Prospect Info: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[longislanddevil]

Muggli is a beautiful skater, which will certainly help him on draft day, and at 6'0-175 he's not exactly *small*. Muggli's median ranking is probably in the mid-to-late 2nd round, which sounds about right. It also makes it very conceivable that he falls to the NJ 3rd round pick at #74 overall.

If I were forced to make a list of top 10 (conceivable) players for the Devils to take at #74, Muggli would be in strong consideration. NJ has a somewhat similar player in the system in Daniil Orlov, but you can never have too many ultra-fast defensemen who specialize in strong defensive play.

I’m going to put you to work, Steven. Haha…if you did make a list of your preferred targets for the Devils 3rd round pick, what would your top 5-10 look like?

As always, greatly appreciate your contributions to this board. We are very fortunate to have someone as astute as yourself helping us learn more about these prospects!!

 

[StevenToddIves]

2024 Draft Profile:

LW Marek Vanacker, Brantford OHL
Vanacker's mix of speed, smarts and high compete make him one of the most inherently likable players in the 2024 draft class. It's impossible to find anyone in the draft community without something good to say about him. The only questions seem to revolve around how high his offensive upside is -- does he have top 6 potential, or is he more of a middle 6-type player? How NHL scouting staffs answer that question will be the determining factor for whether the young Canadian forward hears his name called in the first round or the second round of the 2024 draft.

Vanacker's offensive tool kit is good across the board without being outright flashy or dynamic. He did not put up an impressive scoring line of 36-46-82 in 68 OHL games by accident. His skating gives him a clear advantage over OHL competition -- it's not elite by NHL standards, but this is a kid who plays with pace and has room to grow. At a lanky 6'1-165, some time in the weight room building up core strength should improve the explosiveness of his first steps, and his edge work and top speeds are already impressive while falling just short of being a high-end trait.

Vanacker's best offensive tool is his shot, which is hard, accurate and deadly. This kid can really fire the puck and again, it's interesting to project how much better this will get when he builds up core strength. He is also a player who can pull out a fancy dangle once in awhile, though he's more of a straight-line player and it's not exactly his calling card. Vanacker is what I'd call a "traditionally good" passer in the sense that he's a high-IQ player who makes excellent decisions with the puck and passes with accuracy and acuity, but he's not the ultra-vision type. For a forward whose calling cards are finishing, forechecking and intelligence, this is not a detriment but rather exactly what you would want.

I'd say what pushes Vanacker into late-1st round consideration is his versatility. He's one of the best penalty killers in the entire OHL and also a feature player on the top Brantford PP unit. I've seen him deployed at both wings, and he's the type of ceaseless hustler who can be shuffled to any of the top 3 lines in order to give that line a jolt of energy.

Marek Vanacker is a high-floor winger, it would be shocking if he did not at least wind up being a very effective NHL 3rd-liner and penalty killer. But since the question is upside, I'm going to project him as being even better. I feel some filling out in the weight room should improve the skating/shooting combo which is already quite impressive, and give him a realistic plausibility of becoming a top-6 in the pros. As such, this is a player who is certainly worth consideration in the late 1st round of the 2024 draft.

 

[Guttersniped]

Muggli is a beautiful skater, which will certainly help him on draft day, and at 6'0-175 he's not exactly *small*. Muggli's median ranking is probably in the mid-to-late 2nd round, which sounds about right. It also makes it very conceivable that he falls to the NJ 3rd round pick at #74 overall.

If I were forced to make a list of top 10 (conceivable) players for the Devils to take at #74, Muggli would be in strong consideration. NJ has a somewhat similar player in the system in Daniil Orlov, but you can never have too many ultra-fast defensemen who specialize in strong defensive play.

In the NHL, “shutdown” means size, particularly right now.

We don’t draft for size even in shutdown defensemen (because we’re weird) but other teams are, Detroit being an almost comical example.

Muggli has 12 points in 42 in the NL at 17 though, which is exceptional for that age, so I see why he would go higher.

