DEANYOUNGBLOOD17
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- May 10, 2011
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Speculation: 2024/25 Trade Rumours, Speculation etc Thread
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Buffdog
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- Feb 13, 2019
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That'll happen when you have the best goalie on the planetUmmm
Only Stat that shows why we are 3-0 this year.
The team that won the Jennings trophy last year has started the season with a 0.67 goals against after 3 wins with 1 shutout and 2 one goal game against.
2 goals against after 3 games.
People talk about it like it's a bad thing because it's not how they think we should win
"Top line HAS to win it's matchups", they'll say
Not much of a conspiracy theory honestly. You're talking about the only coach I've ever heard of who resigned mid-season. The reason given was that he couldn't reach the room.
Hard to lump any other coaches in. Bones retired as scheduled and idk if your 3rd is Noel or Arniel but neither seems relevant to the conversation as Scheif definitely didn't have any say in the locker room when Clod was here and Arniel has been coach for 3 games now.
tbcwpg
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- Jan 25, 2011
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Ummm
Only Stat that shows why we are 3-0 this year.
The team that won the Jennings trophy last year has started the season with a 0.67 goals against after 3 wins with 1 shutout and 2 one goal game against.
2 goals against after 3 games.
I actually see both sides of this argument.
I see why Buffdog, myself and others still like the 1st line with 81 and 55 despite what the advanced stats say.
I also see the argument that it's not shitting on Bambi and KFC to want to have them playing on seperate lines to see if we can get a bit better offensive balance and maybe have 2 lines that give up a little less.
At the end of the day, I accept that those 2 will play together, for whatever reason. They have obvious offensive chemistry so at least part of their game works to the Jets benefit.
The one thing that does baffle me is what happened to Mark Scheifele? Obviously I still love the guy but do you remember when he was a 200 foot player? What switch went off in his head that turned him into a guy who give 50% effort defensively? I think it might be too much ice time to be fair, but you deffo don't want a disgruntled Brighteyes loafing around the ice.
I see why Buffdog, myself and others still like the 1st line with 81 and 55 despite what the advanced stats say.
I also see the argument that it's not shitting on Bambi and KFC to want to have them playing on seperate lines to see if we can get a bit better offensive balance and maybe have 2 lines that give up a little less.
At the end of the day, I accept that those 2 will play together, for whatever reason. They have obvious offensive chemistry so at least part of their game works to the Jets benefit.
The one thing that does baffle me is what happened to Mark Scheifele? Obviously I still love the guy but do you remember when he was a 200 foot player? What switch went off in his head that turned him into a guy who give 50% effort defensively? I think it might be too much ice time to be fair, but you deffo don't want a disgruntled Brighteyes loafing around the ice.
i dont know about all 3, but i know one of the Jets media guys, either edmonds or wiebe said on 1290 in the 2019 season (i believe it was this year, since they went off-air shortly after) that scheifele and wheeler chose who they play with. i was surprised they admitted this on air when 1290, and those 2 notably go out their way to carry water & protect the Jets/tnse.
honestly wouldn't think it's different anymore that he chooses who he plays with.
connor-scheifele will likely player together from here on out. last season, this team was driven by the middle-6 to carry the bill at 5v5. maybe it's different this year who knows we're at game-3. so far,
1st line: -2
2nd line: 0
3rd: +3
4th: +1
alternative to your "ehlers only driving 2nd line", the Jets rated better as a top-6 overall in net goal differential when ehlers was on the the top line. if the opposite was true i could buy into that argument a bit more. & from an individual standpoint - connor had his best season primarily away from scheifele.
ie: middle-6 driving the Jets while the top line is around a marginal (other than 1 month)
maybe this is a plausible strategy? idk. maybe someone can show some other quality PO/successful teams that run a similar marginal top line
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Buffdog
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- Feb 13, 2019
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The narrative that schief is bad defensively is largely based on his xGF%
Yes, he accrued 62.46 xGA last season in 74 games. But Crosby ( who I don't think anyone would accuse of being bad defensively) had 61.77 xGA. The difference is that Crosby had 76.13 xGF to Schiefele's 53.15 xGF
So yes, if you want to improve his xGF% then he should reduce chances... but that's only one side of the equation. The real gap is the fact that he should be producing more offence at 5v5
Pretty much everywhere. Look at Edmonton and tell me that McDavid doesn't run the show there
Additionally, the way Scheifele and Connor produce offence is not by volume. They cycle the puck and look for high quality opportunities. It is debatable that the arbitrary value that is given to expected goals actually equals producing offence. There’s a reason why the way Adam Lowry produces offence results in more xG than the way Kyle Connor does.
- Jun 10, 2014
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At 5v5?
Really? You are going to talk about the last 2 games after 6 years of same old, same old?
Not to mention that it was Helle who won those last 2 games.
Comparing to the ENP line is setting the bar pretty low.
LOL it was not HELLY who won those last 2 games. Both those teams got very good efforts from their goalies as well.
I'm growing really weary of the whole our team is shit without Hellebuyck nonsense.
If the other teams goalies would have been mid we would have won both of them by several goals in regulation.
- Jun 10, 2014
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Joe Hallenback
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I don't think moving Ehlers to the 1st line and trying to play in 20+ minutes a night is magically going to make us a better team. Ehlers is frustratingly good to watch but I haven't seen him put up a long stretch where he is in that top 30 player in the league type,
Put it this way, If we lost Ehlers for a long stretch of time we are probably going to be ok but if we lose Schief I think we are in trouble.
Put it this way, If we lost Ehlers for a long stretch of time we are probably going to be ok but if we lose Schief I think we are in trouble.
