Prospect Info: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[StevenToddIves]

2024 Draft Profile:

LW Kevin He, Niagara OHL
This is a story about me and He. Where Kevin He is concerned, he's almost a non-entity for draft writers leading up to the 2024 NHL draft. He's scarcely found ranked at all, even on lists which last all the way through a top 100. His 53 points in 62 games didn't seem to register whatsoever with the stat/analytic crowds. There is a real possibility this is a player you can draft as late as Round 5 or 6.

Where I am concerned, I've been writing about drafts for myriad websites for about 20 years, and I'm not sure I'm going to be able to keep doing this. When I'm done, I'll say my very favorite accomplishment was calling it right on sleepers -- kids who didn't get the attention for whatever reason -- who went on to have successful NHL careers. As gratifying as it is to see any player you lauded in any round become a good NHL player, it's even nicer when that player was ignored by the draft community as a whole, as with a Jesper Bratt or Adam Fox.

Kevin He is one such player.

First, let's take a look at some of the context of his 2023-24 season with Niagara. Playing as the youngest regular (4/30/06 birthday) on one of the most inept teams in the entire CHL, Kevin He topped 30 goals (31) despite playing on a line he was forced to drive almost singlehandedly against universally superior competition. His -13 rating was actually the best of any top 9 forward on his team, where teammates were regularly in the -25 to -35 range. Every night, opposing coaches matched their best defensemen and defensive forwards up against He and He alone.

Now, let's take a look at the player himself. Kevin He is one of the fastest, most explosive skaters in the entire 2024 class. He reaches top speeds in a heartbeat, is hard on his skates, and can change directions in a blink. He also features a near-elite-level shot which can beat a goaltender clean from outside the circles. His one-timer is outstanding and his puck decisions are also quite good -- He won't force his shot, but is extremely adept at using his speed to create space and allow his linemates to get open. While not a high-creativity passer, He is effective at moving the puck and his high IQ usually sees him making smart choices. He is more of a finisher than a line-driver, even though he was forced into that role on a, well... pathetic Ice Dogs team.

He has a good set of hands and plays two-ways, though it's tough to gauge the overall defensive play of a player who played on a team which was routinely caved in by the opposition. His compete level is certainly high-end -- you notice his tenacious motor and overall intensity even on shifts when his team does not touch the puck. The 6'0-180 forward is not proactively physical, but he routinely is willing to take the puck to the net and fight in the dirty areas, and is not afraid to mix it up with larger defenders who are obviously keying on him in particular.

Kevin He has sleeper written all over him. The elite skating, the near-elite shot, the smarts and high compete are all clearly there, while the lack of on-paper results are easily explainable when one watches how utterly poor his team was and how opposing defenses revolved around him. When you add in a late birthday and the fact we've never really seen him play alongside high-talent linemates, the idea of snatching him up in Rounds 4-6 of the 2024 draft gets even more tantalizing. Maybe I'm wrong, but this is not a kid with any reasonable chance to get drafted in the first two rounds, so the payoff of an extremely speedy NHL 2nd line scoring winger is stratospherically higher than any discernible risk. And I'll also add that his compete and commitment to team play gives He a high floor as a checking-line speed demon.

Ultimately, 20+ years of draft writing have taught me to trust my instincts and not really care that a player has not received due attention from the hockey draft media. As such, Kevin He will be in my top 50 for the class of 2024 because elite skating + high ceiling + high floor + great intangibles usually equals a successful NHL player.

 

[StevenToddIves]

As most of you know, I am usually loathe to post highlight videos of prospects because I don't think they tell the story of a player. But because Kevin He-to-the-Devils-in-the-late-rounds is one of my foremost dreams for the 2024 draft, I wanted to give you all an idea of why.

Though this entire video is impressive, I would like people to pay particularly close attention to the 2-on-2 goal vs. North Bay which starts at the 34 second mark. He starts the play by using his quick hands to swiftly settle a bouncing puck and send a perfect, no-look backhand pass to Zito. He's then hit full-on by the North Bay defender, a shot which would send most 17 year old forwards to the ice. But He manages to absorb the hit, and do an almost impossible on-skates pirouette. Somehow he regains his composure and bearings and lands in perfect scoring position a few feet from the net, already anticipating the return pass which he buries for the goal. It's just a high level play which makes you wonder how much he would have scored playing with better talent on an actually competent team.

