HF Habs: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[Estimated_Prophet]

His ceiling is much higher than Catton and Iginla.

And you know this based exactly on what??

The ceiling thing gets annoying when it is declared as an irrefutable fact. What does ceiling really mean, the common fan thinks it is about offensive production when imo it is about overall impact on a game.

It is just way too subjective to use when comparing three prospects who all have a ton of potential to try and isolate one of them as the clearly having the highest ceiling.

 

[FinnHab]

Button`s latest mock draft:

The Montreal Canadiens hold the fifth-overall selection for the second straight year and Button takes Medicine Hat Tigers centre Cayden Lindstrom.

“He’s an imposing figure on the ice,” Button explained. “He can do it with skill, he can do it with will, he can do it with physical play. You’re not going to be able to deny Cayden Lindstrom when he gets going in a game…he reminds me so much of J.T. Miller.”

 

[ReHabs]

Omg now I have read it all. Now having pro preparation is bad. Now being trained by an all time great is a red flag.

It reminds me of people not wanting to draft big, strong, athletic kids because they either won't have that advantage in the NHL or the scrawny wimp has perceived untapped potential. Only the scrawny wimp will be scrawny and wimpier in the NHL, and the NHL is full of strong and athletic people.

It's an advantage. Let's not be the smartest guys in the room trying to turn every advantage into a reason why someone's going to bust.

If only scrawny wimp Patrick Kane and scrawny wimp Nikita Kucherov could've been more like big, strong, athletic Josh Anderson and Joel Armia.

 

[NotProkofievian]

If only scrawny wimp Patrick Kane and scrawny wimp Nikita Kucherov could've been more like big, strong, athletic Josh Anderson and Joel Armia.

Thank you for your contribution Rene.

 

[ReHabs]

Thank you for your contribution Rene.

99% of this audience either won’t recognize or care about your strained reference to a former IIHF president. It’s hardly relevant to anything either — Russian hockey players haven’t been allowed access to an equal platform, so it’s undeniable their draft eligible prospects are likely under-exposed and under-rated as a result. THAT is entirely relevant to the draft discussion.

 

[Mrb1p]

Let's all rank these forwards from riskiest to least risky.

Demidov, Lindstrom, Sennecke, Catton, Iginla

Whats risky about Demidov ?




Sennecke


















Lindstrom (Injury related only)


No risk but you gotta rank them anyway
Catton
Demidov
Iginla

 

[NotProkofievian]

Whats risky about Demidov ?




Sennecke


















Lindstrom (Injury related only)


No risk but you gotta rank them anyway
Catton
Demidov
Iginla

Demidov is a small injured Russian with no record either internationally (not his fault), or professionally (somewhat his fault). The profile caries some risk.

 

[Mrb1p]

His ceiling is much higher than Catton and Iginla.

LOL.

I'll give you Iginla, maybe if you want to ignore that Iginla has the 2nd best shot and goalscoring instincts in the whole draft and Sennecke is like mid range, what ever.

But Catton ? Come on. Galaxy braining this.

Demidov is a small injured Russian with no record either internationally (not his fault), or professionally (somewhat his fault). The profile caries some risk.

Neither are his fault, and the profile carries risk only if you ram your head in a wall and stay stuck in there. His talent does not exist outside of our reality even if he has only played in the MHL. He is still by far one, if not the most talented player in this draft. The only risk assessed here is his knee injury, but knees aren't lower backs, they carry a lot less risk of complication than a back in jury.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Neither are his fault, and the profile carries risk only if you ram your head in a wall and stay stuck in there. His talent does not exist outside of our reality even if he has only played in the MHL. He is still by far one, if not the most talented player in this draft. The only risk assessed here is his knee injury, but knees aren't lower backs, they carry a lot less risk of complication than a back in jury.

Lots of unbelievably skilled players have busted or under delivered. I don't question his talent level at all.

Risk is risk, if you didn't observe a result you can't just assume that it would've gone amazingly. It's an unknown. Oh, and he's not a great skater.

I do love these last weeks before a draft. Players are all sure things and busts and everyone's an idiot for disagreeing.

 

[Naslund]

Demidov is incredibly skilled and exciting, but over my last 25 years of watching kids being drafted into NHL teams, I have seen my fair share of skilled and exciting forwards busting in the NHL. Demidov is smallish, not overly physical, not the fastest, and I don't see him blasting one-timers over the ice in the videos I have seen. There are plenty of risks with that player. On the flip side, he may very well become a star.

 

[Habs Halifax]

No chance whatsoever they trade down.

