2024 NHL Draft: WE DID IT, CELEBRINI IS OURS!!!

[SjMilhouse]

Not getting the Pens pick = having 3 unprotected 1sts in 2025

Then it's Pens vs Knights for the cup next year ha

 

[Juxtaposer]

And there it is. I’d take him with the Pens pick, but he’d better not be in serious consideration for us if we’re 2nd or 3rd overall.

 

[Kcoyote3]

And there it is. I’d take him with the Pens pick, but he’d better not be in serious consideration for us if we’re 2nd or 3rd overall.

100% agree.

 

[coooldude]

And there it is. I’d take him with the Pens pick, but he’d better not be in serious consideration for us if we’re 2nd or 3rd overall.

This is where I am on him now... early in the season when he had started really strong on points generation, was playing 15-20min a night, and was developing quickly, I was super excited. Since then, he's gone nearly nonexistent on the scoresheets (even on stats like SOG), and he's been playing more like 8-13min a night, sometimes 7th D minutes. Most scouting reports (and watching) show that he has a fairly low panic threshold and although he's extremely mobile and active in the D zone for his size, and is pretty good at shutting plays down, he's not bringing much on the offensive end and his puck retrieval / decision-making on breakouts with the puck in his own zone or neutral zone needs a lot of development.

He's more of a Simashev than a Hedman. That plus the 3 years in the KHL (although less concerning being with Larionov on Torpedo rather than in the shitshow that is the SKA organization like Michkov...)

The other wildcard now at the 2-3 spot is that Lindstrom is a month overdue on returning from his wrist injury and may be dealing with a back injury. If it was just a wrist injury, no big deal, but a quiet back injury at age 17? yikes... terrifying.

Putting all this together, I'd be surprised if we drafted Demidov but I guess I'd get on the train. I'd be really upset if we drafted Eiserman at 2-3... seems like he just has too many risk factors for a well rounded NHL game and the newest Athletic and Hockey Writers profiles don't make me feel any better. That leaves Levshunov, Dickinson, Buium, Parekh, Yakemchuk, Catton. I don't think we'll draft Catton as he looks too much like Smith/Eklund. I don't think we'll draft Parekh or Buium that high either. It'll be Levshunov or Dickinson with an extremely outside shot at Yakemchuk and probably that's too risky too. Probably it'll be Lev unless the Sharks team doesn't like what people are worried about on the decision-making and processing speed in the D zone.

 

[Hodge]

Why is Hedman the standard? He's literally the best defenseman of the past 15 years. That would be like putting Celebrini down because he doesn't measure up to Crosby.

 

[coooldude]

Why is Hedman the standard? He's literally the best defenseman of the past 15 years. That would be like putting Celebrini down because he doesn't measure up to Crosby.

Hedman is the ceiling people were comparing Silayev to earlier on in the year. A better high end outcome comp right now might be Tyler Myers. Great skater, big, but more of a complementary D-focused 2nd pairing piece than a top pairing centerpiece.

If that's the profile, Silayev could be a great player... but probably not an exciting pick at 2/3.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Hedman is the ceiling people were comparing Silayev to earlier on in the year. A better high end outcome comp right now might be Tyler Myers. Great skater, big, but more of a complementary D-focused 2nd pairing piece than a top pairing centerpiece.

If that's the profile, Silayev could be a great player... but probably not an exciting pick at 2/3.

I think Zadorov is a better comp—Myers is way too chaotic and Silayev seems low-event and boring.

Again, Silayev is likely a solid future middle-pairing guy, but I don’t see top-pairing. I’m wary of tanking a guy high just because he’s big and skates well.

 

[Hodge]

Hedman is the ceiling people were comparing Silayev to earlier on in the year. A better high end outcome comp right now might be Tyler Myers. Great skater, big, but more of a complementary D-focused 2nd pairing piece than a top pairing centerpiece.

If that's the profile, Silayev could be a great player... but probably not an exciting pick at 2/3.

I feel like every tall Euro defenseman with NHL potential just gets compared to Hedman and it skews expectations. Myers would be an awful outcome but Silayev doesn't need to turn into Hedman to be worth a 2nd overall pick either.

 

[coooldude]

I think Zadorov is a better comp—Myers is way too chaotic and Silayev seems low-event and boring.

Again, Silayev is likely a solid future middle-pairing guy, but I don’t see top-pairing. I’m wary of tanking a guy high just because he’s big and skates well.