 

[My3Sons]

As most of you know, I am usually loathe to post highlight videos of prospects because I don't think they tell the story of a player. But because Kevin He-to-the-Devils-in-the-late-rounds is one of my foremost dreams for the 2024 draft, I wanted to give you all an idea of why.

Though this entire video is impressive, I would like people to pay particularly close attention to the 2-on-2 goal vs. North Bay which starts at the 34 second mark. He starts the play by using his quick hands to swiftly settle a bouncing puck and send a perfect, no-look backhand pass to Zito. He's then hit full-on by the North Bay defender, a shot which would send most 17 year old forwards to the ice. But He manages to absorb the hit, and do an almost impossible on-skates pirouette. Somehow he regains his composure and bearings and lands in perfect scoring position a few feet from the net, already anticipating the return pass which he buries for the goal. It's just a high level play which makes you wonder how much he would have scored playing with better talent on an actually competent team.

That is exactly the kind of player NJ should be targeting in later rounds. The team needs to supplement the core with faster players and he sounds like a guy that has the chance to pan out if out ina position to succeed.

 

[forceten]

Man, can we flip Palat for a second rounder? There are players I’d love to take a swing at

 

[My3Sons]

Man, can we flip Palat for a second rounder? There are players I’d love to take a swing at

Doesn’t he have significant trade protection

 

[forceten]

Doesn’t he have significant trade protection

I think so but we can make him an offer he can’t refuse

 

[StevenToddIves]

That is exactly the kind of player NJ should be targeting in later rounds. The team needs to supplement the core with faster players and he sounds like a guy that has the chance to pan out if out ina position to succeed.

I've been saying at length how the Devils need to re-commit to greater team speed. Kevin He is the type of player the Devils need to be targeting -- fast as hell, high-motor and quite possibly with more skill than most realize -- in the mid-to-late rounds.

If I were Tom Fitzgerald, I would give a bump-up to certain types of players in terms of draft rating to fulfill needs in the organization:

1) Depth Centers -- though NJ is set at 1/2 with Hischier and Hughes for the foreseeable future, the prospect pipeline has virtually nothing behind them.

2) Team Speed -- at any position the Devils draft, they need to be looking to compliment the up-tempo players already in the core. A decrease in team speed was certainly a factor in the Devils decline last season. The Devils cannot be spending any more draft picks on players like Salminen or Hurtig who have difficulty keeping up with game pace.

3) Interior/Power Forwards -- it's no question the Devils get knocked around a bit. Though the addition of Timo Meier helps, the only proactively physical forward the Devils have drafted in the past half-decade was Chase Stillman, who was taken far too early. If the Devils can find a guy who accomplishes this and also contributes to the overall team speed (maybe Brandsegg-Nygard in the 1st round, maybe Yegor Surin in the 3rd), that would be a huge add.

4) Left Defense -- this is not a desperate need as the Devils have an all-star young LD in Luke Hughes and some nice future depth prospects at the position in Vilen, Misyul, Orlov and Karpovich. But it's a bit more of a need than RD especially in the top 4.

 

[Sheros expletives]

I've been saying at length how the Devils need to re-commit to greater team speed. Kevin He is the type of player the Devils need to be targeting -- fast as hell, high-motor and quite possibly with more skill than most realize -- in the mid-to-late rounds.

If I were Tom Fitzgerald, I would give a bump-up to certain types of players in terms of draft rating to fulfill needs in the organization:

1) Depth Centers -- though NJ is set at 1/2 with Hischier and Hughes for the foreseeable future, the prospect pipeline has virtually nothing behind them.

2) Team Speed -- at any position the Devils draft, they need to be looking to compliment the up-tempo players already in the core. A decrease in team speed was certainly a factor in the Devils decline last season. The Devils cannot be spending any more draft picks on players like Salminen or Hurtig who have difficulty keeping up with game pace.

3) Interior/Power Forwards -- it's no question the Devils get knocked around a bit. Though the addition of Timo Meier helps, the only proactively physical forward the Devils have drafted in the past half-decade was Chase Stillman, who was taken far too early. If the Devils can find a guy who accomplishes this and also contributes to the overall team speed (maybe Brandsegg-Nygard in the 1st round, maybe Yegor Surin in the 3rd), that would be a huge add.

4) Left Defense -- this is not a desperate need as the Devils have an all-star young LD in Luke Hughes and some nice future depth prospects at the position in Vilen, Misyul, Orlov and Karpovich. But it's a bit more of a need than RD especially in the top 4.

