2024 NHL Draft: WE DID IT, CELEBRINI IS OURS!!!

[Alaskanice]

I fully anticipate that Smith will turn the corner.

Agreed. Drafting a player is mostly for who they will become not who they are now.

 

[Groo]

From what I read and heard it was sort of an inconsistent evaluation in terms of compete. You’d have some people saying he’s this hyper competitive player but others saying he needs to work on his compete level. From what I’ve seen in the short time I’ve actually watched him play, it seems to me he doesn’t necessarily have a lack of compete but instead intensity at certain times in the course of play. compete and intensity being mostly relative, Smith can sometimes, imo, get caught analyzing the play instead of reacting. I think hes a smart player but instead of reading and reacting, he can sometimes read read read then react while others seem to be making things happen, not waiting for the perfect moment. That can work in lower levels of play, not on the level where everyone’s bigger, stronger, faster. I’m far from an expert, this is just my evaluation.

The only person I heard praise him on it was Grier.
Intensity sorta equals compete.

 

[LilLeeroy]

Will Smith is 18 years old. He’s just started college. This is new to him.
Relax.

I think it is a little disappointing to have the fewest wins in a loaded draft class and end up drafting somebody who doesn't really look like he will ever be a dominant player, but Will Smith will definitely end up being a valuable player for the Sharks imo.

 

[hohosaregood]

I think it is a little disappointing to have the fewest wins in a loaded draft class and end up drafting somebody who doesn't really look like he will ever be a dominant player, but Will Smith will definitely end up being a valuable player for the Sharks imo.

This is a pretty crazy opinion. It's 2 games into his d+1 season and you're already writing him off like he'll top out as a middle 6 guy.

 

[LilLeeroy]

This is a pretty crazy opinion. It's 2 games into his d+1 season and you're already writing him off like he'll top out as a middle 6 guy.

As prospects the Cooleys/Hughes/Stutzles/Michkovs are pretty obvious right away, Will Smith just isn't that guy and that is okay.

 

[Sendhelplease]

As prospects the Cooleys/Hughes/Stutzles/Michkovs are pretty obvious right away, Will Smith just isn't that guy and that is okay.

This is revisionist history with Hughes. Remember how bad his rookie year was? Saying an 18 year old is "not that guy" after 2 games is absurd.

 

[LilLeeroy]

This is revisionist history with Hughes. Remember how bad his rookie year was? Saying an 18 year old is "not that guy" after 2 games is absurd.

As an 18 year old in the NHL...

I'd say that is a little different than not really standing out in any way vs. LIU.

 

[PacificOceanPotion]

As an 18 year old in the NHL...

I'd say that is a little different than not really standing out in any way vs. LIU.

In all fairness, As Jux pointed out, he played very well against better college teams than LIU with the USNDP. He’s most likely adjusting to coaching and the structure of a new coaching staff and team. He’ll find his way and I feel like talent like Will Smith will rise to the top eventually. There has to be some context to why other young players are having better statistical seasons. Smith was a little more free to be THE guy on the U.S. team. He’s a true freshman with other guys who are THE guys. As he gets more comfortable, it’s my opinion that he’ll come out of his shell and start flashing.

 

[coooldude]

As I said before the draft, Will Smith will probably end up being a Nick Schmaltz type soft skilled "center" who's better suited on the wing. Or at least that's what we should view as the fat part of the bell curve for his range of outcomes.

It's early, but this feels right. And it's a real bummer. The bell curve still has a high top end but the likelihood is already much lower.

As prospects the Cooleys/Hughes/Stutzles/Michkovs are pretty obvious right away, Will Smith just isn't that guy and that is okay.

Yes. "Be patient" absolutely... But it would be better if he were already in the league like his draft peers and we could be patient watching him play at the highest level. Being patient while he adjusts to NCAA hockey just kind of solidifies that he's a lower tier prospect than a true 1C game breaker, or he better be a real late bloomer.

 

[Gecklund]

As I said before the draft, Will Smith will probably end up being a Nick Schmaltz type soft skilled "center" who's better suited on the wing. Or at least that's what we should view as the fat part of the bell curve for his range of outcomes.

And why do you feel this way?

 

[Ukapitalo]

This is revisionist history with Hughes. Remember how bad his rookie year was? Saying an 18 year old is "not that guy" after 2 games is absurd.

I agree with this. Remember when we were 18? I had no idea what was up or down and he's just finding his footing.

Also there is so much more progression to happen, the dude is just 18. Who says he's not going to improve more than his peers through his early 20's? He's obviously got tremendous talent.

