Prospect Info: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[SteveCangialosi123]

I feel like we’re passing on the physically weak offense defenseman and that’s ok. (And I like Parekh.)

I have vivid nightmares where we take Yakemchuk.

He looks too much like a Flyer

 

[Lou Bloom]

I feel like we’re passing on the physically weak offense defenseman and that’s ok. (And I like Parekh.)

I have vivid nightmares where we take Yakemchuk.

I think Yakenchuk is a very good prospect, I just can’t see them picking him with the current log jam at RHD that might be extended longer if they add Pesce.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I think you've sold me on Nygard.

And if we draft him, you better be right.

I'm confident. I have Nygard ranked #6, which is extremely high compared to the consensus, and I'm okay with that.

I think you've been reading me on these threads for long enough that you realize I don't exactly make s**t up.

The important thing I keep saying about Nygard is he's *rare*. I'm trying to think of the last non top-3 overall prospect who was elite or near-elite in this group of categories: shooting, skating, compete, hockey IQ, defensive play, physicality, interior play. It's kind of a weird combination which feels like you're not talking about one great prospect, but rather mixing up two great prospects. But that's Nygard.

No one is doubting Nygard's floor. The kid is destined to at least be an impact third-liner in a Blake Coleman-y way -- winning battles, making big hits, scoring 20+ goals, forechecking like a maniac, playing great D, killing penalties, crashing creases.

The question is simply whether or not Michael Brandsegg-Nygard will develop into a 30+ or even 40+ goal guy capable of playing a top 6 role.

Judging by the fact I have him rated #6, you can guess what my answer to that question is. Quite simply, his ridiculously blistering shot automatically gives him a head start here. Add in his outstanding speed and his propensity for getting pucks into high-danger areas and crashing creases for rebounds, screens and deflections and that's where I see this kid piling up goals in the future.

My final check mark for Nygard would be his relative closeness to the NHL. He's already physically mature and smart and capable off the puck. I'd give him next year in the SHL to refine his offensive skills and then a serious chance at reaching the pros by 2025-26.

So again, when it comes to Michael Brandsegg-Nygard, I am confident. The kid's going to be a really good hockey player for a very long time.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Hypothetically, if the Devils did trade back to 14OA, what are the chances of teams 10-13 drafting MBN? I’m not advocating for them doing so….just curious.

I'd say 50/50. Buffalo needs a guy like Nygard and Philly loves guys like Nygard. Minnesota could go a lot of ways, but Nygard is certainly one of them.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Based on the “harder to play against” mantra from Fitz and the glowing comments from Dennehy about Dickinson, I get the feeling the Devils will be ecstatic if he somehow falls to 10OA (which seems unlikely).

I’m not saying Dickinson is a better prospect than Buium. However, Dickinson’s skill set does fit a need- a big, strong, minute muncher who isn’t shy to get physical, all the while being a really good skater. Seems like the perfect partner for Nemec.

I know Buium has many tremendous attributes and I’d still be delighted to select him but we already have Luke/Nemec and eventually Casey, all of whom can man a PP and bring the offense. Great teams have a blend of players that complement one another. Would Buium be somewhat redundant given what we already have?

Two-way defensemen are never redundant by definition. The same could be said for Nemec -- who a few years down the line could be one of the best D in the league on either side of the puck. I think Luke is so special offensively he'll always gamble a bit at the expense of defense, so he's a bit like Makar in that sense.

But Buium has more in common with Nemec in that he's a strong defender with the potential to be special offensively. He's realistically a great pick for all 32 NHL teams because of that.

Honestly don’t think it’s nearly as likely we take MBN at 10 as some people on here think.

The only way we take him that high really is if the Devils like him as much as STI which isn’t all that likely. Not many scouts and moreso teams will have him ranked near their top 5 IMO.

We’re not gonna be taking our 10th ranked prospect at 10. It’s most likely gonna be someone we have ranked in the 5-7 or 8 range. What are the odds the devils have someone generally ranked around 15 or slightly later (17 on Bob’s) that high? Not impossible but probably not that likely either. It doesn’t sound like a single scout ranked him higher than 14 in Mackenzie’s poll.


It wasn’t intended to be snarky. Sorry if it came across that way. Was just trying to emphasize how impossible it is to know or even guess at. Based on what I was just saying above I’d say there’s pretty good chance he would still be available but all it takes is one team liking him more than the consensus.