Possibly. Based on his thread and the folks who watch a lot of Torpedo, it sounds like he's a little bit exciting because of the panic factor. Hence the reduced minutes. This is a nitpick though because on the whole I am aligned with you, I don't want to take him high. It would be amazing if we got the PIT pick and he fell there though.

 

[hohosaregood]

I feel like Silayev got a huge amount of hype for being nearly PPG for the first 10 games and that's about it.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Possibly. Based on his thread and the folks who watch a lot of Torpedo, it sounds like he's a little bit exciting because of the panic factor. Hence the reduced minutes. This is a nitpick though because on the whole I am aligned with you, I don't want to take him high. It would be amazing if we got the PIT pick and he fell there though.

You’re right, but it seems to me like that’s a product of his age more than his long-term playstyle.

Like you said, it’s a nitpick and we agree on the whole. I’d love to get him at 11th and have him in the 8-9 range of my personal rankings.

 

[spintops]

Being the worst team and hopefully getting "at least" number 2 is pretty big for me. I would feel pretty good with Levshunov. Anyone after that would still be one of our top prospects, but like Will Smith last year (who was an awesome pick) he felt like a step below the top 3.

 

[sharski]

It's all misinformation

I'm now 100% confident Silayev and Lindstrom are the 2nd and 3rd best prospects in the draft

 

[CaptainShark]

I’m wary of tanking a guy high just because he’s big and skates well.

Either your spelling skills are as bad as mine or that is a nice freudian slip.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Either your spelling skills are as bad as mine or that is a nice freudian slip.

Definitely both.

 

[StanleyCup2035]

In San Jose's realm, where dreams take flight,
Tonight's the eve of a pivotal fight.
Not on the ice, but in the fates' grand scheme,
Where hopes and futures intercede.
The Sharks, they skate with purpose dire,
For in their loss, their hearts aspire
To secure the crown of NHL's plight,
The dubious honor of the season's blight.
Chicago's Blackhawks, bold and strong,
Stand as the gatekeepers, right or wrong.
In this game, a battle, a crucial test,
Where destiny's whispers won't let rest.
For Maclin Celebrini, a name well-known,
In hockey's lore, his prowess shown.
Son of Rick, of Warriors' medical fame,
A legacy poised to set aflame.
From Junior Sharks to NHL's embrace,
His journey weaves with skill and grace.
In the Celebrini Bowl, his path revealed,
Where destiny's script shall be unsealed.
Ivan, Cole, Berkly, and Zeev,
Cayden, Sam, the list we perceive.
Yet none compare to Maclin's light,
In hockey's realm, he shines so bright.
And as for Jux's heart, it's true,
Artyom Levshunov holds a view.
But in this tale, Celebrini's reign,
Shall echo louder, shall claim its gain.
So let the puck drop, let fortunes sway,
In San Jose's quest, on this fateful day.
For in their loss, a victory found,
In the echo of destiny's resounding sound.

 

[coooldude]

Bravo.

Moneypuck gives us a 52.6% chance to win. Currently a 21.4% chance to finish with the 1OA pick, with Chicago at 17.5%. we'll see how far this game swings those odds. I'm guessing pretty far.

Just in case it's not obvious, our odds for 1OA will reach 25.5% if and when we lock up finishing last. I believe the current magic number is 25 = 25 points from Chicago wins or our losses clinches last place.

 

[spintops]

I'm probably way late to the party but - I finally switched from hoping the Devils win to hoping they lose and we get a top 40 pick

 

[Jargon]

I'm probably way late to the party but - I finally switched from hoping the Devils win to hoping they lose and we get a top 40 pick

Yeah, same. Still valuable for us — either to trade up or just to get a pretty good prospect.

 

[Gecklund]

Yeah, same. Still valuable for us — either to trade up or just to get a pretty good prospect.

Yep I’d be a pretty big fan of moving the PIT pick and the NJD pick to move up a few spots to like 8 or 9 should guarantee us one of Silayev, Buium, Parekh, Dickinson, or Levshunov (if we get Celebrini) or Catton, Lindstrom, Helenius (if we don’t get Celebrini)

 

[coooldude]

Bravo.

Moneypuck gives us a 52.6% chance to win. Currently a 21.4% chance to finish with the 1OA pick, with Chicago at 17.5%. we'll see how far this game swings those odds. I'm guessing pretty far.

Just in case it's not obvious, our odds for 1OA will reach 25.5% if and when we lock up finishing last. I believe the current magic number is 25 = 25 points from Chicago wins or our losses clinches last place.

