Tampa pick is officailly locked in at 20.
Maybe I’m not clearly articulating here. Watching Vlassic this season it’s obvious he’s got a lot of talent and ability to be a good NHLer. Looking back on these past defensive prospects over the years, who among them we saw play had similar optics? Where you can easily tell from watching them they were going to be top 4 or better Dmen?
Olsen
Johns
Dahlbeck
Paliotta
Clendening
Fournier
Dahlstrom
Soderberg
Snuggerud
Carlsson
Krys
Mitchell
Jokiharju
Beaudin
Boqvist
Kaiser
Del Mastro
Allan
Rinzel
Korchinski
…looking back on it, Jokiharju probably had one of the better stretches in the big league here. The newest guys it’s hard to gauge much and I don’t watch minor league hockey at all. Korchinski looks like he belongs here for sure, I’d imagine with age and experience he’ll improve a ton.
All I’m trying to say is we’ve had a lot of “exciting” D prospects over the years but they haven’t amounted to much of anything and it was IMHO a common thing for posters to say “be patient, they’re young, look at Duncan Kieth!”. My argument is that when it comes to pro athletes you really can pretty much tell quickly if they’ve got what it takes or not. The skill is apparent. The decision making and visual comfort out on the ice is apparent. You can see them being effective and it’s clear as day they’re going to be full time NHLers.
We’ve got that with Vlassic for sure and probably Korchinski too, you can see it plain as day. KK is practically a baby out there, I’ll give him some more time but there’s seeds of him being a good NHLer in his game that are easily noticeable. Idon’t remember any of those other guys listed looking close to as good. I think people were just being hopeful and patient based on draft pedigree.
In their draft years, Jokiharju, Boqvist, Rinzel, and Korchinski all projected to have top 4 upside. Mitchell looked like it in his D+1 season. I guess Beaudin too although he was small, not a plus skater, and developing in a mediocre league so in retrospect we shouldn't have expected much.
We're now looking at Allan, EDM, Phillips, and Kaiser as guys that might get there. Although bottom pairing is probably more likely for all of them.
Can't speak for the guys drafted pre-2017 since I wasn't following prospects then.
But yeah I think for the most part you're right about knowing whether someone has it or not. I think cases like Vlasic are less common. Although big guys tend to take longer to develop so there's that aspect.