I think some of the nuance is being lost in these discussions. The argument that Helley is stealing us games is more to show that our skaters weren't good enough. Helley is a part of the team and it's great we can rely on him (mostly) for locking it down and helping us win. Every team wishes they could have a goalie like him. He is a big part of our team success and we cannot discount this.
However, having your best skaters (who play the most minutes) lose their matchups is not a recipe for success... We have seen this the last several playoffs.
Our best skaters also showed up when it counted and got us our 3 wins, which was fantastic. Again, this is not your typical recipe for success and we should not be expecting to win in this fashion over an extended period of time.
We should be striving to have strong 5v5 play, which is the primary driver of success in the NHL.
All this being said, those games were highly entertaining and I'm not too worried.
However, having your best skaters (who play the most minutes) lose their matchups is not a recipe for success... We have seen this the last several playoffs.
Our best skaters also showed up when it counted and got us our 3 wins, which was fantastic. Again, this is not your typical recipe for success and we should not be expecting to win in this fashion over an extended period of time.
We should be striving to have strong 5v5 play, which is the primary driver of success in the NHL.
All this being said, those games were highly entertaining and I'm not too worried.
Buffdog
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There are a lot of assumptions here
First, it wasn't just our skaters that let us down in the past two playoffs. Helle was way off his regular season form. Had he stood on his head and we were outshot 48-18 and lost 1-0, I'd agree. But that wasn't even close to the case
As for best prediction of success... are you sure it's 5v5 play and not save percentage?
At the end of the day, I don't think.that the top end talent on this team is set up to go toe to toe with other teams best and with those matchups night in and night out
Instead, Chevy has built a team who will succeed based on depth and goaltending. He's playing the habd he's been dealt
of fwds with similar TOI as scheifele (1072 mins or 90% of scheifele's), he was 2nd worst out 87 fwds in xGA/60 which accounts for the missed gp. usually KC isn't far behind (ofc they play together lots). And this is on a team that was good defensively (11th best) vs a team like PIT (27th worst).
i don't think anyone thought crosby was great defensively last year, the stats didn't bear that out ie:
im not super worried about xGF b/c they are usually good finishers so perhaps lower quality shots have a good chance of going in (think laine). although, i do think scheifele should be more selfish & shooting more b/c of his lethal shot. so from an standpoint, that would raise his SOGs, Corsi, xGF etc. been saying this for years since he's been like a 15% shooter at 5v5 however at v low shot volume.
most years despite being 30-40 goal scorers they're marginal in terms of 5v5 +/-, asides from 1-month last year which drove essentially drove scheifele to a +14, the prior few seasons he was -3, 0, +2, and KC: 0, +1, -3, -2.... and that's with the best regular-season goaltender behind them.
just looking at last year; 40 goal scorers on teams with top-half team goaltending were
+15, +17, +15, +11, +27, +25
idk maybe someone has examples of SC winners or succesful PO teams of having a similar top-line in terms of goal-differential
im not sure why it's an inconceivable thought to some that the Jets top-6 may fair better from a net overall with scheifele and connor separated at 5v5 game-play. i think the Jets can have a good PP with both of them which is a completely diff. argument.
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i don't think a single person has said scheifele's importance to this team is lower than ehlers'. if we lost scheifele our top line C would be lowry who has never scored 40 pts in a season.
Buffdog
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I've said this before... I don't think that schief is a top centre in the league at this point in his career.of fwds with similar TOI as scheifele (1072 mins or 90% of scheifeles), he was 2nd worst out 87 fwds in xGA/60 which accounts for the missed gp. usually KC isn't far behind (ofc they play together lots). And this is on a team that was good defensively (11th best) vs a team like PIT (27th worst).
i don't think anyone thought crosby was great defensively last year, the stats didn't bear that out ie:
im not super worried about xGF b/c they are usually good finishers so perhaps lower quality shots have a good chance of going in (think laine). although, i do think scheifele should be more selfish & shooting more b/c of his lethal shot. so from an standpoint, that would raise his SOGs, Corsi, xGF etc. been saying this for years since he's been like a 15% shooter at 5v5 however at v low shot volume.
most years despite being 30-40 goal scorers they're marginal in terms of 5v5 +/-, asides from 1-month last year which drove essentially drove scheifele to a +14, the prior few seasons he was -3, 0, +2, and KC: 0, +1, -3, -2.... and that's with the best regular-season goaltender behind them.
just looking at last year; 40 goal scorers on teams with top-half team goaltending were
+15, +17, +15, +11, +27, +25
idk maybe someone has examples of SC winners or succesful PO teams of having a similar top-line in terms of goal-differential
And I don't think that this team has the topend talent to win a cup the way teams with top end talent do
Realistically I think chevy has sat down and looked at the hand he's been dealt. He has no Matthews, no McDavid, no Mackinnon, no Makar, no nothing lol
What he does have is a nice set of flawed but decent secondary pieces like Schief, Connor, Ehlers, Lowry, Perfetti, etc.
The one trump card he has is Helle
So he can sit down and say "OK, Helle is going to play 65 games a season. He's gonna save X number of goals above expected. Knowing that, we can afford to get outchanced by a certain margin and still be successful"
People will chime in to say "we need to maximize lines to blah blah blah.. " but if you stop to consider that the reason you have some specific pieces like Schief and Helle is because you give Schief some input into who he plays with, then you need to decide whether you'd rather have him and Connor on a sub-optimal 5v5 line while contributing on special teams, or not have them at all
TL/DR the team is designed to bend and not break with Helle as the backstop/equalizer. Success isn't determined by one line winning their 5v5 matchups
