2024 NHL Draft: WE DID IT, CELEBRINI IS OURS!!!

[Gecklund]

I would move the NJD 2nd to guarantee Buium/Yakemchuk/Catton if one of them was there at 9th/10th and we were at 11. I don’t want to be in a “Mintyukov goes one spot before us” situation again.

Eiserman will definitely be the wildcard. I hope someone takes him in the top-10. My tiers are starting to solidify even more as we approach the end of the season:

Celebrini

Levshunov-Dickinson

Catton-Demidov-Lindstrom-Buium

Yakemchuk-Silayev

Iginla-Parekh-Eiserman-Helenius


Interestingly, I typically have good luck simming tankathon. I frequently win 1OA ~40% of the time.

I’d move Demidov up one, Parekh up one and Buium down one but not a lot of separation between the tiers honestly more just feelings for me.

 

[coooldude]

Big issue with the 30-40 tier to me is I don’t love a lot of those guys. Steep drop off around 20.

For sure, but that's why I'd rather have two lotto tickets 20-60, rather than losing one of those just to move up a spot or two. It depends on who's still available at 9-10, per Jux... If Yak is there, I personally would want him. I actually still have the feeling he'll go higher than people think, possibly top 5.

 

[Gecklund]

For sure, but that's why I'd rather have two lotto tickets 20-60, rather than losing one of those just to move up a spot or two. It depends on who's still available at 9-10, per Jux... If Yak is there, I personally would want him. I actually still have the feeling he'll go higher than people think, possibly top 5.

I mean that’s what I said too. I did forget Yakemchuk in my original list cause it was just off of memory but I’ll be honest I can almost guarantee one of the guys I’d want are going to be there because I think there’s 10

 

[Juxtaposer]

I’d move Demidov up one, Parekh up one and Buium down one but not a lot of separation between the tiers honestly more just feelings for me.

Yeah, my tiers have definitely shaken out primarily on vibes if I’m honest—I’m no pro scout.

Buium is a case where I really have to take a good hard look at my personal bias. What I mean by that is that if Buium were two inches taller and right-handed, I might rank him 2nd overall. Why? Because he’s the only defenseman I’ve scouted this year that I never feel like I have to make excuses for. I never have to say “well, he could be great if he ironed out these five flaws in his game” like I have to do with Levshunov, Dickinson, Yakemchuk, and Parekh. As much as I’d love to have all four of those guys in my prospect pool, part of me has to convince myself that I like them enough to draft them were we’ll be picking.

Not to say that Buium is perfect, but he really has zero glaring flaws. He’s one of the better defensive defensemen on that list, if not the best, and his offense speaks for itself. His hockey IQ is the best amongst the defensemen in the class IMO and he is calm and collected and calculating.

So why am I hesitant to rank him higher than ~7/8? Because he’s not 6’2” and right-handed. Scary how ingrained that bias is.

For sure, but that's why I'd rather have two lotto tickets 20-60, rather than losing one of those just to move up a spot or two. It depends on who's still available at 9-10, per Jux... If Yak is there, I personally would want him. I actually still have the feeling he'll go higher than people think, possibly top 5.

Wouldn’t shock me at all if Yakemchuk went top-5, but I wouldn’t want to be the team that did that.

 

[coooldude]

So why am I hesitant to rank him higher than ~7/8? Because he’s not 6’2” and right-handed. Scary how ingrained that bias is.


Wouldn’t shock me at all if Yakemchuk went top-5, but I wouldn’t want to be the team that did that.

I honestly really hope he has an excellent tourney and they diligence him and realize he's not done growing. Smith and he are buddies and I agree about his size. If he tears up the tourney and has some growth left, I'm actually far more excited about him than Lev and if Grier and co decide they like him enough to take him high, then I'll be super stoked.

On Yak, I think there's risk, but I also have the vague feeling that the Ducks take him at 3-5 and then he turns into a really annoying stud (as we have discussed on his thread - the RD Corey Perry of our nightmares).

 

[Juxtaposer]

I honestly really hope he has an excellent tourney and they diligence him and realize he's not done growing. Smith and he are buddies and I agree about his size. If he tears up the tourney and has some growth left, I'm actually far more excited about him than Lev and if Grier and co decide they like him enough to take him high, then I'll be super stoked.

