Jason MacIsaac
Registered User
I’m surprised fans want to trade back given what our roster looks like. I’d prefer the best chance at a super star than go with analytics and the best chance at two serviceable players.
Prospect Info: 2024 NHL Draft Thread
- Thread starter Devs3cups
- Start date
Edmonton East
BUT the ADvaNCEd STatS...
- Nov 25, 2007
- 6,501
- 2,467
@StevenToddIves and our debate plot thickens with that Markstrom trade.
I'd say my concern that Fitz is feeling some heat to win now appears correct, yes? I feel like we'd both agree the Markstrom trade was a material overpay and outright dangerous for a team that just missed the playoffs.
Remains to be seen how it impacts the possibility of moving this year's 1st though. On one hand and in your favor, it'd be wild to move yet ANOTHER 1st considering the team isn't a serious contender. On the other, if you trade material assets for a 35 year old goalie with 2 years remaining, that implies you are trying to go for it right now.
Still think this place will eventually turn on Fitz, yourself included.
I'd say my concern that Fitz is feeling some heat to win now appears correct, yes? I feel like we'd both agree the Markstrom trade was a material overpay and outright dangerous for a team that just missed the playoffs.
Remains to be seen how it impacts the possibility of moving this year's 1st though. On one hand and in your favor, it'd be wild to move yet ANOTHER 1st considering the team isn't a serious contender. On the other, if you trade material assets for a 35 year old goalie with 2 years remaining, that implies you are trying to go for it right now.
Still think this place will eventually turn on Fitz, yourself included.
Captain3rdLine
Registered User
- Sep 24, 2020
- 7,124
- 8,366
lol what?
Also, in reference to later in your post, what makes a team a serious contender?
- Oct 22, 2002
- 9,487
- 4,135
A lot of draft experts have him outside the top 10.
Rankings
Ranked #13 by CONSOLIDATED RANKING
Ranked #16 by ELITEPROSPECTS.COM
Ranked #20 by TSN/BOB McKENZIE
Ranked #17 by TSN/CRAIG BUTTON
Ranked #6 by THN/FERRARI
Ranked #16 by THN/KENNEDY
Ranked #16 by MCKEEN'S HOCKEY
Ranked #15 by FLOHOCKEY/CHRIS PETERS
Ranked #12 by FCHOCKEY
Ranked #16 by DAILY FACEOFF
Ranked #5 by NHL CENTRAL SCOUTING (EU Skaters)
Ranked #18 by ISS HOCKEY
Ranked #16 by SPORTSNET/COSENTINO
Ranked #16 by SPORTSNET/BUKALA
Ranked #9 by RECRUIT SCOUTING
Ranked #12 by DOBBERPROSPECTS
Ranked #13 by DRAFT PROSPECTS HOCKEY
Ranked #15 by SMAHT SCOUTING
I don't like taking reaches based on team needs. Just draft best player available. If we are going to draft based on a team need, i rather they focus on a center.
Normal Devil
Registered User
- Mar 16, 2014
- 1,453
- 1,123
I'll be surprised if we actually end up picking at #10. The Markstrom move seems to signal that Fitz is in win now mode, and he's made some comments that seem to back that up as well. I think Fitz wants a top 6 forward in his mid 20's or so with a few years left on his deal to add to the mix. Now maybe nobody will bite, but I think that is his preference for sure.
Teams typically only trade down if they're reasonably certain that they player they would have taken originally would still be there. One I recall was St. Louis in 2007, they badly wanted Jakub Voracek but when they couldn't get him, their next target was Lars Eller. They figured they could trade back from #9 to #13 and still get him. I remember them posting draft floor video when they were deciding what to do and I remember one of their scouts said something like "Carolina's all over [Brandon] Sutter at #11."
And there can be risk, my go to cautionary tale was Anaheim in 2008. The story I heard was that they really liked Erik Karlsson who was a late riser that draft year. They thought they could trade back and recoup some picks to refill their prospect cupboard. They eventually turned #12 into #17, #35, and #39 which seems like decent "value." But then Ottawa traded up from #18 to #15 to snipe Karlsson. Anaheim ended up with Jake Gardiner, Nicolas Deschamps, and Eric O'Dell (who they didn't sign).
In 2015, Ray Shero offered #6 to Columbus for #8, #34, and #129. That would have made sense for us since everybody figured Columbus wanted a D and we would have been guaranteed that at least one of Zacha/Barzal would have been there at #8.