(Just to be clear, it’s impossible to tell what that production means, because it’s 12 points lol.)

But if he can’t produce in the NHL he won’t play at that size.

Orlov was a 4th Round pick and pretty productive in the MHL.

I’m not arguing against Muggli in the 3rd, since he done well in the NL he’ll probably be gone. That’s pretty rare and almost every recent defensemen whose done that in the NHL (Josi, Sieg, Berni, Moser).

 

[StevenToddIves]

I’m going to put you to work, Steven. Haha…if you did make a list of your preferred targets for the Devils 3rd round pick, what would your top 5-10 look like?

As always, greatly appreciate your contributions to this board. We are very fortunate to have someone as astute as yourself helping us learn more about these prospects!!

This is a great question.

I think a lot of who the Devils should take at #74 has to do with who the Devils take at #10 overall, especially since NJ lacks a 2nd round pick.

This is to say that LD Matvei Shuravin or LD Daniil Ustinkov would be near or at the top of my *realistic* wish-list for the Devils 3rd rounder, but of course if the Devils took LD Zeev Buium at #10, I would no longer want a LD in the 3rd. I'd say the same about LW/C Yegor Surin, as the Devils need some power Fs in the pipeline, but if the Devils took Nygard at #10 this would also change the focus a bit.

The one exception would be C, which the Devils need to draft more than one, as the prospect pool up the middle is literally barren. I guess the pipe dream here would be NJ native and former Bergen Catholic standout John Mustard. Mustard is generally projected in the mid-2nd round range, so the Devils would likely need to trade up, but I think this certain ly should be considered a plausible scenario as the Devils are certainly more aware than any team of how good Mustard is. I will be writing up John Mustard in the next couple weeks and it's one of those draft profiles I'm really looking forward to.

Ultimately, it's a tough question because it's easier to say who you want at #10 (obviously because it's easier to project who will still be available with only 9 picks in the books) or who you want as an amorphous "late-round sleeper" (we can say with reasonable confidence Kevin He and Hiroki Gojsic won't be taken in the early rounds) than who you want at #74.

The easiest way to answer would be to highlight what I (and probably most of us) feel are the Devils' foremost organizational needs and name a few players who could conceivably still be around at #74 or with a minimal trade-up.

1 CENTERS: John Mustard, Kieron Walton, Kamil Bednarik, Linus Eriksson

2 POWER FORWARDS/SPEED WINGERS: Yegor Surin, Carson Wetsch, Herman Traff, Eriks Mateiko, Kevin He

3 LEFT D: Matvei Shuravin, Daniil Ustinkov, Leon Muggli, Veeti Vaisanen

Ultimately what makes this question impossible to answer is the "best player available" scenario of some player who has high-end potential falling for whatever reason. I mean, if Nikita Artamonov or Ryder Ritchie inexplicably fall to Round 3, you just take them regardless of perceived need and run away laughing.

 

[evnted]

2024 Draft Profile:

C Jack Berglund, Farjestad BK J20, Nationell

Berglund isn't a name who's received a lot of attention for his league play, but he's definitely gained a bit more traction internationally this season. The 6'2" 207lb center has played an important albeit unexciting role characterized by strong puck possession and impressive 200ft play. Although Berglund doesn't appear in many rankings, he does have a few bullish supporters in Craig Button, placing him in the middle of his 2nd round, and Central Scouting, who have him top 30 for EU skaters. Berglund offers some surprising skill for a big kid, but isn't without some translation concern.

Berglund is a possession monster. Sure, he benefits from his big frame and strength on the puck, that can't be denied, but there's much more to it. This player shows an impressive ability to extend his reach and apply proactive contact to shield the puck from defenders. He's also great at baiting stickchecks only to quickly (and repeatedly) cut back to find pockets of space to slip into. Berglund excels down low in this regard, and in fact if he's not carrying the puck into the zone, it's quite common to see him either crash the net or immediately dart behind it and prepare to work the opposition down. That said, he does have some solid handling and passing vision, which you might not anticipate for this archetype of player. Every so often he'll pull out an impressive dangle, or effortlessly thread a really narrow lane you didn't expect he'd be capable of hitting. Off puck, Berglund almost functions like a 3rd defender, showing maturity beyond his years in terms of dropping back and trying to maintain his gap on the puck carrier. The player might not excite you, especially when you start to seeing him defer to dump and chase hockey or prioritizing his defensive positioning over generating rushes, but there's an obvious, and respectable, safety to his game.