I'm all for drafting him just for the opportunity to have He-man on the team.

 

[Xirik]

I'm all for drafting him just for the opportunity to have He-man on the team.

Jack Hughes probably

" Hey He-man.....WHATS GOING ON! and I say heeeeeyyy......"

 

[Guadana]

As most of you know, I am usually loathe to post highlight videos of prospects because I don't think they tell the story of a player. But because Kevin He-to-the-Devils-in-the-late-rounds is one of my foremost dreams for the 2024 draft, I wanted to give you all an idea of why.

Though this entire video is impressive, I would like people to pay particularly close attention to the 2-on-2 goal vs. North Bay which starts at the 34 second mark. He starts the play by using his quick hands to swiftly settle a bouncing puck and send a perfect, no-look backhand pass to Zito. He's then hit full-on by the North Bay defender, a shot which would send most 17 year old forwards to the ice. But He manages to absorb the hit, and do an almost impossible on-skates pirouette. Somehow he regains his composure and bearings and lands in perfect scoring position a few feet from the net, already anticipating the return pass which he buries for the goal. It's just a high level play which makes you wonder how much he would have scored playing with better talent on an actually competent team.

At least we should not have problems with his pronoun.

Draft Capsule:

C Macklin Celebrini, Boston University NCAA
Make no mistake, Macklin Celebrini is the #1 player in the 2024 draft class. While not as fun to watch or offensively skilled as Ivan Demidov, Celebrini is as easy to project as your future #1 center as any player in recent memory.

Quite simply, Celebrini is awesome at absolutely everything hockey.

While he lacks the "super-power" type singular talent of many #1 picks -- for instance, Bedard's shot or Hughes' skating/puck-handling or Dahlin's sheer athleticism -- he checks literally every box on the scouting sheet at an elite or near-elite level.

Celebrini is almost boring in his general flawlessness. He's a great shooter with great hands and great vision who plays a high-IQ, two-way game with the type of high-compete and character which oozes "future NHL captain". His skating is very good, not great, but with a player of his completeness and intelligence, it plays up as a higher-end tool. As I often say, when you can combine near-perfect positioning with a high-level anticipation of the game, you're often in the right place to begin with and your skating destinations are never as far. But again, he's also a very good skater -- I just don't want anyone to confuse him with a Hughes brother in this respect.

Celebrini's downside is probably a point-per-game, two-way second-line center. I mean, that's if he's a complete bust. He's that good. His upside? I'd say a top-line, all-situations center who captains his team to perennial Cup contention with multiple 100-point seasons. He's the best player in the draft, and the type of franchise player you build your team around.

Okay lets start to play in mental gymnastic.

Lets change name Macklin Celebrini to Mikhail Prazdnikov, Ivan Demidov to John Demidoff.
Or even Mickael Celebrinstrom.

I have many questions to Levshunov, he is my top-10 pick but not my top-5. But how he would ranked if he would be Canadien defenseman. And its not about Levshunov.
Its about big Canadien Center Lindstrom who can score goal per game and play interior game(just imagine if he would not be so injured and Celebrini would not be so canadien) and other canadien very flashy winger John Demidoff who is making fools out from opposition.
If Macklin would be Mikhail with the same skill level, he wouldnt be 1OA definitely, if he would be Mickael, there is a big chance he wouldnt be 1OA. At least it would be debatable.

We saw example year ago, Im happy for montreal for making fools from themselves. But still. Return to the topic.

I would still pick Celebrini 1OA, because I like his combo of skills. But when any visitor of this board is tryin to tell that we should pick Catton or Sennecke over Helenius or Nygard, so lets admit that Demidov (or Lindstrom) should be higher in the draft, because both are more dynamic in their role. Do I think this way? No, I dont. But its the same logic for other players.

Do I think there is a clean space for debates? Yes. There is a clear reasons for debates. About potential, not about 1OA pick, of course I understand who will be picked by sharks. And its not the case of Uglynier, I dont think that we have "Stuzle"-analog on the draft like I thought in 2020. Or 2022 with Wright, who was number 4 on my list and he achieved this number four just of the my fear of demoting him in rankings as much. Celebrini deserving to be number one. But not as a clear number one.

 

[SKNJD9]

Which god do I have to pray to for Dickinson to somehow drop to 10 ?