I agree with you that Mr. Fitzgerald does not call me and ask my opinion nearly enough. Which is a nice way of saying never. I'm a bit sad about it, to be honest.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Yeah, I get that thinking. Maybe if he's with a group of a couple other players and they get the 14 pick or so?

Again, I'm not remotely close in knowledge to several of the experts we fortunately have on this forum, but getting a guy at 10 that is consistently ranked 14-17 on other sites doesn't make you feel all warm and fuzzy inside. Though that being said, the fact that our guys really like Nygard would probably counteract that.

So to summarize...¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Rest assured that my record is stronger than most of the experts. I wrote something last week about, in particular, my record on defensemen vs. Scott Wheeler -- it's really not close.

With forwards my record is a bit less spotless but we can quickly go back to the 2020 draft when I said Jarvis would have been a better RW pick than Holtz at #7 and Mercer was the perfect pick at #18, and I did ok on both counts. I had Gritsyuk as a big-time sleeper in 2019. I was one of the only people writing about Jesper Bratt in 2016. So, I'm ok there too.

I'm a huge fan of Tij Iginla so I don't want to put him down. But look at Nygard's skill set and game film and ask yourself this: where would Nygard's consensus ranking be if he played in the WHL and his last name was "Iginla". Because I think that is your answer of where Nygard deserves to be ranked.

 

[StevenToddIves]

@Bleedred I know he’s gonna enjoy this one

I don’t think I’ve ever laughed at a goal more than his first NHL goal. His shot was practically a field goal attempt and he still somehow scored.

Here's my write-up from awhile back, I think he's a great home run swing for the later rounds:

RW Kasper Pikkarainen, TPS U20, FIN JR.
When a forward can't put up PPG numbers in Finnish juniors despite a sizable size advantage, he tends to get virtually ignored by much of the draft community. Personally, I initially watched Pikkarainen because he's the son of Ilkka Pikkarainen, whom I remembered from his brief cup of coffee in the NHL with the Devils way back in 2009-10. And I found a lot of things about Kasper Pikkarainen which lead me to believe there may be some very interesting potential.

First off, it's important to note that despite Pikkarainen's man-size (6'3-195) and good strength, he's one of the youngest players in the 2024 draft with an August 2006 birthday. He's still 17. Also, he has that combination of skating and size which cannot be taught. Pikkarainen has multiple plus abilities in his tool kit -- very soft hands, very good mobility, a hard shot. His passing vision is tough to gauge because he's just saw raw -- I've seen him make high-end passes, but I've also seen him make poor and rushed decisions with the puck.

Pikkarainen is not a proactively physical player, but I'd say he's on the physical side and we might see this improve. I've seen him overpower defenders two and three years older, and I think once he realizes how strong he has the capacity to become he'll assert himself more in that respect.

Similarly, though I'd say his compete level is good, his hockey IQ is tough to get a finger on. Although he is an NHL legacy, he plays with a degree of uncertainty as if he's often asking himself if what he's doing is the right thing to do. But again, he's also capable of some plays where, taken out of context, you'd think he will make the pros -- and his combination of skating, hands and size absolutely lends itself to that.

Though this is one of the rawer players in the draft and there's absolutely a chance he does not develop the way you want and never ends up in North America, I'd say the potential pay-off is pretty good with a player like Kasper Pikkarainen. This is definitely the type of player worth swinging for in Rounds 5-7 if he's still on the board.

 

[StevenToddIves]

For context here are some guys the Pronman Wheeler Peters Button McKenzie missed with in 2019. I couldn't find all 5 lists, or at least versions that were close to the draft, for 2018 or earlier.

Seider: Average is well beyond 20, can only find Wheeler's top 31 and he didn't have him on there. Between the 4 others he averages at #20. Picked #6
Soderstrom: Averages #22. Picked #11
Krebs: Averages #10. Picked #17
Caufield: Averages #7, Picked #16

Just goes to show that there are always some considerable differences between the public lists and that of actual teams/scouts and that neither side is always right. It only took a few minutes to grab examples of the public lists being right and wrong in both cases of underrating and overrating guys.

I had Seider at #11 and Soderstrom a bit lower than consensus, but defense is my strength.

I missed by a mile on Krebs (I think I had him #6) but hit on Caufield (although so did just about everybody).

If there's a Seider in this year's draft, it's probably Solberg. If there's a Krebs in this draft, I hate to say it but it's probably Chernyshov. There is no Caufield in this draft and if there's a Soderstrom it's probably Jiricek.