I am not sure about that. I would just take Iggy 5th but the other part I wonder about is how high they are with Sennecke, Catton, and Eiserman. If the Habs trade down with the 5th and then use the additional asset to trade up with the 26th, they could end up getting two of Iggy, Sennecke, Catton, Eiserman.

Sorry, I don't believe in zero probability

 

[SOLR]

@NotProkofievian

Least risky to most risky:

Iginla
Demidov
Catton
Lindstrom
Sennecke

Highest ceiling to lowest ceiling:

Lindstrom
Demidov
Iginla
Catton
Sennecke

Demidov's ceiling is much higher than Lindstrom. The hype on Lindstrom ceiling I don't really understand, he hasn't shown prime stickhandling or IQ, he has shown a good power forward game. "But he's going to hit everything" is interesting but it seems to come with some risks. You draft Lindstrom because he's the best now, and the most NHL ready.

Ceilings

Demidov (Kucherov +)


Catton (Stevie Y)

Iginla (Jarome)

Lindstrom (John Leclair)
Sennecke (Jeff Carter)

 

[jaffy27]

If they take Dickinson imagine Matheson be traded for another pick in top 15. Take Catton, Sennecke or Eiserman. Whomever is still available.

Be good first round draft Dickinson, Sennecke and Stiga.

Use the caproom saved to sign a UFA. DeBrusk?

Matheson for a draft pick would make me puke…..If Matheson is going, it’s in a major trade to acquire a Necas type player.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Demidov's ceiling is much higher than Lindstrom.

Ceilings

Demidov (Kucherov +)


Catton (Stevie Y)

Iginla (Jarome)

Lindstrom (John Leclair)
Sennecke (Jeff Carter)

Kucherov+. Is that right?

 

[jaffy27]

I am not sure about that. I would just take Iggy 5th but the other part I wonder about is how high they are with Sennecke, Catton, and Eiserman. If the Habs trade down with the 5th and then use the additional asset to trade up with the 26th, they could end up getting two of Iggy, Sennecke, Catton, Eiserman.

Sorry, I don't believe in zero probability

How about unlikely then lol

Not too many more chances at a top 5 pick for the next little while so if anything I’d think we be looking to move up, not draw back

 

[Habs Halifax]

How about unlikely then lol

Not too many more chances at a top 5 pick for the next little while so if anything I’d think we be looking to move up, not draw back

That will depend on how they see their draft board and also how they guess other teams draft boards. Our grades at evaluating the prospect resumes from 2-14 might indicate one waive. I have two waives of talent in this range but our scouts might have one.

I've made it known that Iggy is my target. I even have him on par with Demidov because I think the Russian becomes a perimeter skilled type. However, I do see what others see in Sennecke and Catton. Others not that high on Eiserman but I am. Lindstrom scares me in terms of bust factor. That guy has a monster ceiling and a very low base. Someone is either going to look like a genius for taking him or an idiot.

 

[SOLR]

Kucherov+. Is that right?

Yes absolutely, as a ceiling. Demidov is more powerful (fitness) than Kucherov while having a very similar IQ, shot, stick and agility as Kucherov. If he refines the skating just a bit, he will be something else.

 

[Habs Halifax]

You don’t see him “blasting one-timers” because that’s not his game... He mostly creates his own scoring chances by dangling and/or using his incredible edge work. Plus, there are a plethora of players from many different playstyles that have busted. So does this in bold really mean much? Demidov is a terrific talent.

Demidov is a terrific talent in terms of skating and he has a great shot. Likes to shoot on the right side of the net but I'm sure he can fine tune that. The one timer would be nice though. It's a PP weapon like Kucherov. But yeah, Demidov just does not show that ability right now. Can he develop it? Who knows. Slaf has worked very hard at it.

I'll eat crow on this but Demidov might become a perimeter skilled type who don't like physical contact. Hard to gauge by watching video but there is a some sample of that.

He's going to be good just on his skating alone. He's hard to catch. I just don't know how good and my instincts tell me he won't be as good as some think he will be. This is not your typical Russian with size/weight. His size/weight is not terrible but he's not going to be a physical type. That's my assessment on him.

At best, P Kane.
At worse, Ehlers?

 

[ReHabs]

Demidov's ceiling is much higher than Lindstrom. The hype on Lindstrom ceiling I don't really understand, he hasn't shown prime stickhandling or IQ, he has shown a good power forward game. "But he's going to hit everything" is interesting but it seems to come with some risks. You draft Lindstrom because he's the best now, and the most NHL ready.

