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2024 NHL Draft: WE DID IT, CELEBRINI IS OURS!!!

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gaucholoco3 said:
So when Celebrini has 2 games where he only puts up 1 point is he going to be considered a “tier 2” prospect.

Look I always thought Smith would be a low end 1C or elite 2C but to say an option has changed on him based on 2 games is ridiculous.
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It's the 2 game stretch, the rookie showcase, how well his draft peers (and next year's draft prospects) have done in the few months since the draft, and everything in between. Like I said, it has shifted his distribution of outcomes for me, but I'm willing to wait and I'll definitely change my mind if and as he picks it up.

If you "always thought" he would be a low end 1C or elite 2C, then we are generally aligned. There were lots of people who thought he had solid to high end 1C or franchise player upside, and I'm saying that this top-end outcome is less likely today than it was at the draft.

It seems like my willingness (or need) is to measure the derivative of his trajectory on a shorter time window than yours. That's fine. Maybe don't call my opinion ridiculous, because I'm not calling yours ridiculous.
 
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coooldude said:
It's the 2 game stretch, the rookie showcase, how well his draft peers (and next year's draft prospects) have done in the few months since the draft, and everything in between. Like I said, it has shifted his distribution of outcomes for me, but I'm willing to wait and I'll definitely change my mind if and as he picks it up.

If you "always thought" he would be a low end 1C or elite 2C, then we are generally aligned. There were lots of people who thought he had solid to high end 1C or franchise player upside, and I'm saying that this top-end outcome is less likely today than it was at the draft.

It seems like my willingness (or need) is to measure the derivative of his trajectory on a shorter time window than yours. That's fine. Maybe don't call my opinion ridiculous, because I'm not calling yours ridiculous.
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Smith wasn’t even at the rookie showcase. What does it matter what Fantilli or Benson are doing when it relates to Smith.

It’s not just you many people point to small samples and make wild claims about them.

It’s just 2 games where he got an assist. Also when someone actually watched the LIU game they mentioned that Smith was dangerous and created chances.

In my opinion it is unreasonable to have changed an opinion of smith over just these two games.
 
gaucholoco3 said:
Smith wasn’t even at the rookie showcase. What does it matter what Fantilli or Benson are doing when it relates to Smith.

It’s not just you many people point to small samples and make wild claims about them.

It’s just 2 games where he got an assist. Also when someone actually watched the LIU game they mentioned that Smith was dangerous and created chances.

In my opinion it is unreasonable to have changed an opinion of smith over just these two games.
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Ovechkin hasn’t scored in two games so I’m now positive he’s not catching Gretzky.
 
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TheBeard said:
Ovechkin hasn’t scored in two games so I’m now positive he’s not catching Gretzky.
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Come on man, you're better than this. Read the posts, disagree if you want, don't stretch analogies to be snide. I usually like your posts.

Nobody is even saying they're positive about anything, and it's absurd to compare a goal scorer, probably the best of all time, with nearly two decades of NHL performance, with a very young prospect whose learning curve is very steep right now.

I'm not positive about anything but the dude is not lighting it up or breaking out like other prospects picked in his vicinity. That's a fact today, and we will see how long that fact holds this season, hopefully not long. Kcoyote's close watch of his shifts from the LIU game was promising enough and I hope the kid pulls it together.
 
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I did watch most of his first game.
He started off slow but one could see his vision and comfort with his long time line mates. His chances were there. He’s not physical, I can’t claim that he ever has been, I’ve only watched this one game of his.
 
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coooldude said:
Come on man, you're better than this. Read the posts, disagree if you want, don't stretch analogies to be snide. I usually like your posts.

Nobody is even saying they're positive about anything, and it's absurd to compare a goal scorer, probably the best of all time, with nearly two decades of NHL performance, with a very young prospect whose learning curve is very steep right now.

I'm not positive about anything but the dude is not lighting it up or breaking out like other prospects picked in his vicinity. That's a fact today, and we will see how long that fact holds this season, hopefully not long. Kcoyote's close watch of his shifts from the LIU game was promising enough and I hope the kid pulls it together.
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That’s your mistake thinking I’m better than this.

I don’t even LIKE hockey.
 
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Alaskanice said:
I did watch most of his first game.
He started off slow but one could see his vision and comfort with his long time line mates. His chances were there. He’s not physical, I can’t claim that he ever has been, I’ve only watched this one game of his.
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It also felt like B.C. was on the penalty kill for long stretches and the whole team never found a rhythm. Would you like to see Smith stand out more? Of course. But hockey is a complex team game and there are a whole lot of reasons why even a really talented player might not shine in every game--especially his first two in college. I mean, shit, the dude might have had a couple really tough midterms last week for all we know!
 