 

[StevenToddIves]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1806052695847137510

Decent list

Cole Perfetti (37-74-111 in 61 games) missed the list but compares quite well with a higher PPG than Catton (54-62-116 in 68 games). They are also similar stylistically and in talent level.

Perfetti has taken awhile to adjust to the NHL, but after an inevitable trade of Ehlers I expect him to get a regular top 6 role in Winnipeg this year and break out scoring-wise.

 

[StevenToddIves]

MBN is generally ranked around 15 on public lists, we’re talking about a 5 spot difference in a wide open draft range, go look at pre draft public rankings from players like Simashev, Seider, Sanderson, etc…, these public lists also tend to favor point producers or offense first talent over two way play or defense leaning talent, while the actual NHL draft tends to value two way play and defense. That doesn’t mean I think he’s a sure fire pick, there’s a wide range of players that I consider on the same tier talent wise that they could pick (Iginla, Sennecke, Catton, MBN, Helenius, Eiserman, Dickinson and Buium are all worthy candidates), either way though MBN’s name is clearly in play for the pick when you consider his talent and Dennehy’s comments.

My new saying: "where would Brandsegg-Nygard be ranked by the consensus if he played in the WHL and his last name was Iginla?"

Because that's our answer of where he probably should go.

McKenzie's list had Seider at 16. Not 6 but mid first round for a prospect from an unheralded place is pretty impressive.

This guy had him higher.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I believe you dont understand correctly my opinion or opinion of Steve.
At least I think we should draft Nygard. Doesnt mean I think we will. I think Fitz will draft different player. I think it will be Sennecke(wich I will not like but I will live with it) or Helenius(wich I like more) or some defenseman if guy like Dickinson or Silayev will be available.

Oh, fun! -- I totally disagree with you here.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say I absolutely 100% believe Brandsegg-Nygard is in the top 10 on the NJ draft board. Two reasons:

1) He's precisely the type of player Fitzgerald has been vocally pining for.
2) F**k the consensus, he's actually that good.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I feel like we’re passing on the physically weak offense defenseman and that’s ok. (And I like Parekh.)

I have vivid nightmares where we take Yakemchuk.

I have vivid nightmares where I'm walking down the sidewalk in Brooklyn, but then suddenly I look down and the sidewalk is the ocean, and then I fall in and there's a typhoon, and then I sink down and am transported to a far off dimension where the people are all made out of waffles and attack me with spears because my Motorhead t-shirt reminds them of the monster which ate their king the previous decade.

Your nightmares are better.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1806097399829708883

 

[Guadana]

Oh, fun! -- I totally disagree with you here.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say I absolutely 100% believe Brandsegg-Nygard is in the top 10 on the NJ draft board. Two reasons:

1) He's precisely the type of player Fitzgerald has been vocally pining for.
2) F**k the consensus, he's actually that good.

I don't care about consensus. I always was and often when I tried to be conservative I was wrong. And I should be less conservative with my rankings.

In terms of Nygard and his spot on Fitzys list - I don't know. I feels like he wants big media guy like Iginla or Sennecke. Don't know why may be because of this noise. Fitz picked, traded and signed guys like Dougie, Toffoli, Nosek, Holtz, Lenny, even Mercer, (and Salminen, Hauser, Cheslock, Braun, etc) etcwho are not great skaters or fast skaters. I think he doesn't care.
May be its just a bad mood.

 

[Bcap88]

Does McKenzie do his final rankings or is retired from that as well?

I know they were pretty accurate and last one I remember is Nemec draft year

 

[Forge]

Does McKenzie do his final rankings or is retired from that as well?

I know they were pretty accurate and last one I remember is Nemec draft year

He's already released them.

Bob McKenzie's Final NHL Draft Ranking: Many attractive and diverse options after Macklin Celebrini | TSN

This year’s final ranking, from No. 2 on, is much more challenging to assemble because of two factors - many more divergent opinions and variance on even the top 10 picks and two Russians forcing their way into the conversation in the upper echelon.

www.tsn.ca

 

[Xirik]

anyone up for making a final draft poll or are we just going to assume a Helenius and Nygard battle?

 

[Cheddabombs]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1806097399829708883

 

[Forge]

anyone up for making a final draft poll or are we just going to assume a Helenius and Nygard battle?

this would probably be my guess

 

[Monsieur Verdoux]

Draft Prospects Hockey's NHL Draft Sim is updated with Bob's latest rankings. It's a fun tool to use your working time before the draft.