Look at Brock Purdy, last round selection, now star quarterback. You have to remember they're still just kids, so much to grow in life and sport.

That being said I would've taken Michkov, but I'm more of a risk taker and Grier didn't wanna take the chance given he's new which I understand.

 

[Celly4Celebrini]

This is a pretty crazy opinion. It's 2 games into his d+1 season and you're already writing him off like he'll top out as a middle 6 guy.

posters here just want to whine the sharks didnt get michkov, wouldnt surprise me if theres certain posters who root for him to fail so they can see "see, i was right"

 

[coooldude]

posters here just want to whine the sharks didnt get michkov, wouldnt surprise me if theres certain posters who root for him to fail so they can see "see, i was right"

Speaking for myself, there's absolutely no way my being right or wrong is more important than the team succeeding. Two notable examples that are relevant are Pavs (I thought we should let him walk, because at the time it seemed like he was due for falling off a cliff, whoops) and Smith himself (I got convinced that he was the right choice at 4 because of all the uncertainty around Michkov, he still might have been the right choice but he's clearly not a top tier prospect at this point, just a very good one).

Look, you can believe two things at the same time: He's only 18, he's going to turn the corner, and he's got a bright future ahead of him, AND, he's not on the level of Hughes, Fantilli, Carlsson, Michkov, possibly Benson, and others. The top prospects make the NHL or tear it up in the leagues they stay in. There are late bloomers we can point to, and maybe Smith is one of those, which would be amazing... but it's less and less likely. He needs to be tearing up the NCAA as a freshman to be a true top prospect (see: Fantilli), rather than just a very, very good one.

 

[gaucholoco3]

I understand the default lately for Sharks fans is “the sky is falling” but everyone needs to just relax about Will Smith. He has 1 point over 2 games. I guarantee Celebrini will have many 2 game stretches where he only has 1 point. Let’s wait maybe 5 or 10 games before the saying he doesn’t have top line potential.

He always will need play driving wingers on his line to be successful so him being a 1C or 2C is dependent on the quality of wingers he plays with.

 

[coooldude]

I understand the default lately for Sharks fans is “the sky is falling” but everyone needs to just relax about Will Smith. He has 1 point over 2 games. I guarantee Celebrini will have many 2 game stretches where he only has 1 point. Let’s wait maybe 5 or 10 games before the saying he doesn’t have top line potential.

He always will need play driving wingers on his line to be successful so him being a 1C or 2C is dependent on the quality of wingers he plays with.

Like my post said... it's not "sky is falling," it's "cloudier than we hoped." Your Celebrini example is a perfect one... the start of his season, he's driving play for his team, in his draft year... Smith in D+1 is still finding his feet. There's time for big movements, but it's pretty illustrative that he's trending behind *next* year's top 2 pick.

You are absolutely right that we don't really know anything until 5-10 games or hell, even a whole season, but every data point matters and it would be far better if his start looked like Macklin's.

 

[Alaskanice]

Like my post said... it's not "sky is falling," it's "cloudier than we hoped." Your Celebrini example is a perfect one... the start of his season, he's driving play for his team, in his draft year... Smith in D+1 is still finding his feet. There's time for big movements, but it's pretty illustrative that he's trending behind *next* year's top 2 pick.

You are absolutely right that we don't really know anything until 5-10 games or hell, even a whole season, but every data point matters and it would be far better if his start looked like Macklin's.

You claim he’s, “…clearly not a top tier prospect at this point.”
That’s a huge leap. I take issue with that because unless you’re a scout or a coach, I’d question your insight. What he has been told to work on, how his game has to improve and adjusting to a new system.
All of this information is beyond all of us. I certainly don’t know any of this and there’s a big possibility you don’t either.
Patience doesn’t fit most posters but we should use some.

 

[Cas]

I'm probably a pessimist but it is still far too small of a sample to read much into Smith's season. He's 18 and just now in college - he's not a 25-year-old essentially finished project with several years of pro experience that we can use to evaluate early in the season.

 

[coooldude]

You claim he’s, “…clearly not a top tier prospect at this point.”
That’s a huge leap. I take issue with that because unless you’re a scout or a coach, I’d question your insight. What he has been told to work on, how his game has to improve and adjusting to a new system.
All of this information is beyond all of us. I certainly don’t know any of this and there’s a big possibility you don’t either.
Patience doesn’t fit most posters but we should use some.

Maybe we're just missing each other on wording. Let me be clear: I do not know what's going to happen. I am not a pro scout. I do know what the early and sparse data are saying *right now*, this season, and how to compare that to past player patterns. But it doesn't give me a crystal ball.