Hypothetical scenario this year is say the Devils really want a wing and they think Buffalo/Philly/Minnesota are looking at other positions. San Jose calls since they maybe want one of the last top tier D. So maybe you get the same guy at #14 that you would have taken at #10. But like you mentioned, sometimes the gamble isn't worth a garden variety 2nd round pick. Especially if the quality drops after #20 like many have been saying.
Forge
Blissfully Mediocre
PDOcast draft. Christ Peters, Dimitri and Cam Robinson.
Important to note that they are doing the draft as how they would draft in each team's position. They are not drafting on the basis of what they think the respective team will do.
1. Celebrini
2. Levshunov
3. Demidov
4. Lindstrom
5. Buium (kind of surprised by this pick)
6. Catton
7. Parekh
8. Dickinson
9. Iginla
10. Sennecke
11. Yakemchuk
12. Eiserman
13. Helenius
14. Silayev
15. Connelly
Important to note that they are doing the draft as how they would draft in each team's position. They are not drafting on the basis of what they think the respective team will do.
1. Celebrini
2. Levshunov
3. Demidov
4. Lindstrom
5. Buium (kind of surprised by this pick)
6. Catton
7. Parekh
8. Dickinson
9. Iginla
10. Sennecke
11. Yakemchuk
12. Eiserman
13. Helenius
14. Silayev
15. Connelly
Forge
Blissfully Mediocre
I'd be far more floored if we don't pick at 10 after the markstrom trade, tbh.
Unless we trade up / down, but I don't see that pick getting moved for a player at this juncture. I think there was a highly limited pool of players that we would have looked at flipping that pick for anyway.
Furthermore, everyone's pick seems like it's available. Utah and Ottawa open to moving 6 and 7, New Jersey and Buffalo open to moving 10 & 11.
Captain3rdLine
Registered User
- Sep 24, 2020
- 7,124
- 8,366
As I also said in my post a couple of days ago there are only two good reasons to trade back. You’ve been offered value that’s too good to pass up or there is multiple prospects you view equally and you are guaranteed to get one still.
Otherwise it’s stupid even if the player you want is ranked lower in the media. Those media rankings mean nothing on draft day. It’s not worth possibly losing the prospect you really want for a 3rd round pick. To me that is just common sense but you also just brought up some good examples of why not to.
If we really like a player take him at 10 even if he’s generally around 20 or something in the media. If you like him enough to take him at 10 there’s a good chance somebody else may like him enough to take him at 11, 12, or 13
I personally have Nygard at #6 overall. So in my mind, if my top 5 of Celebrini/Demidov/Lindstrom/Buium/Dickinson are all off the board, Nygard becomes the best available player. Also, he played a good deal of center towards the end of last season and looked pretty good there.
Out of every forward even mentioned in pretty much most top 5-20 ranges (so we're eliminating Celebrini, Demidov and Lindstrom) Nygard is the best skater, the best defensive forward, has the highest IQ aside from Helenius, has the best compete level, is the strongest and most physical give or take Chernyshov, is the best forechecker, and is the 2nd best shooter after only Eiserman. This is why I've ranked him as my 4th best forward in the 2024 class. It's an impressive set of skills and intangibles and I see Nygard as also perhaps the most NHL ready forward in the draft after only Celebrini.
So yes, I'd be thrilled with Nygard at #10 overall, it would be an outstanding pick, even better when one realizes that his skill set, if fully realized, is almost directly what would benefit Jack Hughes.
Jason MacIsaac
Registered User
It wouldn’t be smart for NJ to trade the pick before they see the draft unfold. If they have Lindstrom ranked 2 and he falls, they would be foolish to trade the pick at 10OA value.
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I've yet to say anything truly negative about Lamoriello or Shero on these threads, I don't see myself breaking character for Fitzgerald, who has mostly done an excellent job running the Devils.
There is no GM with whom I will love every move. I still criticize wasted draft picks on names like Baumgartner, Hurtig and Salminen. I thought he waited too long to pull the trigger on a new coach and it was a bit of an overpay for Markstrom. But overall, he's done a great job and I commend him.
Man, would Lindstrom be a dream come true.
Guadana
Registered User
Most of rankings had Jarvis outside top-10 and Holtz as top-10.
May be its time to start study players and analysis, not study rankings?
Guadana
Registered User
I was very pro Fitz. Now in the moment I have more questions with how he is managing. Its not negative, but its not 80-100%. positive.
I'm a pretty hard 69%
Jason MacIsaac
Registered User
Obviously, just an example. Anyone in that 2 to 11 range could theoretically be their number 2 on the big board
Guadana
Registered User
We both at 69... I guess.
