Yeah if it’s like 10th overall and they think it will be higher next year. They’ll never give it to us if it’s top 10 though. It’s just wishful thinking from the creative group around here. No team is ever going to admit they’re going to be worse next year.
I am hoping it is top 10 this year. The Penguins don't really have the cap room to upgrade the team from this season. And all of the top players they rely on will be another year older.
I’ll be honest I don’t agree at all. Don’t think it’s ever fair to write off a team with as much talent as Pittsburgh. Their PP this year was bad and I think that’ll bounce back with a new system. They can add another top 6 winger or 2.
it's hard to bet against them because of who they were but they are a bunch of 38 yo dudes now and father time is undefeated.
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There's a whole separate nerdy discussion about discount rates here (is Grier's discount rate low because Hasso is patient, or high because he needs to show progress fast? Is my fan discount rate significantly different than Hasso or Grier? Etc etc) but aside from that nit on 10%, great math and I'm not at all surprised that it comes down to essentially a coin flip.Examining the value of NHL Draft picks - Sound Of Hockey
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Here's the 'ole value chart
Could be more thorough with this "simulation", but for simplicity, say:
1. penguins would pick at 9 this year.
2. next year, there's a probability p of picking at 3 (they fail hard) and 1-p of picking at 20 (they turn it around)
Let's say a discount rate of 10%, i.e., it's 10% better to have a pick one year earlier.
Under this model the value of pick 9 this year is 372.16.
The value of the pick next year is .9 (602.54 * p + 227.56 (1-p))
Setting these equal and solving for p yields .49. So --- under this model, the question is: do you think that the odds of a pittsburgh regression are less than or greater than 50%? (if yes, then hope they pick this year, if no, then hope they cut their losses).
Didn't know they can't trade the 2024 pick. I think in that case, it makes the chance of them giving up the pick regardless of position stronger. They don't have much trade currency and they'll need that 2025 1st if they want to make a bigger splash.
They could take the prospect and trade the prospect, right?
The problem is they wouldn’t be able to trade either pick till after the draft and teams aren’t going to trust them to pick a player to immediately trade. This isn’t the NBA.
Pitt makes a call within 72 hours after the lottery
Playing style wise he's a two-way 1C in the mold of Crosby/Toews/etc. He and Smith would be an amazing 1-2 duo down the middle for us.
Was just going to post this. He's gotten better and better at reading the tea leaves at how NHL clubs are ranking the players.
For your own mentals, you really should keep your hopes to between 13 and 25% chance.
For me, I'd 100% swap your all star potential tier with the bubble all star tier. The perfect runout for me (barring getting the #1 overall pick) would be Lindstrom/Demidov + Parekh. Our team would be fun run and gun, but I understand why a real life front office might not want to do that. A boy can dream though...
That's not his personal rankings. Those are rankings made by Corey Pronman from The Athletic. Like @coooldude and I were saying, he's gotten really good at making rankings similar to how they play out on draft day.
Ah gotcha, my bad you guys clearly said that. This is interesting though, because I was thinking we'd have a shot at Yakemchuk if the Pens pick landed around 12.