Update as the dust settles from a game 7 tank cup OT win:

Moneypuck now has us projected to finish with 50pts and Chicago with 53.5, taking into account all kinda strength of schedule, home/away, advanced stats, etc from the last 12 games. We went from 21.4% chance at 1OA post-lottery, to 22.9% just by giving one point to Chicago.

Per Tankathon, and as @Pinkfloyd noted last night, CHI has the 11th hardest schedule remaining (5 easiest games are STL, MIN, OTT, CGY, NYI, 6 games vs playoff teams). Ours is the 18th hardest schedule remaining with only 3/12 games vs LAK, EDM, DAL, and 9 winnable games vs. STL, MIN, CAL, SEA, and ARI.

It will likely be a photo finish but we definitely are in the tank lead.

I'm probably way late to the party but - I finally switched from hoping the Devils win to hoping they lose and we get a top 40 pick

Absolutely. We want Devils to lose for their pick, and also Sabres and Calgary and MIN to lose in the hopes also that PIT creeps back to 11OA. I want that, at least. Currently Moneypuck predicts PIT finishes 8th worst, so there's real work to do and I'm not hopeful for that pick. At least TBL is doing well which slightly nerfs CHI's other 1rd pick.

Yep I’d be a pretty big fan of moving the PIT pick and the NJD pick to move up a few spots to like 8 or 9 should guarantee us one of Silayev, Buium, Parekh, Dickinson, or Levshunov (if we get Celebrini) or Catton, Lindstrom, Helenius (if we don’t get Celebrini)

I'd honestly rather be a pick taker with whoever is remaining at 11-15 and have another shot at the tier around 30-40 with the Devils pick vs. sacrificing that pick to move up just a few slots.

 

[Jargon]

Just ran tankathon 10 times and the Sharks never won.

EVERYTHING IS FINE

 

[coooldude]

Just ran tankathon 10 times and the Sharks never won.

EVERYTHING IS FINE

I am convinced they have a random seeding problem. I've seen multiple instances where Sharks are stuck at 3OA for like 20 spins, or the same team will win 2OA like 5 times in a row. Better to just trust that you have to flip heads twice and let the hockey gods decide from there.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Yep I’d be a pretty big fan of moving the PIT pick and the NJD pick to move up a few spots to like 8 or 9 should guarantee us one of Silayev, Buium, Parekh, Dickinson, or Levshunov (if we get Celebrini) or Catton, Lindstrom, Helenius (if we don’t get Celebrini)

I would move the NJD 2nd to guarantee Buium/Yakemchuk/Catton if one of them was there at 9th/10th and we were at 11. I don’t want to be in a “Mintyukov goes one spot before us” situation again.

Eiserman will definitely be the wildcard. I hope someone takes him in the top-10. My tiers are starting to solidify even more as we approach the end of the season:

Celebrini

Levshunov-Dickinson

Catton-Demidov-Lindstrom-Buium

Yakemchuk-Silayev

Iginla-Parekh-Eiserman-Helenius

Just ran tankathon 10 times and the Sharks never won.

EVERYTHING IS FINE

Interestingly, I typically have good luck simming tankathon. I frequently win 1OA ~40% of the time.

 

[Gecklund]

Update as the dust settles from a game 7 tank cup OT win:

Moneypuck now has us projected to finish with 50pts and Chicago with 53.5, taking into account all kinda strength of schedule, home/away, advanced stats, etc from the last 12 games. We went from 21.4% chance at 1OA post-lottery, to 22.9% just by giving one point to Chicago.

Per Tankathon, and as @Pinkfloyd noted last night, CHI has the 11th hardest schedule remaining (5 easiest games are STL, MIN, OTT, CGY, NYI, 6 games vs playoff teams). Ours is the 18th hardest schedule remaining with only 3/12 games vs LAK, EDM, DAL, and 9 winnable games vs. STL, MIN, CAL, SEA, and ARI.

It will likely be a photo finish but we definitely are in the tank lead.

Absolutely. We want Devils to lose for their pick, and also Sabres and Calgary and MIN to lose in the hopes also that PIT creeps back to 11OA. I want that, at least. Currently Moneypuck predicts PIT finishes 8th worst, so there's real work to do and I'm not hopeful for that pick. At least TBL is doing well which slightly nerfs CHI's other 1rd pick.


I'd honestly rather be a pick taker with whoever is remaining at 11-15 and have another shot at the tier around 30-40 with the Devils pick vs. sacrificing that pick to move up just a few slots.

Big issue with the 30-40 tier to me is I don’t love a lot of those guys. Steep drop off around 20.