However, as a prospect, I don't know if I consider his projection to be as safe. See, for as easy as it is to envision his game slotting in a bottom 6 role on an NHL roster, there's a serious, potentially inhibiting aspect of his game: his speed/pace. If he had one or the other, I'd argue there's a clearer framework to build off of, but neither are particularly great. The player is slow, struggles to build speed, and has a stride that's both weak and choppy. He'll also simply stop moving his feet at times, particularly defensively and while trying to stickhandle. This presents a major problem. Berglund's expert defensive positioning is very easily mitigated by the fact that, and I mean this literally, many incoming attackers can just skate wide around him. It really is that easy sometimes. His dump and chase game and controlled entries relying on his stickhandling are also just as easily shut down if he's matching against even slightly mobile defenders. It is difficult to get too excited about his dominance on the puck when it seems like he can only inconsistently use it to his advantage, or at the very least requires smaller, more controlled areas of the ice to thrive.

There are times when I'm more excusing of skating concerns than others. Parascak, for example, offers way more upside, plays at a higher overall pace, and has shown improvement over the course of the year. When it comes to Berglund, it's harder to defend. We're talking a potentially glaring limitation for someone who is already fairly low upside and nowhere near the pace/forechecking intensity you'd typically want on a checking line. I really respect the player's two-way potential and appreciate that there's more handling skill than you typically see in this type of prospect. I even think there's a framework for an argument that adapting to a more contact focused game on smaller NA ice won't be as challenging for him. But that said, whichever team takes him will need to have a clear and immediate plan in place to begin working on his mobility. The Devils have done this before, so I'm fine to entertain him late in the draft if they're confident, but he likely won't be a primary target for me.

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

Here’s a pretty boring write up of Helenius playing with the Finnish men’s national team. Not a lot of valuable information but it’s got a good quote or two if you’re content-starved.

Helenius on track to 'be a great player in the NHL one day' | NHL.com

18-year-old forward youngest ever to represent Finland in World Championship

www.nhl.com

 

[TBF1972]

Habs fan passing by to say you guys are absolutely unbelievable. The write-ups/discussions on these prospects are amazing.

I was sent here by @Xirik a while ago and I've been binge-reading.

Some of you guys seriously need to team up and start a blog or something. Seriously, why not?

Pretty sure this is 10X better than most NHL draft sites. Might as well make some extra money, and who knows, maybe get a call from some NHL teams for a job (hopefully Montreal ).

And good call on the Solberg pick! His rise on the mocks has been insane!

@My3Sons @Ripshot 43 @Cheddabombs
he is not talking about you guys

 

[Ripshot 43]

@My3Sons @Ripshot 43 @Cheddabombs
he is not talking about you guys

 

[Cheddabombs]

@My3Sons @Ripshot 43 @Cheddabombs
he is not talking about you guys

I'd like to think my contributions are blog-worthy. Just a page full of Garfield pictures, memes, and the occasional one-liner that isn't very funny.

 

[TBF1972]

I'd like to think my contributions are blog-worthy. Just a page full of Garfield pictures, memes, and the occasional one-liner that isn't very funny.

you would make a good couch for our scouting team

 

[Guadana]

Watching the series of Florida vs rags.
No way I want Catton or Esierman or Sennecke. We really need in BPA as a scorer, two way player and interior forward Nygard. Its so sad we cant draft Lindstrom and Nygard in the same time.

