HF Habs: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[Lafleurs Guy]

That’s why God created trades.

How do you get the best players? You draft them. Once you draft them, you tend to hang onto them. That's why you rarely see big trades anymore.

It makes no sense to draft a blueliner now so we can try to trade a blueliner for a forward tomorrow. Just draft the forward.

 

[The Great Weal]

If you think the forwards left are 2nd liners and a top pair D is available, who do you take? That’s the real decision.

Top pair D all day. Imagine if Dallas passed up on Harley because they had Heiskanen and Lindell. Not to mention that Suter was also in the top 4 a good bit of times meaning they had 4 LHD in the top 4. Obviously you'd like to have at least one RHD there which is why adding Tanev helped them out tremendously, but if a team like Dallas can do that despite having a top 5 dman in the NHL, I don't see why the Habs can't do the same.

I still think we're getting one of Demidov/Lindstrom, I doubt the Hawks are passing up on Levshunov because Demidov is one inch taller than expected.

 

[SOLR]

My two cents on this whole thing. I've always seen Suzuki as a high IQ player, Matheson not so much. Matheson's skating is sublime. He can make a mistake and outskate an opposing player back to his own end. We've seen him do that before.

As for being more IQ tested, I'd say Suzuki's been far more successful on that front. He may not be a 100 point player but he's got strong two way play. Matheson shouldn't be a number one pairing blueliner. He's got great skills and can put pucks in the net but his defense leaves a lot to be desired.

Anyways, this probably isn't the thread for this conversation. But it's an interesting foil to look at this vs the upcoming draft from the perspective of physical ability vs IQ. To me, Matheson's success is borne out of his skating. He's one of the best in the NHL and it's served him (and us) really well. He's taken far too much abuse here but I wouldn't call him a high IQ player. I would with Suzuki.

Now try to explain how skating can be magically detached from IQ since it's mainly a coordination challenge. And how a fast player need to process the game often 30-40% faster than a slower player (Suzuki who is average). Matheson is higher IQ than Suzuki, his issue: he would have to be even higher IQ to just look like Suzuki who plays the same 10-15 plays over and over. Being a forward is a lot simpler than being a D.

The reverse case: Ribeiro was smart but was also slow, ie. a lot of his processing was going to recognizing patterns vs. moving.

The absolute case: McDavid is 2-3 standard of deviation faster, with the pattern recognition of Ribeiro (no tradeoff).

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

Isn’t he a journalist for The Athletic? Surely through out his career he must have develop some connections.

The Athletic is a relatively new publication that brought in hacks like Wheeler and Pronman who have never worked in hockey. Just because he now has the opportunity to meet/interview some of these people does not give him an ounce of credibility as they don't share anything of value with an outsider like him. I know NHL players, who are mostly retired but I have had many opportunities to speak to players, executives, scouts and agents and they don't share certain things especially with media types like Wheeler who is not part of the club that people like myself were much closer to. I am not even remotely obtuse enough to ask certain questions because I know what the answer would be and the reason that they were cool with me was largely due to that level of respect. When a guy like Wheeler walks in the room there is collective hush that comes over these people and he is at best a necessary evil that they would sooner see go away than have to entertain on a phony level for any period of time.

It is important to understand that there are only a couple of media personalities that have earned enough respect to even allow the door to open a tiny crack like Mackenzie and Friedman and even they only get things that the team is ok with divulging and that does not include who they are going to draft. The only exception is Mackenzie getting the the scoop straight from the draft table moments before teams walk up to the podium and the pick has already been decided upon.

 

[dcyhabs]

I like Buium way more than Dicksinson.

It really depends on how their games translate. I haven't seen much of either, but both put up pretty impressive stats. Buium may have inflated stats due to a good team or he may be an NHL star, at least in the regular season.

Dickinson may top out as a second pairing player but he could be an NHL playoff star.

It's really tough to judge ahead of time. In 5-10 years I'll look at hockeydb, do a couple of sorts, and say "obviously we should have taken whatever player wasn't really in consideration." It's really a matter of trying to end up with the guys who progress, and we have to hope the dinners and meetings gave some insight.

 

[PavelBrendl]

Kinda weird Lindstrom made it all the way up off 25 games after this ranking.

it's Catton Saturday

https://x.com/i/web/status/1715063868274421884

It's always been Catton Saturday. Pushing him down lists has always been pure big brain/size queen shit.

 

[HabzSauce]

Catton produced at Crosby, Bedard level and he lost 5 ranks, really makes you think

Catton Saturday

https://x.com/i/web/status/1802463462196383949

This kid is so intriguing man. I'm not super high on him and would rather draft Buium, Demidov with our pick. He's in the next tier for me with Iginla & sennecke.

But man you cannot deny this dudes skill. Unreal player. Whoever gets him is going to look really good in a couple years

 

[PavelBrendl]

This kid is so intriguing man. I'm not super high on him and would rather draft Buium, Demidov with our pick. He's in the next tier for me with Iginla & sennecke.

