I'll be as straight forward as I can be right now.
It's not about Iginla being more "predictable" than "the rest".
It's about Sennecke being less "predictable" than "the rest".
You can make an argument for a whole lot of players at 5.
Lindstrom showed he can be downright dominant, plays with pugnacity, and scored as many goals as Sennecke on a full year in... 32 games.
Demidov did what no other prospect before him did in the MHL, no matter how poor people say the calibre is in that league.
Iginla just had a very good 17 years old season, being one of the top goal scorers in the whole CHL, while being one of the youngest players in this draft.
Hell, you can even make an argument for Catton, who had a season for the ages, and for Eiserman, who did what nobody did before him in the USHL.
All of these guys have showed they can actually elevate their game an be dominant in a way or another.
Then, you have Beckett Sennecke, a guy who by all means struggled to hit a point per game in the OHL, and who is being sold here as the second coming of God, but who somehow struggled to product consistently, and is going to get his game to the next level and do something he's never done because "GrOwTh SpUrT". A guy who Scott Wheeler reported that his off-ice reputation was average at best as early as this season.
And that's just taking the empirical data. I won't even get into how freaking disengaged and awkward this guy looks on the ice. Of course people will all put this under the "GrOwTh SpUrT" excuse. But this is the point; You should not justify picking a guy who has that many question marks around him because "GrOwTh SpUrT".
It's a hit-or-miss, and you should not go after hit-or-misses with a 5th overally pick, and pray the guy you drafted is going to do something he's NEVER done before - product consistently/be dominant.
People come up with all kinds of excuses you should not have to make for a 5th overall pick. People will say numbers don't matter and Scheifele didn't have tremendous numbers in his draft season. They'll also disregard how Scheifele is not the norm and how Scheifele is pretty much what every team wants to add to its arsenal - a right-handed C with good size. That alone motivated the reach.
He might just pan out and beat the odds. If so, props to the ones who saw it coming. But if he busts and Iginla becomes what he's pretty much anticipated to become - a fine sniper with a good all-around game and good level of compete - this is a fireable offense. ESPECIALLY considering the shallow depth of our prospects pool up front. ESPECIALLY knowing how much of a perfect duo he'd make with Kirby Dach.
The fact is that if you're drafting Sennecke, you're drafting a guy who hasn't even showed he can do what you draft him for consistently. And who does things that are simply not translatable in the NHL at junior, and who can't even pull it off consistently.
Hell, if that guy is really in the discussions I'd still rather take a chance with one of the Ds.
align 