On Yak, I think there's risk, but I also have the vague feeling that the Ducks take him at 3-5 and then he turns into a really annoying stud (as we have discussed on his thread - the RD Corey Perry of our nightmares).

Agreed on both cases. If Grier has the guts to draft Buium at 2nd or 3rd, I’ll back his play.

Man, if I were Grier, my number one goal would be to plant a double agent or a bug or something in the Ducks drafting room. They’re so, so good at nailing these high draft picks. I can definitely imagine them taking Yakemchuk at like 4th overall and him panning out as a nastier Burns type. I’d be over the moon if we could land him with the Pens pick but like you said, I’d guess that he’s going in the 5-7 range. I’d personally rank him 8th in this class.

 

[Jargon]

Interestingly, I typically have good luck simming tankathon. I frequently win 1OA ~40% of the time.

Can we crowdfund you a trip to the lottery drawing?

 

[Barrie22]

1st time trying. Sharks 1, Devils 2
2nd time, Ottawa 1, Blackhawks 2, Sharks 3
3rd time, Sharks 1, Arizona 2, Islanders 3
4th time, Seattle 1, Anaheim 2, Sharks 3
5th time, Seattle 1, Sharks 2, Hawks 3
6th time, bluejackets 1, Chicago 2, Sharks 3
7th time, bluejackets 1, Seattle 2, Sharks 3
8th time, Sharks 1, Devils 2, Hawks 3
9th time, Hawks 1, bluejackets 2, Sharks 3
10th time, penguins 1, Seattle 2, Sharks 3

 

[fasterthanlight]

Can we crowdfund you a trip to the lottery drawing?

I have a friend who works at the NHL. I asked him to rig things for the sharks. To my surprise, he told me that this was impossible, he wouldn't do it, and "you know I work in marketing?"

 

[TheBeard]

I have a friend who works at the NHL. I asked him to rig things for the sharks. To my surprise, he told me that this was impossible, he wouldn't do it, and "you know I work in marketing?"

Did he wink after he said the word "impossible"?

 

[cheechoo]

Big issue with the 30-40 tier to me is I don’t love a lot of those guys. Steep drop off around 20.

How rigid is your tier gap at 20 and who would you say is the edge case? Or is that flexible.

I have one at ~14.

For me it's

T1 Celebrini

T2A Demidov
T2B Lindstrom, Catton, Buium, Levshunov, Dickinson
T2C Yakemchuk, Parekh, Eiserman, Silayev, Iginla, MBN, Helenius

And then from the next grouping it's extremely interchangeable up until about 40. The forwards taper off pretty heavily, but the defensive depth runs strong all the way into the middle of round 2.

 

[Gecklund]

How rigid is your tier gap at 20 and who would you say is the edge case? Or is that flexible.

I have one at ~15.

For me it's

T1 Celebrini

T2A Demidov
T2B Lindstrom, Catton, Lindstrom, Buium, Levshunov, Dickinson
T2C Yakemchuk, Parekh, Eiserman, Silayev, Iginla, MBN, Helenius

And then from the next grouping it's extremely interchangeable up until about 40. The forwards taper off pretty heavily, but the defensive depth runs strong all the way into the middle of round 2.

20 was because I don’t have the exact number on hand. It’s somewhere from 15-25.

 

[cheechoo]

20 was because I don’t have the exact number on hand. It’s somewhere from 15-25.

Some of the defenders like Freij and Wallenius have rather similar skillsets to someone like Buium for example. Not as polished and advanced in the offensive zone but all of the athletic tools and gifted skating ability.

I expect to see the gap shrink between a lot of these Euro defenseman and the ones in NA after the exposure at the U18s.

 

[cheechoo]

Not super Sharks relevant with where we're picking but Greentree has such an impressive statistical draft profile.

Ranks really highly alongside Demidov and Lindstrom in terms of generating high quality chances. Captain of Spokane with 90 points in 64 games and leading the Chiefs in scoring by 24 (no help).

Sorta Musty-ish. Big skilled body, skating question marks. 6'2/6'3 210+lbs



Deserves borderline top 10 buzz imo.