 

[Cheddabombs]

you would make a good couch for our scouting team

 

[StevenToddIves]

2024 Draft Profile:

RW Hiroki Gojsic, Kelowna WHL
One of the problems with being a lower-profile draft eligible player is that, if you get off to a slow start to your season, many draft writers and scouts will write you off immediately as pretty much a non-prospect. This certainly happened with Gojsic, and as such I haven't seen a top 100 ranking of him anywhere. But a closer look under the surface shows a player who, by the end of the 2023-24 season was scoring at a PPG pace and offers serious upside concurrent with the high development arc he displayed during the course of the season.

Gojsic should immediately garner attention for his high-end size/skating combination. At 6'3-190 with very good skating speed and balance, he offers an immediate boost to the interior play and overall pace of any line he plays on. By the end of the season, he had been moved up on a regular basis to the Tij Iginla line, with the primary role of digging pucks out of the greasy areas and crashing the crease.

Gojsic's offensive skill set seems strong across the board, but it's difficult to gauge as he plays almost with a shyness, as if he is just starting to buy into his own ability. He is pretty much a catch-and-release player right now in the sense that he's really good at outracing and out battling opposition players to pucks, but once he gets it he prefers to immediately dish it off to one of his line-mates and head to the net. What's interesting is that Gojsic is smart with his passing, has a soft set of hands and is actually a very good shooter himself.

The same lack of proactiveness bleeds into his physical game. Gojsic is very athletic and usually the strongest player on the ice, but he rarely seeks out the big hit or any physical intimidation. I caught a game once where he was goaded into dropping the gloves and absolutely manhandled the player who was foolish enough to test him.

What gives me hope that Gojsic is a big-time sleeper candidate are his relative young age (May 2006 birthdate) and the fact that he improved so dramatically over the course of the season. It's still hard to say if that trend will continue through next season, but if it does you have a fast, 6'3-190 player with skill who could probably be drafted between Round 4-7. That's a chance I would certainly be willing to take in the late rounds of the 2024 NHL draft.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Watching the series of Florida vs rags.
No way I want Catton or Esierman or Sennecke. We really need in BPA as a scorer, two way player and interior forward Nygard. Its so sad we cant draft Lindstrom and Nygard in the same time.

I've been watching film on Andrew Basha all week, and he's actually a similar-type player to Sennecke who is even better in several respects. I went back and looked at more Sennecke tape and although he's bigger than Basha and a better puck-handler, I think Basha is a better skater and passer. Basha is better defensively and has a better motor, but Sennecke is more consistent on a game-to-game basis. I'm thinking these are both high-end offensive players who deserve to be ranked in the 20-25 range, but it's tough to fathom anyone considering them top 10 in the 2024 class.

Catton and Eiserman, however, will be considerations in this range. I don't want Eiserman either as there is just too much finger-crossing with a player flawed in so many respects, no matter what the upside. As everyone probably is aware, I'm a huge fan of Catton, I just don't think he's the right fit in New Jersey as the team is constructed. Terrific player? Yes. But the Devils need more speed and interior play in the top 9, and neither are Catton's bread and butter. Catton's dynamism mostly plays up when his team is set up in the offensive zone.

 

[My3Sons]

@My3Sons @Ripshot 43 @Cheddabombs
he is not talking about you guys

Oh please. You wish your bad puns were as bad as mine.

 

[evnted]

2024 Draft Profile:

C Nathan Villeneuve, Sudbury OHL

Villeneuve is a pretty classic throwback player. Although not super big, he plays a heavy and competitive game that prioritizes battling on all 200ft of the ice, making fairly straightforward plays with the puck, and getting under the opposition's skin as much as possible. His rankings generally start around the early 3rd round, though I should caution there's a chance he might slip due to some controversy. Not Trevor-Connelly-relentlessly-bullying-his-teammates level controversy, but still of concern. Villeneuve received a lengthy suspension for effectively placing a bounty on an opponent's head in a group chat after getting blown up on a hit.