 

[Shakir ONeal]

He is Him

 

[StevenToddIves]

Which god do I have to pray to for Dickinson to somehow drop to 10 ?

It's not impossible, it's just not likely. Dickinson's mix of, well... everything NHL GMs want in a defenseman? It's uncommon to say the least. Fast, big, strong, smart, skilled and a character kid. Of course, he lacks a singular standout ability which would see him go top 3, and that's why it's possible -- though remotely -- that he falls.

Dickinson is not Jake Sanderson when it comes to shut-down D, and he's never going to be a 60+ point guy. He's simply got all the tools to be a very, very good NHL player for a very long time. Though I'm not making a precise stylistic comparison, think Noah Hanifin or Jake Chychrun -- he's that type of talent. He's never going to win a Norris, but you'll want him on your team for sure.

 

[My3Sons]

Which god do I have to pray to for Dickinson to somehow drop to 10 ?

Just pray to me. My mock has Celebrini dropping to ten after a photo of him in a gas mask is leaked by someone that ESPN won’t name.

 

[StevenToddIves]

At least we should not have problems with his pronoun.


Okay lets start to play in mental gymnastic.

Lets change name Macklin Celebrini to Mikhail Prazdnikov, Ivan Demidov to John Demidoff.
Or even Mickael Celebrinstrom.

I have many questions to Levshunov, he is my top-10 pick but not my top-5. But how he would ranked if he would be Canadien defenseman. And its not about Levshunov.
Its about big Canadien Center Lindstrom who can score goal per game and play interior game(just imagine if he would not be so injured and Celebrini would not be so canadien) and other canadien very flashy winger John Demidoff who is making fools out from opposition.
If Macklin would be Mikhail with the same skill level, he wouldnt be 1OA definitely, if he would be Mickael, there is a big chance he wouldnt be 1OA. At least it would be debatable.

We saw example year ago, Im happy for montreal for making fools from themselves. But still. Return to the topic.

I would still pick Celebrini 1OA, because I like his combo of skills. But when any visitor of this board is tryin to tell that we should pick Catton or Sennecke over Helenius or Nygard, so lets admit that Demidov (or Lindstrom) should be higher in the draft, because both are more dynamic in their role. Do I think this way? No, I dont. But its the same logic for other players.

Do I think there is a clean space for debates? Yes. There is a clear reasons for debates. About potential, not about 1OA pick, of course I understand who will be picked by sharks. And its not the case of Uglynier, I dont think that we have "Stuzle"-analog on the draft like I thought in 2020. Or 2022 with Wright, who was number 4 on my list and he achieved this number four just of the my fear of demoting him in rankings as much. Celebrini deserving to be number one. But not as a clear number one.

Agreed with a lot of what you're saying.

I agree that Celebrini and Demidov are probably in the same tier, above the rest of the 2024 class. That's why it's as shocking to me as it is to you when we see people ranking Demidov #3, much less #4 or #5 (shame on you Chris Peters).

As far as the Nygard/Helenius vs. Catton/Sennecke argument, I don't think Catton would be a *bad* pick because he 's clearly in the same tier as Nygard and Helenius. I don't think Catton. is the *right* pick stylistically, however, at least for New Jersey.

As for Sennecke -- well, that's the talk that drives me crazy because I don't think he's in the same tier as the other three guys we're talking about. Sennecke is a guy who, if he were Russian, probably wouldn't be talked about as a top 15 pick at all -- proven by the fact that Chernyshov, a better player by all my estimations, is universally ranked lower.

 

[evnted]

2024 Draft Profile:

LW/C Luke Misa, Mississauga OHL

While Misa himself hasn't been that peculiar of a player to me, the rhetoric surrounding him has. For a lot of the year, the tiny 05 pivot (who almost assuredly slides to wing long term) had been receiving 1st round grades, or even top half of the 1st round grades, from armchair analysts and I simply could not process what they were seeing in him. There's some interesting skill there, don't get me wrong, I just couldn't wrap my head around the projection, especially seeing him ranked over the likes of Helenius and Chernyshov. Thankfully, much of that has cooled off as the season's gone on (which I don't really think is attributed to Misa's game getting worse so much as it's just these projections getting more realistic), and I find it much fairer to the player since it places him in a more appropriate 2nd or even early 3rd round range.

