Prospect Info: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

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Guadana

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A thread on the main boards said New Jersey is rumored to be high on Leo Sahlin Wallenius
We need to be very high on him or trade back and trade back a lot.

if pure puck skill and raw offense are your top priorities for a forward
Than Chernyshov, Catton and Iginla are on the same level or better. Chernyshov is better puckhandler, faster, stronger. Catton much better playmaker, better two way player even if he isnt good board battler - his positioning without the puck is much better.
 

longislanddevil

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I don’t think Fitz is looking to move up and without a second round pick it would be tricky. I wonder if there’s a kid the scouts fell in love with that they would even entertain a trade-up to 7OA to secure. Buium? Dickinson? Iginla? I will be stunned if MBN is not available at 10OA and mildly surprised if Helenius is already taken (though teams love their centers). From an asset management perspective in win now mode, I don’t see Fitz being keen on trading away draft picks that he can use at the trade deadline. I see the range of outcomes as such:

1- stay put and pick at 10OA
2- trade the pick
3- trade down
4- trade up

Fun to think about various scenarios.
 

Guadana

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I don’t think Fitz is looking to move up and without a second round pick it would be tricky. I wonder if there’s a kid the scouts fell in love with that they would even entertain a trade-up to 7OA to secure. Buium? Dickinson? Iginla? I will be stunned if MBN is not available at 10OA and mildly surprised if Helenius is already taken (though teams love their centers). From an asset management perspective in win now mode, I don’t see Fitz being keen on trading away draft picks that he can use at the trade deadline. I see the range of outcomes as such:

1- stay put and pick at 10OA
2- trade the pick
3- trade down
4- trade up

Fun to think about various scenarios.
I think and I hope they have some guys they will not draft the pick until they are available. Because if they dont have this list - their scouting department should be fired.

Because every teams have their preferences. I heard that some chief scout(or some other big goof) said that Demidov is meh and MHL is bad but Sennecke and Catton are great and are doing things. Even if people believe in this - its their right. May be Devils will not have 2-3 best player on the table. 5-6-7? Easily. People on the board are arguing and arguing about Catton and Sennecke vs Nygard and Helenius. A lot of teams have huge need in defensemen in top-9. So its a big chance for forward from the top of our list to be available.
 

StevenToddIves

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Here's my write-up of Sahlin-Wallenius from May. Great skates and two-way ability, but lacks ideal size and struggles with inconsistency and a propensity for his game to break apart a bit under duress. He certainly has the upside of a mid-pairing NHL LD with speed, but there are several IFs there, as well.

LD Leo Sahlin-Wallenius, Vaxjo JR, SWE JR
The inherent problem with analyzing chronically inconsistent players for the NHL draft is we naturally hope to believe that, with maturity and experience, they will iron out these inconsistencies and become the players they are capable of on a recurring level. The problem with this thinking is, while some players grow out of this by the time they hit the NHL, some do not, and it's quite difficult to properly identify the habits which lead to either end of this spectrum.

Leo Sahlin-Wallenius is one such player. When he is on his game, as he did mostly throughout a dominant season in Swedish juniors, the skill and potential are quite clear. He's a 6'0-185 offense-first defenseman who can fly in open ice. He's capable of passing and stick-handling which borders on the high-end, and he features an arsenal of shot angles and release points. This is a kid who likes to activate off the point and lead the rush and abet the offense whenever possible. He has the hands, feet and foresight to elude a player one-on-one from the point, and once he's in open ice he can beat you several ways -- nifty passing, deceptive shooting, or simply by beating a second defender with some fancy dangles and getting to an even higher-danger area himself.

Defensively, Sahlin-Wallenius is generally pretty decent. His gaps and positioning are quite good, he's solid against the rush and anticipates the game well -- this is a smart kid. Where he often fails is in his greasy-area defense, as this is not a player attuned to or in love with the physical side of the game.

But Sahlin-Wallenius' biggest problem right now is his propensity to disappear from games completely due to the adversity of getting hit or just simply playing against high-level competition. Without getting into specifics which will sound too negative, there have certainly been games where a couple of hits or mistakes led to more panic with the puck which led to more mistakes and panic with the puck for Sahlin-Wallenius. In a nutshell, he can unravel quickly and dramatically, and this is something which needs to be worked on far more than any physical aspect of his game.

If Sahlin-Wallenius can find a greater level of consistency, his tool-kit and smarts have the potential to lift him to an NHL second-pairing-type offensive defenseman who can also hold his own on all 200-feet of the rink. But he needs a few years of maturity and experience to get there, and that's the chance you're taking if you draft him in the 2nd round where he is normally ranked by the NHL draft consensus.
 