But man you cannot deny this dudes skill. Unreal player. Whoever gets him is going to look really good in a couple years

Not just his skill. His vision and awareness are second to only Celebrini in this draft. His head is never down, he's constantly scanning for openings and opportunities. He's a true play driver and dual threat, and thinks the game fast enough to almost always choose the most dangerous option while playing at full speed. I honestly get the impression that there's a lot of people who straight up don't watch him or consider him an option cuz they have mental barriers around selecting sub-6-foot players.

 

[Jaynki]

Catton produced at Crosby, Bedard level and he lost 5 ranks, really makes you think

Catton Saturday

https://x.com/i/web/status/1802463462196383949

This stats is cherry-picked and cutted at 50 goals because his production is also eerily similar to Rossi(120 pts), Petan(120) or Jordan Dumais(109), fwiw.

 

[crosbyshow]

This kid is so intriguing man. I'm not super high on him and would rather draft Buium, Demidov with our pick. He's in the next tier for me with Iginla & sennecke.

But man you cannot deny this dudes skill. Unreal player. Whoever gets him is going to look really good in a couple years

The thing is that it's not those highlights when he carries the puck to the net that impress me the most. In fact..that kind of plays dont' work at the NHL level except for Mcdavid and Mackinnon.

People should instead watch Catton's highlights when he feeds his teammates on the zone entrance and the way he attracts opponants to him etc....

It is where you can see his real genius and it is where it will translate so well in the NHL too.

The dude has the best IQ of this draft ( forwards)

 

[Mrb1p]

Iginla is probably a better choice as Catton probably won't be able to dominate from the middle of the ice like he has up until now. They'll both probably have to become wingers and Iginla game won't be as hurt from doing so. Nothing against Catton but he's more of a perimeter player. Habs need to learn how to play on the inside more

Catton isn't any more of a perimeter player than Suzuki or Caufield, in fact, I'd say he attacks the inside and, as you said the middle of the ice, a lot more than these two. One of the reason why the Habs have been so sad for decades now is that. We have no one that can challenge a defender one on one and beat him and he have no one that can walk in and expose defenses. Catton can do that. Iggy is my favored pick but it's not because Catton is a "perimeter" player.

Not just his skill. His vision and awareness are second to only Celebrini in this draft. His head is never down, he's constantly scanning for openings and opportunities. He's a true play driver and dual threat, and thinks the game fast enough to almost always choose the most dangerous option while playing at full speed. I honestly get the impression that there's a lot of people who straight up don't watch him or consider him an option cuz they have mental barriers around selecting sub-6-foot players.

Demidov exists but yes hes very good.

This stats is cherry-picked and cutted at 50 goals because his production is also eerily similar to Rossi(120 pts), Petan(120) or Jordan Dumais(109), fwiw.

Yes its stupid to cherry pick numbers like that, Catton is still an impressive player.

 

[Archijerej]

im not going to say Buium isn’t going to be a star. I don’t know anymore than anyone here. Truth be told, under different circumstances I’d love to draft him.

But we’re at the point where we’re overstocked in D. To the point where we already are going to have to make trades. And you can’t just bank on trading for a forward. It doesn’t work that easily.

We have a real need up front. To me it’d be crazy not to go that way.

I wouldn't pay attention to Buium's position if he's going against a forward in a different tier. This is probably the last top 5 pick of our rebuild and you should squeeze the most of those in terms of talent.

What Basu has described, though, is a Buium vs Demidov scenario, which is a head-scratcher and precisely what you have described as overthinking it.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

With Michkov leaving, I don't see why SKA wouldn't loan Demidov to Sochi if he doesn't make their team

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

Catton isn't any more of a perimeter player than Suzuki or Caufield, in fact, I'd say he attacks the inside and, as you said the middle of the ice, a lot more than these two. One of the reason why the Habs have been so sad for decades now is that. We have no one that can challenge a defender one on one and beat him and he have no one that can walk in and expose defenses. Catton can do that. Iggy is my favored pick but it's not because Catton is a "perimeter" player

Actually one of the knocks that analysts have on Catton is his translatable ability to dominate from the middle. As I said, I don't think either of the two prospects will be centres. Cattons game is super reliant on playmaking from the inside which I don't think he'll be able to do. We can agree to disagree. But when you have a smaller player built like a high schooler, chances are they'll get eaten up in the middle. Suzuki is at least built like a bull. 5'11 over 210 lbs. The reason Catton plays on the inside more than Suzuki is quite obvious, because he has the privilege to do so I'm juniors. Habs either need a hyper talented player like demidov that is the exception or someone who plays more smash mouth hockey or is a big body. If they want to go sennecke, it is what it is. But Habs should probably be focused on demidov, Lindstrom, or Iginla if team building is the name of the game

 

[TheBuriedHab]

For you draft nerds that still want actual prospect break downs, the guys that help out with the black book released videos explaining their rankings and giving their scouting reports on their top 32.

Here's the top 15. Lots of great insight here. I found the Catton discussion really good and also why they have Buium as the best defenseman in this class. Timestamps are in the description.