As of today, this point in the very early season of D+1 year, Smith's comps are not Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, Michkov. They are a tier down. So I say the words, "clearly he is not a top tier prospect at this point." This does not mean I think he will never be a top tier, elite, franchise player, it just means the likelihood is lower than it was 6 months ago.

If you look back at past years, players who end up being Auston Matthews, Jack Hughes (a slow starter!), etc. nonetheless are in the big club early on. Smith's trajectory looks more like a ceiling 1C, middle-of-expectations 2C, top 6 winger, which is a very excellent hockey player, but not the player you build the franchise around.

Lastly, me having this opinion doesn't mean I'm being impatient. I fully expect it to be 2030 before we're true contenders. I'm very patient. I'm just evaluating players as they go because it's fun. I'm hoping Smith figures it out, starts ripping 1ppg, and comes to us ready to ball as a top 6 forward in 2025. I just don't think it's as likely as I did in June.

 

[TheBeard]

Can he play RW? Eklund-Smith-Eiserman could be a sick line.

We can call them Smeiserlund.

Will Smith is 18 years old. He’s just started college. This is new to him.
Relax.

I think some people just don't like Grier as GM and will look at every move he's made, whether thru the draft or via FA with the most pessimistic of microscopes just to feel vindicted in their opinion.

That's honestly the only honest justification I can see into already subtly nudging Smith into "bust" category.

 

[Gecklund]

We can call them Smeiserlund.


I think some people just don't like Grier as GM and will look at every move he's made, whether thru the draft or via FA with the most pessimistic of microscopes just to feel vindicted in their opinion.

That's honestly the only honest justification I can see into already subtly nudging Smith into "bust" category.

I haven’t seen a single person say Smith is going to be a bust. All I’ve seen is the normal suspects claiming this is all anti-Grier agenda and people saying Smith’s first games have been disappointing.

 

[coooldude]

We can call them Smeiserlund.


I think some people just don't like Grier as GM and will look at every move he's made, whether thru the draft or via FA with the most pessimistic of microscopes just to feel vindicted in their opinion.

That's honestly the only honest justification I can see into already subtly nudging Smith into "bust" category.

I haven’t seen a single person say Smith is going to be a bust. All I’ve seen is the normal suspects claiming this is all anti-Grier agenda and people saying Smith’s first games have been disappointing.

Exactly. I love what Grier is doing, I'm disappointed that the *very* early data put Smith in the Tier 2 prospect category (not probable elite franchise player, possible 1st liner, solidly likely 2C), whereas the other people who were his "peers" are looking better and next year's top 2 player Celebrini is looking better already... but, I'm willing to wait and see.

 

[Gecklund]

Exactly. I love what Grier is doing, I'm disappointed that the *very* early data put Smith in the Tier 2 prospect category (not probable elite franchise player, possible 1st liner, solidly likely 2C), whereas the other people who were his "peers" are looking better and next year's top 2 player Celebrini is looking better already... but, I'm willing to wait and see.

The other thing is it’s not like Smith was some undisputed pick at the time. I don’t think it’s much of an argument that if Michkov was in NA or Europe and not Russia he would not have been there at our pick. Acting like people are saying Smith is a bust because they pointed out that Smith hasn’t looked great in his first 2 games and Celebrini has or Michkov has looked good to start this season, etc. is crazy.

 

[TheBeard]

I haven’t seen a single person say Smith is going to be a bust. All I’ve seen is the normal suspects claiming this is all anti-Grier agenda and people saying Smith’s first games have been disappointing.

I didn't say anyone was saying he's a bust, merely that they're subtly nudging him into that category.

 

[gaucholoco3]

Exactly. I love what Grier is doing, I'm disappointed that the *very* early data put Smith in the Tier 2 prospect category (not probable elite franchise player, possible 1st liner, solidly likely 2C), whereas the other people who were his "peers" are looking better and next year's top 2 player Celebrini is looking better already... but, I'm willing to wait and see.

So when Celebrini has 2 games where he only puts up 1 point is he going to be considered a “tier 2” prospect.

Look I always thought Smith would be a low end 1C or elite 2C but to say an option has changed on him based on 2 games is ridiculous.

 

[LilLeeroy]

So when Celebrini has 2 games where he only puts up 1 point is he going to be considered a “tier 2” prospect.

Look I always thought Smith would be a low end 1C or elite 2C but to say an option has changed on him based on 2 games is ridiculous.

If Macklin Celebrini has a 2 game stretch where he has 0 even strength points, 2 sog, and is -1 against NCAA level competition it might be something to consider.