Captain3rdLine

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We have different opinions on “not working out.” I’m OK with a double at 10OA. Of course I’d want to hit a triple or homerun with a top 6 player or top four defenseman. However, I wouldn’t classify a 20 goal third line player, for example, as “not working out.” I don’t disagree with your overall point as plenty of players bomb but for the group of players I mentioned, I just don’t see a likely bust in the bunch. There are certainly some other players I’ve identified with considerable more risk that have much higher bust probability.

You’re right. I’m not a scout where I’m paid to go out on a limb and project the player that will be the best pro, organizational fit, etc. Since I’m just a poster on a message board, I can have a group of prospects I like roughly the same and don’t have to make the decision.
The thing is getting a top 6 player isn’t hitting a home run or even triple.

If you get a 20 goal third line player at 10th overall you’ve have failed. You take what you got and that player still has values and from their point of view it might be fair to say they didn’t not work out. But as a team picking in and around the top 10 anything less than a top 6 player at the least is disappointing. Thats the range where you have a decent opportunity to get top of the line elite players still. Thats what you hope for and thats your triple or home run. You want a core piece from that range. Getting a top 6 player is a single or double. 20 goal third liners are pretty disposable and not worth all that much and aren’t the kind of guys you keep around for a decade plus as huge parts of your team. End of the first sure that’s reasonable to be good with.

And this is actually coming from a guy who’s usually trying to lower people’s expectations of prospects and what is an acceptable outcome.
 

NJ DevLolz

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Why isn't a guy like Liam Greentree getting more buzz as a potential option? 6'2, great production, apparently plays a power-forward game, captain. No one on his team was remotely close to him in terms of production.
 

longislanddevil

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Why isn't a guy like Liam Greentree getting more buzz as a potential option? 6'2, great production, apparently plays a power-forward game, captain. No one on his team was remotely close to him in terms of production.
The knock is his skating is….to put it nicely, not good.
 

Captain3rdLine

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Why isn't a guy like Liam Greentree getting more buzz as a potential option? 6'2, great production, apparently plays a power-forward game, captain. No one on his team was remotely close to him in terms of production.
Definitely has some nice upside as a big skilled forward with a good shot but also some areas of improvement and there should still be some better options left at 10. Also could care less that he’s captain of the Windsor Spitfires.
 

Guadana

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Why isn't a guy like Liam Greentree getting more buzz as a potential option? 6'2, great production, apparently plays a power-forward game, captain. No one on his team was remotely close to him in terms of production.
Slow, bad skating, very little potential as center, more one way player. There will be enough better packaged players.
 

NJ DevLolz

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The knock is his skating is….to put it nicely, not good.

Definitely has some nice upside as a big skilled forward with a good shot but also some areas of improvement and there should still be some better options left at 10. Also could care less that he’s captain of the Windsor Spitfires.

Slow, bad skating, very little potential as center, more one way player. There will be enough better packaged players.
Ahh ok. Devils need to add more speed to the organization. Losing McLeod, Wood, and Boqvist in the last year lost them the advantage of wearing their opponents down with speed
 

StevenToddIves

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Why isn't a guy like Liam Greentree getting more buzz as a potential option? 6'2, great production, apparently plays a power-forward game, captain. No one on his team was remotely close to him in terms of production.
I have Greentree ranked in the 2nd round. His offensive abilities are certainly impressive -- shooting, puck skill, vision, offensive IQ -- I'd say all of it is high end. Combined with his huge 6'2-200 frame, there's a lot to like.

So, why do I not even have him in the 1st round? Well, he not only comes with red flags, he comes with multiple red flags in very dangerous areas. His mix of well-below-average skating with questionable compete level often leaves him behind the pace of the game vs. tougher and faster opponents. His 200-foot play needs a lot of work -- as for now, he's terrific in the offensive zone, ok in transition, but not even adequate in any other aspect of the game.

Simply put, Greentree is a good example of why amateur stats are only part of the puzzle when assessing draft prospects. Players whose entire game is reliant on scoring need to at least have some positive impact on the game when they do not score, which is tougher to do at higher levels. And they certainly cannot have a negative impact on the non-scoring aspect of the game. Greentree, quite simply, must improve on all of these areas if he is to make the NHL, much less succeed in it.

Two CHL examples of this from my 1st round rankings would be Ryder Ritchie and Jett Luchanko. Neither player can match Greentree's pure scoring skill or size or statistical output. But both Ritchie and Luchanko not only skate very well, but they play a high-effort style in all three zones and any situation, and they excel in high-pace. They're versatile and adaptable and positively impact your team not just game-in and game-out, but shift-in and shift-out, whether or not they are hitting the scoreboard. With Greentree, if he's not scoring, you're probably not noticing him at all, because if he's not leading the play in his direction he's usually lagging far behind it in the other direction.
 