 

[Ozmodiar]

Now try to explain how skating can be magically detached from IQ since it's mainly a coordination challenge. And how a fast player need to process the game often 30-40% faster than a slower player (Suzuki who is average). Matheson is higher IQ than Suzuki, his issue: he would have to be even higher IQ to just look like Suzuki who plays the same 10-15 plays over and over. Being a forward is a lot simpler than being a D

About that skating, last season:

Top speed:
Mike Matheson: 22.94 mph, 83rd percentile
Nick Suzuki: 23.03 mph, 86th percentile

Bursts over 20 mph:
MM: 113, 75th percentile
NS: 218, 95th percentile

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I wouldn't pay attention to Buium's position if he's going against a forward in a different tier. This is probably the last top 5 pick of our rebuild and you should squeeze the most of those in terms of talent.

What Basu has described, though, is a Buium vs Demidov scenario, which is a head-scratcher and precisely what you have described as overthinking it.

If Buium was a no brainer pick… sure. Who’s going to draft Plekanec over Nick Lidstrom? But that’s not the case in terms of projections. Iginla, Sennecke, Buium are all in the same tier. Rankings are all over the place. If anything, Dickinson is ranked higher.

 

[Gravity]

Reinbacher and Buium.......guess the aim is to win games 1-0 then.

 

[TheBuriedHab]

Reinbacher and Buium.......guess the aim is to win games 1-0 then.

You're aware that Buium would help create a lot of offense right?

 

[PavelBrendl]

This stats is cherry-picked and cutted at 50 goals because his production is also eerily similar to Rossi(120 pts), Petan(120) or Jordan Dumais(109), fwiw.

That's fair enough, we can all agree that 50 goals and 115 pts and 30 goals and 115 pts are very different statlines.

There are also a few caveats. Catton was pretty much all alone on a terrible team, while each of these other guys were on powerhouse teams. I think it was quite accepted that in particular, Petan's numbers were inflated for this reason.

Another being that there's an argument for each of those other 3 guys being legitimately undersized at 5'9" and being flyweights when they were drafted. Although I'm not bothered by Rossi's size, as he's relatively thick and playing at a pretty average/acceptable NHL weight right now. While Catton is merely "undersized", being 2 inches taller and already heavier at the combine than either of the other two are even today.

I also think Rossi was a fine pick at #9, and he could have gone earlier but we'll see how his career progresses.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

The thing is that it's not those highlights when he carries the puck to the net that impress me the most. In fact..that kind of plays dont' work at the NHL level except for Mcdavid and Mackinnon.

People should instead watch Catton's highlights when he feeds his teammates on the zone entrance and the way he attracts opponants to him etc....

It is where you can see his real genius and it is where it will translate so well in the NHL too.

The dude has the best IQ of this draft ( forwards)

The hyperbole is strong, especially with huge IQ players like Celebrini, Demidov, Helenius, Buium etc around......why do people find it necessary to make ridiculous claims that can not be proven. Just state that Catton appears to be a high IQ player and move on to the next trait, you sound like you are selling Catton Vacuum's in the 70's.

 

[SOLR]

About that skating, last season:

Top speed:
Mike Matheson: 22.94 mph, 83rd percentile
Nick Suzuki: 23.03 mph, 86th percentile

Bursts over 20 mph:
MM: 113, 75th percentile
NS: 218, 95th percentile

Oh another top speed analysis that calculates on 0.1% of skating moments.

Of course Suzuki would burst higher, he's a forward.

 

[Mrb1p]

Actually one of the knocks that analysts have on Catton is his translatable ability to dominate from the middle. As I said, I don't think either of the two prospects will be centres. Cattons game is super reliant on playmaking from the inside which I don't think he'll be able to do. We can agree to disagree. But when you have a smaller player built like a high schooler, chances are they'll get eaten up in the middle. Suzuki is at least built like a bull. 5'11 over 210 lbs. The reason Catton plays on the inside more than Suzuki is quite obvious, because he has the privilege to do so I'm juniors. Habs either need a hyper talented player like demidov that is the exception or someone who plays more smash mouth hockey or is a big body. If they want to go sennecke, it is what it is. But Habs should probably be focused on demidov, Lindstrom, or Iginla if team building is the name of the game

I think you're mistaken, Catton is also a pretty obvious exception. He's not any smaller than Keller, Point, Marner, Guentzel, Bratt, Panarin, etc.

There's also the fact that he's not "built like a high schooler", he is a high schooler.

 

[PavelBrendl]

Catton isn't any more of a perimeter player than Suzuki or Caufield, in fact, I'd say he attacks the inside and, as you said the middle of the ice, a lot more than these two. One of the reason why the Habs have been so sad for decades now is that. We have no one that can challenge a defender one on one and beat him and he have no one that can walk in and expose defenses. Catton can do that. Iggy is my favored pick but it's not because Catton is a "perimeter" player.

Demidov exists but yes hes very good.

Yes its stupid to cherry pick numbers like that, Catton is still an impressive player.

True on Demidov. Buium and Parekh are also nuts, but I was thinking more in terms of forwards.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I think you're mistaken, Catton is also a pretty obvious exception. He's not any smaller than Keller, Point, Marner, Guentzel, Bratt, Panarin, etc.

There's also the fact that he's not "built like a high schooler", he is a high schooler.

So, basically… we can draft Peter Parker.

I’m in.