Villeneuve offers an intense, high energy game designed to wear down the opposition. He forechecks extremely hard, plays about as physically as possible, and deliberately seeks out puck battles. He sort of bounced around Sudbury's lineup this season, which I think could partially explain his modest production, but it never really stopped him from playing his game. Villeneuve drives the net, fights for pucks, and competes for space around the crease. The description thus far probably makes him sound low upside, but he does have a respectable skill level. His skating is fluid, he accelerates very quickly, and he offers a pretty decent top speed (although he's inconsistent about hitting it). His shot is hard, off his stick quickly, and relatively threatening, particularly as a one-timer option. While Villeneuve might never be an outright sniper at the next level, he is generally very good about getting pucks through traffic and applying pressure. I also like his hand-eye ability, both as an offensive threat with impressive puck control and the ability to redirect pucks in front, and as a defensive threat with how seamlessly he can strip opposing puck carriers and get a counter rush going.

The remainder of his game is more or less just ok. He's not a tunnel visioned player nor is he reckless with the puck, but I doubt anyone is coming away from his tape thinking he's a real creative player or that he has a high level read of the ice. His pace can also waver at times, mainly away from puck. It's not so much a compete concern because he's still dropping back and trying to make plays, and not to mention he's certainly trusted with a heavy enough defensive assignment. But, you'll intermittently see him drop coverage from not moving his feet enough, and even offensively when his team has the puck there are times where he's content to let play come to him. I also think it's fair to question just how much offensive contribution he'll be able to bring long term. While he does have a good shot, and he can be a capable playmaker, I think when you start to look under the hood there's a lack of deception, a lack of anticipation, a bit of telegraphing going on, and really only an ability to attack space when he brute forces his way into it. Nothing glaring per se, but enough that could potentially hold him back from being a real play driver as he scales his game, or at the very least get him shifted to wing. Finally, and I doubt this will surprise anyone, he has some discipline issues, not so much from the standpoint of being chippy or willing to fight, but rather from taking really unnecessary and untimely penalties at times.

Villeneuve is pretty much built for playoff hockey, even including potentially being a bit of a psycho. He is the type of kid teams would hate to go against but love to have on their side. He's a punishing player who brings it every shift, and will still likely offer teams value even if the offense never scales. Villeneuve has some temperament issues to work through even beyond the bounty scandal, so I don't blame anyone who might be turned off by the player, but he's certainly intriguing for our roster given how frequently we can get pushed around. There's some McTavish-lite in him, so perhaps as Sudbury graduates the bigger names and begins to offer someone like Villeneuve (or teammate Kieron Walton as STI will tell everyone) some better looks and more consistent deployment, maybe we see that side of him pop off more. I think he's worth a look in the middle rounds.

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

Anyone in the mood for a mock draft in which Konsta Helenius is taken at #22 overall?

THW 2024 Mock NHL Draft Round 1: Our Writers Make Their Picks - The Hockey Writers Latest News, Analysis & More

With the 2024 NHL Entry Draft about a month away, it’s time for the THW writing staff to make their picks in the annual mock draft.

thehockeywriters.com

 

[StevenToddIves]

Anyone in the mood for a mock draft in which Konsta Helenius is taken at #22 overall?

THW 2024 Mock NHL Draft Round 1: Our Writers Make Their Picks - The Hockey Writers Latest News, Analysis & More

With the 2024 NHL Entry Draft about a month away, it’s time for the THW writing staff to make their picks in the annual mock draft.

thehockeywriters.com

"The Devils need a center so they pass up on a clear center in Helenius for a not-center who is listed as a center in Catton because OHL statistics."

 

[My3Sons]

2024 Draft Profile:

C Nathan Villeneuve, Sudbury OHL

Villeneuve is a pretty classic throwback player. Although not super big, he plays a heavy and competitive game that prioritizes battling on all 200ft of the ice, making fairly straightforward plays with the puck, and getting under the opposition's skin as much as possible. His rankings generally start around the early 3rd round, though I should caution there's a chance he might slip due to some controversy. Not Trevor-Connelly-relentlessly-bullying-his-teammates level controversy, but still of concern. Villeneuve received a lengthy suspension for effectively placing a bounty on an opponent's head in a group chat after getting blown up on a hit.