StevenToddIves

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Definitely has some nice upside as a big skilled forward with a good shot but also some areas of improvement and there should still be some better options left at 10. Also could care less that he’s captain of the Windsor Spitfires.
"Some better options left at #10" is very kind of you haha. I couldn't have worded it more gingerly myself.
 

evnted

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Am I alone in really really really wanting Tij Iginla?
not alone at all. i think helenius/mbn have a bit more support overall here (rightfully so), but im a big tij fan and would love it if he, very improbably, made it to our pick. seems like an easy hagel-esque projection with the upside of potentially being a star if things dont slow down

in credit to the discourse against him, hes still a bit more of a work in progress than those two, but i see fewer overall weaknesses in his offensive game on top of a meteoric (and season-long) progression rate. sometimes, and im not naming names :sarcasm: , prospects get pegged as major risers when they see a massive increase in results even if there arent gigantic steps forward in their game. with tij, though, its been constantly adding dimensions to his game (playmaking intent, defensive intensity, etc.) and hammering out deficincies in it (dead end plays, overshooting, etc.)

guadana and i effectively had a mini tij/mbn debate a couple pages back. fun read with some great points across the board. also about a month ago i posted a big discussion on player trajectories in the context of iginla, worth going back to if you didnt originally catch it
 

Guadana

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I think a lot do, but just assume he’ll be gone before #10, especially with Calgary picking before.
I think Calgary will pick D or C. They need it.
They are in the bad situation - Tij should be very good NHLer but still has question marks, he has some sides of the game that can limit his potential. If they will miss some big D or productive C - they will need huge develop from Tij. And there will be a lot of good defensemen who will be drafted after Tij. May be even Catton and Helenius will be available. Too many good players who can be better player and some fans/writers will talk about "Сonroy picked Tij because of his memories, not because he tried to help his team". In opposite situation everybody will not forget about available Tij who could be huge for team traditions as a very productive player and the son of his father. Just because this is how post-draft works.
So one way or another - they should try to pick better player. If they think its Iginla - pick him. If they think its other player - they should pick other player.
 

Nocashstyle

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I think Calgary will pick D or C. They need it.
They are in the bad situation - Tij should be very good NHLer but still has question marks, he has some sides of the game that can limit his potential. If they will miss some big D or productive C - they will need huge develop from Tij. And there will be a lot of good defensemen who will be drafted after Tij. May be even Catton and Helenius will be available. Too many good players who can be better player and some fans/writers will talk about "Сonroy picked Tij because of his memories, not because he tried to help his team". In opposite situation everybody will not forget about available Tij who could be huge for team traditions as a very productive player and the son of his father. Just because this is how post-draft works.
So one way or another - they should try to pick better player. If they think its Iginla - pick him. If they think its other player - they should pick other player.

Yeah I agree, but I do think nepotism certainly could play a factor, not only because of his father being a Flames legend, but Tij is projected to go in that range regardless of his last name. There will definitely be outside pressure from the fanbase to pick Tij, and if they’re splitting hairs on two or three guys, nepotism wins out.

I think Conroy’s decision is initially going to be questioned regardless of who they pick unless Tij is already gone by then.
 

Captain3rdLine

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Unless they don’t like Iginla and think he should be in the top 10 I can’t see them not taking him. I would be fine taking him but there’s a few other guys would prefer more.

Buium, Solberg, or even Eiserman if they get to us
 
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SteveCangialosi123

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The more time that passes the more and more I like Solberg.

Would be very happy with him, Dickinson, Helenius or MBN. (Assuming Buium and Iginla are not getting to 10th)

Meh on Catton and Sennecke

Only guys I don't want are Eiserman and the RHD
Maybe we can trade back with SJ and get him with the 14th pick (and get our 2nd back in the process).
 

Captain3rdLine

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Maybe we can trade back with SJ and get him with the 14th pick (and get our 2nd back in the process).
People always bring ideas like this up and it doesn’t general happen or workout.

If we like him enough to want him at 10 you can bet there’s other teams in the same area that may love him and take him. So unless SJS is trying to move up for someone and give us something worthy, and we have more than one guy that we like on a similar level then we shouldn’t do this.

Also hate after the fact when people say you shoulda traded back and then taken a player a who was rated a bit lower than the pick like they have even the slightest clue if that player would still have been there.


If you like a player and thing he’s worth that pick you should take him there.
 
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