I just noticed I didn't pick any defensemen.

New Jersey Devils

(10) Tij Iginla, C
(75) Nathan Villeneuve, C
(91) Simon Zether, C
(139) Marcus Gidlöf, G
(153) Lucas Van Vliet, LW
(171) Mac Swanson, C

Draft Simulator

NHL draft simulator.

draftprospectshockey.com

 

[Brodeur]

Just got to Vegas, the Buium bros were here with a buddy checking into Treasure Island when I got to the front desk.

I probably won't be able to check HF while I'm here, so have fun everyone, it should be a fun few days.

 

[Forge]

Just got to Vegas, the Buium bros were here with a buddy checking into Treasure Island when I got to the front desk.

I probably won't be able to check HF while I'm here, so have fun everyone, it should be a fun few days.

Enjoy our 115 degree summer days!

 

[Alex NJD]

Can't sleep, spent a while looking through some other boards, websites, and twitter/x, to see how they think things shake out

Chicago: All arguing Levshunov vs Demidov but that's to be expected
Anaheim: A lot seem to think its Silayev with. Recent rumors about Sennecke. Some Lindstrom, Buium, Dickinson love. Surprising lack of Demidov
Columbus: : Lindstrom and Sennecke seem like their most discussed. Some Iginla. A few guys on their board love Demidov but don't think they take him
Montreal: Demidov, some fear he won't be there. Other options are Iginla and Sennecke. Barely any mention of dmen
Utah: Think they need defense, think their interest in wingers might be a smokescreen. (I watched 25 minutes of a Utah HC podcast for it, honestly pretty insightful)
Ottawa: Everything but centers, they love Iginla
Seattle: They need top dmen in the prospect pool but they have little history/media coverage or rumors to base much off of. Their board's version of STI/Guadana/Evnted seems to also have MBN at #6
Calgary: Expected Iginla talk, most others lean D over F. Lots of BPA, highest ceiling, "we need franchise cornerstone" stuff
NJ: Bunch of psychopaths
Buffalo: Helenius and Catton seem to be favorites, like MBN. Some are coping Dickinson will fall to them (just like some of us)
Philly: Helenius and Catton love again. Some of the same arguments we have about Sennecke (tho due to their abundance of young RWs) some dman mentions
Wild: Seem cool with whoever is still there and BPA at 13
Sharks: Dmen or wingers to play with Celebrini and Smith. Warmest fanbase on Eiserman

Overall, everyone seems to think Levshunov goes at 2. Lots of people think Silayev drops. Not much mention of Parekh off of X. HF people don't seem to like him much. Same with Catton to a lesser extent. Sennecke probably the most debated guy. Lots of people love Buium and Iginla but think they're gone before their team picks.

Everyone before us think Helenius ceiling is too low, everyone after seems to think he'd be a great pick. Are we the sweet spot? Saw Montreal and Buffalo posters say they think we take him at #10

Can't believe I wasted 45 minutes on this

 

[ninetyeight]

Can't believe I wasted 45 minutes on this

Thank you for your sacrifice! This was an interesting read and I'm too lazy to check the subs myself. Interesting that Anaheim fans ain't talking about Levshunov or Demidov. Also surprised to see everyone so high on Sennecke, I think he would be a bit of a gamble even at #10. I think he'll take longer than some to develop and hence doesn't fit our timeline as well as some others. He had big growth spurt and now his skating is an issue. Similar to what happened to Mikko Rantanen. Can he figure things out like Rantanen did who knows. He also needs to bulk up his big frame. Another question is his progression, production wise he had an outstanding season a year ago, but he hasn't made much progression this season. Did he hit a wall? Similar questions were asked with Shane Wright.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Draft Prospects Hockey's NHL Draft Sim is updated with Bob's latest rankings. It's a fun tool to use your working time before the draft.

I just noticed I didn't pick any defensemen.

New Jersey Devils

(10) Tij Iginla, C
(75) Nathan Villeneuve, C
(91) Simon Zether, C
(139) Marcus Gidlöf, G
(153) Lucas Van Vliet, LW
(171) Mac Swanson, C

Draft Simulator

NHL draft simulator.

draftprospectshockey.com

Unrealistic but awesome draft:

10 C Lindstrom
75 LW Vanacker
91 LD Shuravin
139 RW Traff
153 C Spellacy
171 LW Swanson