Misa is an explosive skater whose processing ability on the puck and anticipation off it both match his elite level speed. This player will straight up rocket out of the defensive zone and is probably one of the fastest kids in transition in the entire class. Defenders need to be aware of his position at all times because he is a clear breakaway threat thanks to his lightning quick acceleration and excellent off puck reads that can really punish for mistakes. On top of that, there's virtually no handling concerns at top speed either. Misa loves give and go's and makes plenty of strong decisions with the puck thanks to his high end vision and ability to stretch defenses to buy room. He combines these tools with an elite playmaking game and quick wrister he can get off in tight to show he's more than just a transition threat. Misa is also extremely elusive in small pockets of space thanks to his great cuts, awareness, and creativity with the puck.

One of the main problems with Misa, though, is that if he doesn't have the puck on his stick, he can absolutely fade into the background at times. His defensive intensity comes and goes, he loves to cheat for breakouts, and he can be very reliant on his linemates getting him the puck to start a rush. Even offensively, he is an inconsistent forechecker and struggles to hold up physically in puck battles, that is, when he engages. A lot of his off puck movement in the offensive zone is short, subtle movements to open lanes, which works at the junior level, but is likely not as scalable against bigger, faster opponents. I also think it's fair to question his offensive upside in general. I love betting on vision and ideas, but so much of his production is solely based on that rather than real, hard skill, and for a player who struggles to score from range, and whose playmaking game can rely on perimeter play, that does become a bit of a concern. I should also reiterate that he is tiny. This is not a Poirier case of being small yet sturdy, Misa will very commonly get forced to the outside because he simply does not have the physical stature to challenge middle ice.

This probably came off a bit more critical than I intended, likely due to the fact that I spent the first couple months of the season having to constantly talk down his lofty, unsubstantiated placements. Misa is an elite transition threat whose vision and processing offers legitimately exciting upside, even with some significant translation concerns attached to it. The most encouraging aspect of his projection is that a lot of his deficiencies are not entirely absent from his game, only inconsistently applied or not generating consistent results. He will compete for pucks, he will challenge in the corners, and he will attack the middle, it's all just done so intermittently it's hard to say any one of these will be a staple of his game long term. I don't think Misa solves a lot of problems for this roster, but what he does well he does at a near elite level, and there's no denying that his speed and vision would greatly complement what we already have. Misa feels like a kid who could slip, and I certainly wouldn't not take him if he's available in the middle rounds.

 

[Guadana]

Agreed with a lot of what you're saying.

I agree that Celebrini and Demidov are probably in the same tier, above the rest of the 2024 class. That's why it's as shocking to me as it is to you when we see people ranking Demidov #3, much less #4 or #5 (shame on you Chris Peters).

As far as the Nygard/Helenius vs. Catton/Sennecke argument, I don't think Catton would be a *bad* pick because he 's clearly in the same tier as Nygard and Helenius. I don't think Catton. is the *right* pick stylistically, however, at least for New Jersey.

As for Sennecke -- well, that's the talk that drives me crazy because I don't think he's in the same tier as the other three guys we're talking about. Sennecke is a guy who, if he were Russian, probably wouldn't be talked about as a top 15 pick at all -- proven by the fact that Chernyshov, a better player by all my estimations, is universally ranked lower.

I have Nygard and Helenius in the same tier as Catton, just higher, little bit higher. This does not contradict the thought about Celebrini and Demidov. "Popular" idea is about having Catton hard over Nygard and Helenius. Just because of pure offensive potential based on flashy skill. Like I said - as Demidov who is much flashier than Celebrini. Celebrini in the same time is covering a lot more space, better skater with better compete level. As Nygard and Helenius over Catton.

In case of Sennecke - its really strange because he wasnt the only one who was successful in play off. But he was the only one who played with near the best league player in play off. And huge part of people who supporting Sennecke were the same people who were against "drafting for size". And I wouldnt bet on him on the boards against Nygard, Iginla, Chernyshov and Helenius. Positional play, 200 foot game and defensive game are really not so great for a player who isnt fast from the start and trying to be sold as top-10 potential pick.

 

[evnted]

2024 Draft Profile:

LD Leon Muggli, EV Zug NL

Muggli is the type of defender who probably excites real scouts more than he excites internet scouts. Sure, at 6'0" and 170lb he's a bit undersized for a defender, but we're talking one of the easiest, most translatable shutdown projections in the class. Muggli played extremely well for a top end team in an ever improving Swiss National League, and there doesn't really seem to be anything to his game that will significantly hold him back long term. At this point he's viewed as more of a strong 2nd round selection, but I don't think late 1st should be out of the question.

