0
Chitcago x2
Edmonton x4
Philadelphia x0
Washington x1
NY Islanders x1
New Jersey x2

Bottom 11 teams:
Arizona x0
Buffalo x2
Columbus x0
Florida x1
Winnipeg x0
Carolina x0
San Jose x0
Anaheim x0
Ottawa x0
Trashville x0
St. Louis x1

If you look at lottery wins (moving up/staying the same) since 2016 (when it turned into 3 teams then 2 teams), top 11 teams have won 12 lottery moves, bottom 11 have 6.

If you can't tell, I'm really bored listening to this meeting that I don't need to be a part of.
 

Smirnov2Chistov

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It really is looking bleak for us. Ottawa will probably leapfrog us in some capacity with about four games in hand.

Would love a chance at that #1 but Chicago and SJ are right (annoyingly) there
 

Zegs2sendhelp

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It really is looking bleak for us. Ottawa will probably leapfrog us in some capacity with about four games in hand.

Would love a chance at that #1 but Chicago and SJ are right (annoyingly) there
not so worried about draft position…. We’re going to end up with a high pick and plenty of help available to draft
 
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TheGoodShepard1

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Ducks are currently holding the 4th pre-lottery pick, but Ottawa (3rd pick) has 4 games in hand and only 1 point back, so we're essentially going to be at the 3rd pick. Next up with the 5th is Columbus. we have 2 games in hand but back 6 points. Buffalo is up 9 points and we have 1 game in hand. I think we could realistically (at best) pass one of Sens or BJ's if we get healthy and go on a little win streak. That would leave us the 4th pick pre-lottery at worst and most likely the 3rd pick. After the lottery, that would put us at the #4/5 pick. I think there have been 4 players (Celebrini, Lindstrom, Dickinson, Levshunov) talked about? So a good possibility one of them is available at that spot.

On a side note, how good of a prospect is Celebrini supposed to be? I know not Bedard level, but is he Carlsson/Fantilli tier?

I honestly wouldn’t bet on that, Ottawa is pretty bad. But yes, we’re probably looking at another top 5 selection
 

GunnarStahl

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Oct 13, 2020
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Holy crap Connelly is high. To guarantee getting Levshunov the Ducks will need the 2nd pick, to have a chance they will need a top 5 pick.
 
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Gliff

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Yakemchuk on the way up. I expect him to be in the top 4 defensemen off the board.

Eiserman is dropping like a rock. I doubt he goes top 10 unless he absolutely just destroys the U-18.
Catton not in the top 8 is shocking.
 
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CrazyDuck4u

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It really is looking bleak for us. Ottawa will probably leapfrog us in some capacity with about four games in hand.

Would love a chance at that #1 but Chicago and SJ are right (annoyingly) there
They are rigging it again for chicagos favor.. For sure.. They gotta give Bedard someone to play with.
 

Gliff

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It's crazy to me that people actually think the NHL rigs the lottery. Do some research. They are so transparent about the process, even having reporters and team representatives in the room.

Not to mention Ernst and Young, an accounting firm that does 50 billion in revenue a year (almost 10x the NHLs revenue), auditing the process every step of the way.

If you actually think that and not just memeing then I lose pretty much all respect for your opinion.
 

Zegs2sendhelp

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Yakemchuk on the way up. I expect him to be in the top 4 defensemen off the board.

Eiserman is dropping like a rock. I doubt he goes top 10 unless he absolutely just destroys the U-18.
Catton not in the top 8 is shocking.

Catton is going to drop and whoever gets him is going to be very happy to get him at that spot(benson last year).

I like Eiserman, but the addition of gauthier at expense of drysdale makes me think we have a few dmen we really like in this draft. Also feel the type of forward we need now we can find via trade
 
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Anaheim4ever

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Interesting list...pretty close to what we were discussing yesterday as the top 4-5.
Interesting to see a gap between Lev and Dicky. Lev I saw listed as 4 pounds heavier than Dicky but 1 inch shorter, so Lev is less wirey and more NHL frame and is RD.
 

Hockey Duckie

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Interesting list...pretty close to what we were discussing yesterday as the top 4-5.

Hemming was my sleeper pick for a top-6, scoring forward in Sept/Oct.

Hemming ranked #5 on EU list is a huge jump! Early mocks in like Sept had Hemming in the late 20s, early 30s. I was hoping we could nab him with a late, first round pick from a future Rico trade, but it seems like he will be selected in the teens. I didn't think Hemming would be ranked above MBN (Brandsegg-Nygard) after MBN's WJC-20 showing with team Norway.
 

Hockey Duckie

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Interesting to see a gap between Lev and Dicky. Lev I saw listed as 4 pounds heavier than Dicky but 1 inch shorter, so Lev is less wirey and more NHL frame and is RD.

According to a Dec 6 the Athletic article, Lev is buffed out and continues to buff out in the weight room.

 

Gliff

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Lindstrom is gonna be interesting to me. It wouldn't surprise me if he gets picked top 3 and rushed to the NHL and busts.
I have little interest in him in the top 5. I would not want to pick a guy that high where his worst attribute is his hockey sense.


So using last 5 years numbers (I took the PPG and extrapolated a full season for the 2 shortened seasons) here is the pace they will have to finish the season to finish in each of the top 10 picks:
PickPace
1​
52​
2​
68​
3​
72​
4​
75​
5​
80​
6​
85​
7​
89​
8​
92​
9​
94​
10​
98​


The Ducks current pace is 59 points. Unless they have an incredible turn around, I think it is safe to say a top 5 pick is all but guaranteed. Not to mention they are going to get worse when Henrique and Bush (and whoever else) gets moved at the deadline.
Just an update on this. Here is where we are at now:
Using last 5 years numbers (I took the PPG and extrapolated a full season for the 2 shortened seasons) here is the pace they will have to finish the season to finish in each of the top 10 picks:

PickPace
1​
53​
2​
71​
3​
74​
4​
78​
5​
84​
6​
89​
7​
94​
8​
98​
9​
100​
10​
104​
We can probably cross 7-10 off at this point as even remotely possible lol.
 

Zegs2sendhelp

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Anaheim4ever

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lwvs84

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Yeah definitely sounds like he's going #2 overall. I suspect SJ wins the #2 pick and Chicago gets #1.
I think Chicago gets #2 so that they have the chance at #1 next year (isn't it Bedard's cousin and another virtual guarantee at a super star?). A team can't move up to #1 more than twice in a 5 year period, right?
 
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All Mighty

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I think Chicago gets #2 so that they have the chance at #1 next year (isn't it Bedard's cousin and another virtual guarantee at a super star?). A team can't move up to #1 more than twice in a 5 year period, right?
Gavin McKenna (Bedard’s cousin) isn’t draft eligible until 2026, so 3 drafts from now. Next year’s likely #1 pick is James Hagens.
 

Mr Rogers

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Have there been any questions about Eiserman’s hockey IQ? If not, there is no reason he shouldn’t go very high imo.

Poor defensive game and being too much of a shooter (not using teammates enough) are not valid reasons for him to drastically fall. It’s crazy some of the defensive expectations some have prospects.
 
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