Villeneuve offers an intense, high energy game designed to wear down the opposition. He forechecks extremely hard, plays about as physically as possible, and deliberately seeks out puck battles. He sort of bounced around Sudbury's lineup this season, which I think could partially explain his modest production, but it never really stopped him from playing his game. Villeneuve drives the net, fights for pucks, and competes for space around the crease. The description thus far probably makes him sound low upside, but he does have a respectable skill level. His skating is fluid, he accelerates very quickly, and he offers a pretty decent top speed (although he's inconsistent about hitting it). His shot is hard, off his stick quickly, and relatively threatening, particularly as a one-timer option. While Villeneuve might never be an outright sniper at the next level, he is generally very good about getting pucks through traffic and applying pressure. I also like his hand-eye ability, both as an offensive threat with impressive puck control and the ability to redirect pucks in front, and as a defensive threat with how seamlessly he can strip opposing puck carriers and get a counter rush going.

The remainder of his game is more or less just ok. He's not a tunnel visioned player nor is he reckless with the puck, but I doubt anyone is coming away from his tape thinking he's a real creative player or that he has a high level read of the ice. His pace can also waver at times, mainly away from puck. It's not so much a compete concern because he's still dropping back and trying to make plays, and not to mention he's certainly trusted with a heavy enough defensive assignment. But, you'll intermittently see him drop coverage from not moving his feet enough, and even offensively when his team has the puck there are times where he's content to let play come to him. I also think it's fair to question just how much offensive contribution he'll be able to bring long term. While he does have a good shot, and he can be a capable playmaker, I think when you start to look under the hood there's a lack of deception, a lack of anticipation, a bit of telegraphing going on, and really only an ability to attack space when he brute forces his way into it. Nothing glaring per se, but enough that could potentially hold him back from being a real play driver as he scales his game, or at the very least get him shifted to wing. Finally, and I doubt this will surprise anyone, he has some discipline issues, not so much from the standpoint of being chippy or willing to fight, but rather from taking really unnecessary and untimely penalties at times.

Villeneuve is pretty much built for playoff hockey, even including potentially being a bit of a psycho. He is the type of kid teams would hate to go against but love to have on their side. He's a punishing player who brings it every shift, and will still likely offer teams value even if the offense never scales. Villeneuve has some temperament issues to work through even beyond the bounty scandal, so I don't blame anyone who might be turned off by the player, but he's certainly intriguing for our roster given how frequently we can get pushed around. There's some McTavish-lite in him, so perhaps as Sudbury graduates the bigger names and begins to offer someone like Villeneuve (or teammate Kieron Walton as STI will tell everyone) some better looks and more consistent deployment, maybe we see that side of him pop off more. I think he's worth a look in the middle rounds.

As long as he’s an equal opportunity sociopath it’s fine. There is a difference between that and the sort of hatred shown by Connolly (allegedly).

 

[Brodeur]

2024 Draft Profile:

C Jack Berglund, Farjestad BK J20, Nationell

Still feels like yesterday that I was expecting big things from Berglund's dad and Brian Gionta to replace Alexander Mogilny.

 

[evnted]

2024 Draft Profile:

LD Niilopekka Muhonen, KalPa U20 SM-sarja

Muhonen came into the season as a potential 1st round option and it goes without saying things didn't work out that way. At this point, the 6'4" 190lb shutdown defender is now projected to be more of a middle round option (outside of Craig Button's striking top 40 placement). A late cut from the Finnish U18 team potentially halted what otherwise could have been a momentum builder for him, but there's still some reason to be interested.

The good with Muhonen is quite easy to see. He's big, he's mobile, and he's an oppressive defense presence. Muhonen's stride is fluid and deceptively powerful; this player can cover a lot of ice very quickly. His edges don't quite compare, but there really isn't a weakness to his mobility. Muhonen also loves physical play. The actual results can be a little inconsistent, you'll sometimes see him get shrugged off more easily than he should, but he plays into contact all the time. He loves to staple forecheckers to the boards, he's always looking for a hit or to throw that extra jab in, and he's really good at engulfing puck carriers. The combination of this physical intensity, his great skating, and an active defensive stick makes him a great one on one defender. Muhonen is also a capable puck carrier. He won't do anything special with it, but he's poised in transition and typically not making poor decisions under pressure.