Muggli's skating, particularly at the point, is sublime. He's not quite blazingly fast, but his four-way mobility is top of the line elite, and when combined with his fantastic composure on the puck, he becomes very hard for opposing forwards to catch. Muggli's activations are also extremely well timed, and while he certainly has a penchant for playing it safe with the puck, he rarely ever makes a wrong decision. His passing vision is high end, and that's both as a breakout option and as an offensive zone play facilitator. He always seems to be moving which, thanks to his smarts and great vision, constantly keeps him an option for his linemates, especially off the rush. This is a player who seemingly always has a strong read of the ice in front of him. He is quick and effective in transition, both as a carrier and distributor, and his on puck awareness coupled with his great poise largely helps him avoid turnovers, be it forced or unforced.

Muggli's bread and butter, though, is his defensive game. His rush defense, man on man play, and in zone coverage all project as very good. Muggli combines cerebral timing, competitive body play, and savvy active stick positioning to offer an extremely mature and effective off puck game. He's strong in battles, quick to grab and move loose pucks, and always willing to play through contact if needed. It's easy to cite his mobility as one of the reasons to not be concerned about his smaller frame, but I think there's a stronger argument: his physical instincts. Muggli excels at proactive contact. He routinely engages oncoming forecheckers to buy himself time and space, and he has a great ability to use his body to shield attackers from the puck.

The drawbacks exist, but aren't of great concern to me. Most notably, a quicker first step would go a long way to helping him generate some separation off the rush. He has the reads and he has the shiftiness, but gaining a bit more speed would make him that much harder to catch. The other concern I have is that, while we see time and time again that professional league play can mask offensive upside in prospects, I am not as convinced that's the case here, or at least that there isn't a whole lot being hidden. Muggli is a player who succeeds because he is supremely effective at what he does, but that's not from ++ (or perhaps even +) offensive tools, it's from his great defensive framework and ability to command the ice on the puck. I know his NL draft year production as at near historic levels, but I think it misrepresents his upside a bit. There is an element to his projection that, should he struggle to adapt to the NA game for whatever reason, you don't really have any fallback tools to build off of to help recover his projection.

Regardless, Muggli is the perfect representation of a modern day shutdown defensive prospect. He has high end mobility and is more reliant on reads and anticipation than he is on outright overpowering forecheckers or constantly collapsing in on his own net. He has perfectly capable puck skill and impressive offensive instincts to jump up in play and keep himself an option in all three zones. Muggli has very little risk attached to him and, while the upside might not be that exciting, projects to be a transition monster and a player that pretty much any team could use. For us specifically, he not only addresses a need of being a mobile, shutdown LD, but would fit in flawlessly with the rest of our defensive core and even overall team structure. We can only hope his nationality and lack of high end tools help him slip to the 3rd round.

 

[Forge]

Elliott groenewold probably won't ever be an offensive producer, but is the defense and skating potentially good enough to be a legit top 4 defensive compliment to a true 1 or 3? Obviously we are talking about a longer development

 

[njdevils1982]

He is Him

He Hate Me

 

[Habs7631]

Habs fan passing by to say you guys are absolutely unbelievable. The write-ups/discussions on these prospects are amazing.

I was sent here by @Xirik a while ago and I've been binge-reading.

Some of you guys seriously need to team up and start a blog or something. Seriously, why not?

Pretty sure this is 10X better than most NHL draft sites. Might as well make some extra money, and who knows, maybe get a call from some NHL teams for a job (hopefully Montreal ).

And good call on the Solberg pick! His rise on the mocks has been insane!

 

[longislanddevil]

Just pray to me. My mock has Celebrini dropping to ten after a photo of him in a gas mask is leaked by someone that ESPN won’t name.

Was Celebrini hanging out with Larry Tunsil?

 

[Guttersniped]

2024 Draft Profile:

LD Leon Muggli, EV Zug NL

Muggli is the type of defender who probably excites real scouts more than he excites internet scouts. Sure, at 6'0" and 170lb he's a bit undersized for a defender, but we're talking one of the easiest, most translatable shutdown projections in the class. Muggli played extremely well for a top end team in an ever improving Swiss National League, and there doesn't really seem to be anything to his game that will significantly hold him back long term. At this point he's viewed as more of a strong 2nd round selection, but I don't think late 1st should be out of the question.