Ceilings

Demidov (Kucherov +)


Catton (Stevie Y)

Iginla (Jarome)

Lindstrom (John Leclair)
Sennecke (Jeff Carter)

To add… just because a youngster hits in junior does not mean he can translate that to the NHL or sustain it in the NHL.

Weber was a ferocious hitter… every so often. It is unsustainable to hit everything that moves — it is too taxing, too difficult, too injurious to do so in the NHL.

If Lindstrom is the man, he has to be taken because of his ability to eat hits and his nose for net. It’s for this reason I don’t prioritize him, I think his real strengths aren’t things that we’re particularly missing.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Yes absolutely, as a ceiling. Demidov is more powerful (fitness) than Kucherov while having a very similar IQ, shot, stick and agility as Kucherov. If he refines the skating just a bit, he will be something else.

Do you have him above Macklin?

 

[SOLR]

To add… just because a youngster hits in junior does not mean he can translate that to the NHL or sustain it in the NHL.

Weber was a ferocious hitter… every so often. It is unsustainable to hit everything that moves — it is too taxing, too difficult, too injurious to do so in the NHL.

If Lindstrom is the man, he has to be taken because of his ability to eat hits and his nose for net. It’s for this reason I don’t prioritize him, I think his real strengths aren’t things that we’re particularly missing.

And we won't get a 2nd Slafkovski.

 

[jaffy27]

That will depend on how they see their draft board and also how they guess other teams draft boards. Our grades at evaluating the prospect resumes from 2-14 might indicate one waive. I have two waives of talent in this range but our scouts might have one.

I've made it known that Iggy is my target. I even have him on par with Demidov because I think the Russian becomes a perimeter skilled type. However, I do see what others see in Sennecke and Catton. Others not that high on Eiserman but I am. Lindstrom scares me in terms of bust factor. That guy has a monster ceiling and a very low base. Someone is either going to look like a genius for taking him or an idiot.

All good choices, of course I have my favourites but I’d feel good about all the players you mentioned at 5 except Eiserman, like the player but if we were selecting in the 9-12 range.

I don’t see a world where Lindstrom will bust unless his injuries consume him but I believe he will conquer those demons.

Iggy at 5 would make me very happy

 

[SOLR]

Do you have him above Macklin?

Ceiling wise? no. Celebrini is a bigger and better Jonathan Toews. Toews was not a big guy and it was his downfall. Celebrini will have the same 2 way game, but a better shot (thus more PP success), skating and will be an imposing player when he reaches 200lbs. Celebrini is the future top center of team Canada after McDavid (our two others generational players, Bedard and McKenna will be probably be wingers at that level).

So even if Demidov reaches his ceiling, Celebrini's is much higher - in fact I think we are not talking enough about Celebrini has a potential generational player in the same value range has Bedard (he will be more useful than Bedard in the playoffs as he will win so many line to line confrontations like Barkov) - Bedard will fill the net like crazy, but will also be somewhat of a defensive liability. I think McKenna might be the real McDavid replacement skill-wise with a game close to Jack Hughes.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Yes absolutely, as a ceiling. Demidov is more powerful (fitness) than Kucherov while having a very similar IQ, shot, stick and agility as Kucherov. If he refines the skating just a bit, he will be something else.

More like P Kane to me. Demidov has to improve his one timer to be as effective as Kucherov. How many goals does Kucherov score with that deadly and accurate one timer? I don't think Demidov's shot is that accurate yet and I'm not talking about the one timer. He's shooting right side a lot and scoring a lot but I like Iggy's shot more. He's picking all different areas of the net. Iggy doesn't have a good one timer either though. It's difficult to develop at that high level. Game happens so fast.

We shouldn't be tied to comparing Demidov to another Russian. If that is the requirement, I would pick Datsyuk. The interesting part to the Russian forward stars is I will say 75% of them are north of 6'-0" and 200 lbs. Then you got guys like Kucherov and Datsyuk who are on the lighter side. So basically, Demidov falls in that 25% lighter but skilled/skater type.

So yeah, P Kane or Datysuk are my ceiling comparables

All good choices, of course I have my favourites but I’d feel good about all the players you mentioned at 5 except Eiserman, like the player but if we were selecting in the 9-12 range.

I don’t see a world where Lindstrom will bust unless his injuries consume him but I believe he will conquer those demons.

Iggy at 5 would make me very happy

Long few weeks coming. This draft has me both nervous and excited. We need to hit with this pick.

 

[jaffy27]

Long few weeks coming. This draft has me both nervous and excited. We need to hit with this pick.