6.) There is no consensus in the public sphere about team building for the NHL draft
This is what makes the NHL draft so much fun in my eyes, but also turns off casual fans to the NHL draft. Imagine if the NFL draft was conducted after high school. Go look at the ESPN Top 300 or the 247 college football rankings for this year. Then compare them to the NFL draft order 3 years later. That’s essentially the disadvantage NHL scouts are working with when projecting three to five years out from a draft.
There are also very few universal rules to the NHL draft compared to the NFL draft. We know which positions in football you draft high, which ones you can extract value from, and have a general idea of how to grade drafts using somewhat universal team-building philosophical arguments. Outside of the consensus that no one can predict which goalies are going to be great, there are no such team-building philosophies in the NHL.
Over the last fourteen years, I have established my own set of cardinal rules. There are always exceptions to these rules, but they are as follows:
- Never trade up.
- The early 2nd round usually has 5-10 players who I love. It’s a great place to live in the draft.
- Don’t draft a defenseman who doesn’t have power-play potential in the first round.
- When debating players: always go with the one with the elite trait (if applicable).
- After round 1, the forwards who usually hit big are either: undersized, wingers, or European. They are usually some combination of the three.
- Late-round defensemen who hit are usually overagers who have played in a men’s league or the NCAA.
- Consistent, high-end save percentages work out better than size for goalies.