Muhonen is not quite low offense, he's no offense. I don't think it's a massive issue considering he wouldn't be getting drafted for his offensive contributions anyway, but there really isn't much of anything there. In fact, I have seen so few offensive plays that I don't even know how to comment on his tools, I pretty much only saw him lob the puck at the net from the blue line. But there are more pressing concerns than that. This player can have some exeedingly bad awareness at times. He is very easily baited by, and slow to react to, cuts along the boards which can really cut back on what should otherwise be a clear strength of his game. His vision on the puck, or should I say lack thereof at times, can also produce some glaringly bad turnovers in his own zone. I even saw one play, and it's hard to capture the absurdity of it over text, where he just straight up skated directly into his own puck-carrying defender while looking at him with zero pressure around either of them, which led to both of them falling over and a trailing forechecker tapping in an easy goal.

Here's the thing. I would love to add a big, mobile, shutdown defender to the roster, even if his outlook doesn't really extend that much past the 3rd pair. The problem is, I would not love to expend the pick necessary to be able to take him before another team does. This type of prospect, even accounting for all the potential flaws in his projection, is still decently valuable and in my opinion has the potential to go earlier than expected. I would entertain him as the draft went on, but considering the 60+ spot gap between our first pick and our next, I would be looking for someone with a less concerning mental game and a more expansive projection.

 

[HBK27]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5518310/2024/05/28/nhl-draft-rankings-2024-prospects/

Pronman's top prospects:

Tier 1 - Elite NHL Player

1. Celebrini

Tier 2 - Bubble Elite NHL Player and NHL All-Star

2. Levshunov

Tier 3 - NHL All-Star

3. Yakemchuk
4. Silayev
5. Buium

Tier 4 - Bubble NHL All-Star and top of the lineup player

6. Catton
7. Sennecke
8. Demidov

Tier 5 - Top of the lineup player

9. Parekh
10. Lindstrom
11. Dickinson

Tier 6 - Bubble top and middle of the lineup player

12. Solberg
13. Iginla
14. Helenius
15. Jiricek
16. Eiserman
17. Brandsegg-Nygard
18. Chernyshov

 

[evnted]

2024 Draft Profile:

RD Tory Pitner, Youngstown USHL

For as much as we like to champion compete and hockey IQ above all else, Pitner might test the limits of that projection. It's not that he does anything wrong or has any major weakness, rather, he's a 6'1" 180lb shutdown defender with the most average skillset you can find. Pitner has received some 3rd round nods but has largely gone unranked, and while a specific placement for him is hard to commit to, he is very much worth paying attention to.

Pitner understands the defensive end at a level that very few in this class do. We're not talking just good reads or competitive physical play, both of which he does offer, we're talking outright controlling the opposition's attack. Pitner tightly maintains his gap and aggressively defends middle ice, yet you'll see, particularly while defending the rush, that he'll bait lanes for puck carriers to try to drive around him only for him to close in on them and give them no other options. His positioning, timing, and defensive stick placement are all near flawless. He has an impeccable ability to tie up forecheckers along the boards and buy time for his linemates to come in to support. And even better than that, Pitner is not just alert on the puck when he picks it up, he already knows what to do with it. This is a player who you can tell is mapping out his next two, three, four steps before he's even making a play on the puck carrier. As a result, he has an excellent ability to catch defenders off guard and get a counter attack going almost instantaneously thanks to his great anticipation, vision, and decisions on the puck.