Muggli's skating, particularly at the point, is sublime. He's not quite blazingly fast, but his four-way mobility is top of the line elite, and when combined with his fantastic composure on the puck, he becomes very hard for opposing forwards to catch. Muggli's activations are also extremely well timed, and while he certainly has a penchant for playing it safe with the puck, he rarely ever makes a wrong decision. His passing vision is high end, and that's both as a breakout option and as an offensive zone play facilitator. He always seems to be moving which, thanks to his smarts and great vision, constantly keeps him an option for his linemates, especially off the rush. This is a player who seemingly always has a strong read of the ice in front of him. He is quick and effective in transition, both as a carrier and distributor, and his on puck awareness coupled with his great poise largely helps him avoid turnovers, be it forced or unforced.

Muggli's bread and butter, though, is his defensive game. His rush defense, man on man play, and in zone coverage all project as very good. Muggli combines cerebral timing, competitive body play, and savvy active stick positioning to offer an extremely mature and effective off puck game. He's strong in battles, quick to grab and move loose pucks, and always willing to play through contact if needed. It's easy to cite his mobility as one of the reasons to not be concerned about his smaller frame, but I think there's a stronger argument: his physical instincts. Muggli excels at proactive contact. He routinely engages oncoming forecheckers to buy himself time and space, and he has a great ability to use his body to shield attackers from the puck.

The drawbacks exist, but aren't of great concern to me. Most notably, a quicker first step would go a long way to helping him generate some separation off the rush. He has the reads and he has the shiftiness, but gaining a bit more speed would make him that much harder to catch. The other concern I have is that, while we see time and time again that professional league play can mask offensive upside in prospects, I am not as convinced that's the case here, or at least that there isn't a whole lot being hidden. Muggli is a player who succeeds because he is supremely effective at what he does, but that's not from ++ (or perhaps even +) offensive tools, it's from his great defensive framework and ability to command the ice on the puck. I know his NL draft year production as at near historic levels, but I think it misrepresents his upside a bit. There is an element to his projection that, should he struggle to adapt to the NA game for whatever reason, you don't really have any fallback tools to build off of to help recover his projection.

Regardless, Muggli is the perfect representation of a modern day shutdown defensive prospect. He has high end mobility and is more reliant on reads and anticipation than he is on outright overpowering forecheckers or constantly collapsing in on his own net. He has perfectly capable puck skill and impressive offensive instincts to jump up in play and keep himself an option in all three zones. Muggli has very little risk attached to him and, while the upside might not be that exciting, projects to be a transition monster and a player that pretty much any team could use. For us specifically, he not only addresses a need of being a mobile, shutdown LD, but would fit in flawlessly with the rest of our defensive core and even overall team structure. We can only hope his nationality and lack of high end tools help him slip to the 3rd round.

I got to think a shutdown guy without size falls further down than 3rd but that’s me.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I got to think a shutdown guy without size falls further down than 3rd but that’s me.

Muggli is a beautiful skater, which will certainly help him on draft day, and at 6'0-175 he's not exactly *small*. Muggli's median ranking is probably in the mid-to-late 2nd round, which sounds about right. It also makes it very conceivable that he falls to the NJ 3rd round pick at #74 overall.

If I were forced to make a list of top 10 (conceivable) players for the Devils to take at #74, Muggli would be in strong consideration. NJ has a somewhat similar player in the system in Daniil Orlov, but you can never have too many ultra-fast defensemen who specialize in strong defensive play.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Habs fan passing by to say you guys are absolutely unbelievable. The write-ups/discussions on these prospects are amazing.

I was sent here by @Xirik a while ago and I've been binge-reading.

Some of you guys seriously need to team up and start a blog or something. Seriously, why not?

Pretty sure this is 10X better than most NHL draft sites. Might as well make some extra money, and who knows, maybe get a call from some NHL teams for a job (hopefully Montreal ).

And good call on the Solberg pick! His rise on the mocks has been insane!

Thanks for the kind words. We try to make the draft-page not entirely Devils-centric but rather more universal. It's about the prospects, first and foremost. So it's always nice to have fans of other teams come on the Devils draft boards to join us in discussing all these exciting young talents.

Feel free to hop on in to our draft threads any time and join the discussion. If you have any questions about the Montreal pick at #5 or the current Habs prospect pool, we'd be glad to discuss that too since, again, this is more about the prospects and draft than just the Devils organization.