 

[TheWayToRefJose]

I am convinced they have a random seeding problem. I've seen multiple instances where Sharks are stuck at 3OA for like 20 spins, or the same team will win 2OA like 5 times in a row. Better to just trust that you have to flip heads twice and let the hockey gods decide from there.

It’s a computer problem. Most “random” generated computer numbers aren’t actually random. You actually need dedicated hardware to generate a true random number.

Pseudorandom number generator - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[TheBeard]

How rigid is your tier gap at 20 and who would you say is the edge case? Or is that flexible.

I have one at ~14.

For me it's

T1 Celebrini

T2A Demidov
T2B Lindstrom, Catton, Buium, Levshunov, Dickinson
T2C Yakemchuk, Parekh, Eiserman, Silayev, Iginla, MBN, Helenius

And then from the next grouping it's extremely interchangeable up until about 40. The forwards taper off pretty heavily, but the defensive depth runs strong all the way into the middle of round 2.

What are your thoughts on Hage?

 

[cheechoo]

What are your thoughts on Hage?

Another one I really hope to see at the U18 worlds. I haven't been able to watch him very much but his skating with the puck jumps off the screen in the few times I have. Seems like the total offensive package and has a lot of swagger too. Not afraid to drive centrally with the puck.

For a loose comp I see a Kyle Connor prototype. But I watched Connor much more his DY at Youngstown and he was a clearcut star even then.

 

[coooldude]

Yes,

It’s a computer problem. Most “random” generated computer numbers aren’t actually random. You actually need dedicated hardware to generate a true random number.

Pseudorandom number generator - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Yes, that was my point.

 

[Grinner]

I only tried Tankathon twice
1st time it took 13 times for the Sharks to land the 1st overall pick. The 2nd attempt ee hit the top pick the very 1st attempt.
Interesting, it gave us the exact two 2nd rounder defenders in Elrick and Friej

 

[fasterthanlight]

It’s a computer problem. Most “random” generated computer numbers aren’t actually random. You actually need dedicated hardware to generate a true random number.

Pseudorandom number generator - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

It's possible that that site's random number generator is bad, but more likely is they're using a standard library, which isn't technically "random", but, has been rigorously benchmarked to simulate what true randomness looks like.

I think a more plausible explanation is that human perception of randomness is notoriously uncalibrated. For every "rare" occurrence where the sharks don't win the lottery for 10 rolls in a row (which isn't even that rare! .75**10 = 6% chance that the sharks don't win in 10 rolls in a row) there are non-notable rolls where the sharks do win in that streak at the expected rate (2.5/10 times). It "feels" wrong, but, true randomness and accurate simulations of true randomness often "feel" not random.

If I were more bored, I could simulate lotteries from the site, and I'd be quite surprised if the result, with many samples, deviated much from the stated probabilities. More likely is that our feelings/anxiety about the sharks are coloring our already skewed perception of how randomness "feels"

 

[Juxtaposer]

Some of the defenders like Freij and Wallenius have rather similar skillsets to someone like Buium for example. Not as polished and advanced in the offensive zone but all of the athletic tools and gifted skating ability.

I expect to see the gap shrink between a lot of these Euro defenseman and the ones in NA after the exposure at the U18s.

Definitely. Willander went from a late 1st to 11th overall purely because of the U18 last year… someone will rise into the top-half of the 1st due to the U18.

 

[Hodge]

I think Lindstrom would be an exciting and much needed addition to our prospect pool if we don't draft 1st overall.

 

[coooldude]

I think Lindstrom would be an exciting and much needed addition to our prospect pool if we don't draft 1st overall.

If they do their diligence and decide that this new secretive back injury is not a big deal, I think there's a serious chance this is the way Grier goes at 2-3. Just gotta hope and trust they're good talent evaluators.

 

[Hodge]

If they do their diligence and decide that this new secretive back injury is not a big deal, I think there's a serious chance this is the way Grier goes at 2-3. Just gotta hope and trust they're good talent evaluators.

It would be a pure upside play which IMO is what we need at this stage of the rebuild, regardless of position.

 

[Barrie22]

If they do their diligence and decide that this new secretive back injury is not a big deal, I think there's a serious chance this is the way Grier goes at 2-3. Just gotta hope and trust they're good talent evaluators.

That kind of injury could seriously hurt his draft placement.