As good as this sounds, the reason he's not ranked much higher is because his game is hard to project with what he currently offers. It's not that Pitner doesn't skate sufficiently well, or move the puck well enough, or have the ability to play the body, it's that, at the end of the day, we're trying to project a shutdown defender who is not big, fast, or toolsy (or even proven at a high level, as in the case of Leon Muggli). While something like his quick reads or outlet passing should scale without much issue, it is completely fair to question whether or not he'll be as effective defensively once he's facing bigger, faster, and stronger opposition. Will he be able to bait forecheckers as reliably? Even if he does, will he be able to close in on them as quickly? Even if he does, will he be able to keep them contained as effectively? The question of scaling is vital here. Everything works now because he is basically a defensive genius and there isn't a major tool disparity across the USHL, so he's not typically struggling to keep up with forecheckers or getting shrugged off when he plays the body. The closer to the NHL he gets, the thinner the margin of error is going to be. And while the offensive side of things is not particularly important for his projection, it is still worth noting that if he's producing, it is very reliant on his linemates: hitting a breakout opportunity that was created for him, chucking a redirect-friendly shot toward the net, making a well-timed pinch when his team has numbers. He moves well at the point, and can even activate at times, but in terms of pure tools his shot is far from threatening, and he isn't impressing anyone with his passing lanes.

So, again, we are left with the ultimate question of just how far a truly elite understanding of the game can take a prospect. I want to believe here. Pitner is not undersized to the point of concern, nor is there any reason to believe his skating won't hold up at higher levels. His poise on the puck in transition and split second passing decisions provide at least something to build off of offensively. He might only ever top out as a 4 or 5D on a good day, which coupled with his size may have scouts looking the other way regardless, but his strength and speed will always have more of an avenue to improve than his reads and instincts would at this point. It also should be noted that he's committed to a great Denver program that can do a heck of a job with its players, as we've seen with fellow 2024 draftee Zeev Buium's progression this season. Pitner might not make a whole lot of sense for us with our 3rd round selection, but I definitely would keep an eye on him, particularly if he starts to slip.

 

[StevenToddIves]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5518310/2024/05/28/nhl-draft-rankings-2024-prospects/

Pronman's top prospects:

Tier 1 - Elite NHL Player

1. Celebrini

Tier 2 - Bubble Elite NHL Player and NHL All-Star

2. Levshunov

Tier 3 - NHL All-Star

3. Yakemchuk
4. Silayev
5. Buium

Tier 4 - Bubble NHL All-Star and top of the lineup player

6. Catton
7. Sennecke
8. Demidov

Tier 5 - Top of the lineup player

9. Parekh
10. Lindstrom
11. Dickinson

Tier 6 - Bubble top and middle of the lineup player

12. Solberg
13. Iginla
14. Helenius
15. Jiricek
16. Eiserman
17. Brandsegg-Nygard
18. Chernyshov

In all my years of reading Pronman -- and I really like him as a person, a writer, and respect the hell out of him -- I have never disagreed with anything so much as his utter dismissal of Demidov.

To me, Demidov is probably closer to Celebrini at #1 than he is to the rest of the 2024 class. He's a truly special offensive player whose combination of passing vision, puck handling and offensive hockey IQ are tops in the draft without even a close challenge. Though he lacks a discernible weakness, his skating is notably in the "above average" range, which is pretty much the only concern whatsoever. But if you watch prospects like I have and Pronman certainly has, I'm not sure how one could watch Demidov without knowing almost immediately that he's special.

 

[HBK27]

In all my years of reading Pronman -- and I really like him as a person, a writer, and respect the hell out of him -- I have never disagreed with anything so much as his utter dismissal of Demidov.

To me, Demidov is probably closer to Celebrini at #1 than he is to the rest of the 2024 class. He's a truly special offensive player whose combination of passing vision, puck handling and offensive hockey IQ are tops in the draft without even a close challenge. Though he lacks a discernible weakness, his skating is notably in the "above average" range, which is pretty much the only concern whatsoever. But if you watch prospects like I have and Pronman certainly has, I'm not sure how one could watch Demidov without knowing almost immediately that he's special.

FWIW, here's his write up on Demidov - critical of his skating and size. Demidov was the only prospect on his list to get an "elite" skill grade in any category.