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timorous me said:
It also felt like B.C. was on the penalty kill for long stretches and the whole team never found a rhythm. Would you like to see Smith stand out more? Of course. But hockey is a complex team game and there are a whole lot of reasons why even a really talented player might not shine in every game--especially his first two in college. I mean, shit, the dude might have had a couple really tough midterms last week for all we know!
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I agree with what you said here. It would behoove others to take this to mind. Very few of us really know what hockey life is about.
 
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Alaskanice said:
As is Perrault. That forward line from the USNDP stayed together. Rather remarkable.
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That decision I'm actually not super excited about...it seems like Leonard is very good at the things that Smith isn't great at (hence why they work together so well) and needs to work on this year and beyond to make a smooth transition to the NHL. I would like to see him separated from his USNDP comfort zone linemates. We already know Smith flashes a ton of skill, that's why he was drafted 4th overall. It's the other stuff that needs work, and I wonder if that happens as well as we all hope it will if Leonard is on Smith's wing.
 
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tiburon12 said:
haha i figured. Did he look ok without getting on the scoresheet?
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Sorta. In the first period, I counted 2 times in the defensive zone where he could've done more to engage defensively but I want to say he started to make plays on the puck carrier as the game progressed. I remember seeing him pickpocket a couple guys.

He was never first man in on the forecheck. Definitely deferred to Leonard to forecheck, which is probably the right thing to do in a positional sense but wouldn't be as correct for NHL-styled positionless hockey.

I thought he made creative plays through the neutral zone to advance the puck and made some creative plays to set up good scoring chances but more gusto on the boards would've helped to cycle better. Also lost the puck a few times while deking through sticks so he needs to work on his timing and/or strength on the puck.
 
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tiburon12 said:
Has anyone actually watched the 2 games Smith played in?
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I watched his first game and most of the second game. People act like it’s literally only these 2 games people are making their decisions on. For me it’s the fact that I was already lower on Smith than others and it doesn’t look like he’s worked on his weaknesses at all in the off-season. Yep again 2 games and everyone is just making observations off of the 2 games. I don’t think this has changed anyone’s opinion of him.
 
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hohosaregood said:
Sorta. In the first period, I counted 2 times in the defensive zone where he could've done more to engage defensively but I want to say he started to make plays on the puck carrier as the game progressed. I remember seeing him pickpocket a couple guys.

He was never first man in on the forecheck. Definitely deferred to Leonard to forecheck, which is probably the right thing to do in a positional sense but wouldn't be as correct for NHL-styled positionless hockey.

I thought he made creative plays through the neutral zone to advance the puck and made some creative plays to set up good scoring chances but more gusto on the boards would've helped to cycle better. Also lost the puck a few times while deking through sticks so he needs to work on his timing and/or strength on the puck.
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Mostly agree with this. I actually don’t have a huge problem with his defense, he’s actually pretty good positionally, it’s just his absolute refusal to engage in a puck battle that drives me insane. You can’t assume your wingers are going to do all the dirty work, that may have been fine when Leonard could outmuscle every other U18 player in the world but at higher levels everyone on the team needs to be engaged in getting the puck back. Right now he just kind skates in circles while his linemates fight for the puck, hoping it’ll pop out and he can get an odd-man rush out of it (which he has actually managed to do even in the NCAA…)

He also needs better puck management. College players aren’t going to fall for the same dekes and miss the seam passes he could get away with in juniors. I feel confident that he’ll figure this out, so I’m much less worried about this aspect.
 
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Juxtaposer said:
Mostly agree with this. I actually don’t have a huge problem with his defense, he’s actually pretty good positionally, it’s just his absolute refusal to engage in a puck battle that drives me insane. You can’t assume your wingers are going to do all the dirty work, that may have been fine when Leonard could outmuscle every other U18 player in the world but at higher levels everyone on the team needs to be engaged in getting the puck back. Right now he just kind skates in circles while his linemates fight for the puck, hoping it’ll pop out and he can get an odd-man rush out of it (which he has actually managed to do even in the NCAA…)

He also needs better puck management. College players aren’t going to fall for the same dekes and miss the seam passes he could get away with in juniors. I feel confident that he’ll figure this out, so I’m much less worried about this aspect.
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Doesn't the NTDP play most of its games against NCAA teams? That's what i remember hearing or reading anyways. So the line about the college players are not going to fall for it, is already disproved if that is correct.
 
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