Bone Density
Registered User
- Jul 27, 2022
- 1,663
- 3,482
I still really like Silayev, but get the concerns on lack of production/what does he really top out at? I feel like in our situation, we can take a little more or a risk. I think I'll be happy with whoever we pick, I just really like Silayev and Iginla.
Forge
Blissfully Mediocre
Just based on the stuff I've read / listened to, sennecke definitely feels like the guy who gets attached to us the most.
Obviously I don't listen and read everything lol
Obviously I don't listen and read everything lol
- Dec 1, 2019
- 4,776
- 10,062
But we have no Bahls and no Wood
I personally have Sennecke just outside my top 20. To me, he's a good offensive wing prospect with elite puck-skills and excellent passing vision and a pretty good shot -- a combination which makes him worth a pick int he 1st round. However, he's not a particularly impressive skater, his IQ dips severely off the puck, and his compete level and defensive game are both closer to concerns than strengths. People love the fact he's 6'3, but I only consider size an attribute if the player actually uses that size proactively. For Sennecke, it's only a strength in the sense that he uses his length to further enhance his extraordinary puck control.
Sennecke is a good prospect and as such I am uncomfortable arguing against him. However, in my many viewings, he's not even in the same tier as the forwards who should be considered at #10 overall. He's dynamic with the puck in space, and the very definition of "space" for him is smaller than with most prospects because of his gifted talents in manipulating the puck. But every other facet of his game is a work in progress, to say the least. As such, he's very far away from the NHL and no absolute guarantee to make it. And that's just not something I could seriously consider in the top 15 of this draft, much less the top 10.
I'm agreeing to your point, and decided to add to it in the hopes that other people can understand what both you and I have said on these threads at great length:
In 2020, I had Seth Jarvis over Perfetti, Quinn and Holtz despite the fact his consensus ranking was 4th of the players, generally. My reasoning was simple -- I felt the skill sets of the 4 players all had particular strengths, but Jarvis was the best of the 4 in the 3 skills I consider the most crucial of all -- skating, hockey IQ and compete level.
Using this same algorithm, it's easy for me to explain why I have players like Nygard, Chernyshov and John Mustard ranked far higher than the consensus.
This trio of skills -- when they are all high end -- give a player a high floor almost single-handedly. A player average across the board in every other ability is still extremely likely to catch on as a bottom 6 NHLer.
With Nygard, we then have to factor in the fact that he has a near-elite shot, the versatility to play center, an extremely physical play style, and he's the best defensive winger in the entire 2024 class.
We also have to figure in that his "get the puck to the net" mentality and "use my immense strength to crash the crease" proclivity is going to get both pucks and himself into high-danger areas which remain high-danger areas in the pros. This is in abject antithesis to the perimeter spaces which many amateur high-scorers thrive in during amateur hockey -- because at NHL levels it becomes far, far more difficult to skate around the perimeter creating 5-on-5 unless you are at the elite level of a Patrick Kane or Nikita Kucherov or Connor McDavid. Every draft has 1st round, high-offense perimeter danglers who fail in the pros because they cannot adjust to this -- from Alex Nylander and Borgstrom in 2016 to Andersson in 2017 to Denisenko in 2018 and so on.
This is not to say Perfetti, Quinn and Holtz will fail in the NHL -- they all remain bright young players with a lot of potential. But clearly, their adjustment to the pros proved far more difficult than Jarvis, who was just smarter and grittier and quicker.
Players who prefer the perimeter like Catton, Eiserman and Sennecke certainly possess the ability to translate to the NHL. But it will be a lot more adjustment and work for them than it will be for, say, a Lindstrom, Nygard or Helenius -- all of whom can essentially continue the same game-type they employ now into a straight path towards the pros, much like a Seth Jarvis.
Ultimately, a forward's "projectability" is not simply limited to his skill set. Alex Nylander did not *lose* his high end passing and puck handling skills, nor did Denisenko. They just never adjusted to the fact that defenses did not bite on all the fancy moves and guys they grew accustomed to blowing past now being able to skate with them. Borgstrom did not *lose* his great shot, he just lost the time to get it off and never found the gumption to crash creases. Seth Jarvis had no such concerns, nor will Michael Brandsegg-Nygard.
disagree
chapter is not closed yet
when thorpe comes of his bridge deal and the ir, we will offer him to the habs for the #2oa +
ScottyK
Hi, I'm mat.
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